2023 Draft Discussion Part III

[ItsDanger]

You'd hope the front office realizes you need half court shot creation at this point. That's the NBA today, stop trying to game the system and outsmart everyone. Come playoffs, it fails miserably.

[alpngso]

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[DreamTeam09]

Miller should definitely not be our target in the lottery. He doesn't have the self creation that we desire. I'm shocked he's as fluid as he is right now.

Grady Dick / Hendricks / George / J.Walker are actually in play now

[Psubs]

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Doesn't his shooting look like Caitlin Clark out there, with the quick release and deep range?

[OakleyDokely]

Bulls and OKC win - 11th pick (1.8% #1 / 2.0% #2 / 2.2% #3 / 2.5% #4)
One of Bulls / OKC win - 12th pick (1.7% #1 / 1.9% #2 / 2.1 #3 / 2.4% #4)
Bulls and OKC lose - 13th pick (1% #1 / 1.1% #2 / 1.2% #3 / 1.4% #4)

[ATLTimekeeper]

That's why you want to see efficiency no matter the FGA, OG with a .620 efg in college.

Meanwhile people want to convince you that every big name in college like Kyle Filipowski who had a .481 efg as a center could be the next kristaps porzingis

I see what you are saying about the stats, but I wonder if that also has to do with the time when people played. This is college ball before kids were incentivized to stay. OG and Pascal are both great college players, but maybe the talent level was also a bit lower.

One area that I think isn't discussed enough is the impact of the NIL since is was brought in, because my theory is that it has in part increased parity in the NCAA.

There are fewer bad teams to build up your numbers on and overall there are better defenses because of the roster consistency. NIL plays a part because it incentivizes players to stay in college longer and that helps programs become more competitive.

Miami had a senior program and they nearly won a title. San Diego State is another example. Just look at the whole tournament and you see how much parity there is in the NCAA.

Teams with one and done stars often struggled because it is a lot to get players to learn the system and perform well. Not saying that this draft doesn't have flaws, but the numbers don't always tell the whole story about the player.

I've thought about that a little and I estimate the max effect is .5bpm and not worth thinking about more since it's probably closer to 0.1-0.2bpm

The thing to consider here is that most NCAA programs aren't producing NBA players. Plus we've seen in the past freshman groups of NBA prospects dominate the NCAA. It's not going to have a significant impact on the productivity of individuals, and if you did promote that theory then you should really hone in on the freshmen that were actually productive, because they'd get graded on that same curve.

[Yallbecrazy]

I see what you are saying about the stats, but I wonder if that also has to do with the time when people played. This is college ball before kids were incentivized to stay. OG and Pascal are both great college players, but maybe the talent level was also a bit lower.

One area that I think isn't discussed enough is the impact of the NIL since is was brought in, because my theory is that it has in part increased parity in the NCAA.

There are fewer bad teams to build up your numbers on and overall there are better defenses because of the roster consistency. NIL plays a part because it incentivizes players to stay in college longer and that helps programs become more competitive.

Miami had a senior program and they nearly won a title. San Diego State is another example. Just look at the whole tournament and you see how much parity there is in the NCAA.

Teams with one and done stars often struggled because it is a lot to get players to learn the system and perform well. Not saying that this draft doesn't have flaws, but the numbers don't always tell the whole story about the player.

I've thought about that a little and I estimate the max effect is .5bpm and not worth thinking about more since it's probably closer to 0.1-0.2bpm

The thing to consider here is that most NCAA programs aren't producing NBA players. Plus we've seen in the past freshman groups of NBA prospects dominate the NCAA. It's not going to have a significant impact on the productivity of individuals, and if you did promote that theory then you should really hone in on the freshmen that were actually productive, because they'd get graded on that same curve.

Sorry if I misunderstood what you were saying originally. I interpreted it as the average NCAA player is better now than they were 6 years ago thus achieving a BPM of 8 (or whatever number) now is harder than prior as you have to be that much better now since the baseline has increased.

[WuTang_CMB]

If bulls and okc get in we get 11th
If both lose tomorrow, we get 13th.
If only one team wins, we get 12.

I'm fine with either. Need to hit no matter what. This is a big draft for us.

[Yallbecrazy]

If bulls and okc get in we get 11th
If both lose tomorrow, we get 13th.
If only one team wins, we get 12.

I'm fine with either. Need to hit no matter what. This is a big draft for us.

Honestly I want #11 pretty badly as its value goes up a lot in trades. There are dumb teams out there that will get enamored with some future bust and give us more than if we were picking 13th. Also, the lotto odds increase too. If we get a pick 1-4 we can absolutely keep the core and trade that pick for someone young, cheap, and good which avoids us losing value on our free agents.
We could probably get another first rounder or two as well that would help us down the line for depth or trades.

[DG88]

We get to keep our lottery pick in the end but devalued it either way we're going to adding another young talent to this team. I'm still focused on getting a young guard.

[WuTang_CMB]

If bulls and okc get in we get 11th
If both lose tomorrow, we get 13th.
If only one team wins, we get 12.

I'm fine with either. Need to hit no matter what. This is a big draft for us.

Honestly I want #11 pretty badly as its value goes up a lot in trades. There are dumb teams out there that will get enamored with some future bust and give us more than if we were picking 13th. Also, the lotto odds increase too. If we get a pick 1-4 we can absolutely keep the core and trade that pick for someone young, cheap, and good which avoids us losing value on our free agents.
We could probably get another first rounder or two as well that would help us down the line for depth or trades.

It is what it is, its out of our hands now. Just happy it didn't get to 16-17.

Still think there's a natural marriage between us and POR. We'll see what happens at lottery night

[DemHeavyHands]

Gonna need to hit big with this pick especially since we likely won’t have next years

**** Masai really **** with this teams future

I think Cason Wallace is the guy. Need a pg to replace Fred who can defend his position and shoot. Not a fan of the Arkansas guards, so Cason is the best option imo

[will]

You'd hope the front office realizes you need half court shot creation at this point. That's the NBA today, stop trying to game the system and outsmart everyone. Come playoffs, it fails miserably.

Come play in, it fails miserably.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I've thought about that a little and I estimate the max effect is .5bpm and not worth thinking about more since it's probably closer to 0.1-0.2bpm

The thing to consider here is that most NCAA programs aren't producing NBA players. Plus we've seen in the past freshman groups of NBA prospects dominate the NCAA. It's not going to have a significant impact on the productivity of individuals, and if you did promote that theory then you should really hone in on the freshmen that were actually productive, because they'd get graded on that same curve.

Sorry if I misunderstood what you were saying originally. I interpreted it as the average NCAA player is better now than they were 6 years ago thus achieving a BPM of 8 (or whatever number) now is harder than prior as you have to be that much better now since the baseline has increased.

That was Dalek's comment, not mine.

[Kevin Willis]

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Imagine him over GTJr. Defensively in time he can provide a similar level but offensively he's a much better shooter. Plays waaaay more intelligently. Shares the ball. Has the intangibles of being a good rebounder, hustle play guy. It's easy to see him fitting on this roster.

I was a little bit pissed we lost yesterday after missing 18 FTs, being up by 19 and losing at home but draft wise we couldn't ask for anything more.

[Kevin Willis]

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IF he can become a slightly better Cam Johnson playing SG, that would be great.

[PhilBlackson]

I'll just say my early favorite for our pick is Keyonte George, not Cason Wallace...

Mentioned it in my last post but this team needs another scorer, more than it does another perimeter defender (period).

I'm not saying either guy will reach the level of the names of the players I'm likening them to but I don't think the team is a "Marcus Smart" or "better Davion Mitchell" (like Cason's upside) from a borderline Playoff team to even being able to even get out of the 1st rd because almost undoubtedly we wouldn't become a top 4 team & playing a higher seed. If you're gonna even upset one...you'll need a bucket getter (period).

and that's what Keyonte MAY be. It's not hard to picture George doing some of this stuff in his HL, in the Playoffs one day and how much this team needs someone like that...

Watch on YouTube

Of course his shooting efficiency this past season wasn't what most scouts were hoping for but if you watch his shot, there's clearly some feel there. It seems like maybe something is just slightly off that he needs to tune up and isn't shooting exactly what the team is known for helping guys improve?! Every guy from Booker, to Mitchell, to Klay or heck even Anfernee Simons (KG is supposed to have better defence and passing than him btw) etc had their "reasons" they fell in the draft but you could see the talent.

I obviously could be completely wrong BUT the kid has a crazy bag & shows flashes of high level passing...not to mention a star-like confidence. Some people will downplay that as an intangible but the Playoffs shows it's needed everytime. You NEED players that welcome & want those big moments. One thing I haven't seen is KG seeming to lack confidence lol. If he can be a solid enough defender (as scouts say he is) and cleans up his shot more & more and continues to build on his passing...while I don't think he's quite the level of talent to transform us into a true contender, I do think he'd have some huge Playoff moments and at least make the team a respectable one that can push into the 2nd+ rd as they work other pieces around.

[Yallbecrazy]

I'll just say my early favorite for our pick is Keyonte George, not Cason Wallace...

Mentioned it in my last post but this team needs another scorer, more than it does another perimeter defender (period).

I'm not saying either guy will reach the level of the names of the players I'm likening them to but I don't think the team is a "Marcus Smart" or "better Davion Mitchell" (like Cason's upside) from a borderline Playoff team to even being able to even get out of the 1st rd because almost undoubtedly we wouldn't become a top 4 team & playing a higher seed. If you're gonna even upset one...you'll need a bucket getter (period).

and that's what Keyonte MAY be. It's not hard to picture George doing some of this stuff in his HL, in the Playoffs one day and how much this team needs someone like that...

Watch on YouTube

Of course his shooting efficiency this past season wasn't what most scouts were hoping for but if you watch his shot, there's clearly some feel there. It seems like maybe something is just slightly off that he needs to tune up and isn't shooting exactly what the team is known for helping guys improve?! Every guy from Booker, to Mitchell, to Klay or heck even Anfernee Simons (KG is supposed to have better defence and passing than him btw) etc had their "reasons" they fell in the draft but you could see the talent.

I obviously could be completely wrong BUT the kid has a crazy bag & shows flashes of high level passing...not to mention a star-like confidence. Some people will downplay that as an intangible but the Playoffs shows it's needed everytime. You NEED players that welcome & want those big moments. One thing I haven't seen is KG seeming to lack confidence lol. If he can be a solid enough defender (as scouts say he is) and cleans up his shot more & more and continues to build on his passing...while I don't think he's quite the level of talent to transform us into a true contender, I do think he'd have some huge Playoff moments and at least make the team a respectable one that can push into the 2nd+ rd as they work other pieces around.

If you're going for that type of player why not Podziemski? He's only 3.5 months older, but was vastly superior in terms of the stats he put up. Not as good of a handle and the competition was worse, but fewer turnovers, much better shooting, more steals, and a ton more rebounds. You might be able to trade down and grab a Cissoko/Miller/Coulibaly and Podziemski instead of just Keyonte.
I like Podz more than George and I sure as heck like Podz + Cissoko more than George.

[niQ]

ESPN
11. Jordan Hawkins
12. Nick Smith
13. Keyonte George

Tankathon
11. Cason Wallace
12. Brice Sansabaugh
13. Nick Smith

nbadraft.net
11. Nick Smith
12. Cam Whitmore
13. Jarace Walker

nbcsports
11. Cason Wallace
12. Keyonte George
13. GG Jackson

[PhilBlackson]

I'll just say my early favorite for our pick is Keyonte George, not Cason Wallace...

Mentioned it in my last post but this team needs another scorer, more than it does another perimeter defender (period).

I'm not saying either guy will reach the level of the names of the players I'm likening them to but I don't think the team is a "Marcus Smart" or "better Davion Mitchell" (like Cason's upside) from a borderline Playoff team to even being able to even get out of the 1st rd because almost undoubtedly we wouldn't become a top 4 team & playing a higher seed. If you're gonna even upset one...you'll need a bucket getter (period).

and that's what Keyonte MAY be. It's not hard to picture George doing some of this stuff in his HL, in the Playoffs one day and how much this team needs someone like that...

Watch on YouTube

Of course his shooting efficiency this past season wasn't what most scouts were hoping for but if you watch his shot, there's clearly some feel there. It seems like maybe something is just slightly off that he needs to tune up and isn't shooting exactly what the team is known for helping guys improve?! Every guy from Booker, to Mitchell, to Klay or heck even Anfernee Simons (KG is supposed to have better defence and passing than him btw) etc had their "reasons" they fell in the draft but you could see the talent.

I obviously could be completely wrong BUT the kid has a crazy bag & shows flashes of high level passing...not to mention a star-like confidence. Some people will downplay that as an intangible but the Playoffs shows it's needed everytime. You NEED players that welcome & want those big moments. One thing I haven't seen is KG seeming to lack confidence lol. If he can be a solid enough defender (as scouts say he is) and cleans up his shot more & more and continues to build on his passing...while I don't think he's quite the level of talent to transform us into a true contender, I do think he'd have some huge Playoff moments and at least make the team a respectable one that can push into the 2nd+ rd as they work other pieces around.

If you're going for that type of player why not Podziemski? He's only 3.5 months older, but was vastly superior in terms of the stats he put up. Not as good of a handle and the competition was worse, but fewer turnovers, much better shooting, more steals, and a ton more rebounds. You might be able to trade down and grab a Cissoko/Miller/Coulibaly and Podziemski instead of just Keyonte.
I like Podz more than George and I sure as heck like Podz + Cissoko more than George.

The very things you list are the reasons I prefer Keyonte -- level of competition but especially the ballhandling!

That is arguably THE most desirable trait for shot creator because he can get to almost any spot on the court he wants with his handle, he just needs to clean up his shot selection (which being that he obv won't be featured early on will likely force him to be more selective) & probably tweek some minor mechanics. I know how Nurse & others on this board keep saying we just need more shooting but it's simply not true. The Playoffs keeps showing us what we need (as Bobby even admitted), another shot CREATOR. Keyonte could be that. Podz looks like he could be a solid player, no doubt but I'm not even sure I have a great comp for him, better Kennard offensively?! Maybe like a smaller Huerter type, I know they're not perfect but the point is, I don't even see the upside of being an all-star levelish SG as I do with George...

The only part that makes your scenario tough for me is Sidy lol because there's still something I love about his game & size that makes me like him so much as a prospect I actually wouldn't even be that upset if we still took him now in the lottery.