Siakam is shooting the 3 at a historically bad rate, and has a chance to be one of the worst in NBA history.

[Scase]

Sure, when you present a sound argument including normalization of all factors.

Sure. You could read the thread to get that information, but if you need it presented in a clear and concise way I can do that for you.

The argument being: Siakams 2pt% has risen in 2023-24 as a result in a change in shot selection and NOT due to some noisy variance we can expect to fall. Most notably, a decrease in the amount of mid range shots he is taking.

The process being: I took his 2023-24 shot diet (aka, the % of shots from different areas inside the 3 point line), and multiplied his shot selection this year to his shooting %'s from prior years to see what his 2 point % would have been if he had taken these shots in prior years.

The conclusion being:

2023-24 - 57.0% (the same, for obvious reasons)
2022-23 - 57.7%
2021-22 - 57.0%
2020-21 - 53.0%
2019-20 - 49.8%
2018-19 - 57.0%
2017-18 - 54.4%
2016-17 - 50.5%
Carerer - 55.0%

Therefore - it it reasonable to assume that this 2pt% is sustainable, as he is not shooting over his head from any areas of the floor and is line in his career averages for all intensive purposes (his career averages are really dragged down by the first half of his career)

Counter-arguments
Teams will start to defend him differently and force him away from those spots and his efficiency will fall. You could maybe suggest that, however we saw in 2018-19 when he took on less usage his efficiency stayed high (even higher than today)

Another consideration - his assisted 2 point % (as since you have read the thread you would know) has increased from 31% to 49% this year. This means he is taking easier shots, less isolation (which likely correlates to the decrease in mid range shots), and usually is a recipe for increased efficiency.


So please, grace me with your infinite knowledge and explain my flaws in my logic.

So you think his current 2 pt shots won't normalize and will remain at current rate while his 3 pt will improve/normalize to historical averages? Interesting theory.

His 2p% increase is inflated by a 56% increase in 0-3ft shot volume, and he's currently scoring at his career average 71%, he's also shooting 3% better on his 3-10ft shots on the same volume.

I wouldn't be super surprised if he sustains it at a higher % than last season (52.3% vs 57%), but I also wouldn't be surprised if his 0-3ft success rate dips a bit as generally when there is a large increase to volume, efficiency takes a dip. All in all if he keeps up the same diet, he'll probably sustain a better 2p% than last year.

The question is by how much, his 3-10ft is a career high and if regression is a thing, then he's gonna drop a couple % and it might all even out.

[YogurtProducer]

Sure, when you present a sound argument including normalization of all factors.

Sure. You could read the thread to get that information, but if you need it presented in a clear and concise way I can do that for you.

The argument being: Siakams 2pt% has risen in 2023-24 as a result in a change in shot selection and NOT due to some noisy variance we can expect to fall. Most notably, a decrease in the amount of mid range shots he is taking.

The process being: I took his 2023-24 shot diet (aka, the % of shots from different areas inside the 3 point line), and multiplied his shot selection this year to his shooting %'s from prior years to see what his 2 point % would have been if he had taken these shots in prior years.

The conclusion being:

2023-24 - 57.0% (the same, for obvious reasons)
2022-23 - 57.7%
2021-22 - 57.0%
2020-21 - 53.0%
2019-20 - 49.8%
2018-19 - 57.0%
2017-18 - 54.4%
2016-17 - 50.5%
Carerer - 55.0%

Therefore - it it reasonable to assume that this 2pt% is sustainable, as he is not shooting over his head from any areas of the floor and is line in his career averages for all intensive purposes (his career averages are really dragged down by the first half of his career)

Counter-arguments
Teams will start to defend him differently and force him away from those spots and his efficiency will fall. You could maybe suggest that, however we saw in 2018-19 when he took on less usage his efficiency stayed high (even higher than today)

Another consideration - his assisted 2 point % (as since you have read the thread you would know) has increased from 31% to 49% this year. This means he is taking easier shots, less isolation (which likely correlates to the decrease in mid range shots), and usually is a recipe for increased efficiency.


So please, grace me with your infinite knowledge and explain my flaws in my logic.

So you think his current 2 pt shots won't normalize and will remain at current rate while his 3 pt will improve/normalize to historical averages? Interesting theory.

Did you... just not read my post at all?

His increase in 2pt% is not due to him hitting shots at a higher rate inside the arc, it is solely due to a change in shot selection in which he is shooting mid range shots less which was dropping his %'s. Unless he starts to take those shots more again, there is no reason to think his %'s will drop.

Saying "2pt" as a blanket statement is just really poor analysis. There are many different types of shots, and he is just taking less of the least efficient kind.

The 3 point shot is the 3 point shot. It is pretty much the only area of the floor in his aresenal that is below his career averages. There is no "normalizing" to happen with his 2 point shots, unless of course you are of the belief he is either going to
A) resort to taking more mid range shots
OR
B) start shooting career lows at the rim and from the shorter mid range areas.

[ItsDanger]

Sure. You could read the thread to get that information, but if you need it presented in a clear and concise way I can do that for you.

The argument being: Siakams 2pt% has risen in 2023-24 as a result in a change in shot selection and NOT due to some noisy variance we can expect to fall. Most notably, a decrease in the amount of mid range shots he is taking.

The process being: I took his 2023-24 shot diet (aka, the % of shots from different areas inside the 3 point line), and multiplied his shot selection this year to his shooting %'s from prior years to see what his 2 point % would have been if he had taken these shots in prior years.

The conclusion being:

2023-24 - 57.0% (the same, for obvious reasons)
2022-23 - 57.7%
2021-22 - 57.0%
2020-21 - 53.0%
2019-20 - 49.8%
2018-19 - 57.0%
2017-18 - 54.4%
2016-17 - 50.5%
Carerer - 55.0%

Therefore - it it reasonable to assume that this 2pt% is sustainable, as he is not shooting over his head from any areas of the floor and is line in his career averages for all intensive purposes (his career averages are really dragged down by the first half of his career)

Counter-arguments
Teams will start to defend him differently and force him away from those spots and his efficiency will fall. You could maybe suggest that, however we saw in 2018-19 when he took on less usage his efficiency stayed high (even higher than today)

Another consideration - his assisted 2 point % (as since you have read the thread you would know) has increased from 31% to 49% this year. This means he is taking easier shots, less isolation (which likely correlates to the decrease in mid range shots), and usually is a recipe for increased efficiency.


So please, grace me with your infinite knowledge and explain my flaws in my logic.

So you think his current 2 pt shots won't normalize and will remain at current rate while his 3 pt will improve/normalize to historical averages? Interesting theory.

Did you... just not read my post at all?

His increase in 2pt% is not due to him hitting shots at a higher rate inside the arc, it is solely due to a change in shot selection in which he is shooting mid range shots less which was dropping his %'s. Unless he starts to take those shots more again, there is no reason to think his %'s will drop.

Saying "2pt" as a blanket statement is just really poor analysis. There are many different types of shots, and he is just taking less of the least efficient kind.

The 3 point shot is the 3 point shot. It is pretty much the only area of the floor in his aresenal that is below his career averages. There is no "normalizing" to happen with his 2 point shots, unless of course you are of the belief he is either going to
A) resort to taking more mid range shots
OR
B) start shooting career lows at the rim and from the shorter mid range areas.

Yes, I read it. And again, interesting theory that his 2 pt shot types and success will maintain however others won't. Historically, this rarely holds.

[YogurtProducer]

His 2p% increase is inflated by a 56% increase in 0-3ft shot volume, and he's currently scoring at his career average 71%, he's also shooting 3% better on his 3-10ft shots on the same volume.

I wouldn't be super surprised if he sustains it at a higher % than last season (52.3% vs 57%), but I also wouldn't be surprised if his 0-3ft success rate dips a bit as generally when there is a large increase to volume, efficiency takes a dip. All in all if he keeps up the same diet, he'll probably sustain a better 2p% than last year.

The question is by how much, his 3-10ft is a career high and if regression is a thing, then he's gonna drop a couple % and it might all even out.

You are heavily misinterpreting these stats.

His 0-3ft shot volume has decreased as a % of his overall shot profile. Below is his FGA from 0-3ft over the last 5 years

2018 - 4.76
2019 - 5.09
2020 - 4.14
2021 - 3.84
2022 - 3.55
2023 - 4.86

Taking this many shots close to the rim is no uncharted territory for Siakam as he has taken that many rim shots before (on 72.2% and 70.3% respectively). He has taken more this year, but no where near a 56% increase like you suggest. It is a 37% over last year, but you are comparing that to his lowest output of his career as well.

From 3-10 ft, he has averaged 48.6% from this range over the last 2 years and is now at 50.5%. If he were to drop 2% on those shots it would have almost no impact on his efficiency, as 2% on only 29% of his overall shots will have next to no impact (like, a half percent).

[YogurtProducer]

Yes, I read it. And again, interesting theory that his 2 pt shot types and success will maintain however others won't. Historically, this rarely holds.

So you believe he is going to revert back to last year and start taking 26-28ish% of his shots from 10-23 feet rather than the 15.5% he is at right now?

I dont find it overly crazy to think Siakam will continue to hit his shots at the rim up to 10 feet at rates similar to what he has done for 5 years. Why should we expect that not to hold?

And on the flip side, lets say his %'s do drop, is it not fair to assume his 3pt% will creep back up?

A 10% increase in 3 point percentage is going to GREATLY offset a 2% drop in 2pt%

[ItsDanger]

Yes, I read it. And again, interesting theory that his 2 pt shot types and success will maintain however others won't. Historically, this rarely holds.

So you believe he is going to revert back to last year and start taking 26-28ish% of his shots from 10-23 feet rather than the 15.5% he is at right now?

I dont find it overly crazy to think Siakam will continue to hit his shots at the rim up to 10 feet at rates similar to what he has done for 5 years. Why should we expect that not to hold?

And on the flip side, lets say his %'s do drop, is it not fair to assume his 3pt% will creep back up?

A 10% increase in 3 point percentage is going to GREATLY offset a 2% drop in 2pt%

I think this attempt to distract from his horrendous 3 pt shooting is just inconsistent thinking. Feel free to keep pushing it though.

[YogurtProducer]

Yes, I read it. And again, interesting theory that his 2 pt shot types and success will maintain however others won't. Historically, this rarely holds.

So you believe he is going to revert back to last year and start taking 26-28ish% of his shots from 10-23 feet rather than the 15.5% he is at right now?

I dont find it overly crazy to think Siakam will continue to hit his shots at the rim up to 10 feet at rates similar to what he has done for 5 years. Why should we expect that not to hold?

And on the flip side, lets say his %'s do drop, is it not fair to assume his 3pt% will creep back up?

A 10% increase in 3 point percentage is going to GREATLY offset a 2% drop in 2pt%

I think this attempt to distract from his horrendous 3 pt shooting is just inconsistent thinking. Feel free to keep pushing it though.

No distraction - his 3 point shooting right now is pathetic.

Still waiting to hear how the logic is flawed. No buzzwords allowed though - you actually have to provide some meat and potatoes.

[Scase]

His 2p% increase is inflated by a 56% increase in 0-3ft shot volume, and he's currently scoring at his career average 71%, he's also shooting 3% better on his 3-10ft shots on the same volume.

I wouldn't be super surprised if he sustains it at a higher % than last season (52.3% vs 57%), but I also wouldn't be surprised if his 0-3ft success rate dips a bit as generally when there is a large increase to volume, efficiency takes a dip. All in all if he keeps up the same diet, he'll probably sustain a better 2p% than last year.

The question is by how much, his 3-10ft is a career high and if regression is a thing, then he's gonna drop a couple % and it might all even out.

You are heavily misinterpreting these stats.

His 0-3ft shot volume has decreased as a % of his overall shot profile. Below is his FGA from 0-3ft over the last 5 years

2018 - 4.76
2019 - 5.09
2020 - 4.14
2021 - 3.84
2022 - 3.55
2023 - 4.86

Taking this many shots close to the rim is no uncharted territory for Siakam as he has taken that many rim shots before (on 72.2% and 70.3% respectively). He has taken more this year, but no where near a 56% increase like you suggest. It is a 37% over last year, but you are comparing that to his lowest output of his career as well.

From 3-10 ft, he has averaged 48.6% from this range over the last 2 years and is now at 50.5%. If he were to drop 2% on those shots it would have almost no impact on his efficiency, as 2% on only 29% of his overall shots will have next to no impact (like, a half percent).

I'm not sure how I'm misinterpreting a stat that is :

Percentage of FGA by distance.

And seeing 0-3 go up from 19.2% to 30%.

[YogurtProducer]

His 2p% increase is inflated by a 56% increase in 0-3ft shot volume, and he's currently scoring at his career average 71%, he's also shooting 3% better on his 3-10ft shots on the same volume.

I wouldn't be super surprised if he sustains it at a higher % than last season (52.3% vs 57%), but I also wouldn't be surprised if his 0-3ft success rate dips a bit as generally when there is a large increase to volume, efficiency takes a dip. All in all if he keeps up the same diet, he'll probably sustain a better 2p% than last year.

The question is by how much, his 3-10ft is a career high and if regression is a thing, then he's gonna drop a couple % and it might all even out.

You are heavily misinterpreting these stats.

His 0-3ft shot volume has decreased as a % of his overall shot profile. Below is his FGA from 0-3ft over the last 5 years

2018 - 4.76
2019 - 5.09
2020 - 4.14
2021 - 3.84
2022 - 3.55
2023 - 4.86

Taking this many shots close to the rim is no uncharted territory for Siakam as he has taken that many rim shots before (on 72.2% and 70.3% respectively). He has taken more this year, but no where near a 56% increase like you suggest. It is a 37% over last year, but you are comparing that to his lowest output of his career as well.

From 3-10 ft, he has averaged 48.6% from this range over the last 2 years and is now at 50.5%. If he were to drop 2% on those shots it would have almost no impact on his efficiency, as 2% on only 29% of his overall shots will have next to no impact (like, a half percent).

I'm not sure how I'm misinterpreting a stat that is :

Percentage of FGA by distance.

And seeing 0-3 go up from 19.2% to 30%.

Think of it like this.

Player A takes 5 shots at the rim and 5 shots from 3. 50% of his shots come at the rim
Player B takes 5 shots at the rim and 0 shots from 3. 100% of his shots come at the rim.

Would it be fair the say Player A takes 200% more shots at the rim as Player B? No.

Siakam's %'s have gone up at the rim but a BIG reason is simply because he is taking significantly less from the mid-range. All things considered, his volume elsewhere has not changed.

[Scase]

You are heavily misinterpreting these stats.

His 0-3ft shot volume has decreased as a % of his overall shot profile. Below is his FGA from 0-3ft over the last 5 years

2018 - 4.76
2019 - 5.09
2020 - 4.14
2021 - 3.84
2022 - 3.55
2023 - 4.86

Taking this many shots close to the rim is no uncharted territory for Siakam as he has taken that many rim shots before (on 72.2% and 70.3% respectively). He has taken more this year, but no where near a 56% increase like you suggest. It is a 37% over last year, but you are comparing that to his lowest output of his career as well.

From 3-10 ft, he has averaged 48.6% from this range over the last 2 years and is now at 50.5%. If he were to drop 2% on those shots it would have almost no impact on his efficiency, as 2% on only 29% of his overall shots will have next to no impact (like, a half percent).

I'm not sure how I'm misinterpreting a stat that is :

Percentage of FGA by distance.

And seeing 0-3 go up from 19.2% to 30%.

Think of it like this.

Player A takes 5 shots at the rim and 5 shots from 3. 50% of his shots come at the rim
Player B takes 5 shots at the rim and 0 shots from 3. 100% of his shots come at the rim.

Would it be fair the say Player A takes 200% more shots at the rim as Player B? No.

Siakam's %'s have gone up at the rim but a BIG reason is simply because he is taking significantly less from the mid-range. All things considered, his volume elsewhere has not changed.

Ah I gotchu, you're talking about raw numbers, yeah that makes more sense. By proxy of him taking less 10ft-3p shots he's in general taking better shots. He's still shooting well above his career average from 3-10ft so I can still see that coming down. But I get what you're saying about this being relatively sustainable.

I'd like to see his splits against teams with good paint defence, cause I imagine (based on the eye test) he suffers pretty badly overall against them, and since he's now borderline useless from range, that limits the team offence pretty badly.

[YogurtProducer]

I'm not sure how I'm misinterpreting a stat that is :

Percentage of FGA by distance.

And seeing 0-3 go up from 19.2% to 30%.

Think of it like this.

Player A takes 5 shots at the rim and 5 shots from 3. 50% of his shots come at the rim
Player B takes 5 shots at the rim and 0 shots from 3. 100% of his shots come at the rim.

Would it be fair the say Player A takes 200% more shots at the rim as Player B? No.

Siakam's %'s have gone up at the rim but a BIG reason is simply because he is taking significantly less from the mid-range. All things considered, his volume elsewhere has not changed.

Ah I gotchu, you're talking about raw numbers, yeah that makes more sense. By proxy of him taking less 10ft-3p shots he's in general taking better shots. He's still shooting well above his career average from 3-10ft so I can still see that coming down. But I get what you're saying about this being relatively sustainable.

I'd like to see his splits against teams with good paint defence, cause I imagine (based on the eye test) he suffers pretty badly overall against them, and since he's now borderline useless from range, that limits the team offence pretty badly.

Is he shooting "well above his career average"? Sure, technically he is, but he also has shot 49.8% and 47.4% from 3-10feet for two years now, and 50.5% is not materially different from those figures. He might drop back to the high 40s, but 2-3% on those shots on his overall efficiency is going to have next to no impact.

But yeah, a guy who gets the majority of his work close to the hoop is gonna have worse #'s vs good paint defenses (which in general are just good defenses in general)

[Scase]

Think of it like this.

Player A takes 5 shots at the rim and 5 shots from 3. 50% of his shots come at the rim
Player B takes 5 shots at the rim and 0 shots from 3. 100% of his shots come at the rim.

Would it be fair the say Player A takes 200% more shots at the rim as Player B? No.

Siakam's %'s have gone up at the rim but a BIG reason is simply because he is taking significantly less from the mid-range. All things considered, his volume elsewhere has not changed.

Ah I gotchu, you're talking about raw numbers, yeah that makes more sense. By proxy of him taking less 10ft-3p shots he's in general taking better shots. He's still shooting well above his career average from 3-10ft so I can still see that coming down. But I get what you're saying about this being relatively sustainable.

I'd like to see his splits against teams with good paint defence, cause I imagine (based on the eye test) he suffers pretty badly overall against them, and since he's now borderline useless from range, that limits the team offence pretty badly.

Is he shooting "well above his career average"? Sure, technically he is, but he also has shot 49.8% and 47.4% from 3-10feet for two years now, and 50.5% is not materially different from those figures. He might drop back to the high 40s, but 2-3% on those shots on his overall efficiency is going to have next to no impact.

But yeah, a guy who gets the majority of his work close to the hoop is gonna have worse #'s vs good paint defenses (which in general are just good defenses in general)

Yeah I'm not saying he's going to crater, but some drop off wouldnt be surprising. At the end of the day, he needs to get better from range as it's hurting the team.

[TRik]

At the end of the day, regardless of his percentages closer to the basket, this thread is about his current 3 point percentage and it absolutely sucks.

The most important thing to me in this, is that if Masai decided to gamble and hold onto Pascal until the trade deadline to see if offers improve… Then Pascal coming out and shooting %19 from 3 means the decision to gamble probably isn’t going to pay off. In today’s NBA, teams want forwards that can space the floor… especially if a forward is going to be asking for the max.

[YogurtProducer]

At the end of the day, regardless of his percentages closer to the basket, this thread is about his current 3 point percentage and it absolutely sucks.

The most important thing to me in this, is that if Masai decided to gamble and hold onto Pascal until the trade deadline to see if offers improve… Then Pascal coming out and shooting %19 from 3 means the decision to gamble probably isn’t going to pay off. In today’s NBA, teams want forwards that can space the floor… especially if a forward is going to be asking for the max.

Siakam would be a terrific buy low for a team with a spacing5.

Indiana is a perfect fit. If MIN did not have Gobert, KAT is a great partner. DEN with Jokic obviously. MEM with JJJ playing the 5. etc.

He is currently in about the worst fit possible for his skillset, but if he got to play in a 5-out offense (say like he did here in 2019-20) he would look really damn good as a 2nd star on a team with adequate shooting.

[TRik]

At the end of the day, regardless of his percentages closer to the basket, this thread is about his current 3 point percentage and it absolutely sucks.

The most important thing to me in this, is that if Masai decided to gamble and hold onto Pascal until the trade deadline to see if offers improve… Then Pascal coming out and shooting %19 from 3 means the decision to gamble probably isn’t going to pay off. In today’s NBA, teams want forwards that can space the floor… especially if a forward is going to be asking for the max.

Siakam would be a terrific buy low for a team with a spacing5.

Indiana is a perfect fit. If MIN did not have Gobert, KAT is a great partner. DEN with Jokic obviously. MEM with JJJ playing the 5. etc.

He is currently in about the worst fit possible for his skillset, but if he got to play in a 5-out offense (say like he did here in 2019-20) he would look really damn good as a 2nd star on a team with adequate shooting.

Definitely there are better fits elsewhere, I’m just saying him shooting %19 most definitely is not raising his trade value…. Regardless of the teams that might have interest.

I do like him in Indiana, but I’d imagine they keep Buddy in that scenario for the spacing so package would maybe be around Ben and Andrew and other spare parts.

[refshateRaps]

Needless to say trade high is out the window here

[YogurtProducer]

At the end of the day, regardless of his percentages closer to the basket, this thread is about his current 3 point percentage and it absolutely sucks.

The most important thing to me in this, is that if Masai decided to gamble and hold onto Pascal until the trade deadline to see if offers improve… Then Pascal coming out and shooting %19 from 3 means the decision to gamble probably isn’t going to pay off. In today’s NBA, teams want forwards that can space the floor… especially if a forward is going to be asking for the max.

Siakam would be a terrific buy low for a team with a spacing5.

Indiana is a perfect fit. If MIN did not have Gobert, KAT is a great partner. DEN with Jokic obviously. MEM with JJJ playing the 5. etc.

He is currently in about the worst fit possible for his skillset, but if he got to play in a 5-out offense (say like he did here in 2019-20) he would look really damn good as a 2nd star on a team with adequate shooting.

Definitely there are better fits elsewhere, I’m just saying him shooting %19 most definitely is not raising his trade value…. Regardless of the teams that might have interest.

I do like him in Indiana, but I’d imagine they keep Buddy in that scenario for the spacing so package would maybe be around Ben and Andrew and other spare parts.

I dont think any team is any more less excited about Siakam right now than they would have been last season. No one is bringing in Siakam to shoot 3's, and he is fundamentally the same player in the midst of a cold streak. In the right 4 out system teams might tell him to actively stop shooting them all together (kind of like Aaron Gordon in Denver)

Siakam would be a hell of a lot of fun on a 4-out super shooting team though. He was pretty good in that role in 2019-20 and he is just all around better today than he was then.

[GreatWhiteStiff]

His 3 just looks totally broken this year, it's beyond bizarre. He wasn't ever good but it wasn't this bad.

It really sucks because so much of our success was dependent on both him and Scottie stretching the floor. Scottie is doing his part...

I mean his 3rd and 4th years in the league he was 36 and 37% or maybe the opposite. Those were his first years he really even explored shooting the three or specced more heavily into it. To go from that to the worst three point shooting of all time is a drop off.

[TRik]

Siakam would be a terrific buy low for a team with a spacing5.

Indiana is a perfect fit. If MIN did not have Gobert, KAT is a great partner. DEN with Jokic obviously. MEM with JJJ playing the 5. etc.

He is currently in about the worst fit possible for his skillset, but if he got to play in a 5-out offense (say like he did here in 2019-20) he would look really damn good as a 2nd star on a team with adequate shooting.

Definitely there are better fits elsewhere, I’m just saying him shooting %19 most definitely is not raising his trade value…. Regardless of the teams that might have interest.

I do like him in Indiana, but I’d imagine they keep Buddy in that scenario for the spacing so package would maybe be around Ben and Andrew and other spare parts.

I dont think any team is any more less excited about Siakam right now than they would have been last season. No one is bringing in Siakam to shoot 3's, and he is fundamentally the same player in the midst of a cold streak. In the right 4 out system teams might tell him to actively stop shooting them all together (kind of like Aaron Gordon in Denver)

Siakam would be a hell of a lot of fun on a 4-out super shooting team though. He was pretty good in that role in 2019-20 and he is just all around better today than he was then.

Good clarification. I was scratching my head when you were saying 5 out.

[mrdressup]

All those misses are turnovers in my book.