levon wrote:PhilBlackson wrote:levon wrote:You're right to value OG highly. I just don't think Griffin trades a mystery box pick that could be anywhere from #1 to #20 before the trade deadline for OG, and I don't think Masai settles for less from another team given that OG's not even expiring. Neither team has any urgency to do that deal before the deadline.
The very simple way around that is to place top 1 or 2 protection on it which is exactly what I think they would (will) do so NOP gets at least a couple Playoff runs out of OG and hopefully helps them creep back up the standings and not waste another season of whatever they're gonna be able to get out of Zion.
I also strongly disagree about the urgency, Raps want to lock in a top 6 or so pick, Pels simply don't know how long Zion will even last in the league but their only realistic chances (pending that jump into the protected top 2) are tied to him and right now the West is wide open. Not to mention the best version you'll see of CJ is NOW and he will only decline with time. There's plenty of reason for both teams to act now, plus NOP preventing MEM from getting him and effectively closing the door on the Pels as contenders pending a fluke into the top 2 which again they'd be protected against.
Then that removes incentive from Masai's end. A top 3 protected pick that may very well be in the mid to late teens isn't enough return. Like OG with the Pels plus Zion coming back you would think would drop their pick, and depending on what the Lakers do they might exit the lottery as well. What's the rush to trade OG for that before you know where the pick falls?
You almost need a reverse protection from the Raptors end that says if the pick falls outside the lottery in June, we get OG back
I don't know, I don't see a clear 2-team trade there.
No actually it doesn't remove the incentive, quite the opposite because you literally don't know what you're talking about.
If you were a Rap fan you would know Masai very much wanted to trade into the draft (with POR for OG but wanted another pick) in order to get Daniels actually who ofc the Pels have. So that would be his MAIN target (which was reported already that our focus is the young players NOT the picks), the picks and/or other young players (whether that's Murphy, Jones or LAL picks) are the additional upside not the focal point so your whole valuation is off as you're weighting the wrong thing.
Again holding on to OG potentially ruins OUR own draft pick and his value will never be higher than it is in this moment when a team can get a couple of Playoff runs out of him at the minimum vs one. Not to mention the younger players the Raps are targeting can improve over that time where suddenly whichever team may want to take them off the table especially for a shorter contract. When you understand that, you'll understand why now is the time for them to move him.