The 2025 NBA draft is less than two months away (June 25-26) and now that we know who might be hearing their names called out, it's time to look at how the top 30 prospects project statistically.
To no surprise, Duke's Cooper Flagg is the top-ranked prospect by my model, which combines translated statistical performance in the NCAA or non-NBA professional leagues with age and a player's rank in ESPN's top 100 prospects to estimate their long-term value.
It's not just Flagg who excels, however. Three other freshmen, including his teammate Kon Knueppel, rank in the top 10 of the stats-only version of my projections as well as the top 100. When there's that kind of consensus on the top prospects, players typically translate well to the NBA. For more on how my model works, click here.
With that, let's get to the top 30 projections among players currently ranked in ESPN's top 100 after the deadline for early entrants to declare, including a few unexpected names.
1. Cooper Flagg, F, Duke
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 1
Consensus: 5.3 WARP
As I wrote in a story with Tim Bontemps about the creative efforts to avoid winning we saw late in the NBA regular season, the question with Flagg is less whether he's the top prospect this year and more where he stacks up historically. Besides the two No. 1 picks with better projections than Flagg (Anthony Davis and Zion Williamson), Luka Doncic is the only other player to rate better in terms of my consensus model. Flagg is the lone player in this year's draft who doesn't rate 15% worse than the average NBA-bound college prospect at his position in any of the categories I use to determine strengths and weaknesses.
2. Kon Knueppel, G/F, Duke
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 2
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Having Flagg's teammate just behind him is a more surprising outcome. Based strictly on college performance, Knueppel would drop a few spots, more in line with where he ranks in the top 100 (No. 9).
However, Knueppel had the strongest projection of any prospect who participated in the Nike EYBL AAU competition in either 2022 or 2023. He posted a .642 true shooting percentage on 35% usage in 2023, suggesting more shot creation potential than we saw alongside other talented prospects at Duke.
3. VJ Edgecombe, SG, Baylor
Top 100: No. 4
Stats: No. 4
Consensus: 3.9 WARP
Along with Flagg, Edgecombe is the second prospect in this year's class who ranks in the top five by both my stats-only model and the top 100, typically a powerful combo. Although Edgecombe's offensive efficiency in his lone season at Baylor was middling (50% shooting on 2s and 34% on 3s), he filled out the box score. Edgecombe projects at least 15% better than the typical NBA-bound college shooting guard in terms of rebound, block and steal rate. That defensive potential should give Edgecombe a high floor, while his development as a shooter will define his upside.
4. Dylan Harper, G, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 7
Consensus: 3.7 WARP
Harper is on the flip side of the comparison with Knueppel. He had a stronger college freshman season, averaging 19.4 PPG, 4.6 RPG and 4.0 APG on fine efficiency given his large role in the Rutgers offense (29% usage rate). Yet Harper wasn't quite as effective in EYBL play, and incorporating those stats flipped Knueppel ahead. In particular, Harper excelled as a college finisher, shooting 57% on 2-point attempts -- best of any perimeter one-and-done prospect.
5. Isaiah Evans, SG, Duke
Top 100: No. 43
Stats: No. 3
Consensus: 3.0 WARP
This projection looks strange to me, too. Evans averaged 13.8 MPG off the bench for the Blue Devils, yet my model is excited about his potential as a shooter. That's got relatively little to do with Evans' 42% 3-point accuracy, since the small sample (149 attempts) means his NBA projection is regressed heavily to the mean. However, the 12 3-point attempts Evans launched per 40 minutes give him the highest shooting projection of any one-and-done player in my database. Given how little Evans contributes beyond shooting, he'll have to be elite to be an NBA rotation player. Ideally, he'll return for a larger role as a sophomore and we'll get more data to use.
Duke will be well represented in this year's NBA draft, but will Isaiah Evans make that leap now? Bob Donnan-Imagn Images
6. Jeremiah Fears, PG, Oklahoma
Top 100: No. 5
Stats: No. 20
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
Fears was an offensive engine at Oklahoma. His 31.5% usage was highest for any major-conference freshman, per Stathead.com, just ahead of Flagg. Given that load, Fears' ability to score with average efficiency was impressive. Still, in order to justify a similarly large role in the NBA, Fears will have to improve on 28% 3-point shooting. One encouraging sign: Fears shot 85% on free throws, an important indicator for NBA 3-point accuracy.
7. Ace Bailey, PF, Rutgers
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 27
Consensus: 2.9 WARP
In a year where the top prospects mostly rated well statistically, Bailey was an exception. In particular, Bailey's shotmaking ability did not translate to good efficiency because of his difficult shot diet. Per CBBAnalytics.com, 36% of Bailey's shot attempts were non-paint 2-pointers, ranking in the 99th percentile nationally. And while Bailey hit those at a reasonable 43% clip, that's far less valuable than the effective 52% he shot on 3s after accounting for the additional point. In the right system, Bailey could emerge as an offensive playmaker, but the wrong team might be unable to maximize his skills.
8. Noa Essengue, PF, Ratiopharm Ulm (Germany)
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 8
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
Now that Essengue has moved into lottery territory, it's hard to call him a sleeper, but he's still not quite as high as his stats-only projection would suggest as the top international prospect in the draft. In the competitive EuroCup, Essengue has averaged 14.4 PPG and 5.3 RPG in just 23.7 MPG, shooting 66% on 2-point attempts. That's come against much older competition. Essengue won't turn 19 until December, making him the second-youngest prospect in the top 100 after Flagg.
9. Collin Murray-Boyles, PF, South Carolina
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 14
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
The production from Murray-Boyles in Year 2 at South Carolina was too good for scouts to overlook. In the nation's strongest conference, Murray-Boyles averaged 16.8 PPG and 8.3 RPG with the highest effective field goal percentage (60%) in the SEC. At 6-foot-7, Murray-Boyles is small for a big, but he filled out the box score with seven strengths according to my model -- most of any prospect, just ahead of Flagg's six. (Memphis guard PJ Haggerty, who didn't crack the top 30, also has six strengths but more weaknesses.)
10. Kasparas Jakucionis, PG, Illinois
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 22
Consensus: 2.6 WARP
There's a lot to like about Jakucionis offensively. A tough finisher, he made 56% of his 2s, excellent for a guard. Additionally, Jakucionis' 84.5% accuracy at the foul line suggests he could improve on his 32% 3-point shooting at Illinois to go with his playmaking. The concern lies on defense. Jakucionis has a below-average steal rate for a guard and blocked just nine shots all season.
11. Egor Demin, PG, BYU
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 19
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Demin's combination of court vision and size (6-foot-9) to create passing lanes gives him the third-best assist projection among prospects in the top 100. Like Jakucionis, Demin was also a strong finisher from the backcourt thanks to his size, hitting 55% of his 2-point attempts. However, there's less reason for optimism about Demin as a shooter. Not only did he make 27% of his 3-point attempts, Demin was a hair under 70% at the foul line.
12. Tre Johnson, SG, Texas
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 30
Consensus: 2.4 WARP
Johnson's volume scoring is the kind of skill set that tends not to fare well in my projections. Usage is his only strength, while Johnson was well below average in terms of rebounding, steals and blocks. The swing skill is just how efficient Johnson can be as a scorer. He faired acceptably at the college level thanks to 40% 3-point shooting but was less effective in EYBL play. Johnson shot just 34% on 3s in the 2023 EYBL campaign.
