Did Zach Lowe identify some convincing points for being low on Raptors?

[tsherkin]

The problem is we didn't give him the key's soon enough. We made the "hard choice" harder.

I mean, the problem is that we tried in the first place. It was dumb as sin to try and force Scottie into a volume role. He's had minutes and touches the whole time. You started seeing more offensive responsibility by way of passing in his second season, and then we just fully committed to being insane in 2024.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

The problem is we didn't give him the key's soon enough. We made the "hard choice" harder.

I mean, the problem is that we tried in the first place. It was dumb as sin to try and force Scottie into a volume role. He's had minutes and touches the whole time. You started seeing more offensive responsibility by way of passing in his second season, and then we just fully committed to being insane in 2024.

Once he's the ROY, you kind of have to. The problem is they tried this "two timeline" garbage.

[tsherkin]

Once he's the ROY, you kind of have to.

That's dumb. I don't disagree in the sense that I'm sure that sort of flaccid reasoning went into it, but lots of guys win ROY. Mike Miller, Emeka Okafor, Tyreke Evans, MCW, Wiggins, Malcolm Brogdon, Stephon Castle... none of those guys would be any kind of good choice as a focal option. The mere fact of having won the award doesn't speak to the quality of player, nor to their competition, so using that as a measure for whether you do or don't full-send your offense through a player is just daft.

The problem is they tried this "two timeline" garbage.

That is ANOTHER problem, yes.

[TerryTate]

I see this team with "minimal" injuries throughout the year at a 41-49 win team.

The positives
Last year, there were so many close games without half of our starting lineup. With BI and IQ, I feel a lot of those games would be closed in our favour.
RJ isn't the Primary scorer/ball handler. We he can drive and sit in the corner for 3s (where is also his best %).
BI and RJ are both above average drivers (driving to the hoop). We should see a lot more outlet passes in our system now.
We have 2 possible 15-22 points scorers rejoining the lineup (IQ/BI) that are above average 3PT% players, which should help our overall spacing and hopefully overall shooting percentages.

Not sold on yet
Growth Scotty needs to "this and that" for the past 2 years. I haven't seen a huge evolution in his overall game in the past 2 years. Slightly better handles and 3pt shot, but nothing that screams he's gonna crossover someone or he's a threat from outside. Dick, I'm not really sold on either. He hasn't even become what he was in my mind projected as lower end Korver with a slightly better driving game. I've seen more growth from Oochai, Shead and JKW.

Holes
Kinda of concerned about our middle / F&C positions, our depth is not good. If someone like Poetl goes does for an extended time, it can definitely impact our season.

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

That's dumb. I don't disagree in the sense that I'm sure that sort of flaccid reasoning went into it, but lots of guys win ROY. Mike Miller, Emeka Okafor, Tyreke Evans, MCW, Wiggins, Malcolm Brogdon, Stephon Castle... none of those guys would be any kind of good choice as a focal option. The mere fact of having won the award doesn't speak to the quality of player, nor to their competition, so using that as a measure for whether you do or don't full-send your offense through a player is just daft.

It's better to find out "he's not him" on the rookie contract, rather then extend and pretend.

[tsherkin]

It's better to find out "he's not him" on the rookie contract, rather then extend and pretend.

It's better to understand that the player who wasn't projected as a primary scorer and who exhibits neither the skills nor the attitude, won't likely ever become that guy, and then not try to force it in the first place.

Scottie was always projected as a defender first, with limited scoring potential. We made the mistake of even trying.

[dhackett1565]

It's better to find out "he's not him" on the rookie contract, rather then extend and pretend.

It's better to understand that the player who wasn't projected as a primary scorer and who exhibits neither the skills nor the attitude, won't likely ever become that guy, and then not try to force it in the first place.

Scottie was always projected as a defender first, with limited scoring potential. We made the mistake of even trying.

Meh. He's not a shooter, but it made perfect sense to have him try to develop that, and if it ever clicks it will only ever help. Meanwhile, last year if you just ignore his 3 point shooting, his TS% was 56% inside the arc (2PAs and FTAs). Perfectly acceptable volume scoring efficiency, especially considering the context around him was a complete mess.

I see no reason to believe Scottie can't be a primary/secondary option scorer who leans to playmaking in the right environment, especially if he has scoring options that can shoot and playmake beside him like IQ and Ingram, allowing him to play to his strengths in a variety of actions.

[tsherkin]

Meh. He's not a shooter, but it made perfect sense to have him try to develop that,

Once we realized we were going nowhere in a given season, it made any kind of sense to try, I suppose, but in 2024? He took 220+ FGA in November, December and January. We still had OG and Pascal for most of that. We definitely shouldn't have been feeding him like that before the New Year (or in the first half of January), and he was bombing wicked free from beyond the arc during that time as well (especially in December), which was also a bad choice.

and if it ever clicks it will only ever help. Meanwhile, last year if you just ignore his 3 point shooting, his TS% was 56% inside the arc (2PAs and FTAs). Perfectly acceptable volume scoring efficiency, especially considering the context around him was a complete mess.

Not really, no. That's about 1.5% worse than league average on 12 FGA/g, with pretty mediocre rim pressure and of course him being useless past about 15 feet. I wouldn't call that "perfectly acceptable" at all.

I see no reason to believe Scottie can't be a primary/secondary option scorer who leans to playmaking in the right environment,

Honestly, I can't fathom a situation where a good team would want to run the offense through him. He blows as a scorer, and that's a major impediment. As a second option, he needs to be league-average-ish in efficiency, and he's proven pretty consistently that he doesn't have the tools to that, and that he can't float any kind of meaningful volume.

Like, it's taking some serious mind-bending to get behind the notion that he can be a not-crap scorer, let alone a viable first option. Remember, he was dead-last among like 61 guys scoring 19+ ppg last year in efficiency. He was brutal. And that was fairly similar to his efficiency in 2023. And he's been substantially below league-average 2P% for three years running, and he can't shoot from 3. His skill set doesn't match your optimism, nor does the arc of his career to date. The most encouraging thing we've seen is that he's developed a bit of a low-volume middie... but he struggles to get to the rim, isn't an elite finisher there and doesn't have elite athletic tools. This does not augur well for a future as a substantive scoring weapon.

Guys like Scottie very rarely turn into the kind of weapon you WANT to be deploying in volume. And his playmaking will only ever be so valuable if he can't fix that, particularly because he's not a strong threat to create pressure at the rim.

This vision of Scottie becoming "that guy" are very, very weird to me, because he lacks basically any of the things which eventually allowed other slow-burn guys to develop into anything more than what they were over their first 4 or 5 seasons.

[TheGeneral99]

It's better to find out "he's not him" on the rookie contract, rather then extend and pretend.

It's better to understand that the player who wasn't projected as a primary scorer and who exhibits neither the skills nor the attitude, won't likely ever become that guy, and then not try to force it in the first place.

Scottie was always projected as a defender first, with limited scoring potential. We made the mistake of even trying.

I think the issue was that Scottie surprised everyone and was ahead of schedule in terms of his offense in his rookie year, which in turn, raised expectations. Most thought when we drafted him that he was a project offensively who become a Draymond type player, but he shattered that almost immediately.

He averaged 15ppg on solid efficiency as a rookie and his 30% from 3 was a pleasant surprise for someone who was expected to be very raw offensively. He also did this on a playoff caliber team.

In addition, he showed some flashes of rising in big games like his 28 point game against KD in Brooklyn and then going toe to toe with Lebron scoring 31 points in a close OT game.

In the playoffs he also looked solid - he had 15, 10 and 8 on 4/6 shooting in game 1, 12, 8 and 4 on 5/10 shooting in game 3 and and 18, 7 and 3 in game 6...despite getting hurt mid-series.

So you may be right, but he's shown flashes of being very good offensively and in year 3 his 20ppg on good efficiency and 34% from 3 made many think he was actually making a leap. In December 2023 he averaged 24, 10 and 6 on 52%fg and 40% from 3, with a bunch of big scoring games.

With him being just 23 years old, I wouldn't say we made the mistake of even trying as the jury is not out yet. You could be right, but also your opinion may be premature. I guess we'll see.

[YogurtProducer]

It's a comp. Look at how OKC handles similar assets. They don't get trapped over paying mid tier players.

Very easy to move guys like that when you've already got Shai to lean on. And Chet. And Jalen Williams. And they got a 2x All-Defensive Team player back in return for him.

The problem is we didn't give him the key's soon enough. We made the "hard choice" harder.

The roller blading offseason doesn't sell me on this long term.

Not sure how you could have watched Barnes the last 2 seasons and somehow conclude we should’ve made him a focal point earlier if anything; the last 2 seasons has just validated the camp that was saying “Scottie doesn’t really deserve an increased offensive role” back when we still had FVV/Siakam ahead of him.

Also, I don’t know what you mean by how OKC handles similar assets. They sold a former 6th pick for a bench player. That was a colossal failure of an asset in the end, even if it did end up well.

You can’t just point to OKC without also doing pointing out some serious context. They were able to make moves like selling Giddey for cheap due to the PG13 trade. Guess what? We never had the opportunity to do something like that, or we would have.

[YogurtProducer]

That's dumb. I don't disagree in the sense that I'm sure that sort of flaccid reasoning went into it, but lots of guys win ROY. Mike Miller, Emeka Okafor, Tyreke Evans, MCW, Wiggins, Malcolm Brogdon, Stephon Castle... none of those guys would be any kind of good choice as a focal option. The mere fact of having won the award doesn't speak to the quality of player, nor to their competition, so using that as a measure for whether you do or don't full-send your offense through a player is just daft.

It's better to find out "he's not him" on the rookie contract, rather then extend and pretend.

Scottie still has value even if it’s not a main offensive cog.

What you want to do is endlessly rebuild. Trading away guys like Scottie in year 3 or 4 is **** insane unless you’re getting back really good win now talent (aka, Giddey for Caruso) on a win now team.

[tsherkin]

I think the issue was that Scottie surprised everyone and was ahead of schedule in terms of his offense in his rookie year, which in turn, raised expectations.

He averaged 15ppg on solid efficiency as a rookie and his 30% from 3 was a pleasant surprise for someone who was expected to be very raw offensively.

I don't think either of those things are true. For one, 30% sucks ass. That isn't a "pleasant surprise" of any sort. That's a player who flatly can't shoot the 3. For another, Barnes was below league-average TS% as a rookie (-1.4% rTS) on 12.6 FGA/g.... 5th on the team. And again, was incompetent past 10 feet. None of that was good, and none of it was particularly "ahead of schedule." It lined up nicely with the idea that he wasn't a competent scoring threat, didn't have any range and was better as a defensive roleplayer.

He also showed some flashes of rising in big games like his 28 point game against KD and Brooklyn and then going toe to toe with Lebron scoring 31 points in a close OT game.

Most players eventually have a good game. Gerald Green, who only posted 4 seasons of double-digit scoring, once had a 41-point game. Hell, Ben Wallace scored 20+ 3 or 4 times in his career, and he was about as useless as it gets on anything other than a putback or a spoon-fed dunk.

[tsherkin]

Scottie still has value even if it’s not a main offensive cog.

100%.

For us, the mistake is that we keep trying to make him something he's not, instead of focusing on where he excels. He's a strong rebounder for his size. He's a very good defender. He's got some passing ability, which is nice. He just isn't a good scorer. He isn't even a particularly good low-volume scorer, which is kind of worse, really. But he has loads of value to us if we can find a way to put a crapload of shooters around and let him just focus on D, for sure.

[TheGeneral99]

I think the issue was that Scottie surprised everyone and was ahead of schedule in terms of his offense in his rookie year, which in turn, raised expectations.

He averaged 15ppg on solid efficiency as a rookie and his 30% from 3 was a pleasant surprise for someone who was expected to be very raw offensively.

I don't think either of those things are true. For one, 30% sucks ass. That isn't a "pleasant surprise" of any sort. That's a player who flatly can't shoot the 3. For another, Barnes was below league-average TS% as a rookie (-1.4% rTS) on 12.6 FGA/g.... 5th on the team. And again, was incompetent past 10 feet. None of that was good, and none of it was particularly "ahead of schedule." It lined up nicely with the idea that he wasn't a competent scoring threat, didn't have any range and was better as a defensive roleplayer.

He also showed some flashes of rising in big games like his 28 point game against KD and Brooklyn and then going toe to toe with Lebron scoring 31 points in a close OT game.

Most players eventually have a good game. Gerald Green, who only posted 4 seasons of double-digit scoring, once had a 41-point game. Hell, Ben Wallace scored 20+ 3 or 4 times in his career, and he was about as useless as it gets on anything other than a putback or a spoon-fed dunk.

30% doesn't suck ass for a guy who people thought couldn't shoot when we drafted him and it wasn't like he wasn't shooting, he had 200 attempts.

Gerald Green in his first 6 seasons averaged 6ppg on horrible shooting.

Ben Wallace never averaged over 10ppg.

Scottie as a rookie averaged 15ppg on 49%fg.

Bad comparisons in my opinion. Scottie averaged 20ppg on 48%fg and 34%3fg at just 21 years old...that's not insignificant.

[tsherkin]

30% doesn't suck ass for a guy who people thought couldn't shoot when we drafted him and it wasn't like he wasn't shooting, he had 200 attempts.

Yes, it does. It explicitly means that he shot about as well as guys everyone knows can't shoot for beans, as it happens. That's terrible shooting.

Gerald Green in his first 6 seasons averaged 6ppg on horrible shooting.

Ben Wallace never averaged over 10ppg.

Yes, that was precisely my point. They were terrible players, and they had good games as well. Pointing to 2 single-game performances is about as meaningless as it gets.

Scottie was better than both, but those individual performances you mentioned have no substance to them in this conversation.

[Ell Curry]

I don’t see the plan, I think we’re pretty locked in to a low ceiling mehburger. I really don’t see any design unfolding, we feel like a placeholder that teams that might matter will play against. I don’t see anything we’ll be particularly good at, nor do I see us competing for lottery balls. As for things like ‘team spirit’, underrated, or w/e, find me a team whose fans don’t think that about their team when their team is neither very good or very bad. Feels very..say it with me…treadmill.

Otoh I would probably have been even more pessimistic about the Jays, so…

It really wasn't that long ago that people said the same thing about the Pacers and Cavs.

They traded for elite offensive players to change their fate.

There's a small chance Quickley becomes that guy, he can shoot and his defence isn't bad for a modern starting PG, but at least one of his passing/creativity/finishing inside would have to make a dramatic leap forward for him to pull a Lowry/Kemba/Dragic/Oladipo/Cassell/Billups and break out at 25 or older. It's hard to see because he's not a special athlete like Oladipo or physical like Billups or Lowry or creative/herky jerky as Dragic but Cassell and Kemba offer hope as comps.

Or there's a trade like the Cavs or Pacers made for their offensive centerpiece.

Cavs - Markannen + Sexton + Agbaji + 2 firsts + 3 swaps
Pacers - Sabonis.

If - next summer or deadline - we can turn RJ's expiring + Murray-Boyles + Gradey + 3 firsts + 2 Swaps (Markannen at the time still > RJ by a swap to a first I'd say, for shooting big upside) into a star, or Scottie Barnes straight up for an offensive star, then yeah we'll be in decent shape.

Plausible targets seem like maybe:

-Dylan Harper or Castle (if they don't want to move Fox) from the Spurs glut of guards (Castle was not efficient and it's not clear he can shoot but 72% from the line at age 20 and a Quickley-Castle backcourt looks like a nice fit)

-Jaden Ivey, good athlete, shot well last year and they had success without him so maybe they'd move him for the right package?

-Lamelo, classic always injured star and kind of an idiot, but a walking paint touch who can shoot and pass gives us an entry into a top 18 offense, which we don't have right now (the entire top 18 had an offensive star who bends defences or sacrificed defence with a passing skilled center in the form of Sengun and Sabonis, which for us would mean Barnes starting at C, or possibly Murray-Boyles if he truly is the 2nd best underclassman in the draft after Flagg like his BPM showed)

-Garland, probably would have to involve a Quickley deal, but if they don't make a conference finals they gotta go after some wings at the expense of Garland and/or Allen

-McCain or Maxey, seems unlikely they get deal, but McCain's efficiency was pretty great as a rookie and if Edgecombe is at the 2, it might make sense for them to trade one of the smaller guards for a forward or big, as Embiid and Paul George are probably cooked.

-Reed Sheppard, seems really unlikely, but KD is 37 and if they're a title contender, trading Sheppard + Finney-Smith for Quickley could be intriguing for them:

Sengun-Adams
Jabari-Eason
KD-Eason
Amen-Quickley
Quickley-VanVleet

is a pretty damn great 8 man rotation with guys like Capela, Aaron Holliday and Tate probably capable of providing 10 minutes a night without killing you.

For us, we'd be hoping Sheppard, like Billups, can turn his shooting and good hands into being a star guard.

-Jalen Green, the stats, passing and defence aren't there, but he does have talent and might be real cheap.

-Cam Thomas, similar to Green but he's a better scorer and probably even more selfish. But some guys mature late or can be reached by a different coach/organization.

That was all I could come up with for guards who aren't stars or are but might be movable and you could see becoming the kind of offensive player we just don't have on the roster. Ingram can score, but he's not going to bend a defence unless he's a very late bloomer himself and can completely change where he gets his shot attempts from (which I think is a function of his lack of strength and speed and not low b-ball IQ), and stays healthy.

[TheGeneral99]

30% doesn't suck ass for a guy who people thought couldn't shoot when we drafted him and it wasn't like he wasn't shooting, he had 200 attempts.

Yes, it does. It explicitly means that he shot about as well as guys everyone knows can't shoot for beans, as it happens. That's terrible shooting.

Gerald Green in his first 6 seasons averaged 6ppg on horrible shooting.

Ben Wallace never averaged over 10ppg.

Yes, that was precisely my point. They were terrible players, and they had good games as well. Pointing to 2 single-game performances is about as meaningless as it gets.

Scottie was better than both, but those individual performances you mentioned have no substance to them in this conversation.

It was more than two single game performances, I just picked the notable ones.

[tsherkin]

It was more than two single game performances, I just picked the notable ones.

Forest for the trees, man. A couple of nice games compared to four years of being a terrible choice to shoot as much as he does; which do you weigh more strongly? He had a rough rookie season; everyone sane was willing to cut him a LITTLE slack because it was his first year and he was known to be raw, but like... he showed that he was raw. And had no range at all. And that on the odd occasion when his jumper was falling, he looked like a very different player. Because a J can do that in a single game. You get on a heater, you're a very different beast than when you're cold or otherwise known to just blow if you get above the bottom of the circle.

[TheGeneral99]

It was more than two single game performances, I just picked the notable ones.

Forest for the trees, man. A couple of nice games compared to four years of being a terrible choice to shoot as much as he does; which do you weigh more strongly? He had a rough rookie season; everyone sane was willing to cut him a LITTLE slack because it was his first year and he was known to be raw, but like... he showed that he was raw. And had no range at all. And that on the odd occasion when his jumper was falling, he looked like a very different player. Because a J can do that in a single game. You get on a heater, you're a very different beast than when you're cold or otherwise known to just blow if you get above the bottom of the circle.

I was literally talking about the expectations that came from a surprising year 1.

And then also the slack he got after a very good year 3 where it seemed he took the leap, improved his shooting, made the all-star team etc.

Obviously year 2 and 4 were disappointing and I would agree with you there.

[dhackett1565]

Meh. He's not a shooter, but it made perfect sense to have him try to develop that,

Once we realized we were going nowhere in a given season, it made any kind of sense to try, I suppose, but in 2024? He took 220+ FGA in November, December and January. We still had OG and Pascal for most of that. We definitely shouldn't have been feeding him like that before the New Year (or in the first half of January), and he was bombing wicked free from beyond the arc during that time as well (especially in December), which was also a bad choice.

and if it ever clicks it will only ever help. Meanwhile, last year if you just ignore his 3 point shooting, his TS% was 56% inside the arc (2PAs and FTAs). Perfectly acceptable volume scoring efficiency, especially considering the context around him was a complete mess.

Not really, no. That's about 1.5% worse than league average on 12 FGA/g, with pretty mediocre rim pressure and of course him being useless past about 15 feet. I wouldn't call that "perfectly acceptable" at all.

I see no reason to believe Scottie can't be a primary/secondary option scorer who leans to playmaking in the right environment,

Honestly, I can't fathom a situation where a good team would want to run the offense through him. He blows as a scorer, and that's a major impediment. As a second option, he needs to be league-average-ish in efficiency, and he's proven pretty consistently that he doesn't have the tools to that, and that he can't float any kind of meaningful volume.

He blows as a scorer when he has no spacing around him and is playing with a G-league roster around him and is also in and out of the lineup with his own injuries and is being asked to expand his game beyond his comfort zone in an already-lost season. That's the main outcome I get from last year. Taking any of that as concrete evidence of his ceiling is silly.

We're literally one season removed from an all-star season where he scored 20 points on good efficiency. And even then the team context around him wasn't great.

He'll never be a 30 PPG guy at 60% TS%. But that's no reason to think that means he can't be one of the key drivers of an excellent offence.