Jonas Valanciunas Summer Discussion II

[konceptonthamic]

Ive been keeping a little bit of a close eye on the lithuanian team, especially on jonas but he hasnt been very impressive to me. I went into the offseason having high hopes for him but those are going away. He hasnt even had much playing time either because of his fouling problems.


Coach casey said that jonas will be a joakim noah at worst so how long do you guys think itll take for him to develop? I know bigs take longer but this is ridiculous!


Can you guys shed some light on jonas? Maybe im missing somthing lol

[Saint Fu]

I think Valančiūnas' experience with the Lithuanian NT is similar to a JV player who finds himself on a Varsity team. The coach isn't likely going to play him much even if he earns more playing time, he's going to play the players he's comfortable with, the ones he believes have paid their dues to get on the varsity team. And when he does find himself on the court, his more experienced teammates are not going to look to him, they don't trust him, and might be jealous of the young hot-shot who everyone is fawning over.

[Patman]

IBTL

[rdtx2005]

how about you let him play a few years in the NBA first before you come to such conclusions? There will be a transition time to the NBA; be prepared for it. Great, he had a mediocre tournament. It happens.

[YoungD23]

[Johnny Firpo]

He had a good game today, and his PER36 numbers weren't that bad, really. Of course he couldn't have played even 30 minutes without fouling out... I think he'll be okay, the NBA game will help him imo. It's not as strict, they'll use him more, more chances for hustle plays. I think he'll be a very good player, for a long time in this league. He has all the tools, despite what some says.

[Double Helix]

Everything I suspected as far as fan reaction to Jonas developmental curve is already happening.

It's almost as if people on this forum have never seen a 20-year-old big man in the NBA before. AND there would be a very good reason for that. It's not all that common. In fact, over the past 20 years, basketball reference has only logged 17 x Cs 6'11 or taller who played 50 games or more at age 20. That's it. 17 over 20 years.

http://bkref.com/tiny/mO06G

Take a look at some of those PERs.

Nobody thought he'd be Shaq so forget that.
Greg Monroe was drafted for his offence so forget that.
Brook Lopez was at one point a consensus #1 type of C before falling in his draft. Again, he was drafted for his advanced post game. So, forget that.
Eddy Curry was drafted directly out of HS incredibly high. Scouts loved this kid coming out of HS and he did have offensive polish for a teenager so forget that.

Suddenly we're at Biedrins who's probably more in line with what we should hope for from Jonas (Only with better FT% and thus a higher TS%). Directly below him we're at another Valanciunas comparison, Tyson Chandler. Well, guess what folks? Because they drafted Chandler at the tender age of 18 they waited 4 years for him to put up 8/10/1.8 blocks per game. Not far down from that we're at Andrew Bynum who the Lakers were very cautious and patient with. The Lakers and Bynum waited 5 years while he battled injuries and personal growth before he started cracking 30 minutes per game consistently. 5 years! They were very patient with him and now they've been rewarded. Spencer Hawes finally started showing *some* signs of personal growth this year. Jermaine O'neal took years and a new team before he busted out fully. Joakim Noah was 2 full years older than Jonas is now as a rookie and still took a couple years to adjust to the speed/size/expectations of the position.

Because Jonas can do certain things that we need right now very well he'll be able to contribute right away (on the glass for example) but all the hype and all the reasons that managers, coaches, and scouts around the world are excited for him isn't for what he'll do next year or what he'll do in his second year. These guys are projecting what he'll be like in years 3-5 primarily. Raptors fans HAVE to give this guy some room to grow and give Casey some benefit of the doubt in terms of development. If Valanciunas is rushed along too quickly he could become like Biedrins (Good at only a couple things and overworked and broken down at a young age). He's capable of more and needs to be groomed slowly the way that Bynum, Chandler and others were so that he's solid on both ends of the court.

20 might not seem that young to some because you're probably thinking of future HOF wings or PGs who came in and had an impact at age 20. As the above link shows... the C position is different. It's more fundamental. More things can be taken away from young Cs as a result of good post defence, hard work and superior size/athleticism. When you consider all this AND the inevitable culture shock of playing in a new city and league... any Raptors fan expecting huge things in years one or two and judging his overall upside on these first couple years is a fool.

We can pretty much hit snooze on this and come back in 2 years time and it'll still be premature to judge him on what he might look like as an NBA C at ages 24-29. NBA fans around the league will think he's done growing by year 2. It'll be just like some felt Bynum was overrated at age 21 and how some thought Chandler was overrated at age 23. Eventually, they'll all be proven wrong. Stay patient. Support the guy and our coaching staff's vision and you'll be rewarded but don't start judging him after the Olympics, or into his first half of his rookie year, or even after his first rookie season too harshly. Years, folks. Years. That's what it's going to take for him to start becoming a true force. 2014 and beyond is what we're looking at here. Anything sooner would be great but we really shouldn't count on it and we really shouldn't expect it or demand it.

[ruckus]

We can pretty much hit snooze on this and come back in 2 years time and it'll still be premature to judge him on what he might look like as an NBA C at ages 24-29. NBA fans around the league will think he's done growing by year 2. It'll be just like some felt Bynum was overrated at age 21 and how some thought Chandler was overrated at age 23. Eventually, they'll all be proven wrong. Stay patient. Support the guy and our coaching staff's vision and you'll be rewarded but don't start judging him after the Olympics, or into his first half of his rookie year, or even after his first rookie season too harshly. Years, folks. Years. That's what it's going to take for him to start becoming a true force. 2014 and beyond is what we're looking at here. Anything sooner would be great but we really shouldn't count on it and we really shouldn't expect it or demand it.

Great post DH. I'm just hoping that Val is still a Raptor by the time he hits his stride.

[deeps6x]

Excellent post Double Helix

[Double Helix]

We can pretty much hit snooze on this and come back in 2 years time and it'll still be premature to judge him on what he might look like as an NBA C at ages 24-29. NBA fans around the league will think he's done growing by year 2. It'll be just like some felt Bynum was overrated at age 21 and how some thought Chandler was overrated at age 23. Eventually, they'll all be proven wrong. Stay patient. Support the guy and our coaching staff's vision and you'll be rewarded but don't start judging him after the Olympics, or into his first half of his rookie year, or even after his first rookie season too harshly. Years, folks. Years. That's what it's going to take for him to start becoming a true force. 2014 and beyond is what we're looking at here. Anything sooner would be great but we really shouldn't count on it and we really shouldn't expect it or demand it.

Great post DH. I'm just hoping that Val is still a Raptor by the time he hits his stride.

I just hope the 18,000 fans that make up the ACC that don't post on here care more about long-term growth and the value of potentially having a hard working two-way C that's by most accounts extremely loyal to the teams he plays for (won't bolt the first chance he gets) more than PPG average.

Thankfully, the kid can rebound. That seems to the second most popular stat for most basketball fans after PPG anyway. A strong rebounding average will help keep most of the vultures away from booing and talking about shipping him out "before his value drops even lower."

Jonas Valanciunas is a long-term investment. He's not a momentum stock we're looking to make a decision on any time soon.

[Mobat]

Great post DH. You arbitrarily dismissed the accomplishments of other young centers recently in the league while also giving Raptor fans a vague outlook that will keep our hopes alive for Valanciunas for years to come!

[StMikes31]

Huge success for JV and us. He got great experience which will help him next season even in the limited minutes he played. And he didn't get an injury which was important. I am sure the Raptors brass have told him to take a few weeks off to relax and get his body right and then get back at it for training camp.

[ItsDanger]

Right now JV looks like a more offensively gifted Tyson Chandler which is very promising for us. He's deadly on that pick & roll play as he gets to the hoop very quickly.

[Double Helix]

Great post DH. You arbitrarily dismissed the accomplishments of other young centers recently in the league while also giving Raptor fans a vague outlook that will keep our hopes alive for Valanciunas for years to come!

You really think it's reasonable to compare Jonas Valanciunas with players who were drafted primarily for offensive polish, especially when some of them were nabbed with either the #1 or #2 picks in a draft?

I'm not at all dismissing the accomplishments of any of those players at age 20. Instead, I'm highlighting how truly rare their tremendous accomplishments were at age 20 as young Cs and reminding us that they were exceptions as a result of having either dominant athleticism/size (Shaq) or advanced polish at a younge age (Monroe/Lopez/Curry) and not the expectation.

I'm reminding that when you separate the freaks (and Jonas wasn't drafted because he had amazing post moves, or because he was as big as Curry or Shaq, or because he had a feel for the game like Monroe) you're left with a lot of Cs who took years before they started dominating.

And of course my projection on his ultimate outcome is vague at this point. That's precisely the point. We have to trust what we've seen with our own eyes. We have to trust in the talent evaluators around the league who've unanimously sung his praises long-term. And we have to realize that Noah was 24 before he cracked a PER of 17.0 and that Chandler was 24 before he cracked a PER of 17.0 while playing big minutes and that Bynum (A C much stronger than Jonas) took time before he started dominating consistently. When you consider all that it's abundantly clear... patience is necessary with most young Cs and all we can do is wait, watch and hope that he follows along a similar long-term development path. There's no reason to expect anything sooner or younger, especially since he's going to be playing North American basketball for the first time in his life this upcoming season and will be experiencing some culture shock living in Canada.

[JWiLL02]

Coach casey said that jonas will be a joakim noah at worst so how long do you guys think itll take for him to develop? I know bigs take longer but this is ridiculous!

Ridiculous? He hasn't even played a single game yet! He just turned 20; did you expect him to come into the league a finished product?

[dTox]

Well said DH, the only thing I would add in defense of "quick to judge" fans is that BC and DC certainly haven't been helping Jonas' case by claiming him as an immediate help or repeatedly calling him to be the #2 consensus pick had he entered this year's draft before any of the players even stepped foor on the court, this automatically places him in a measurement against pretty much anyone in this draft not named A. Davis and failure to succeed them in his rookie season will be deemed as unsuccessful.

If they stop mentioning his name in press confrences (as part of the reasons as to why this team would make playoffs next year), and stop doing foolish player comparisons then the hype and expectations will die down giving Jonas more time and patience by the fans to work on his game.

[hankscorpioLA]

I'm not at all dismissing the accomplishments of any of those players at age 20. Instead, I'm highlighting how truly rare their tremendous accomplishments were at age 20 as young Cs and reminding us that they were exceptions as a result of having either dominant athleticism/size (Shaq) or advanced polish at a younge age (Monroe/Lopez/Curry) and not the expectation.

Hang on a second...why the exceptions?

Eddy Curry's numbers in his first two seasons were 6.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.7 bpg and 10.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.8 bpg.

Greg Monroe's rookie season was 9.4 ppg and 7.5 rpg - he really blossomed in his second season.

IMHO, Lopez is the only one you need to make an exception for because he put up great numbers as a 20 year old.


On the other side of the coin, we can look at some of the top centers in the game and see that they did not produce immediately upon coming into the NBA

Al Jefferson
Andrew Bynum
Roy Hibbert
Joakim Noah
Samuel Dalembert
DeAndre Jordan
Tyson Chandler

These guys represent some of the top centers in the game today and all of them took at least one year and in most cases multiple years before they found their groove.

Even Dwight Howard only averaged 12 points per game as a rookie.

So I think DH's point is a valid one. While there are some exceptions, as a general rule, it takes centers longer to develop than any other position - and in particular, guys who come into the league at a younger age tend to struggle a bit at the start.

Or, put another way, it is absolutely ludicrous that anyone would believe they could put a ceiling on Jonas at this stage in the game.

[Double Helix]

I'm not at all dismissing the accomplishments of any of those players at age 20. Instead, I'm highlighting how truly rare their tremendous accomplishments were at age 20 as young Cs and reminding us that they were exceptions as a result of having either dominant athleticism/size (Shaq) or advanced polish at a younge age (Monroe/Lopez/Curry) and not the expectation.

Hang on a second...why the exceptions?

Eddy Curry's numbers in his first two seasons were 6.7 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 0.7 bpg and 10.5 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 0.8 bpg.

Greg Monroe's rookie season was 9.4 ppg and 7.5 rpg - he really blossomed in his second season.

IMHO, Lopez is the only one you need to make an exception for because he put up great numbers as a 20 year old.


On the other side of the coin, we can look at some of the top centers in the game and see that they did not produce immediately upon coming into the NBA

Al Jefferson
Andrew Bynum
Roy Hibbert
Joakim Noah
Samuel Dalembert
DeAndre Jordan
Tyson Chandler

These guys represent some of the top centers in the game today and all of them took at least one year and in most cases multiple years before they found their groove.

Even Dwight Howard only averaged 12 points per game as a rookie.

So I think DH's point is a valid one. While there are some exceptions, as a general rule, it takes centers longer to develop than any other position - and in particular, guys who come into the league at a younger age tend to struggle a bit at the start.

Or, put another way, it is absolutely ludicrous that anyone would believe they could put a ceiling on Jonas at this stage in the game.

I'm comfortable with this and agree wholeheartedly. This is basically what I was going for.

[dagger]

You know, I cautioned people not to big him up when people seemed to be expecting enormous rookie things from him, like he was a game changer from the get-go

Now I am cautioning people not to dumb him down as a rookie, because I expect him to contribute a lot more than many expect simply by playing within his current strengths. He has never had a guard like Lowry (or for that matter Jose) and the things he currently does well, like pick and roll, were under-utilized in Europe but are a core part of our offence. Moreover, he's never had a power forward running beside him who attracts even half of the attention Bargnani does. If opponents focus on clogging the middle to take the centre pick and roll away, Bargnani will feast. And Landry Fields best asset is his off the ball play which is ideally suited for a Valanciunas/Bargnani four-five tandem.

Do not underestimate JV's potential contribution in his rookie year. On pick and roll alone, there aren't too many veteran players in the entire NBA who can roll to the basket like he does.

[dTox]

You know, I cautioned people not to big him up when people seemed to be expecting enormous rookie things from him, like he was a game changer from the get-go

Now I am cautioning people not to dumb him down as a rookie, because I expect him to contribute a lot more than expecting playing within his current strengths. He has never had a guard like Lowry (or for that matter Jose) and the things he currently does well, like pick and roll, were under-utilized in Europe but are a core part of our offence. Moreover, he's never had a power forward running beside him who attracts even half of the attention Bargnani does.

Do not underestimate his potential contribution in his rookie year. On pick and roll alone, there aren't too many veteran players in the entire NBA who can roll to the basket like he does.

Jeeez, way to control those expectations there