2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2

[God Squad]

People just overthinking him. He's got way more potential than a 2 back surgery MPJ.
When Cooper was struggling to start the year everyone was ready to give him grace for just being a 17year old why can't Ace get the same opportunity to grow as player in a even worse team situation.

This isn't a real question is it? Even when Cooper was struggling to shoot he was the far superior player. Ace has been playing much better and I'm starting to warm up to the idea.

It is a serious question. The college season is long and people were making final decisions talking about their "off ace" in the middle of December.

It's was valid to be concerned about Ace to begin the season, it's valid to be worried now. I'm just now warming up on the idea of drafting Ace, but that's because over his last 3 games he's played arguably his best. As a result, his BPM is up to a 5.1 (yes I'm aware his BPM will fluctuate).

He's just playing better than he was previously and by a large margin. But I'll agree with the fact that we shouldn't be writing off the kid when there are plenty of games remaining.

[Psubs]

If the Raptors end up adding Flemming and both Ivisic brothers I wouldn't be mad.

Outside top 4, trade it with the Por 2nd for #10, #17(Atl), #40

#10 Flemming
#17 Tomislav Ivisic
#40 Zvonimir Ivisic

All the bigs that can shoot the 3.

PG IQ - Shead - Jakobe
SG Dick - Ochai - Jakobe
SF Barrett - Mogbo/Battle
PF Scottie - Flemming - Chomche
C Poeltl - Tomislav - Zvonimir

[dTox]

I am so damn jealous of these Thunder

Read on Twitter

[ItsDanger]

Ace bailey's BPM is above 5 suddenly after a few good games. Shows you the flaws in this stat: risks of small sample, and these are young/improving players.

[Clutch0z24]

All the Ace hate i seen the same kinda posts here about Wemby before he got drafted...."Hes going to be injured his whole career", "Hes not going to be able to shoot in the NBA", "Hes too skinny for the NBA" alot of posters were even saying Wemby has bust potential....And there was no reason to tank for him because he won't be a generational or good enough...

Reminds me of the same kinda ppl hating on Bailey when its only half way in the season....And when Bailey gets in the NBA lighting it up the same posters will be here hating on the next prospect in the same way....You can't write off a player who is so young with that kind of a skill set...

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Read on Twitter

Very Donovan Mitchell-esque how he easily splits defenders

[ATLTimekeeper]

Ace bailey's BPM is above 5 suddenly after a few good games. Shows you the flaws in this stat: risks of small sample, and these are young/improving players.

Nah it doesn't show a flaw in the stat. He has improved his play and it's measured by the stat. People should make decisions based on available information at the time. Players can improve and also regress.

[ArthurVandelay]

Ace bailey's BPM is above 5 suddenly after a few good games. Shows you the flaws in this stat: risks of small sample, and these are young/improving players.

Nah it doesn't show a flaw in the stat. He has improved his play and it's measured by the stat. People should make decisions based on available information at the time. Players can improve and also regress.

That is the magic of drafting.

If it was just what the stats say, no one would miss.

It’s also about projection. Ace was/is going against all my fav stats. Just too much in the situation at Rutgers and his physical abilities and skill set to ignore.

[Ell Curry]

Heading into the new year, Ace Bailey's BPM was 0.6 after his first 11 college games according to Torvik. It has now shot up to 4.3 after his first 5 games of 2025. In those last 5 games his BPM is 12.4.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&year=2025&kw=ace%20bailey&start=20250101&end=20250501

This is exactly what Bailey skeptics such as myself wanted to see. For me especially, 3 of his biggest red flags are his low AST%, bad AST/TO ratio, and low FTr for his position/size (below 30%). During this heater he's been on all of this stuff has been improving, which is great to see.

Good to hear. 39% chance of a top 3 pick right now to get one of Flagg, Harper or Bailey.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Ace bailey's BPM is above 5 suddenly after a few good games. Shows you the flaws in this stat: risks of small sample, and these are young/improving players.

Nah it doesn't show a flaw in the stat. He has improved his play and it's measured by the stat. People should make decisions based on available information at the time. Players can improve and also regress.

That is the magic of drafting.

If it was just what the stats say, no one would miss.

It’s also about projection. Ace was/is going against all my fav stats. Just too much in the situation at Rutgers and his physical abilities and skill set to ignore.

It's not even magic. That particular number is just something to consider at the end of the year in terms of rating the likelihood of someone becoming a star.

If you want to actually think about how misleading projection can be, just sit back and reflect on how often you have placed high hopes on rookies on the Raptors based on a good early showing.

We know the draft is inefficient, and that at the top even good drafting organizations blow it badly.

[tsherkin]

We know the draft is inefficient, and that at the top even good drafting organizations blow it badly.

This. The draft is, in essence, a crapshoot where you just hope you get something good. You can try to stack odds in your favor, but ultimately, there are just too many variables for players who don't consistently pan out. It is what it is.

[Syd-TK3]

Read on Twitter

Very Donovan Mitchell-esque how he easily splits defenders

Main reason why I can't have a guy like Kasparas over him

[TNRaps4life]

Heading into the new year, Ace Bailey's BPM was 0.6 after his first 11 college games according to Torvik. It has now shot up to 4.3 after his first 5 games of 2025. In those last 5 games his BPM is 12.4.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&year=2025&kw=ace%20bailey&start=20250101&end=20250501

This is exactly what Bailey skeptics such as myself wanted to see. For me especially, 3 of his biggest red flags are his low AST%, bad AST/TO ratio, and low FTr for his position/size (below 30%). During this heater he's been on all of this stuff has been improving, which is great to see.

Good to hear. 39% chance of a top 3 pick right now to get one of Flagg, Harper or Bailey.

That is why drafting is not a science only. The eye test matters a lot too. I have always been a believer because I have followed him from high school. Sometimes I am the lonely one here. Kid got the work ethic that does not show in stats and loves the game.

[billy_hoyle]

Ace bailey's BPM is above 5 suddenly after a few good games. Shows you the flaws in this stat: risks of small sample, and these are young/improving players.

Nah it doesn't show a flaw in the stat. He has improved his play and it's measured by the stat. People should make decisions based on available information at the time. Players can improve and also regress.

The stat is lagging. How is that not a flaw?

Extremely well regarded High school prospect, starts collegiate career with an injury. Goes on to play raw stat filled basketball on low efficiency for a team that isn't winning. Eye test is still there, as he's able to do things and hits shots that are ++ degree of difficulty. His ++ body is projectable (i.e he has great dimensions for his skill set, and looks like he will add lean muscle).

The stat was unable to predict that he would go from 0.3 BPM to over 5 in a few weeks.

As others have said, it is not predictive on small sample sizes.

If the draft was held at the 1/3rd mark of the NCAA season, you would have declared him almost certain bust and a 100% do not draft. Which is your stance from last month.

[ArthurVandelay]

Nah it doesn't show a flaw in the stat. He has improved his play and it's measured by the stat. People should make decisions based on available information at the time. Players can improve and also regress.

That is the magic of drafting.

If it was just what the stats say, no one would miss.

It’s also about projection. Ace was/is going against all my fav stats. Just too much in the situation at Rutgers and his physical abilities and skill set to ignore.

It's not even magic. That particular number is just something to consider at the end of the year in terms of rating the likelihood of someone becoming a star.

If you want to actually think about how misleading projection can be, just sit back and reflect on how often you have placed high hopes on rookies on the Raptors based on a good early showing.

We know the draft is inefficient, and that at the top even good drafting organizations blow it badly.

I don’t have the inclination to dig up receipts but there were plenty of posts here trashing Ace due to his early/mid season BPM.

Now we have to patient and wait to end of season?

Since when has Raptors RealGM ever been patient to form an opinion?

[Yallbecrazy]

Let him stay underrated Silver not gonna give us 1st pick anyways we'll pick him up later

Ace's ceiling look to be a MPJ

but just too many red flags about his game - he's really high ceiling, low floor

People just overthinking him. He's got way more potential than a 2 back surgery MPJ.
When Cooper was struggling to start the year everyone was ready to give him grace for just being a 17year old why can't Ace get the same opportunity to grow as player in a even worse team situation.

Cooper struggling with shooting was still putting up a 12 bpm and was still one of the best players in all of college basketball because of how he impacted the game beyond shooting.

Ace doesn't do much outside of shooting.

[mtcan]

That is the magic of drafting.

If it was just what the stats say, no one would miss.

It’s also about projection. Ace was/is going against all my fav stats. Just too much in the situation at Rutgers and his physical abilities and skill set to ignore.

It's not even magic. That particular number is just something to consider at the end of the year in terms of rating the likelihood of someone becoming a star.

If you want to actually think about how misleading projection can be, just sit back and reflect on how often you have placed high hopes on rookies on the Raptors based on a good early showing.

We know the draft is inefficient, and that at the top even good drafting organizations blow it badly.

I don’t have the inclination to dig up receipts but there were plenty of posts here trashing Ace due to his early/mid season BPM.

Now we have to patient and wait to end of season?

Since when has Raptors RealGM ever been patient to form an opinion?

Oh ya for sure.

Earlier in this long thread...people were concerned regarding Cooper Flagg's 29% 3 pt%...but he's been shooting it a lot better recently such that it's up to 35% now. He's definitely consensus #1.

I think Harper's done a lot to cement himself as de facto #2 but his scoring has regressed to the mean...but still a very high level scorer and playmaker but he isn't dropping back-to-back 30+pt performances now like he did a month and a half ago.

Ace has been hot and cold for me. This past week, he has impressed by showing his rebounding, shot blocking and now some passing to go along with his shot making.

Kasparas to me, is #3. Ace is my pick #4.

I'd be happy with any of these 4, to be honest. It's once you pass #4...the field is just so mixed in terms of opinions. It is conceivable that the group of Tre Johnson, Khaman Maluach and VJ Edgecombe end up somewhere to round out the top 7. I'm out on VJ because for a guard that's a little undersized...his shaky shooting is a concern.

[Syd-TK3]

Ace's ceiling look to be a MPJ

but just too many red flags about his game - he's really high ceiling, low floor

People just overthinking him. He's got way more potential than a 2 back surgery MPJ.
When Cooper was struggling to start the year everyone was ready to give him grace for just being a 17year old why can't Ace get the same opportunity to grow as player in a even worse team situation.

Cooper struggling with shooting was still putting up a 12 bpm and was still one of the best players in all of college basketball because of how he impacted the game beyond shooting.

Ace doesn't do much outside of shooting.

Yall are definitely misunderstanding the point, this isn't about how cooper looked vs Ace literally just pointing out that teenage kids clearly can get better as the season goes on especially when one is in a far worse team context.

[RoteSchroder]

Too many rebounds and blocks to be GTJr.

Hard to argue with that top 4. All of them could be game changers for us.

That’s why it’s 6’10 GTJr and not GTJr

6’10 GTJr wouldn’t be rebounding or getting any blocks. Other than steals dude was not it on defense. Ace tries on defense which is a plus because he at least will do things to stay on the floor if his shot isn’t falling (something Gary couldn’t do because he’d often only put up points and nothing else)

Oh how we forget. Peak GTJr was a master thief and good defender. 1.7 steals per game. Just convert that into blocks, it's not a big deal.

They're both polarizing.
Good shooters.
Mainly generate bad shots.
Up and down scoring/efficiency.
Tunnel vision.
Sub-par ball-handling.
Explosive scorers.

MPJr, not polarizing at all, for instance. He's mainly an off-ball player, zero 40 point games in his entire career.

Peak Gary in his 18 PPG season had nine 30+ point games with 2 games over 40 points. Just kick it up a notch for Bailey's upside. Add +10 to everything. 28 PPG with 40+ and 50+ games. You don't see MPJr doing that.

[RoteSchroder]

Ace bailey's BPM is above 5 suddenly after a few good games. Shows you the flaws in this stat: risks of small sample, and these are young/improving players.

Nah it doesn't show a flaw in the stat. He has improved his play and it's measured by the stat. People should make decisions based on available information at the time. Players can improve and also regress.

That is the magic of drafting.

If it was just what the stats say, no one would miss.

It’s also about projection. Ace was/is going against all my fav stats. Just too much in the situation at Rutgers and his physical abilities and skill set to ignore.

For the most part, it seems like low BPM is a fairly reliable indicator on players not to draft. Not that it's even close to fullproof, but combined with other factors, you could probably put together a good drafting strategy (e.g. advanced stats seems to be a part of Masai's drafting strategy, not to mention the use of IBM Watson pretty much completely relies on stats).

On top of that: Ace strings together some good games, BPM goes up. He puts together some bad games, BPM goes down.

Not sure why that means the stat is flawed in this context..in fact, it makes it seem fairly reliable. (Note: the stat is flawed, but not in the way the OP indicated)