2023 Draft Discussion Part III

[Thaddy]

Can Bufkin play PG? I like his size and build a lot for a PG

He’s a nice 3 level scorer who seems to be a solid passer. Plays defense too

I think he’s my pick as of now

The problem Bufkin will have is that he isn't a first option anywhere and I have him struggling to find an off ball role player role. We would be better for getting a strong POA defender that can develop into an elite 3pt shooter. This is the primary reason I'm interested in Ryan Rupert. I could see him being the back up SG or SF as soon as next year.

That didn’t seem to cause any problems for Poole. I’d rather not spend a lottery pick trying to find a backup. We need to find someone who can become that go to guy for us.

Scottie isn’t the go to scorer type so pairing him with a go to scoring guard seem to be necessary

Poole isn't really a good player. He doesn't shoot the three as well as he appears to. Then he also has defensive issues. We need to find someone that can play a rotation role and grow from there. There is rarely a low lottery player that makes a sudden jump into having the ball in their hands.

[Bruin]

The problem Bufkin will have is that he isn't a first option anywhere and I have him struggling to find an off ball role player role. We would be better for getting a strong POA defender that can develop into an elite 3pt shooter. This is the primary reason I'm interested in Ryan Rupert. I could see him being the back up SG or SF as soon as next year.

That didn’t seem to cause any problems for Poole. I’d rather not spend a lottery pick trying to find a backup. We need to find someone who can become that go to guy for us.

Scottie isn’t the go to scorer type so pairing him with a go to scoring guard seem to be necessary

Poole isn't really a good player. He doesn't shoot the three as well as he appears to. Then he also has defensive issues. We need to find someone that can play a rotation role and grow from there. There is rarely a low lottery player that makes a sudden jump into having the ball in their hands.

Bufkin is a better defender than Poole though

Sure there aren’t many cases of late lotto guys becoming a first option immediately but it really depends on the situation they get drafted into. It depends on what we do. If we finally decide to move off from Siakam and Fred then a guy like Bufkin would be able to get lots of go to reps in the first couple years of his career.

Donovan Mitchell was a 13th pick who became the primary scorer for his team as a rookie. It’s not impossible. But we also don’t need our rookie to be the first option immediately. If we finally embrace a rebuild, we can let whoever we take actually learn through mistakes and play as a 2nd or 3rd option until he’s ready to make the jump into the primary role

[Lord_Zedd]

Can Bufkin play PG? I like his size and build a lot for a PG

He’s a nice 3 level scorer who seems to be a solid passer. Plays defense too

I think he’s my pick as of now

The problem Bufkin will have is that he isn't a first option anywhere and I have him struggling to find an off ball role player role. We would be better for getting a strong POA defender that can develop into an elite 3pt shooter. This is the primary reason I'm interested in Ryan Rupert. I could see him being the back up SG or SF as soon as next year.

That didn’t seem to cause any problems for Poole. I’d rather not spend a lottery pick trying to find a backup. We need to find someone who can become that go to guy for us.

Scottie isn’t the go to scorer type so pairing him with a go to scoring guard seem to be necessary

A guy like Bufkin does about anything trying to win. I don't think he's a scorer like Poole, but Poole isn't much of a playmaker/defender. Someone made a comparison of Derrick White with Bufkin and I feel that's a good one. Derrick White isn't elite at a particular skill.

[Clutch0z24]

Imagine how excited we would be right now if we had top 5 Lottery chances atm to move to 1 in this draft....Would have changed our entire franchise if we somehow got the number 1 pick this year.

[Lord_Zedd]

Imagine how excited we would be right now if we had top 5 Lottery chances atm to move to 1 in this draft....Would have changed our entire franchise if we somehow got the number 1 pick this year.

Not only that, but having a pick that's 3-5 is a way better trade asset than a pick at #13.....

[Clutch0z24]

Watch on YouTube

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Wembys talent for his age and size is insane man....Doesn't make sense...I will be watching alot of games his rookie year w/e team he goes too

[Bruin]

Imagine how excited we would be right now if we had top 5 Lottery chances atm to move to 1 in this draft....Would have changed our entire franchise if we somehow got the number 1 pick this year.

Yeah it would’ve been great. I still think we can get a difference maker at 13 too though. Really hope whoever we take gets the opportunity to learn through mistakes from day 1 though

No more Fred taking on his “projects”. Need him gone if we want any chance of our rookie getting serious reps.

[nowayguy]

Imagine how excited we would be right now if we had top 5 Lottery chances atm to move to 1 in this draft....Would have changed our entire franchise if we somehow got the number 1 pick this year.

Yeah it would’ve been great. I still think we can get a difference maker at 13 too though. Really hope whoever we take gets the opportunity to learn through mistakes from day 1 though

No more Fred taking on his “projects”. Need him gone if we want any chance of our rookie getting serious reps.

The unfortunately reality is that in most drafts there's one player picked between 11-20 who becomes a genuine needle-mover in the NBA (all-star/above average starter). Some years you'll get two guys, other years there's no one. At least the Raptors will get an earlier shot at potentially selecting that player

[WuTang_CMB]

Biggest thing for the Raptors is to add shooting in some sort of way along with maintaining defensive ability. 13th pick should very well be in the rotation off the bench next season, especially since our bench needs a major overhaul. A lot of serious CORE roster questions for Masai this year that will impact us

[Rapsfan07]

Biggest thing for the Raptors is to add shooting in some sort of way along with maintaining defensive ability. 13th pick should very well be in the rotation off the bench next season, especially since our bench needs a major overhaul. A lot of serious CORE roster questions for Masai this year that will impact us

I think the team itself, from top to bottom, is in need of a major overhaul.

We've reached a point in our team building where we have no way to add players that are better than the ones we already have. As a matter of fact, just to retain the team as is (which can't even win a play-in game), we'd need to pay the tax. So even if we let a guy like Trent walk for free, still doesn't help as we cannot sign anyone else with that space.

The only tools we have to improve are:
- MLE
- #13
- contracts like Young, Boucher, Porter, Flynn etc
- future FRPs (ONLY if we're willing to unprotect our 2024 FRP, currently owed to the Spurs)

These assets (except for the picks, but then you have to decide how deep in debt you want to go for this core) aren't enough to bring the level of improvement this team truly needs to be real contenders.

I sincerely hope the FO does the right thing this year and faces the music by dismantling the team and rebuilding. Kicking the proverbial can down the road in order to save face serves only to prolong the inevitable.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Prospects I can see getting drafted below 2.5 DBPM: Sensabaugh, Smith, Hood-Schifino, George, Howard, Hawkins, Murray, GG Jackson, Lewis, Whitehead, Terq Smith, Jalen Wilson, Strawther, Council, Keyontae Johnson, Kobe Brown, Emoni Bates, Tschiebwe, Mo Gueye, Timme, Wong, Hopkins, Kaluma.

So say I'm right and only max 5 prospects will have something resembling a good NBA career out of this list, which ones do we think will make it?

If I had to bet on 5 out of this group it would be George, Hawkins, Lewis, Murray and Johnson. Whitehead has a chance too

Not exactly sure how to define "good" but I do think these guys have a chance to carve out an NBA role

My definition of good was totally subjective. I really just looked at things like minutes, VORP, seasons and obviously accounted for players that are impactful or had a moment but have missed time with injury (i.e. Embiid) and just eyeballed redraft orders. I don't really like a one stat figure because it can overrate based on role and counting stats, but a dude that sticks around for a decade in a rotation is probably one of the better draft picks. Austin Rivers has a hugely negative VORP, but he's stuck around longer than, say Terence Jones or Kyle O'Quinn, so I would give credit to a player that like for being recognized by the league as being more valuable. Hardly scientific.

[Rapsfan07]

Prospects I can see getting drafted below 2.5 DBPM: Sensabaugh, Smith, Hood-Schifino, George, Howard, Hawkins, Murray, GG Jackson, Lewis, Whitehead, Terq Smith, Jalen Wilson, Strawther, Council, Keyontae Johnson, Kobe Brown, Emoni Bates, Tschiebwe, Mo Gueye, Timme, Wong, Hopkins, Kaluma.

So say I'm right and only max 5 prospects will have something resembling a good NBA career out of this list, which ones do we think will make it?

If I had to bet on 5 out of this group it would be George, Hawkins, Lewis, Murray and Johnson. Whitehead has a chance too

Not exactly sure how to define "good" but I do think these guys have a chance to carve out an NBA role

My definition of good was totally subjective. I really just looked at things like minutes, VORP, seasons and obviously accounted for players that are impactful or had a moment but have missed time with injury (i.e. Embiid) and just eyeballed redraft orders. I don't really like a one stat figure because it can overrate based on role and counting stats, but a dude that sticks around for a decade in a rotation is probably one of the better draft picks. Austin Rivers has a hugely negative VORP, but he's stuck around longer than, say Terence Jones or Kyle O'Quinn, so I would give credit to a player that like for being recognized by the league as being more valuable. Hardly scientific.

No, I think your definition of "good" is completely fair. I just wanted to understand how you were evaluating that. Honestly, the way I see it is if a player has a 10 year career and was taken outside of the lottery, even if he was just a bench/rotation guy, that is still incredible value.

[ATLTimekeeper]

The problem Bufkin will have is that he isn't a first option anywhere and I have him struggling to find an off ball role player role. We would be better for getting a strong POA defender that can develop into an elite 3pt shooter. This is the primary reason I'm interested in Ryan Rupert. I could see him being the back up SG or SF as soon as next year.

That didn’t seem to cause any problems for Poole. I’d rather not spend a lottery pick trying to find a backup. We need to find someone who can become that go to guy for us.

Scottie isn’t the go to scorer type so pairing him with a go to scoring guard seem to be necessary

A guy like Bufkin does about anything trying to win. I don't think he's a scorer like Poole, but Poole isn't much of a playmaker/defender. Someone made a comparison of Derrick White with Bufkin and I feel that's a good one. Derrick White isn't elite at a particular skill.

I listened to the no ceilings pod on Bufkin and they're hyping him up, but repeated that he lacks burst/quickness and he's skinny. He doesn't look to initiate contact. I think there are just too many people looking at the draft after pounding their haterade. As prospects, Derrick White's BPM was 12.4 as a freshman and about 20 pounds heavier. I don't really think the styles are the same, but White was a better prospect and still tops out as a bench player/ 5th starter.

[Thaddy]

That didn’t seem to cause any problems for Poole. I’d rather not spend a lottery pick trying to find a backup. We need to find someone who can become that go to guy for us.

Scottie isn’t the go to scorer type so pairing him with a go to scoring guard seem to be necessary

A guy like Bufkin does about anything trying to win. I don't think he's a scorer like Poole, but Poole isn't much of a playmaker/defender. Someone made a comparison of Derrick White with Bufkin and I feel that's a good one. Derrick White isn't elite at a particular skill.

I listened to the no ceilings pod on Bufkin and they're hyping him up, but repeated that he lacks burst/quickness and he's skinny. He doesn't look to initiate contact. I think there are just too many people looking at the draft after pounding their haterade. As prospects, Derrick White's BPM was 12.4 as a freshman and about 20 pounds heavier. I don't really think the styles are the same, but White was a better prospect and still tops out as a bench player/ 5th starter.

I think with younger guys in theh 18-20 range you have to look at the flashes they show, and what they are consistently. This is why Cissoko is a better prospect than Bufkin. He's had a consistently high FTr which shows his body against NBA level physicality is better than average, he's had a month of extremely hot shooting, he's shown creation ability with the pick and roll, off-ball ability, POA defense, rim protection, and the list can go on. Cissoko could be a staple in our rotation at 18 and we could build from there. A Barnes and Cissoko backcourt would be the biggest the NBA has ever seen.

[OakleyDokely]

Imagine how excited we would be right now if we had top 5 Lottery chances atm to move to 1 in this draft....Would have changed our entire franchise if we somehow got the number 1 pick this year.

It's exciting until math gets in the way. The 5th pick only has a 10% chance of moving to #1.

[ATLTimekeeper]

If I had to bet on 5 out of this group it would be George, Hawkins, Lewis, Murray and Johnson. Whitehead has a chance too

Not exactly sure how to define "good" but I do think these guys have a chance to carve out an NBA role

My definition of good was totally subjective. I really just looked at things like minutes, VORP, seasons and obviously accounted for players that are impactful or had a moment but have missed time with injury (i.e. Embiid) and just eyeballed redraft orders. I don't really like a one stat figure because it can overrate based on role and counting stats, but a dude that sticks around for a decade in a rotation is probably one of the better draft picks. Austin Rivers has a hugely negative VORP, but he's stuck around longer than, say Terence Jones or Kyle O'Quinn, so I would give credit to a player that like for being recognized by the league as being more valuable. Hardly scientific.

No, I think your definition of "good" is completely fair. I just wanted to understand how you were evaluating that. Honestly, the way I see it is if a player has a 10 year career and was taken outside of the lottery, even if he was just a bench/rotation guy, that is still incredible value.

It does end up being the case, moreso because lotto picks will get 2nd and 3rd lives just based on a bunch of bad NBA executive decisions believing that they weren't wrong to rate the player highly when they entered the draft. So often we get extended careers of higher picks, whereas it's way more challenging to stick from later on in the draft. In my rough look at sub 2.5 DBPM players, half came from the lottery. I can imagine that's because you're seeing someone so good at driving offense they stick in the league. Points get paid.

[WuTang_CMB]

Biggest thing for the Raptors is to add shooting in some sort of way along with maintaining defensive ability. 13th pick should very well be in the rotation off the bench next season, especially since our bench needs a major overhaul. A lot of serious CORE roster questions for Masai this year that will impact us

I think the team itself, from top to bottom, is in need of a major overhaul.

We've reached a point in our team building where we have no way to add players that are better than the ones we already have. As a matter of fact, just to retain the team as is (which can't even win a play-in game), we'd need to pay the tax. So even if we let a guy like Trent walk for free, still doesn't help as we cannot sign anyone else with that space.

The only tools we have to improve are:
- MLE
- #13
- contracts like Young, Boucher, Porter, Flynn etc
- future FRPs (ONLY if we're willing to unprotect our 2024 FRP, currently owed to the Spurs)

These assets (except for the picks, but then you have to decide how deep in debt you want to go for this core) aren't enough to bring the level of improvement this team truly needs to be real contenders.

I sincerely hope the FO does the right thing this year and faces the music by dismantling the team and rebuilding. Kicking the proverbial can down the road in order to save face serves only to prolong the inevitable.

We shall see. Masai is hell bent on being patient but those Demar/Lowry years were at least top 3 in the East. That landscape has totally changed with better teams/talent. I've always said I like Siakam but he's probably our best trade chip in the market aside from Scottie. If you can get a nice package for him that can energize the team with young talent / picks, you gotta look at it. We won't be tanking thats evident with trading next yrs pick, so goal is likely to get younger while also staying somewhat competitive.

[ItsDanger]

Keyonte George had an ankle injury late February. Let's back out those last 5 games, all were horrible.

Just 28 games: 39.2/35.8/80.6 16.9/4.5/3.0

All 33 games: 37.6/33.8/79.3 15.3/4.2/2.8

Not a huge difference but still significant.

[Clutch0z24]

Imagine how excited we would be right now if we had top 5 Lottery chances atm to move to 1 in this draft....Would have changed our entire franchise if we somehow got the number 1 pick this year.

It's exciting until math gets in the way. The 5th pick only has a 10% chance of moving to #1.

Teams move up all the time in the draft lottery....Just like we moved up to 4th to pick Barnes....These things happen in the Lottery every year...Does it mean it would have been us...No but there would have still been a chance...Could be anyone though...This Lottery one of the tanking teams will be disappointed cause they move back some slots and a team that gets Wemby will prolly be a team we do not expect....Thats the whole point of the lottery...

[Rapsfan07]

Biggest thing for the Raptors is to add shooting in some sort of way along with maintaining defensive ability. 13th pick should very well be in the rotation off the bench next season, especially since our bench needs a major overhaul. A lot of serious CORE roster questions for Masai this year that will impact us

I think the team itself, from top to bottom, is in need of a major overhaul.

We've reached a point in our team building where we have no way to add players that are better than the ones we already have. As a matter of fact, just to retain the team as is (which can't even win a play-in game), we'd need to pay the tax. So even if we let a guy like Trent walk for free, still doesn't help as we cannot sign anyone else with that space.

The only tools we have to improve are:
- MLE
- #13
- contracts like Young, Boucher, Porter, Flynn etc
- future FRPs (ONLY if we're willing to unprotect our 2024 FRP, currently owed to the Spurs)

These assets (except for the picks, but then you have to decide how deep in debt you want to go for this core) aren't enough to bring the level of improvement this team truly needs to be real contenders.

I sincerely hope the FO does the right thing this year and faces the music by dismantling the team and rebuilding. Kicking the proverbial can down the road in order to save face serves only to prolong the inevitable.

We shall see. Masai is hell bent on being patient but those Demar/Lowry years were at least top 3 in the East. That landscape has totally changed with better teams/talent. I've always said I like Siakam but he's probably our best trade chip in the market aside from Scottie. If you can get a nice package for him that can energize the team with young talent / picks, you gotta look at it. We won't be tanking thats evident with trading next yrs pick, so goal is likely to get younger while also staying somewhat competitive.

I don't disagree. I also think that is the route they will end up taking.

But that pick is Top 6 protected until 2026, at which time it turns into two SRPs, if I remember correctly. So what's the plan? Be "somewhat competitive " from 2022 until 2026 and then rebuild after that? Play-in or first round exits for the next four years just so that we don't have to convey a high pick? If that was the case, why bother making the trade? In my calculus, time >>> everything else. Four years of not committing in one direction or the other is a fireable offense. That is a lot of wasted time....unless of course, as we all know/suspect, MLSE just wants to pick up the playoff revenue and doesn't actually care about winning.

As you noted, the NBA landscape has changed substantially since the Demar/Lowry years. And even back then, there were a lot of people saying that it was time to move on from that core in Year 2 of our consecutive playoff runs. Front office's saving grace is that Kawhi became available and we were able to secure him and had assets to build a winner around him.

This is very clearly not that situation. We will not be getting a HOFer for pennies on the dollar and even if we somehow managed that, we don't have the assets to build said team around him.

I think the answer is move Siakam, S&T FVV, re-sign and keep Poeltl and bring in picks and young blue chip prospects. If the pick conveys, it conveys. Better to start moving forward now instead of wasting the coach's and player's time and career.