2023 Draft Discussion Part 5

[Reeko]

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Too bad he was injured and had a crap year

Point guard? Did he show any point guard skills in his time at Arkansas?

[WuTang_CMB]

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Too bad he was injured and had a crap year

Point guard? Did he show any point guard skills in his time at Arkansas?

He showed a big zero tbh

I can see him going to the Pelicans/Lakers

[Yallbecrazy]

Cason Wallace projects to be a vastly superior shooter and scorer than Marcus Smart.

Marcus Smart was a better prospect other than shooting, but he hasn't progressed much at all offensively since entering the NBA. Marcus essentially hit his less than ~10th percentile as a prospect for someone who has been relatively healthy. If you go back and look at him now I think he was easily the 2nd best prospect in that draft behind Embiid and given health considerations should maybe have gone #1.


Cason Wallace's floor seems only slightly to moderately below Marcus Smart.
Cason is actually better offensively than many of these other prospects mocked around us, but scouting videos have to come up with weaknesses and I guess his offense is weak relative to his defense so they have to pick something. Maybe if his offense was the same, but his defense wasn't nearly as good people would like him more.
Kentucky's offense was terrible when he wasn't on the floor.

[gbball]

I'm sorry to say it, I respect the hell outta his defence etc, I always think of him as a very honorable mention off of my draft list but truth be told I really hope we DON'T draft Cason Wallace.

I get it, I get it...he'll be a helluva solid player, almost without doubt a rotation player to likely starter BUT this team just flat out needs SOMETHING ELSE, they do not need another "defensive minded" prospect, they need the OPPOSITE, we need a baller that can get buckets (if we're not going to roll the dice on upside as I'd hope with either of Bilal or Sidy).

Everyone projects him to be another Marcus Smart who's wonderful and everything but if you inserted the actual Marcus Smart into our starting line up, we still aren't doing sh*t and we're still going to have the same damn struggles come Playoff time when no one but Pascal can get there own bucket, so please God no to Wallace especially when he's ALREADY dealing with back issues, no thanks. I'd absolutely LOVE him with a second pick but not with what might be our only pick. If we're going guard, I'll take ANY of George, Bufkin or Hawkins over him. All them play solid enough defence with much better potential offensively.

I left out Nick Smith Jr, who I gotta laugh that Givony thinks we'd take but because he's the last person I can see us drafting...I almost have to give it a chance lol because it seems like it''s always the last person you expect us to take that we do take lol. But I've never been on the NS Jr bandwagon even before college started. He just reminds me of Bones Hyland, Tyler Herro, Poole type of player. The several other guards I already listed have fairly similar potential offensively without being a pylon like NS Jr or injury concerns but who the heck knows maybe he has something I'm not seeing, I'm just not really buying what some analysts are selling about him.

I feel pretty much the same as you.

I think sometimes the lottery is a bit of a trap outside of a few prospects at the very top or sometimes in the mid to high lottery, there ends up being a lot of obligation to take one of the consensus top players. It's why we got Poeltl at 9 and Siakam at 27 in the same draft. It's why Giannis, SGA, Nash, Kahwi, Kobe, Mitchell all went in the teens instead of the top 10. It's why McGrady was taken 9th after guys like Keith Van Horne, Tim Thomas, Tony Battie, Adonal Foyle, Ron Mercer and Antonio Daniels. The only guy taken ahead of him that was better was number 1 Tim Duncan. McGrady clearly had talent, but he was no sure thing.

Falling into group think is a sure way to get stuck as a middling franchise. Sometimes you have to go off the board and take a few risks. It's easier at 13 than it would be at 4 or 5.

We have a chance to get someone we really like at 13 that might be seen as too much of reach if we were picking higher. I'd rather we take a chance on someone we really like and miss big than go safe. Picking the consensus guy is actually the best way to stay stuck in the middle. Because if you do what everyone else would do you'll generally wind up with the same results they do and most lottery teams screw things up, and are drafting high year after year, hoping for a lottery ticket to save them.

That being said, Wallace seems like a very good safe pick at 13 if he's there. Bufkin looks like Poole to me...which is great and helps us. But not a star. Bilal looks like he could be a star. He makes the game look easy, and he's not close to being a finished product. If a guy makes the game look easy and he's only scratching the surface of his potential, you pay attention.

Top of the draft guys are well known commodities and oftentimes have a lot of realized potential. It's usually pretty clear what you're getting. The guys who don't get picked as high but could be better usually have less realized potential or aren't as physically developed. Or they've realized a lot of the potential, but aren't as elite at any one thing. Or they have clear strengths, but major uncorrectable weaknesses.

In a good development environment, you get the guy with a good base framework of skill, iq, who's a worker with the highest projected ceiling and the best tools and then you're patient with them.

For me that's one of these guys. And one of them will definitely be available when we pick.

1. Coulibaly
2. Miller
3. Cissoko

The safe (don't mess this up) picks would be

1. Wallace
2. Bufkin
3. Hawkins

and more. There are a fair amount of safe picks that we could make if we're just looking for scoring and shooting.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Cason Wallace projects to be a vastly superior shooter and scorer than Marcus Smart.

Marcus Smart was a better prospect other than shooting, but he hasn't progressed much at all offensively since entering the NBA. Marcus essentially hit his less than ~10th percentile as a prospect for someone who has been relatively healthy. If you go back and look at him now I think he was easily the 2nd best prospect in that draft behind Embiid and given health considerations should maybe have gone #1.


Cason Wallace's floor seems only slightly to moderately below Marcus Smart.
Cason is actually better offensively than many of these other prospects mocked around us, but scouting videos have to come up with weaknesses and I guess his offense is weak relative to his defense so they have to pick something. Maybe if his offense was the same, but his defense wasn't nearly as good people would like him more.
Kentucky's offense was terrible when he wasn't on the floor.

I followed Kentucky very closely and their offense was basically like the Raptors offense, it had zero structure to it and fed off of Tshiebwe post ups and p&r with Reeves as the main kickout option off the screen. If nothing materialized they would just let anyone do some iso chucking and watch Tshiebwe go to work on the glass on the misses.

I think Cason has very solid form on his shot, strong pullup game, decent enough ability to snake his way to the rim and some ability to finish through contact and will keep getting better as a passer. He's not getting to the line 6-7 times a game in the NBA but he can operate off the p&r very efficiently and also hit open shots when he's off-ball. The important thing is that he clears medically. If his body is good to go and he's there I'm pretty confident he will be a Raptor. Even as a 3rd option on a team he can be an efficient 3rd option offensively while bringing outstanding defense on the other side and I'm confident he can at least be a 3rd option, a guy who gets 14 shots a game. It's likely where he will remain but his offensive ability is slammed a bit too much.

[tdotrep2]

smith jr is the type of player you hope turns out to be a playable 6th man.

[Yallbecrazy]

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Too bad he was injured and had a crap year

Point guard? Did he show any point guard skills in his time at Arkansas?

Showed as much PG skills as SG skills, or C for that matter.

[DreamTeam09]

i don't think he lasts until 13.

Who takes him before us, I'm almost certain the top 10 is locked in

I don't see OKC or Magic going for him. It would either be Utah at 9 or Wizards at 8.

Most likely Wizards considering they have no point guard.

Wizards probably go Black there no?

[BoyzNTheHood]

This is a public service announcement for those posting one on none videos of prospects looking like the next big thing

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[Yallbecrazy]

This is a public service announcement for those posting one on none videos of prospects looking like the next big thing

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Remember the video of Scalabrine absolutely killing those guys 1 on 1? Even the bad Division 1 guys are on another level to the best local guys you've ever seen. NBA guys are on another level entirely from that.

[BoyzNTheHood]

This is a public service announcement for those posting one on none videos of prospects looking like the next big thing

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Remember the video of Scalabrine absolutely killing those guys 1 on 1? Even the bad Division 1 guys are on another level to the best local guys you've ever seen. NBA guys are on another level entirely from that.

Yup. Even as a regular kid playing against the Humber Hawks it was obvious how much better guys who practiced on a regular basis were.

[Dalek]

Watching Nick Smith Jr. on his Pro Day showed his scoring instincts with his off ball shooting, and off the dribble mid-range game. I think his ultimate position is point(s) guard, in that he is a walking bucket who will have some good playmaking reads on occasion, but you bank on his scoring instincts.

He is still young and has some development gains to main, but I think about Devin Booker when he was doing his Pro Day and he looks skinny and a far cry from the player he is now:

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Smith Jr. has a good frame to build strength on. High level shooting will come in time because his form looks good, and he has good quickness and high level handles. I am not sure I like him more than Max Lewis, but if he is healthy he does have that star quality to him.

[Pooper]

This is a public service announcement for those posting one on none videos of prospects looking like the next big thing

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[youtube]

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[WuTang_CMB]

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[Rapsfan07]

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I've always been high on Whitmore. Think he has rhe chance to be a Top 5 player from this draft.

Still think Toronto should be locked in on Bufkin and Wallace. One of them is a lock to be there at 10 and if for whatever reason they aren't, move back.

Whatever we do, DO NOT take Miller, Cissoko or Coulibaly with #13. One of these guys should be available later, trade down if you like them.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Lively's deep shooting at his pro day had to have boosted his stock. Anyone on the edge about his ability to contribute offensively now knows this guy has 3 point range and will likely be able to hit open shots and force a defense to defend him all the way to the 3 point line which is huge, he just didnt get a chance to show that at Duke.

Lively is an awesome player. One of the guys who impacted his team more than anyone else in college basketball this year.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Smith Jr. has a good frame to build strength on. High level shooting will come in time because his form looks good, and he has good quickness and high level handles. I am not sure I like him more than Max Lewis, but if he is healthy he does have that star quality to him.

You seem to support all of the highest bust risk prospects in this draft. I challenge you to choose 1 that will make it over the others, because that's the most likely occurrence.

[billy_hoyle]

Smith Jr. has a good frame to build strength on. High level shooting will come in time because his form looks good, and he has good quickness and high level handles. I am not sure I like him more than Max Lewis, but if he is healthy he does have that star quality to him.

You seem to support all of the highest bust risk prospects in this draft. I challenge you to choose 1 that will make it over the others, because that's the most likely occurrence.

That's actually an interesting idea. Conversely, you only like guys that were analytically productive.

I feel like there should be an official draft thread. Where posters make their final draft boards known. They only get to make one post . Pick three guys they would be targeting at the draft slot ( this year 13). And select the one guy they really want.

Compare those outcomes.

[HumbleRen]

Getting a Marcus Smart type player at 13 is amazing value lol.

[gha4life]

Predicting who is gonna pan out is such a toss up , even the consensus picks often busts due myriad of factors , you can use all the analytics and there would be players that will still bust, I ve been soo wrong soo many times I dont even trust myself anymore lol , was so sure shanbazz Napier was gonna be a star smh , want to know what players ppl thought were going to be a sure thing and didn't turn out so well?

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