RealGM

Posted: **Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:15 am**

I still don't see anyone offering Freddie much more then $20Mil per. He's a very good point guard but has struggles against teams with length in the playoffs and needs to improve his two point percentage. If he can develop a top level floater then he should be able to improve his efficiency scoring inside the paint.

Posted: **Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:41 am**

WaltFrazier wrote:
PoundTown wrote:
WaltFrazier wrote:When Fred plays with Kyle he is a good PG because they can share ballhandling/playmaking. Albeit too small a backcourt combo.

But Fred on a team as the only, main PG? He would be above average if that. Running a team is not his strength

Am I the onlY one who thinks the Lowry Freddy duo works uniquely well given their lack of height. Fred is where he needs to be hounding point guards and kyles only weakness on D is staying In front of very quick smaller guards. He is extremely effective guarding size, and can be kind of put on any player whose bread and butter is on the perimeter which nowadays is most players that aren’t playing the 5. They even box out a lot better than most backcourts. I’m good with the duo and they are both tough, smart, gritty 2 way guys with great leadership qualities and both win. Sometimes, I just feel like we need to add to those type of guys.

I wish either: Norm would improve a whole lot, or we could add a better Norm (ie a bigger 2 guard). Then play Fred with that bigger 2, and Kyle come off the bench as he gets older. Not sure how that dynamic would work, if Kyle could gracefully accept that role, but I think it would be great.

norm will be part of the jersey reveal so maybe the team doesn't have plans to move him for now.

Posted: **Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:36 am**

FVV's total fg% is .413. And some think he's a point guard good enough for a contender?

Posted: **Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:47 am**

TorontoRapsFan wrote:FVV's total fg% is .413. And some think he's a point guard good enough for a contender?

I know, eh? It's almost as if he's played 32 min per game and got MVP votes in an NBA Finals already.

Posted: **Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:49 am**

Fred is likely to command 20 to 23 Million tops. Defense and leadership skills doesn't pay as well as highlight reel material and offense, unless you're a team as desperate as the Knicks. The Knicks might push it to the 25-27 range but he's never going to play for Dolan on his own volition.

Posted: **Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:14 pm**

fbalmeida wrote:
TorontoRapsFan wrote:FVV's total fg% is .413. And some think he's a point guard good enough for a contender?

I know, eh? It's almost as if he's played 32 min per game and got MVP votes in an NBA Finals already.

You're too smart for me. Imagine if the game tightens up and he cant score around the rim as well, like during playoffs. But hey he got an MVP vote. Forget that he also averaged 11pts and shot .392 that year. Didn't start a single game btw. Or that he shot .400 this year in the playoffs.

The guy is good, scratching top half of the league in PGs. And he has good defence. But he isn't a young Rondo. Overall he's more on the level of Bledsoe.

Posted: **Fri Oct 16, 2020 2:46 pm**

This thread is straight out of the early 2000s. First start with ranking among a position, then evaluate guys based on FG%.

What happened to this place??

Posted: **Fri Oct 16, 2020 5:54 pm**

Jason Williams was a starting point guard for a championship team. What the hell is this "point guard for a title contender" definition mean? Bottom line is if the price is right, you bring him back. And we're crossing our fingers here hoping the price is right.

Posted: **Sat Oct 17, 2020 9:53 am**

vini_vidi_vici wrote:This thread is straight out of the early 2000s. First start with ranking among a position, then evaluate guys based on FG%.

What happened to this place??

I'd say FG% is pretty important for a PG. Being able to keep defences honest makes a big deal when it comes to what the pg can do with the ball and what plays can get started. Or any ball handler for that matter. FVV's saving grace is that he has good touch around the rim and beyond the arc.

Posted: **Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:37 pm**

TorontoRapsFan wrote:
vini_vidi_vici wrote:This thread is straight out of the early 2000s. First start with ranking among a position, then evaluate guys based on FG%.

What happened to this place??

I'd say FG% is pretty important for a PG. Being able to keep defences honest makes a big deal when it comes to what the pg can do with the ball and what plays can get started. Or any ball handler for that matter. FVV's saving grace is that he has good touch around the rim and beyond the arc.

Id say FG% is an antiquated way to evaluate players.

Posted: **Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:21 pm**

vini_vidi_vici wrote:This thread is straight out of the early 2000s. First start with ranking among a position, then evaluate guys based on FG%.

What happened to this place??

VVV how are you bud? You haven't been posting as much lately - I like your stat based threads. Keeping safe I hope.

Posted: **Sat Oct 17, 2020 1:38 pm**

Neither FVV or KLow are a SG. The 2 PG lineup is great as a 10-15 mpg change of pace look to give other teams things to think about and strategize for. With that said I don’t believe 25+ mpg of it is a winning formula. FVV needs his own team. We need to get and develop a future PG on better Cap timeline. We should work with Fred on Sign and trade for a starting level SG as NP’s durability is a concern. We can deal with C position by signing Serge and through draft / FA.
For me if we find the right big C or developmental PG we should draft them and then resolve other through FA.

Core:

KLow, NP, OG, PS, SI

Bench: TD2, RHJ, PMc, OB, DH, CB, PW MT MG say a nice goodbye, FVV sign and trade we need some value back.

Front office: back fill 1 C, 1 PG, 1 wing.

Posted: **Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:13 pm**

Kevin Willis wrote:
vini_vidi_vici wrote:This thread is straight out of the early 2000s. First start with ranking among a position, then evaluate guys based on FG%.

What happened to this place??

VVV how are you bud? You haven't been posting as much lately - I like your stat based threads. Keeping safe I hope.

I think given the situation (pandemic/etc..) its tough to say good, but I am safe thanks. Hope all is well with you and yours aswell.

I dont post as much, because I find I dont get as much out of it anymore. Its the same stuff over and over again, nothing really insightful like I used to get out of this place. Were talking about a volume 3PT shooter and his FG%, or some subjective analysis of where he ranks among "PGs", not tertiary creators or similar role players. Since youre looking for discourse, ill try.

FVV will be overpaid for next yr (saying anything beyond is tough, given the volatility of the cap), lets start there.

I want everyone to ask themselves a few questions.

1) Name all the "not overpaid" FA deals that are not generation talent/MLE/rookie scale signings?

2) Would you prefer an overpay (again relative to your random $$$/term, ppl never talk term for some reason), to letting the asset walk?

3) What asset could MU not manage to move (and likely get value from)??

Okay, this team is not rebuilding (yet), its going to try and score in '21 FA. Even with a signed FVV, we have enough flexibility (which means roster moves, perhaps even FVV) to sign a generational talent. Should it not succeed, we still maintain that flexibility/options. Retaining 26 yr olds with value, shouldnt even be a conversation.

So let talk FVV, not in terms of his status among PGs (I dont care about that), just the player. FVV is an elite 3+D as a floor.
- Among 80 players with >= 300 3PTAs last yr in RS, he was 25th in 3PT%. 3.2% high than league avg. Hes a career 39.3% shooter.
- Among 81 players with >= 200 3PTAs off C&S last yr in RS, he was 7th in 3PT%.

Defensively.
- Among 105 players who faced 600 DFGAs against, he was 14th in DFG differential.
- 1st in deflections per game in the whole NBA.
- T2nd in DEF loose balls recovered per game.
- 7th in contesting 3PTAs.
- 69th percentile vs PnR. 71st percentile vs SpotUps. Hes even in the 83rd percentile vs PostUps.

So we have no issues there. So lets expand his game offensively.
- Among 135 players with a USG% >= 21, hes 11th in ASTr.
- He was T10th in secondary ASTs per game.
- 19th in Potential ASTs.

So hes a 3+D who can create for others. But what about himself??
- 17.6% of his points came off FTs.
- 58.3% of his FGM were UnASTd.

Okay so he does create alot for himself, but most important, how does he influence the team??
- The teams NetRTG is +4.3 with him on the court.

Even if you wanna argue, well hes carried by the KL mins, the Raps are a +5.6 NET when KLs off and hes on (so even better without KL, they are +4.0 together). Even in the POs, the Raps were a NET positive both when playing with KL and without.

I could dig deeper and deeper but, does FVV have his warts? What tertiary option doesnt?? I worry about his scoring inside the 3PT line. This isnt a Demar situation, where your only strength is volume shooting (despite becoming a very good passer his last yr) on middling to bad efficiency. These guys (FVV/PS) have multiple tools, and its disingenuous to say well look at his FG% as a PG, or whatever and dismiss them.

If the argument then becomes, as KL regresses then FVV becomes a 2nd option, were screwed is moot. He can still likely be traded for value (again, see MUS previous deals), and its not FVV (or Siakams) fault they are miscast as a step higher option than they should be. Its also why were likely maintaining flexibility for a trade or '21 to make our splash.

Posted: **Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:14 pm**

vini_vidi_vici wrote:
Kevin Willis wrote:
vini_vidi_vici wrote:This thread is straight out of the early 2000s. First start with ranking among a position, then evaluate guys based on FG%.

What happened to this place??

VVV how are you bud? You haven't been posting as much lately - I like your stat based threads. Keeping safe I hope.

I think given the situation (pandemic/etc..) its tough to say good, but I am safe thanks. Hope all is well with you and yours aswell.

I dont post as much, because I find I dont get as much out of it anymore. Its the same stuff over and over again, nothing really insightful like I used to get out of this place. Were talking about a volume 3PT shooter and his FG%, or some subjective analysis of where he ranks among "PGs", not tertiary creators or similar role players. Since youre looking for discourse, ill try.

FVV will be overpaid for next yr (saying anything beyond is tough, given the volatility of the cap), lets start there.

I want everyone to ask themselves a few questions.

1) Name all the "not overpaid" FA deals that are not generation talent/MLE/rookie scale signings?

2) Would you prefer an overpay (again relative to your random $$$/term, ppl never talk term for some reason), to letting the asset walk?

3) What asset could MU not manage to move (and likely get value from)??

Okay, this team is not rebuilding (yet), its going to try and score in '21 FA. Even with a signed FVV, we have enough flexibility (which means roster moves, perhaps even FVV) to sign a generational talent. Should it not succeed, we still maintain that flexibility/options. Retaining 26 yr olds with value, shouldnt even be a conversation.

So let talk FVV, not in terms of his status among PGs (I dont care about that), just the player. FVV is an elite 3+D as a floor.
- Among 80 players with >= 300 3PTAs last yr in RS, he was 25th in 3PT%. 3.2% high than league avg. Hes a career 39.3% shooter.
- Among 81 players with >= 200 3PTAs off C&S last yr in RS, he was 7th in 3PT%.

Defensively.
- Among 105 players who faced 600 DFGAs against, he was 14th in DFG differential.
- 1st in deflections per game in the whole NBA.
- T2nd in DEF loose balls recovered per game.
- 7th in contesting 3PTAs.
- 69th percentile vs PnR. 71st percentile vs SpotUps. Hes even in the 83rd percentile vs PostUps.

So we have no issues there. So lets expand his game offensively.
- Among 135 players with a USG% >= 21, hes 11th in ASTr.
- He was T10th in secondary ASTs per game.
- 19th in Potential ASTs.

So hes a 3+D who can create for others. But what about himself??
- 17.6% of his points came off FTs.
- 58.3% of his FGM were UnASTd.

Okay so he does create alot for himself, but most important, how does he influence the team??
- The teams NetRTG is +4.3 with him on the court.

Even if you wanna argue, well hes carried by the KL mins, the Raps are a +5.6 NET when KLs off and hes on (so even better without KL, they are +4.0 together). Even in the POs, the Raps were a NET positive both when playing with KL and without.

I could dig deeper and deeper but, does FVV have his warts? What tertiary option doesnt?? I worry about his scoring inside the 3PT line. This isnt a Demar situation, where your only strength is volume shooting (despite becoming a very good passer his last yr) on middling to bad efficiency. These guys (FVV/PS) have multiple tools, and its disingenuous to say well look at his FG% as a PG, or whatever and dismiss them.

If the argument then becomes, as KL regresses then FVV becomes a 2nd option, were screwed is moot. He can still likely be traded for value (again, see MUS previous deals), and its not FVV (or Siakams) fault they are miscast as a step higher option than they should be. Its also why were likely maintaining flexibility for a trade or '21 to make our splash.

It's a good post. Almost all FA's get overpaid due to market demand. At least Fred is entering his prime, many FA's sign ridiculous deals after they turn 30. Fred is widely considered the best UFA on the market this year (Obv assumption AD will sign extension with Lakers).

Posted: **Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:41 pm**

I always find it funny the hubris of people parading and pontificating their views as fact as though their narrative is correct because it comes out of their mouths.

The same people who once defended Demar and said he would come good pretend like they never did and never made and bad prediction ever.

Fred is a great 3 point shooter who is a good defender for PGs but has little else to offer in terms of playmaking, or scoring inside the two point line.

You do of course like to have Fred on your team, he is a good player, but it’s the dollar value that you have to question for a player who lacks size, does have some injury problems, and seems to disappear as a 1-3 option against teams with size and length.

When Kawhi isn’t passing it to you for wide open looks, it becomes a lot harder.

And FG% is not a great way to look at it but TS definitely is and Fred was below average efficiency in back to back seasons, that includes the playoffs (which again we cannot forget he was useless against Orlando, Philly and half of Milwaukee).

With regard to his FMVP vote, Cedric Maxwell has the award and a Ray Allen miracle three saved a Danny Green from having his own, not just a vote.

Keep Fred but not at stupid money. Isiah Thomas was a much better player than Fred and look what happened.

Everything is not rainbows and sunshine’s. You keep Fred at bad money and in a few years you regret it because he has all the same weaknesses he has today. With the cap staying stagnant and maybe going down due to covid, 20+ is ludicrous.

Posted: **Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:01 pm**

vini_vidi_vici wrote:
TorontoRapsFan wrote:
vini_vidi_vici wrote:This thread is straight out of the early 2000s. First start with ranking among a position, then evaluate guys based on FG%.

What happened to this place??

I'd say FG% is pretty important for a PG. Being able to keep defences honest makes a big deal when it comes to what the pg can do with the ball and what plays can get started. Or any ball handler for that matter. FVV's saving grace is that he has good touch around the rim and beyond the arc.

Id say FG% is an antiquated way to evaluate players.

Sure if you bring out the stats you pull out. Thanks btw. But I can't agree with your view of a basic stat here. The way those stats are presented they make him sound like an all star. But even you mention him as a tertiary player. I said he's top half, but reading some of the things on this thread and FVV sounds like a hof. And I don't care who you are, a .400 shooting pg deserves some pause. If he didn't shoot the 3 as well as he does, he might not even be in the conversation for a starting pg position.

As for some of the stats you've brought up, I don't know enough to interpret them in a sure way. For example in defence I have to ask how much of those stats are based on team defensive scheme which I assume involves the rest of his teammates on the floor with him. When I look at the list you linked, the whole of Raptors starting 5 is in that page. So it's got to have some relation. I'm assuming a team that runs its scheme will with its pieces playing well tends to add a little more to what each player provides. So it's not something you take in a vacuum.

Posted: **Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:16 pm**

I would offer Fred a 5 year 85M contract with a PO and I would guess he accepts. Another team might offer him 3 years / 60M but he would get more guaranteed money from us. It would also make him more tradable for us near the deadline if we decide to go in another direction. He is not worth 20-25M a team will regret that and Fred will be in a bad situation that would make him look like a bad contract. He could go for a second max contract with us right in his prime if he performs well.

Posted: **Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:23 pm**

Steelo Green wrote:Some posters believe Fred is the best defensive PG in the NBA and a top 5-10 PG in the league so worth the money.

I think that is laughable and listed the following players who either you would take currently over Fred, or would have on your roster moving forward:

Steph
Kyle
Trae
Brogdon
Dame
Irving
Paul
Fox
Simmons
Walker
Lavine
Murray
Dragic
Sexton
DLo Russel
Smart
Mitchell
Ball
Graham
Morant
Dinwiddie
Doncic
Westbrook

Now some are arguable, I will agree, but the arguable ones are probably right around the same level of Fred.

Personally there are at least 15 guys who are surefire better than Fred (let's take away contract and just how good they are as players), and then the rest are young and you would take moving forward over Fred, or the guys right at the same level of Fred.

So RGM what say you? Where do you rank Fred? And if he is in that 15-20 range, do you pay him top 50 NBA money for the deepest position in the league?

Without reading your post I voted top 15. After reading it I have to say he's lucky to squeak into the top 20. wow there are a LOT of talented young PGs in the league. And I love Fred, he's a winner and a terrific defender for his size, but he also has real flaws, like his height and his streakiness and his trouble finishing. But still we should pay him because the 15-20 guys in the league who are better PGs than him are not being moved.

Posted: **Mon Oct 19, 2020 8:35 pm**

pr0gr4m wrote:I would offer Fred a 5 year 85M contract with a PO and I would guess he accepts. Another team might offer him 3 years / 60M but he would get more guaranteed money from us. It would also make him more tradable for us near the deadline if we decide to go in another direction. He is not worth 20-25M a team will regret that and Fred will be in a bad situation that would make him look like a bad contract. He could go for a second max contract with us right in his prime if he performs well.

is that even a thing - never heard anyone getting a 5 year non max contract.

Posted: **Mon Oct 19, 2020 9:29 pm**

LBJKB24MJ23 wrote:
pr0gr4m wrote:I would offer Fred a 5 year 85M contract with a PO and I would guess he accepts. Another team might offer him 3 years / 60M but he would get more guaranteed money from us. It would also make him more tradable for us near the deadline if we decide to go in another direction. He is not worth 20-25M a team will regret that and Fred will be in a bad situation that would make him look like a bad contract. He could go for a second max contract with us right in his prime if he performs well.

is that even a thing - never heard anyone getting a 5 year non max contract.

Not a thing.

RealGM

Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?

Re: Where would you rank Fred in terms of PG's in the league?