2024 NBA DRAFT THREAD 5

[CazOnReal]

And it's not like Edey is a 23 or 24 year old senior, he's a young 22 on draft night. There's room for development and there are solid reports on his shooting. If he starts popping off screens and adding in some 3 point shots here and there to keep defenses honest it's going to be awesome because the popping will keep defenders honest for the roll and lob catch at the rim. You can't put it past him because he has solid touch on his FT's with a nice high arc that usually increases the floor of the % of makes and should be indicative of at least the ability to be near average at hitting jumpers.

Edey is not a brick thrower he actually has some real touch on his shot, he needs to practice his ass off but there's something there unlike many centers who enter the league shooting 50-60% from the line with broken form.

Is "young 22" how people coped when Koloko was drafted at the same age? 22 is as close to as old as you can get before you no longer have to go through the draft to get in to the NBA.

There's only a handful of players who'll be older than Edey on draft night (Knecht is the only one that comes to mind).

Siakam, FVV, and where all 22 when they drafted and they all kept progressing.

The guy we all wanted Sacramento to trade to us (Keegan Murray) was 22 when he was drafted. Just because a guy goes 4 years in college, does not mean he's old and he cannot improve, and he has no potential.

You forgot the part where all 3 of those guys are the exception to the rule. Most older players have a career like Chris Duarte and Davion Mitchell are having rather than Pascal Siakam ie they are likely to be low-ceiling prospects who don't become more than roleplayers.

It's significantly more likely the outcome for Edey is a bench player than a starter-caliber big man, let alone a star player.

[XTC]

Is "young 22" how people coped when Koloko was drafted at the same age? 22 is as close to as old as you can get before you no longer have to go through the draft to get in to the NBA.

There's only a handful of players who'll be older than Edey on draft night (Knecht is the only one that comes to mind).

Siakam, FVV, and where all 22 when they drafted and they all kept progressing.

The guy we all wanted Sacramento to trade to us (Keegan Murray) was 22 when he was drafted. Just because a guy goes 4 years in college, does not mean he's old and he cannot improve, and he has no potential.

You forgot the part where all 3 of those guys are the exception to the rule. Most older players have a career like Chris Duarte and Davion Mitchell are having rather than Pascal Siakam ie they are likely to be low-ceiling prospects who don't become more than roleplayers.

It's significantly more likely the outcome for Edey is a bench player than a starter-caliber big man, let alone a star player.

Most players taken after the lottery are most likely to become bench players... Especially at #19

Edey won't be become a bench player just because he's 22. People and teams are excited about Edey because he's gotten better every single season, dominated the guy who is supposedly a top 3 pick this season (Clingan), and his body has been improving the last couple years, which is evident by his stamina (dude is a work horse), and his surprisingly decent combine numbers (which have improved year by year)

Dude is far from a finished product. I don't even think we're going to have a chance to draft him, he's going lottery IMO, and I personally think he's going to end up one of the better players in the draft,

[BoyzNTheHood]

Is "young 22" how people coped when Koloko was drafted at the same age? 22 is as close to as old as you can get before you no longer have to go through the draft to get in to the NBA.

There's only a handful of players who'll be older than Edey on draft night (Knecht is the only one that comes to mind).

Siakam, FVV, and where all 22 when they drafted and they all kept progressing.

The guy we all wanted Sacramento to trade to us (Keegan Murray) was 22 when he was drafted. Just because a guy goes 4 years in college, does not mean he's old and he cannot improve, and he has no potential.

You forgot the part where all 3 of those guys are the exception to the rule. Most older players have a career like Chris Duarte and Davion Mitchell are having rather than Pascal Siakam ie they are likely to be low-ceiling prospects who don't become more than roleplayers.

It's significantly more likely the outcome for Edey is a bench player than a starter-caliber big man, let alone a star player.

What are you even talking about? Successful NBA players are the exception to the rule in general. The average NBA player only plays 4.5 years. So why wouldn't you take the guy who has proven himself at the highest level pre-NBA?

Neither Duarte nor Mitchell were ever Edey level prospects. People convinced themselves Mitchell could be like Donovan, which he never was. Duarte was a massive reach at the time. And news flash, the MAJORITY of the players in the NBA are bench players. Ask the 2023 Raptors how much a solid bench matters.

[Risk101]

Nikola Djurisic: 'I would say I'm like a less athletic, taller Anthony Edwards'
https://hoopshype.com/lists/nikola-djurisic-i-would-say-im-like-a-less-athletic-taller-anthony-edwards/

Watch on YouTube

[YoungG]

Just some perspective on this 'bad' draft.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/19th-overall-draft-picks-nba

If we land Edey, Filipowski, Ware, Bub, whatever at #19, the BEST we can likely hope for is that he winds up being as good as the top two players on this list. Odds are, #19 in this draft winds up looking closer like the bottom half of the players on this list.

So if someone thinks (Edey, Filipowski, Ware, Bub, whatever) can even be a good rotation player, or a great situational player, or a sixth or seventh man, then that should be good enough to take them. Don't cross your fingers and hope you are drafting a Gianis or Jokic at this level.

I agree 1000%. I just don't think it's smart to look at any of these players as "how can 'x' become a star level type player?" The correct question to ask is, "How can 'x' player compliment Scottie Barnes and the young core?" Every player in this draft has their question marks, and most may never end up being anything more than serviceable players, and that's ok. The Raptors need to draft based on the needs of Barnes and the needs of getting the coaching staff's ideology to play at its optimal.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Edey can be a much more dominant offensive player than JV since JV doesn't get to the charity stripe a lot and if so his defense is more excusable.

As much as people want to think the modern NBA is all about 3 pointers the fact remains analytically that the FT line is #1, rim is #2 and 3 point line is #3 in terms of most efficient areas to score from and so there's no reason that a creative team can't find a way to make Edey their offensive centerpiece without compromising what mathematics tells you is necessary to win a game.

The question is how much gravity will Edey carry in the post and how proficient will he become at enabling perimeter shooters. But there HAS to be creative ways to use him just as all NBA teams find ways to enable their stars.

For one I think Edey would fit like a GLOVE in Portland and would synergize very well with Scoot Henderson given what Scoot is actually decent at on the court. You would need to then just surround them with some defensive minded wings and you're good to go IMO. Imagine a Scoot-Flagg-Edey lineup going forward. Edey could save Scoot's career with his screening and soft hands.

Doesn't Portland have DeAndre Ayton who screens and boards and does all the big man things? He is not Edey's size but he is pretty close to it. I actually think it is worth bringing up Ayton as an example of how the dominant big man can fail to equal success. Ayton and guys like Nurkic all look physical and put up big numbers, but they just don't add up to wins. A guy like Klingan is thought to be number one because he can actually defend and pass beyond the offensive scoring in the paint.

I will give Edey props that he helped Purdue's shooters as people sucked into the paint, but the lack of three in the key is a factor. He will have to adjust to the rule in the NBA.

Ayton isn't what I'd call a dominant traditional 5 so I would fundamentally disagree with your argument. Edey's potential FTr., ORB% and USG% gives him a much higher ceiling for offensive production and efficiency.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Edey can be a much more dominant offensive player than JV since JV doesn't get to the charity stripe a lot and if so his defense is more excusable.

As much as people want to think the modern NBA is all about 3 pointers the fact remains analytically that the FT line is #1, rim is #2 and 3 point line is #3 in terms of most efficient areas to score from and so there's no reason that a creative team can't find a way to make Edey their offensive centerpiece without compromising what mathematics tells you is necessary to win a game.

The question is how much gravity will Edey carry in the post and how proficient will he become at enabling perimeter shooters. But there HAS to be creative ways to use him just as all NBA teams find ways to enable their stars.

For one I think Edey would fit like a GLOVE in Portland and would synergize very well with Scoot Henderson given what Scoot is actually decent at on the court. You would need to then just surround them with some defensive minded wings and you're good to go IMO. Imagine a Scoot-Flagg-Edey lineup going forward. Edey could save Scoot's career with his screening and soft hands.

Doesn't Portland have DeAndre Ayton who screens and boards and does all the big man things? He is not Edey's size but he is pretty close to it. I actually think it is worth bringing up Ayton as an example of how the dominant big man can fail to equal success. Ayton and guys like Nurkic all look physical and put up big numbers, but they just don't add up to wins. A guy like Klingan is thought to be number one because he can actually defend and pass beyond the offensive scoring in the paint.

I will give Edey props that he helped Purdue's shooters as people sucked into the paint, but the lack of three in the key is a factor. He will have to adjust to the rule in the NBA.

What you forget to mention is Ayton hates basketball. He is there for the cheque. Edey has improved exponentially every year and seems very keen. Ayton with a good attitude is a franchis player. He is just disinterested.

Precisely, Ayton is a big time loser.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

And it's not like Edey is a 23 or 24 year old senior, he's a young 22 on draft night. There's room for development and there are solid reports on his shooting. If he starts popping off screens and adding in some 3 point shots here and there to keep defenses honest it's going to be awesome because the popping will keep defenders honest for the roll and lob catch at the rim. You can't put it past him because he has solid touch on his FT's with a nice high arc that usually increases the floor of the % of makes and should be indicative of at least the ability to be near average at hitting jumpers.

Edey is not a brick thrower he actually has some real touch on his shot, he needs to practice his ass off but there's something there unlike many centers who enter the league shooting 50-60% from the line with broken form.

Is "young 22" how people coped when Koloko was drafted at the same age? 22 is as close to as old as you can get before you no longer have to go through the draft to get in to the NBA.

There's only a handful of players who'll be older than Edey on draft night (Knecht is the only one that comes to mind).

I'm not talking about other players, I'm talking about college SENIORS.

Who are the other seniors projected to go within the draft?

Knecht = 1.1 years older
Da Silva = 1 year older
Shannon Jr. = 1.8 years older
Scheierman = 1.6 years older
Kolek = 1.1 years older
McCullar = 1.2 years older
Ighodaro = -0.2 years younger
Dillon Jones = 0.5 years older

And some other examples. Edey is the 2nd youngest college senior that is likely to be drafted this year.

Hell Mogbo is a junior and is older than Edey as is Devin Carter.

[ForeverTFC]

Edey can be a much more dominant offensive player than JV since JV doesn't get to the charity stripe a lot and if so his defense is more excusable.

As much as people want to think the modern NBA is all about 3 pointers the fact remains analytically that the FT line is #1, rim is #2 and 3 point line is #3 in terms of most efficient areas to score from and so there's no reason that a creative team can't find a way to make Edey their offensive centerpiece without compromising what mathematics tells you is necessary to win a game.

The question is how much gravity will Edey carry in the post and how proficient will he become at enabling perimeter shooters. But there HAS to be creative ways to use him just as all NBA teams find ways to enable their stars.

For one I think Edey would fit like a GLOVE in Portland and would synergize very well with Scoot Henderson given what Scoot is actually decent at on the court. You would need to then just surround them with some defensive minded wings and you're good to go IMO. Imagine a Scoot-Flagg-Edey lineup going forward. Edey could save Scoot's career with his screening and soft hands.

Agree with your general point, but what does Edey mean in the context of our team. Scottie is not a good pick and roll player and doesn't have blow by speed. He needs a clear lane/paint to work with. How do you insert Edey into this in a way that it works with Scottie?

[grant101]

I'm a fan. Hope we find a way to bring him on. A shot worth taking IMO
https://youtu.be/4XoNQBlSeEk?si=btYZ37EPGHb-xW8R

[BoyzNTheHood]

I'm a fan. Hope we find a way to bring him on. A shot worth taking IMO
https://youtu.be/4XoNQBlSeEk?si=btYZ37EPGHb-xW8R

What if Precious went to Oz and got himself a brain?

[OAKLEY_2]

Siakam, FVV, and where all 22 when they drafted and they all kept progressing.

The guy we all wanted Sacramento to trade to us (Keegan Murray) was 22 when he was drafted. Just because a guy goes 4 years in college, does not mean he's old and he cannot improve, and he has no potential.

You forgot the part where all 3 of those guys are the exception to the rule. Most older players have a career like Chris Duarte and Davion Mitchell are having rather than Pascal Siakam ie they are likely to be low-ceiling prospects who don't become more than roleplayers.

It's significantly more likely the outcome for Edey is a bench player than a starter-caliber big man, let alone a star player.

Most players taken after the lottery are most likely to become bench players... Especially at #19

Tell that to Fred, Paskal, OG, Norm, Jokic, Ben Wallace, Danny Green, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler. I mean seriously.

[XTC]

You forgot the part where all 3 of those guys are the exception to the rule. Most older players have a career like Chris Duarte and Davion Mitchell are having rather than Pascal Siakam ie they are likely to be low-ceiling prospects who don't become more than roleplayers.

It's significantly more likely the outcome for Edey is a bench player than a starter-caliber big man, let alone a star player.

Most players taken after the lottery are most likely to become bench players... Especially at #19

Tell that to Fred, Paskal, OG, Norm, Jokic, Ben Wallace, Danny Green, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler. I mean seriously.

Honestly I'm on your side, that's why I said MOST players not all.

[Dalek]

Really good listen from Will Lou who covered a few of my favorite guys with Sam Vecenie:

Watch on YouTube

Players discussed:
Jaylon Tyson
Tyler Kolek
Tristan DaSilva
Kel'el Ware
Zach Edey

The main takeaways from me is that Vecenie basically said do not draft Ware. Bad defensive and offensive awareness. He actually said that instead of Ware we should consider Kyle Filipowski.

Sam also gave a balanced take on Edey saying that his work ethic and character will find a way to succeed but it will be scheme dependent.

Both of them shared the love about Kolek.

Will emphasized how the FO wants back-up PG and C so I think there is a lot to consider from the above list of players at 19 especially since they have worked these guys out.

[C_Money]

Really good listen from Will Lou who covered a few of my favorite guys with Sam Vecenie:

Watch on YouTube

Players discussed:
Jaylon Tyson
Tyler Kolek
Tristan DaSilva
Kel'el Ware
Zach Edey

The main takeaways from me is that Vecenie basically said do not draft Ware. Bad defensive and offensive awareness. He actually said that instead of Ware we should consider Kyle Filipowski.

Sam also gave a balanced take on Edey saying that his work ethic and character will find a way to succeed but it will be scheme dependent.

Both of them shared the love about Kolek.

Will emphasized how the FO wants back-up PG and C so I think there is a lot to consider from the above list of players at 19 especially since they have worked these guys out.

This is also what I’ve seen from him. Plus the motor issues everybody talks about. He has bust written all over him.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Edey can be a much more dominant offensive player than JV since JV doesn't get to the charity stripe a lot and if so his defense is more excusable.

As much as people want to think the modern NBA is all about 3 pointers the fact remains analytically that the FT line is #1, rim is #2 and 3 point line is #3 in terms of most efficient areas to score from and so there's no reason that a creative team can't find a way to make Edey their offensive centerpiece without compromising what mathematics tells you is necessary to win a game.

The question is how much gravity will Edey carry in the post and how proficient will he become at enabling perimeter shooters. But there HAS to be creative ways to use him just as all NBA teams find ways to enable their stars.

For one I think Edey would fit like a GLOVE in Portland and would synergize very well with Scoot Henderson given what Scoot is actually decent at on the court. You would need to then just surround them with some defensive minded wings and you're good to go IMO. Imagine a Scoot-Flagg-Edey lineup going forward. Edey could save Scoot's career with his screening and soft hands.

Agree with your general point, but what does Edey mean in the context of our team. Scottie is not a good pick and roll player and doesn't have blow by speed. He needs a clear lane/paint to work with. How do you insert Edey into this in a way that it works with Scottie?

Well, the organization thought a non-shooter like Poeltl was a fine enough fit with Scottie even envisioning some team constructed around Lillard, FVV, Barnes, and Poeltl (with one of either Siakam or OG, hard to imagine both were on table for Lillard). There are too many variables including Edey potentially being able to knock down 3's, Barnes improving putting the ball on the floor or his perimeter shooting, etc.. At the end of the day though you just take the best player.

As far as I'm concerned Barnes isn't a good enough player on offense to build around yet to the extent you're avoiding selecting certain players because of a perceived lack of fit. Kind of doesn't even make sense given how dynamic of a player Barnes is supposed to be on both ends. As you said, he's not great OTD, not exactly a good perimeter shooter, can be TO prone. If he doesn't change that then what is his value on offense and how good of an advantage creator is he really or are his assists largely based on having the ball in his hands nonstop. Barnes to me is still too dependent on transition and offensive rebounds which are fantastic areas to excel in but not when they provide a false statistical picture of your capabilities in the HC offense.

[billy_hoyle]

Really good listen from Will Lou who covered a few of my favorite guys with Sam Vecenie:

Watch on YouTube

Players discussed:
Jaylon Tyson
Tyler Kolek
Tristan DaSilva
Kel'el Ware
Zach Edey

The main takeaways from me is that Vecenie basically said do not draft Ware. Bad defensive and offensive awareness. He actually said that instead of Ware we should consider Kyle Filipowski.

Sam also gave a balanced take on Edey saying that his work ethic and character will find a way to succeed but it will be scheme dependent.

Both of them shared the love about Kolek.

Will emphasized how the FO wants back-up PG and C so I think there is a lot to consider from the above list of players at 19 especially since they have worked these guys out.

Does Vecenie have a good track record?

He had Scottie as a tier 3 prospect (like late lottery).

[WuTang_CMB]

Really good listen from Will Lou who covered a few of my favorite guys with Sam Vecenie:

Watch on YouTube

Players discussed:
Jaylon Tyson
Tyler Kolek
Tristan DaSilva
Kel'el Ware
Zach Edey

The main takeaways from me is that Vecenie basically said do not draft Ware. Bad defensive and offensive awareness. He actually said that instead of Ware we should consider Kyle Filipowski.

Sam also gave a balanced take on Edey saying that his work ethic and character will find a way to succeed but it will be scheme dependent.

Both of them shared the love about Kolek.

Will emphasized how the FO wants back-up PG and C so I think there is a lot to consider from the above list of players at 19 especially since they have worked these guys out.

i posted this earlier. I think he was pretty positive on Edey and how his body has really transformed. Transition defense will hurt him which I agree but drop he can do well. He should be watching a ton of brook lopez bucks edition.

[CazOnReal]

Most players taken after the lottery are most likely to become bench players... Especially at #19

Tell that to Fred, Paskal, OG, Norm, Jokic, Ben Wallace, Danny Green, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler. I mean seriously.

Tell that to Justin Patton, Ivan Rabb, Anderson Varejão, Royal Ivey, Patrick Ewing Jr., Keith Benson. I mean seriously.

Again: These guys are the exception to the rule. Jokic especially, there's almost no precedent for a 2nd round pick becoming an MVP. You'll have the occasional steal in the late 1st round but the odds of them being an All-Star are significantly lower; if I recall the odds of getting an All-Star with the 19th pick are less than 7%.

There's 60 players in a normal draft (58 this year due to tampering) and a plethora of free agents that never make it to their 2nd contract. Hell, we're starting to see more players not even make it through their 1st contract like Kai Jones and James Bouknight; even Jalen Smith had his 4th year declined though that one was just Robert Sarver being a cheapass racist sac of sh*t.

Once you're out of the lottery, the odds of getting a starter-caliber player, let alone a star, drops off significantly and quite frankly I do not consider Edey to have the skillset to become a starter-caliber big man on a good team. He has the right mindset but he can't guard the PnR. He has never shown a willingness to take 3s. He's not as slow footed as people say since it's more that he's got a bad first step (He's "fast" once he gets moving) but his footspeed is a problem when he needs to make quick decisions and his playmaking is severely underdeveloped for someone who was as dominant and demanding of the opponent's defense in college as he was.

In contrast, I have my issues with Yves Missi given he's also lacking in the range and playmaking department but there's a lot more to his game that seems like it will translate to the NBA than Edey does on the defensive end.

EDIT: Found the odds - https://hoopshype.com/lists/nba-draft-history-how-likely-are-you-to-land-a-star-at-each-pick/

MVP: 0.00 percent
Finals MVP: 0.00 percent
All-NBA 1st Team: 1.49 percent
All-NBA Team: 4.48 percent
All-Star: 7.46 percent
All-Defensive: 1.49 percent
Defensive Player of the Year: 0.00 percent
NBA champion: 16.42 percent

This is why i'd rather go with someone whose skill seems more likely to translate given where we're expected to pick.

Does Vecenie have a good track record?

He had Scottie as a tier 3 prospect (like late lottery).

I mean that should tell you all you need to know.

Scottie was almost universally ranked in that tier 1.5/2 range and expected to go between 5-7 in what was considered a stacked draft class. I get scouting is hard even for professionals but that's just hard to justify even for the time.

[Dalek]

Really good listen from Will Lou who covered a few of my favorite guys with Sam Vecenie:

Watch on YouTube

Players discussed:
Jaylon Tyson
Tyler Kolek
Tristan DaSilva
Kel'el Ware
Zach Edey

The main takeaways from me is that Vecenie basically said do not draft Ware. Bad defensive and offensive awareness. He actually said that instead of Ware we should consider Kyle Filipowski.

Sam also gave a balanced take on Edey saying that his work ethic and character will find a way to succeed but it will be scheme dependent.

Both of them shared the love about Kolek.

Will emphasized how the FO wants back-up PG and C so I think there is a lot to consider from the above list of players at 19 especially since they have worked these guys out.

Does Vecenie have a good track record?

He had Scottie as a tier 3 prospect (like late lottery).

I don't know about the tiers but I do remember the zero-level offense comment which he walked back on later on. Barnes was a weird player in college playing back-up PG and not being given the opportunity to shoot much. He was much more of a defensive playmaker who thrived in transition. I don't know if anyone really predicted him to be a 20 PPG scorer after he scored 10/4/4 and shot 27% from three.

Overall, Vecenie is pretty solid in his assessments and he reviews like 100 players a year in that draft guide.

I think logic in this conversation is pretty sound overall as he backs it up with the film he watched. Ware to me has those red flags and when I watch him I worry about his bball IQ and overall processing.

For the take on Edey he does have some doubts, and really him believing in Edey is more a gut instinct based on his character. I see that side too, but the fair question is fit with Scottie and what would he look like in the playoffs down the line.