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Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II

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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1021 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 7:47 am

TiKusDom wrote:All money made during the playoffs go to the INDIVIDUAL playoff teams, you didnt even know this?!you didnt even know this?! Which makes your absurdly illogical calculation WRONG.


Wow.. Just wow.

All money made counts in BRI calculations. It is completely irrelevant what team gets the money.

Again, do you know what BRI is, how it is calculated and how it affects how much money players get?
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1022 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 7:51 am

you managed to stay half the way. Less games played = less BRI = less money to earn, try and keep up


Yes, and if you bothered reading/understanding my example you would see that I account for that here:

17% of 3 billion (the 4 weeks of games that are played) = 510,000,000.


Less games, so less BRI.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1023 » by TiKusDom » Mon Nov 7, 2011 8:20 am

Ponchos wrote:
Wow.. Just wow.

All money made counts in BRI calculations. It is completely irrelevant what team gets the money.

Again, do you know what BRI% is, how it is calculated and how it affects how much money players get?


Fine wrong wording, individual players and teams are rewarded additional bonuses and salaries with stipulations in their contracts if they make the playoffs. A team and player in the playoffs will make more revenue than a team that is not. Players out of the playoffs will not make the same amount as players are.

Best Record in NBA| $288,421
Best Record in Conference| $252,369 per team
Second Best Record in Conference| $202,842 per team
Third Best Record in Conference| $151,421 per team
Fourth Best Record in Conference| $119,000 per team
Fifth Best record in Conference| $99,158 per team
Sixth Best Record in Conference| $67,632 per team
Playing in the First Round| $149,243 per team
Playing in Conference Semifinals| $177,579 per team
Playing in Conference Finals| $293,447 per team
Losing in the NBA Finals| $1,173,474 per team
Winning the NBA Finals| $1,770,947 per team


You assigned a 1 billion dollar weight to the playoffs, which is arbitrary, do you have any number to say that the NBA generates 1 billion in revenue from the playoffs?

Whats the BRI for the year?

17% of 3 billion (the 4 weeks of games that are played) = 510,000,000.

100% of the 1 billion from the playoffs = 1,000,000,000.

So the BRI for the year is 1,510,000,000. With a 50/50 split that means the players would get 755,000,000.

Ok great, so how much did the players actually lose? 755mil divided by 2 billion (50% of the BRI if the whole season was played) = 37.75%, so they lost out on 62.25% of total wages.

Wait a minute?!?! 20 weeks of the season were lost, and the players lose 4% a week... They should've lost 83% but they actually only lost 62.25%!!! HOW CAN THIS BE!


How did you measure NBA playoff revenue? Ok I wont contest that the NBA playoffs are a major revenue source, can you verify that its actually 25 % of their total revenue or is this just a number you are pulling out of your ass? Ok lets say its close to that. So 4 % becomes adjusted and players lose per week becomes adjusted and now they are losing 2-3% percent of their total wages instead of 4. They will still lose more money demanding 52 % and losing this sum over a month than having accepted 50 % at the start and making this money from the start. BRI is still SMALLER.

The problem that both sides are now facing, though, is that the longer this lockout drags on, the bigger the hit to BRI. At four percent growth (which is modest), next year’s BRI number would have been $3.96 billion, but because of lost games, that figure will be much lower. Throw in the fact that fans who are disgusted with this fight in general won’t be rushing to add to the league’s intake—they won’t buy jerseys, they won’t go to games and patronize the arenas, they won’t re-up for NBA cable packages—and BRI will take a bigger hit. The concern has to be that not only will BRI suffer this year, but it might take multiple years to get back on track.




Read more: http://aol.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2 ... z1d0Rxxs8D

The lost money in direct revenue from games, and indirect revenue that this will have in the future, will not justify a 52 % split when a real calculation of total lost earnings is made. Many see this. You do not.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1024 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 8:31 am

TiKusDom wrote:Fine wrong wording


Wrong wording? Wrong universe. You tried to do a big "gotcha" to me and showed how little you understand.

individual players and teams are rewarded additional bonuses and salaries with stipulations in their contracts if they make the playoffs. A team and player in the playoffs will make more revenue than a team that is not. Players out of the playoffs will not make the same share as players who do not.

Best Record in NBA| $288,421
Best Record in Conference| $252,369 per team
Second Best Record in Conference| $202,842 per team
Third Best Record in Conference| $151,421 per team
Fourth Best Record in Conference| $119,000 per team
Fifth Best record in Conference| $99,158 per team
Sixth Best Record in Conference| $67,632 per team
Playing in the First Round| $149,243 per team
Playing in Conference Semifinals| $177,579 per team
Playing in Conference Finals| $293,447 per team
Losing in the NBA Finals| $1,173,474 per team
Winning the NBA Finals| $1,770,947 per team


Hey! You looked something up! Neat! Also completely irrelevant.

You assigned a 1 billion dollar weight to the playoffs, which is arbitrary, do you have any number to say that the NBA generates 1 billion in revenue from the playoffs?


Of course it's arbitrary... But honestly I wouldn't be surprised if 25% of the NBA's revenues came from the playoffs. Arbitrary or not is irrelevant for the purposes of the illustration.



How did you measure NBA playoff revenue? Ok I wont contest that the NBA playoffs are a major revenue source, can you verify that its actually 25 % of their total revenue or is this just a number you are pulling out of your ass?


It doesn't matter that I "pulled it out of my ass" I told you I did when I said "lets assume" in the example. The mere fact they are a major revenue source is the only relevant consideration.

Ok lets say its close to that. So 4 % becomes adjusted and players lose per week becomes adjusted and now they are losing 2-3% percent of their total wages instead of 4.


Finally. It took three pages to admit you were wrong about this:

TiKusDom wrote:It is FACT they lost 16 % of their wages because 4 weeks of games have been canceled. What world are you living in? :S


It took some time to get it out of you, but I accept your apology. We can kiss and make up.

They will still lose more money demanding 52 % and losing this sum over a month than having accepted 50 % at the start and making this money from the start. BRI is still SMALLER.


We just don't know yet. You have none of the relevant information to make that determination.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1025 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 8:37 am

Read more: http://aol.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2 ... z1d0Rxxs8D

The lost money in direct revenue from games, and indirect revenue that this will have in the future, will not justify a 52 % split when a real calculation of total lost earnings is made. Many see this. You do not.


I understand this completely. It may turn out to be true.

The numbers are not in yet, so nothing is a total certainty.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1026 » by TiKusDom » Mon Nov 7, 2011 8:42 am

Ponchos wrote:
Wrong wording? Wrong universe. You tried to do a big "gotcha" to me and showed how little you understand.


keep dreaming , the point is that playoff teams are awarded individual bonuses and cash that do not have to be shared with the rest of the league.


Hey! You looked something up! Neat! Also completely irrelevant.

thanks for that irrelevant comment

Of course it's arbitrary... But honestly I wouldn't be surprised if 25% of the NBA's revenues came from the playoffs. Arbitrary or not is irrelevant for the purposes of the illustration.


i can pull arbitrary numbers out of my ass all day too. making your calculation completely worthless unless you have real numbers to back them up


It doesn't matter that I "pulled it out of my ass" I told you I did when I said "lets assume" in the example. The mere fact they are a major revenue source is the only relevant consideration.


look above, your calculations mean nothing, just arbitrary jiber jabber that proved nothing , unless you have proof, pulling out arbitrary statistical numbers for validation is a child's game

Finally. It took three pages to admit you were wrong about this:

It took some time to get it out of you, but I accept your apology. We can kiss and make up.

no apology there, just more of your desperation to make yourself seem right. Your numbers are flawed and make-believe
We just don't know yet. You have none of the relevant information to make that determination.


read the quote again, they will lose more money fighting for the 2 % than they would have made just accepting 50 /50, common logic. They will lose 300 million for this month alone on both sides. That is FACT.

http://blogs.mercurynews.com/warriors/2 ... tant-week/
FACT:
But that doesn’t mean caving now would be a poor economic choice for the players. Given the gap between the players’ current proposal and the owners’ offer, the losses suffered through cancelled games are going to outweigh the losses suffered at the negotiating table. Based on last year’s BRI, each percentage point is worth about $40 million a year. If you assume a 10-year deal, that means the difference between 51% and 52.5% BRI is roughly $600 million over the life of the deal. Since most of the players in the league now will not be around to enjoy the full 10-year term, the actual cost of caving is smaller to them. Meanwhile, the cost of holding out continues to rise. The cost of one month of cancelled games is roughly $350 million in player salary. The players have already lost November, and if December is wiped off the schedule the total salary losses will be around $100 million more than the BRI difference. If you’re pretty sure that you’re going to lose in the end, losing by a little is better than losing by a lot.


350 million lost salary / 2 billion revenue = 18 % lost wages. Simple math


The problem that both sides are now facing, though, is that the longer this lockout drags on, the bigger the hit to BRI. At four percent growth (which is modest), next year’s BRI number would have been $3.96 billion, but because of lost games, that figure will be much lower. Throw in the fact that fans who are disgusted with this fight in general won’t be rushing to add to the league’s intake—they won’t buy jerseys, they won’t go to games and patronize the arenas, they won’t re-up for NBA cable packages—and BRI will take a bigger hit. The concern has to be that not only will BRI suffer this year, but it might take multiple years to get back on track.
[/quote][/quote]
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1027 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 8:49 am

keep dreaming , the point is that playoff teams are awarded individual bonuses and cash that do not have to be shared with the rest of the league.


Your point doesn't matter. The total amount paid to players league-wide is not affected, at all.


i can pull arbitrary numbers out of my ass all day too. making your calculation completely worthless unless you have real numbers to back them up


No, you can't. Change the value by any amount and it still shows the exact same thing. If the value of the NBA playoffs is 10% of total revenues, then the effect is the same. If its 5%? Same thing. You're making me think you didn't understand anything.


We just don't know yet. You have none of the relevant information to make that determination.

read the quote again, they will lose more money fighting for the 2 % than they would have made just accepting 50 /50, common logic


It's speculation. It might turn out to be right, but it is not fact. You're saying it's fact, it is not.

The total amount of games the NBA will play this year is still completely unknown. Until we know that, we don't even have a partial picture of what the losses are.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1028 » by TiKusDom » Mon Nov 7, 2011 8:53 am

Ponchos wrote:
Your point doesn't matter. The total amount paid to players league-wide is not affected, at
Players in playoffs get more money through bonuses, dont you already know this. They do make more money .

No, you can't. Change the value by any amount and it still shows the exact same thing. If the value of the NBA playoffs is 10% of total revenues, then the effect is the same. If its 5%? Same thing. You're making me think you didn't understand anything.
Blah blah, arbitrary number based on faulty calculation. Your assigned weight to the NBA playoff revenue is already baseless, already making your calculation void.
We just don't know yet. You have none of the relevant information to make that determination.

It's speculation. It might turn out to be right, but it is not fact. You're saying it's fact, it is not
.


But that doesn’t mean caving now would be a poor economic choice for the players. Given the gap between the players’ current proposal and the owners’ offer, the losses suffered through cancelled games are going to outweigh the losses suffered at the negotiating table. Based on last year’s BRI, each percentage point is worth about $40 million a year. If you assume a 10-year deal, that means the difference between 51% and 52.5% BRI is roughly $600 million over the life of the deal. Since most of the players in the league now will not be around to enjoy the full 10-year term, the actual cost of caving is smaller to them. Meanwhile, the cost of holding out continues to rise. The cost of one month of cancelled games is roughly $350 million in player salary. The players have already lost November, and if December is wiped off the schedule the total salary losses will be around $100 million more than the BRI difference. If you’re pretty sure that you’re going to lose in the end, losing by a little is better than losing by a lot.


Read the bold. 350 million lost salary in 1 month. 350/2 billion = 18 % lost wages.No point in arguing your inability to grasp simple concepts
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1029 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 8:57 am

TiKusDom wrote:Read the bold. 350 million lost salary in 1 month. 350/2 billion = 18 % lost wages.No point in arguing your inability to grasp simple concepts


One question, does the cancellation of the games in November mean that the games absolutely cannot be made up this year with changes to scheduling?

The answer is no.

The author of that article is operating under a key assumption which may not be correct, the assumption that games cancelled in November will not be made up in the future.

Until we know how many games are ACTUALLY lost this year, it's ALL SPECULATION. He is making calculations based off his assumption that has a very likely possibility of being wrong.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1030 » by C_Money » Mon Nov 7, 2011 9:00 am

Who's the players union representative on the Raptors? Apparently every team has one.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1031 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 9:02 am

TiKusDom wrote: Players in playoffs get more money through bonuses, dont you already know this. They do make more money .


I do know this. It is also completely irrelevant.

What we are discussing is total payout to all players.

If Kobe wins the championship how much money do all the players get? 57% BRI.

If Kobe loses in the first round, how much money do all the players get? 57% BRI.

How that amount is divided up among individual players IS IRRELEVANT. Jesus Christ.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1032 » by TiKusDom » Mon Nov 7, 2011 9:10 am

Ponchos wrote:
One question, does the cancellation of the games in November mean that the games absolutely cannot be made up this year with changes to scheduling?

The answer is no.

The author of that article is operating under a key assumption which may not be correct, the assumption that games cancelled in November will not be made up in the future.

Until we know how many games are ACTUALLY lost this year, it's ALL SPECULATION. He is making calculations based off his assumption that has a very likely possibility of being wrong.


Hes operating on FACTS. 2 months of lost revenue will equate to the 600 million dollars the players would have made over the life of the new CBA at 52%.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1033 » by TiKusDom » Mon Nov 7, 2011 9:11 am

Ponchos wrote:
I do know this. It is also completely irrelevant.

What we are discussing is total payout to all players.

If Kobe wins the championship how much money do all the players get? 57% BRI.

If Kobe loses in the first round, how much money do all the players get? 57% BRI.

How that amount is divided up among individual players IS IRRELEVANT. Jesus Christ.


He will get his share and added bonuses for playoff appearances, players will make additional salary in the playoffs, because they are getting paid in the playoffs through bonuses while players who are out of the playoffs are not.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1034 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 9:13 am

TiKusDom wrote:Hes operating on FACTS. 2 months of lost revenue will equate to the 600 million dollars the players would have made over the life of the CBA.


Yes if 2 months of games are cancelled.

Cancelling scheduled games for November DOES NOT EQUAL cancelling one month of games.

Until the final schedule is made, we do not know how many games are lost. How the F can you disagree with this?
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1035 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 9:14 am

TiKusDom wrote:
Ponchos wrote:
I do know this. It is also completely irrelevant.

What we are discussing is total payout to all players.

If Kobe wins the championship how much money do all the players get? 57% BRI.

If Kobe loses in the first round, how much money do all the players get? 57% BRI.

How that amount is divided up among individual players IS IRRELEVANT. Jesus Christ.


He will get his share and added bonuses for playoff appearances, players will make additional salary in the playoffs, because they are getting paid in the playoffs through bonuses while players who are out of the playoffs are not.


And total player compensation remains unchanged. We are talking about total player compensation.

You keep restating things that are true and I am completely aware of and yet they have absolutely no impact on the topic we are discussing.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1036 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 9:30 am

C_Money wrote:Who's the players union representative on the Raptors? Apparently every team has one.


Bayless.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1037 » by TiKusDom » Mon Nov 7, 2011 10:25 am

Whats the BRI for the year?

17% of 3 billion (the 4 weeks of games that are played) = 510,000,000.

100% of the 1 billion from the playoffs = 1,000,000,000.

So the BRI for the year is 1,510,000,000. With a 50/50 split that means the players would get 755,000,000.

Ok great, so how much did the players actually lose? 755mil divided by 2 billion (50% of the BRI if the whole season was played) = 37.75%, so they lost out on 62.25% of total wages.

Wait a minute?!?! 20 weeks of the season were lost, and the players lose 4% a week... They should've lost 83% but they actually only lost 62.25%!!! HOW CAN THIS BE!


your formula is wrong, and your numbers are out of realm of logic , but ill play this little game.

4 weeks , or a month played out of 6, ok 17 % of games are played. and they generate .17 x 3 billion ( hypothetical yearly NBA regular season revenue ) = 510 million revenue for those 4 weeks. Lets say 500 million since we rounded up the percentage. Improbable revenue considering fan interest probably died off by this point but sure lets play with the numbers. Now these magical playoffs will generate 1 billion, a very large number considering by now casual fans dont give a rats ass about the NBA, and revenues would not be that high. Your scenario is completely unrealistic.
In what world , in any real world, would playoffs generate such massive revenue from only a 4 week season? Realism ? Ok lets be more realistic , we will say playoffs after a 4 week season generated 600 million . 50 50 split gives us 300 million toward players. In total we have 250+300 million = 550 million dollars for players. out of a potential 2 billion (50% of the BRI if the whole season was played, the same number you used). That's 27.5 %. Which is equivalent to about 73 % lost wages , not too far off from 83 % and far ahead of your estimated 62 %. See i can use make believe numbers too, except with more realism and make them work in my favor as well. So the players now lose the equivalent of 3.65% of wages per week, close to the % initially calculated.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1038 » by Ponchos » Mon Nov 7, 2011 10:30 am

TiKusDom wrote:
Whats the BRI for the year?

17% of 3 billion (the 4 weeks of games that are played) = 510,000,000.

100% of the 1 billion from the playoffs = 1,000,000,000.

So the BRI for the year is 1,510,000,000. With a 50/50 split that means the players would get 755,000,000.

Ok great, so how much did the players actually lose? 755mil divided by 2 billion (50% of the BRI if the whole season was played) = 37.75%, so they lost out on 62.25% of total wages.

Wait a minute?!?! 20 weeks of the season were lost, and the players lose 4% a week... They should've lost 83% but they actually only lost 62.25%!!! HOW CAN THIS BE!


your formula is wrong, and your numbers are out of realm of logic , but ill play this little game.

4 weeks , or a month played out of 6, ok 15 % of games are played. and they generate .15 x 3 billion ( hypothetical yearly NBA regular season revenue ) = 450,000 revenue for those 4 weeks. Improbable considering fan interest probably died off by this point but sure lets play with the numbers. Now these magical playoffs will generate 1 billion, a very large number considering by now casual fans dont give a rats ass about the NBA, and revenues would not be that high. Your scenario is completely unrealistic.
In what world , in any real world, would playoffs generate such massive revenue from only a 4 week season? Realism ? Ok lets be more realistic , we will say playoffs after a 4 week season generated 600 million . 50 50 split gives us 300 million toward players. In total we have 225+300 million = 525 million dollars for players. out of a potential 2 billion (50% of the BRI if the whole season was played, the same number you used). That's 26 %. Which is equivalent to about 74 % lost wages , not too far off from 83 % and far ahead of your estimated 62 %.See i can pull numbers out of my ass too, and make numbers work in my favor as well.


No, they don't work in your favor.

You stated it was a fact that players lost 4% salary per week. You stated that they already lost 16% wages. In your example you just demonstrated how a loss of 4% a week is NOT A FACT. There are a lot of variables at play and you are somewhat beginning to grasp that.

It is not a fact, you just proved yourself wrong. Congratulations.

I'm off to bed for now.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1039 » by TiKusDom » Mon Nov 7, 2011 10:33 am

Ponchos wrote:
No, they don't work in your favor.

You stated it was a fact that players lost 4% salary per week. You stated that they already lost 16% wages. In your example you just demonstrated how a loss of 4% a week is NOT A FACT. There are a lot of variables at play and you are somewhat beginning to grasp that.

It is not a fact, you just proved yourself wrong. Congratulations.

I'm off to bed for now.


Fact : Players will lose 350 million in wages for the month of November. This has already been calculated. FACT David Stern himself came out stating that players will lose roughly 4 % of their wages per week lost, and in my formula it was 3.7 % per week. Big diff :lol: You are just running circles around yourself, your make believe accounting doesnt do anything .

Fact: The players will lose 350 million dollars in salary this month.

But that doesn’t mean caving now would be a poor economic choice for the players. Given the gap between the players’ current proposal and the owners’ offer, the losses suffered through cancelled games are going to outweigh the losses suffered at the negotiating table. Based on last year’s BRI, each percentage point is worth about $40 million a year. If you assume a 10-year deal, that means the difference between 51% and 52.5% BRI is roughly $600 million over the life of the deal. Since most of the players in the league now will not be around to enjoy the full 10-year term, the actual cost of caving is smaller to them. Meanwhile, the cost of holding out continues to rise. The cost of one month of cancelled games is roughly $350 million in player salary. The players have already lost November, and if December is wiped off the schedule the total salary losses will be around $100 million more than the BRI difference. If you’re pretty sure that you’re going to lose in the end, losing by a little is better than losing by a lot.


350/2 billion = 18 % per month. Your make believe numbers dont disprove facts. The ammount of money players lose per month will completely negate how much extra they would have made at 52 % by the end of December.
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Re: Official CBA/Labour Talks Discussion Thread II 

Post#1040 » by Indeed » Mon Nov 7, 2011 2:52 pm

TiKusDom wrote:
Indeed wrote:
Ponchos wrote:
There's just so many things factually incorrect with what you wrote I don't know where to begin...


I agree, and why not think from the owner perspective on how much they lost as well.


4% lost wages per week. math is not your friend.


Omg, they are not losing money, but they are not making money, and perhaps collecting EI.
You are job less, doesn't mean you are losing money, while you don't have a job :roll:
Can they claim financial lost as a player? I don't think so.

The owners are losing money, they have to pay their expenses.
Can they claim financial lost? Yes they can.

If someone wants to go on an unpaid vacation, you have a problem?
Why not ask the owners agree to the players, its not like players never gave them a proposal.

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