OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread

[hsb]

While Ontario still looks like a trainwreck, Ottawa has emerged as a shining star here. At one point last month, they were the worst per 100k and has managed to turn things around completely.

Meanwhile something needs to be done with Peel Region.

My guess is people in Peel don't give a crap anymore.

Nah, it's more complicated than that.

Go read this chain:

[Kevin Willis]

While Ontario still looks like a trainwreck, Ottawa has emerged as a shining star here. At one point last month, they were the worst per 100k and has managed to turn things around completely.

Meanwhile something needs to be done with Peel Region.

My guess is people in Peel don't give a crap anymore.

Nah, it's more complicated than that.

Go read this chain:

Thanks.

Peel is more than Brampton. Brampton is more than S. Asian. I was thinking less along race for this one and more along lack of enforcement.

S. Asians tend to die less per cases - probably because of their diet and use of herbs or sun in that region - but I think that would matter less in Peel. It's more like there are a lot of restaurants open, parties, gyms, etc. that are not being controlled properly. Plus Peel does have business hubs where there are factory outbreaks and finally. Maybe people don't give a crap anymore and want to live their lives.

[Westside Gunn]

https://www.mississauga.com/news-story/10242732-covid-19-map-mississauga-hot-spots-and-latest-case-counts-in-all-neigbourhoods/

The airport being in the peel region also doesnt help peel. Its a mystery to me why the feds kept the airports open even in the initial corona boom, flights coming in from every hotspot imaginable.

Brampton does get a lot of hate lol. The driving there is a warzone and apparently every home has like 40 people in it.

We have a lot of land but the way things are headed for this country Toronto will be dense like Dhaka and Hong Kong

[ATLTimekeeper]

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/11/11/ontario-rejected-its-own-public-health-agencys-advice-when-it-launched-its-colour-coded-plan-for-covid-19-restrictions.html

This is just getting worse. Health Minister caught bold-faced lying to the public.

[Lord_Zedd]

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/11/11/ontario-rejected-its-own-public-health-agencys-advice-when-it-launched-its-colour-coded-plan-for-covid-19-restrictions.html

This is just getting worse. Health Minister caught bold-faced lying to the public.

Holy cow that's brutal. Epidemiologists/health care were questioning this with the 100+ cases per 100k and a 10% positivity rate threshold being set so high. By the time either of those two criteria were met, the spread will be way out of control.

The fact that public health didn't even know about the chart until the news conference is quite telling too.....

While it obviously looks economic driven, even the 10 max limit in bars, restaurants, gyms make no sense either from a business owner pov. Nobody runs a business to operate at a loss.

[BigBoss23]

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/11/11/ontario-rejected-its-own-public-health-agencys-advice-when-it-launched-its-colour-coded-plan-for-covid-19-restrictions.html

This is just getting worse. Health Minister caught bold-faced lying to the public.

Holy cow that's brutal. Epidemiologists/health care were questioning this with the 100+ cases per 100k and a 10% positivity rate threshold being set so high. By the time either of those two criteria were met, the spread will be way out of control.

The fact that public health didn't even know about the chart until the news conference is quite telling too.....

While it obviously looks economic driven, even the 10 max limit in bars, restaurants, gyms make no sense either from a business owner pov. Nobody runs a business to operate at a loss.

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CHb-tHUA9ax/?igshid=19lszg9a7ppfv

[raptorstime]

There is a good chance we get to 2k/day before the end of the month.

[NBA Sheady]

My guess is people in Peel don't give a crap anymore.

Nah, it's more complicated than that.

Go read this chain:

Thanks.

Peel is more than Brampton. Brampton is more than S. Asian. I was thinking less along race for this one and more along lack of enforcement.

S. Asians tend to die less per cases - probably because of their diet and use of herbs or sun in that region - but I think that would matter less in Peel. It's more like there are a lot of restaurants open, parties, gyms, etc. that are not being controlled properly. Plus Peel does have business hubs where there are factory outbreaks and finally. Maybe people don't give a crap anymore and want to live their lives.

And people doing working-class jobs who are heavily exposed on the frontlines and will inevitably contract the virus at higher rates than folks like myself who get paid to write code in the comfort of my apartment.

That was the whole point of that tweet.

[Kevin Willis]

Nah, it's more complicated than that.

Go read this chain:

Thanks.

Peel is more than Brampton. Brampton is more than S. Asian. I was thinking less along race for this one and more along lack of enforcement.

S. Asians tend to die less per cases - probably because of their diet and use of herbs or sun in that region - but I think that would matter less in Peel. It's more like there are a lot of restaurants open, parties, gyms, etc. that are not being controlled properly. Plus Peel does have business hubs where there are factory outbreaks and finally. Maybe people don't give a crap anymore and want to live their lives.

And people doing working-class jobs who are heavily exposed on the frontlines and will inevitably contract the virus at higher rates than folks like myself who get paid to write code in the comfort of my apartment.

That was the whole point of that tweet.

I understand that, the probem with it is that Brampton is not the only place in the GTA that has service workers. Also, as I stated, Peel is more than just Brampton. I am very confident there are service workers in Oshawa sans outbreak. That suggests the problem is more the enforcement of the rules is not being done in Peel as a whole at the level it should be.

For instance Peel has a few outbreaks in grocery stores that are not in Brampton and there are outbreaks in school unless the suggestion is Brampton is strictly blue collar people who supply the service industry for all of Peel which I strongly disagree. Or that there are no white collar workers like yourself in Brampton which I also strongly disagree. Anyways, my original statement was that people are not caring to follow protocols in Peel and /or it's not being enforced the way it should.

[ItsDanger]

Clear pattern in Brampton cases from Oct 24.

[execoftheyear]

https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2020/11/11/ontario-rejected-its-own-public-health-agencys-advice-when-it-launched-its-colour-coded-plan-for-covid-19-restrictions.html

This is just getting worse. Health Minister caught bold-faced lying to the public.

Holy cow that's brutal. Epidemiologists/health care were questioning this with the 100+ cases per 100k and a 10% positivity rate threshold being set so high. By the time either of those two criteria were met, the spread will be way out of control.

The fact that public health didn't even know about the chart until the news conference is quite telling too.....

While it obviously looks economic driven, even the 10 max limit in bars, restaurants, gyms make no sense either from a business owner pov. Nobody runs a business to operate at a loss.

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CHb-tHUA9ax/?igshid=19lszg9a7ppfv

crazy to me that people still don't see the difference between public places like gyms/bars/restaurants vs any other public place.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10/restaurants-gyms-were-spring-superspreader-sites-occupancy-limits-could-control-spread/

Any public place that involves an activity where you are required to remove your mask in an enclosed space that is shared with other people will always be a greater risk since the virus is transmitted through the respiratory system, this should be common knowledge by now. The stats are starting to back this up but honestly do we need stats to show this when logic can easily explain why this is the case?

[Kevin Willis]

I'm aware that the percentage of cases are higher in Brampton for the region of Peel.

https://www.peelregion.ca/coronavirus/case-status/

I don't want to play the game of stereotypes and broad generalizations. Mississauga has 121 cases in the last 24 hours, they also have an issue.

https://coronavirus-response-mississauga-1-mississauga.hub.arcgis.com/

If you guys want to go in that territory, I will not follow you. Enjoy. I do think Brampton does get certain stereotypes that go a bit too far. Not everyone there is in the service industry. Whatever conclusion that is reached it should be backed by stats over opinion.

[Brinbe]

Holy cow that's brutal. Epidemiologists/health care were questioning this with the 100+ cases per 100k and a 10% positivity rate threshold being set so high. By the time either of those two criteria were met, the spread will be way out of control.

The fact that public health didn't even know about the chart until the news conference is quite telling too.....

While it obviously looks economic driven, even the 10 max limit in bars, restaurants, gyms make no sense either from a business owner pov. Nobody runs a business to operate at a loss.

https://www.instagram.com/tv/CHb-tHUA9ax/?igshid=19lszg9a7ppfv

crazy to me that people still don't see the difference between public places like gyms/bars/restaurants vs any other public place.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10/restaurants-gyms-were-spring-superspreader-sites-occupancy-limits-could-control-spread/

Any public place that involves an activity where you are required to remove your mask in an enclosed space that is shared with other people will always be a greater risk since the virus is transmitted through the respiratory system, this should be common knowledge by now. The stats are starting to back this up but honestly do we need stats to show this when logic can easily explain why this is the case?

you'd think so... but some on this board

[Brinbe]

crazy to me that people still don't see the difference between public places like gyms/bars/restaurants vs any other public place.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10/restaurants-gyms-were-spring-superspreader-sites-occupancy-limits-could-control-spread/

Any public place that involves an activity where you are required to remove your mask in an enclosed space that is shared with other people will always be a greater risk since the virus is transmitted through the respiratory system, this should be common knowledge by now. The stats are starting to back this up but honestly do we need stats to show this when logic can easily explain why this is the case?

you'd think so... but some on this board

i mean, if we wanna get numbers down, the solution is to do what we did back in mid-march (and what places all over europe/the world are doing now) till we get the numbers down again. but no one has the appetite for more stimulus to help those who would be out of work. and they fudged part of the point of the first lockdown, which was to get testing capacity up to par in our labs and to get contact tracing on point. and they completely botched all of that, so we're just stuck in a real crappy situation right now with no easy solution out because our government at the provincial/municipal levels completely failed us.

something something something, THE ECONOMY. nevermind the fact that if we properly did the job properly the first time, we'd be in a way better position right now. short-term pain, long-term gain.

we saw this wave coming in SEPTEMBER and they just ignored it. the bill has come due and they (tory/ford) are completely to blame.

and anyone that wants to blame trudeau can get bent.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-to-get-7b-of-federal-government-s-19b-pandemic-recovery-funds-1.5026474

https://www.sudbury.com/local-news/fao-shows-67b-in-unallocated-covid-19-funds-ford-says-cash-flowing-quickly-as-possible-2704787

they've given us the funds and ford has sat on it.

[ItsDanger]

I would think by late December the "stats" should be obvious to even the most stubborn. Consider pre-2020 commentary.

[RaptorsNorth]

Ford needs to go. The man has handled the pandemic terribly. When winter comes the numbers are going to skyrocket.

[Kevin Willis]

Ford needs to go. The man has handled the pandemic terribly. When winter comes the numbers are going to skyrocket.

He will stay until his mandate is done but I agree he takes 1 step forward and 2 steps back. This second wave is only going to get worse, and the medical impact is going to extend beyond COVID to deaths from other preventable ailments.

[Basketball_Jones]

2000 here we come! I'm starting to think this staged approach isn't really going to work at all. Closing almost everything didn't work, I don't see how opening things a little will help either. It's come down to the culture and people, and it appears we are now mirroring our neighbours to the South and have given up.

[ItsDanger]

https://www.ottawamatters.com/national-news/ticketmaster-plans-to-check-for-covid-19-vaccine-status-2871746

The ticket distributor is currently exploring and planning to develop the system that will sync digital tickets with information from third party healthcare providers.

Covid passports are coming. Papers!

[Lord_Zedd]

crazy to me that people still don't see the difference between public places like gyms/bars/restaurants vs any other public place.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/10/restaurants-gyms-were-spring-superspreader-sites-occupancy-limits-could-control-spread/

Any public place that involves an activity where you are required to remove your mask in an enclosed space that is shared with other people will always be a greater risk since the virus is transmitted through the respiratory system, this should be common knowledge by now. The stats are starting to back this up but honestly do we need stats to show this when logic can easily explain why this is the case?

you'd think so... but some on this board

i mean, if we wanna get numbers down, the solution is to do what we did back in mid-march (and what places all over europe/the world are doing now) till we get the numbers down again. but no one has the appetite for more stimulus to help those who would be out of work. and they fudged part of the point of the first lockdown, which was to get testing capacity up to par in our labs and to get contact tracing on point. and they completely botched all of that, so we're just stuck in a real crappy situation right now with no easy solution out because our government at the provincial/municipal levels completely failed us.

something something something, THE ECONOMY. nevermind the fact that if we properly did the job properly the first time, we'd be in a way better position right now. short-term pain, long-term gain.

we saw this wave coming in SEPTEMBER and they just ignored it. the bill has come due and they (tory/ford) are completely to blame.

and anyone that wants to blame trudeau can get bent.

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-to-get-7b-of-federal-government-s-19b-pandemic-recovery-funds-1.5026474

https://www.sudbury.com/local-news/fao-shows-67b-in-unallocated-covid-19-funds-ford-says-cash-flowing-quickly-as-possible-2704787

they've given us the funds and ford has sat on it.

Two weeks ago in Ontario's projections the worst case scenario was us averaging 1200 cases a day and ICU will be operating in surge capacity within 30 days. Keep in mind this is when Ford had "good news" for us and feeling optimistic.

(Slide 6) https://www.tvo.org/article/heres-ontarios-updated-covid-19-modelling

Fast forward to today, with the new projections we're still on track on hitting the first ICU threshold - which is within two weeks and now 3000 daily cases is one of our better scenarios......

The cases and hospitalizations were the warning signs and now we're on the clock. If things stay the way they are, 6 weeks until those hard decisions get to be made.

Also TIL Ontario has a 150 ICU capacity and 350 until it gets overwhelming. Right now we're sitting at 106 in the ICU and with the rate we've been admitting people in the hospital lately, two weeks sounds about right.

(page 9) https://files.ontario.ca/moh-fall-prep-modelling-deck-en-2020-09-30-v2.pdf