OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread

[ATLTimekeeper]

The rule at TDSB is that if you are sick and want to returb to school...you need to provide a negative covid test or stay away from school for 14 days...you can question and scrutinize every number from anywhere to fit your own reality but these are the numbers available. At least from my perspective it is reasonably accurate and I see the screening and rules being adhered to.

The province changed the criteria almost immediately with some language about parents knowing best and taking runny noses off the list. This was also one of the most common symptoms for covid in kids, iirc. I know of one family here who were discouraged by the health department to get a test when there was a symptomatic child AND multiple covid cases in the school. I think those numbers are likely higher. There's a lot of people that will just not bother getting the test because it's a hassle, too. If your kid is diagnosed with covid and has to be home for 14 days, that means someone has to be home to watch them for those school days and that's missed work. I imagine it's better to just pray it's a cold and scoot them back as soon as the symptoms are gone.

Anyway, I don't really see this as a wrestling match between what should be opened or closed. The government seems to be treating it like a leaky tap that you just need to fiddle with. They can't trace half the cases, and that's going to result in a lot of angry people no matter what they do.

[KrazyP]

"The data" actually agrees with my statement that the virus spreads when a bunch of people are crowded together indoors. That isn't in dispute.

Secondly, did you even read the article? This, in particular, seems like a problem!

This is the point:


This is what you are basing your "let's open up a bunch of indoor spaces where people can gather together" plan on?

The argument was that bars, restaurants, and gyms were the source of outbreaks hence why they were forced to close.

In Peel/York/Toronto/Ottawa, the cases that have stemmed from these clusters is miniscule. Only in Toronto bars/restaurants could one argue that the stats presented. In Peel/York/Ottawa the data doesn't support the government's hypothesis.

Schools and daycares make up the most cases for every region and has been argued by many to be the main source since what changed from August to September?

The government cant simply shut everything down so they have the tough task of determining whats important and whats not.

Schools and daycares are more important to our society than bars and gyms.

Also the variables involved in the pace of the spread are widespread and complex. You cant simply point to ONE variable like schools and say thats the culprit. Something like weather does play a factor.....more sun/warmer weather = vitamin D = stronger immune systems. Also, theres a possibility the virus itself gets weakened in warmer climates. I'd also argue, peoples attitude towards the virus from the Spring-to-Summer-to-Fall were constantly changing.

[JJWong17]

Some people like to be all doom & gloom while indulging in the fear mongering, but I prefer to focus on the positives....in Ontario even though positive cases are high (party due to increased amount of testing available) the amount of daily deaths is much lower than the 1st wave in April...

less than 10 deaths per day in Ontario for the majority of the last 4 months, and even though I don't have the statistic I can confidently say that it's likely the majority of those deaths are people over the age of 60 who were already immunocompromised

another conclusion you can draw from this is that as time has passed doctors & nurses in hospitals have learned how to better handle and treat patients with the virus.

I still believe that schools should've been opened up strictly online for at least 6-8 months...but of course this wasn't possible due to politics and parents needing schools to function as daycares

Also, our positivity rate has been trending downward throughout the week. It was a bit scary at 3.4% on Tues but each day since has been lower; 2.8, 2.6, 2.2. It increased a bit today to 2.4 but hopefully it will start to move back down again or at least stay level. Toronto has just completed their third week of the modified lockdown so if we're lucky, we'll start to see some signs of recovery towards the end of this week

[ItsDanger]

Real 2nd wave will begin in December despite what media tells you. Peak would be around Feb-March. That is typical coronavirus season.

[ItsDanger]

For those interested, full tweet is well worth the read.

Read on Twitter

[NinjaBro]

Guys, absolutely mandatory reading. It's a graphical representation of how covid is transmitted in a bar, a room (with family), and classroom. It's no wonder why cases all around the world is up, and up sharply.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

[mtcan]

Guys, absolutely mandatory reading. It's a graphical representation of how covid is transmitted in a bar, a room (with family), and classroom. It's no wonder why cases all around the world is up, and up sharply.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

This illustrates the importance of mandatory masking.

[Wo1verine]

Sounds like bars, restaurants and gyms will be opening in Ottawa early November people are getting tired of the non sense and I don’t blame them.

2% of outbreaks is a **** joke and doesn’t warrant indoor closure.

[refshateRaps]

Sounds like bars, restaurants and gyms will be opening in Ottawa early November people are getting tired of the non sense and I don’t blame them.

2% of outbreaks is a **** joke and doesn’t warrant indoor closure.

People are legit losing their livelihoods and far too many are not being allowed to easily exercise in the colder weather already right now. The impact on mental & physical health here will end up far greater then this virus if our leaders they dont take a more intelligent approach next next month

[hsb]

Sounds like bars, restaurants and gyms will be opening in Ottawa early November people are getting tired of the non sense and I don’t blame them.

2% of outbreaks is a **** joke and doesn’t warrant indoor closure.

People are legit losing their livelihoods and far too many are not being allowed to easily exercise in the colder weather already right now. The impact on mental & physical health here will end up far greater then this virus if our leaders they dont take a more intelligent approach next next month

Any data on mental and physical well being during the pandemic? It's been over 6 months now, I wonder if there is any data regarding this because the way people frame it is always projecting towards the future.

[refshateRaps]

Sounds like bars, restaurants and gyms will be opening in Ottawa early November people are getting tired of the non sense and I don’t blame them.

2% of outbreaks is a **** joke and doesn’t warrant indoor closure.

People are legit losing their livelihoods and far too many are not being allowed to easily exercise in the colder weather already right now. The impact on mental & physical health here will end up far greater then this virus if our leaders they dont take a more intelligent approach next next month

Any data on mental and physical well being during the pandemic? It's been over 6 months now, I wonder if there is any data regarding this because the way people frame it is always projecting towards the future.

There is vast amounts of data showing the COVID escalation in mental illness, stress, and lack of exercise. Along with an abundance of data showing the major long term health problems associated with elevated stress, anxiety, depression and limited physical exercise

Quick google search have me this right away https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6932a1.htm

Elevated levels of adverse mental health conditions, substance use, and suicidal ideation were reported by adults in the United States in June 2020. The prevalence of symptoms of anxiety disorder was approximately three times those reported in the second quarter of 2019

[Basketball_Jones]

Guys, absolutely mandatory reading. It's a graphical representation of how covid is transmitted in a bar, a room (with family), and classroom. It's no wonder why cases all around the world is up, and up sharply.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

Looks like this was the data that needed to be wide spread to all the businesses that got shut down. Makes sense now. Though the science here isn’t quiet jiving with the numbers maybe, but I’ll go with the science. Im not staying in one space with random people for any longer then an hour

[NinjaBro]

Guys, absolutely mandatory reading. It's a graphical representation of how covid is transmitted in a bar, a room (with family), and classroom. It's no wonder why cases all around the world is up, and up sharply.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

Looks like this was the data that needed to be wide spread to all the businesses that got shut down. Makes sense now. Though the science here isn’t quiet jiving with the numbers maybe, but I’ll go with the science. Im not staying in one space with random people for any longer then an hour

The study is in line with what our health minister here in BC has been saying early on during the pandemic. What they're finding is that people are not contracting the virus from "fleeting encounters". You put on a mask and go to the grocery store, shop for a few minutes and you'll be fine. You ride on public transit where everyone is wearing a mask, you'll also be fine because in public transit virtually no one is talking. You walk on the street and walk past someone you'll also be fine. In each of these cases you're not exposed to a high viral load over a long period of time (4 hrs).

Where people are getting the virus is from bars and nightclubs where there's loud music and people are shouting and in close contact with each other for extended amount of time. Same goes for family gatherings, parties, churches where there is singing, also from schools where children are exposed to each other. These are where the majority of all the new cases are coming from. It's no surprise that after months of quarantine fatigue, people are seeking out contact with their loved ones, going to parties (can't blame them), is the reason why this virus is going to be with us for a long long time until a vaccine is found.

[Caboclo]

Read on Twitter

[NBA Sheady]

Guys, absolutely mandatory reading. It's a graphical representation of how covid is transmitted in a bar, a room (with family), and classroom. It's no wonder why cases all around the world is up, and up sharply.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

I was tempted to post this but we still don't have any conclusive evidence that this virus can aerosolize.

[Westside Gunn]

Sounds like bars, restaurants and gyms will be opening in Ottawa early November people are getting tired of the non sense and I don’t blame them.

2% of outbreaks is a **** joke and doesn’t warrant indoor closure.

People are legit losing their livelihoods and far too many are not being allowed to easily exercise in the colder weather already right now. The impact on mental & physical health here will end up far greater then this virus if our leaders they dont take a more intelligent approach next next month

We gotta adapt and improvise. If its too cold outside dress warm. I bought base layers neck warmers gloves balaclavas for my daily running. At first it was hard but now im good.

If you cant go outside do tae bo at home . Theres P90x and hundreds of its types now. Free on youtube.

You have absolutely no idea on how filthy gyms are, even before the corona. People are fockin dirty.

And if you gotta lift, you gotta wait or buy your own equipment.

[NinjaBro]

Guys, absolutely mandatory reading. It's a graphical representation of how covid is transmitted in a bar, a room (with family), and classroom. It's no wonder why cases all around the world is up, and up sharply.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

I was tempted to post this but we still don't have any conclusive evidence that this virus can aerosolize.

Proving the virus can aerosolize can be rather difficult. What we do know is that virtually all of these super spreader events happened at these indoor events. Here in BC we had a super spreader event at a dental conference early in the pandemic that made up the majority of our cases in the beginning. High concentration of people who are conversing, singing, shouting over a prolonged period of time is what's transmitting the virus. Then you take things like weddings where people are surrounded by family and friends who will not adhere to social distancing rules/mask wearing for at least that day. We're seeing a pattern here.

[mtcan]

Sounds like bars, restaurants and gyms will be opening in Ottawa early November people are getting tired of the non sense and I don’t blame them.

2% of outbreaks is a **** joke and doesn’t warrant indoor closure.

People are legit losing their livelihoods and far too many are not being allowed to easily exercise in the colder weather already right now. The impact on mental & physical health here will end up far greater then this virus if our leaders they dont take a more intelligent approach next next month

We gotta adapt and improvise. If its too cold outside dress warm. I bought base layers neck warmers gloves balaclavas for my daily running. At first it was hard but now im good.

If you cant go outside do tae bo at home . Theres P90x and hundreds of its types now. Free on youtube.

You have absolutely no idea on how filthy gyms are, even before the corona. People are fockin dirty.

And if you gotta lift, you gotta wait or buy your own equipment.

As I had said before...there are lots of ways to get your exercise without stepping foot inside a gym. Gym owners could support their patrons by providing coaching and fitness classes virtually...and that would justify at least some of the membership fees.

[Caboclo]

Read on Twitter

948 today

[NBA Sheady]

Guys, absolutely mandatory reading. It's a graphical representation of how covid is transmitted in a bar, a room (with family), and classroom. It's no wonder why cases all around the world is up, and up sharply.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html

I was tempted to post this but we still don't have any conclusive evidence that this virus can aerosolize.

Proving the virus can aerosolize can be rather difficult. What we do know is that virtually all of these super spreader events happened at these indoor events. Here in BC we had a super spreader event at a dental conference early in the pandemic that made up the majority of our cases in the beginning. High concentration of people who are conversing, singing, shouting over a prolonged period of time is what's transmitting the virus. Then you take things like weddings where people are surrounded by family and friends who will not adhere to social distancing rules/mask wearing for at least that day. We're seeing a pattern here.

Yeah it really must be difficult. PubMed is indexing 3,400 COVID-related studies and the best I can find re: aerosolization is "we're pretty sure it can aerosolize".

I'm tempted to look at aerosolization studies from other viruses etc to see what the process is.

Yesterday I went to Extra Burger on Dundas. The kitchen crew have their masks off and then put them on once I enter. Which is largely ineffectual if the virus can aerosolize. I mean really it would change all of our policies. 6 feet is not nearly enough. Anything indoor is basically out of the question if people aren't wearing masks. RIP Restaurants.