ImageImageImageImageImage

OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread

Moderators: DG88, niQ, Duffman100, tsherkin, Reeko, lebron stopper, HiJiNX, Morris_Shatford, 7 Footer

User avatar
Yosemite Dan
RealGM
Posts: 11,431
And1: 7,893
Joined: Nov 16, 2006

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1361 » by Yosemite Dan » Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:26 pm

BigBoss23 wrote:
Yosemite Dan wrote:
YogiStewart wrote:"imagine that", you say, about the flu being down. is it because we're mostly isolating and most of us (likely not you) are not having people in our homes? and we're wearing masks? huh.

your hospital numbers are wrong. figure out how many hospitals are in the GTA. do the math based on positivity testing rates here.
small cities/towns have fewer hospitals. if/when they get hit, it's easier for them to be overwhelmed.
ICUs see non-covid patients as well, so you're assuming no one but COVID patients are in ICU.
the reason we're locking down is because our ICUs are already close to capacity and surgeries are being cancelled. that's not fearmongering - those are facts.
so if we kept the lockdown at current status, it means the spread rate will overwhelm our hospital system. plain and simple.

also incorrect with your numbers: the current ratio of infected:hospitalization is lower than half a year ago because the age is currently skewed to younger people. once the inevitable spread from younger people (you know, the ones that work at grocery stores, or nursing homes) to older people, things will be dire.


So no flu cases because we’re isolating and wearing masks yet covid cases are skyrocketing with the same restrictions. And I’ll guess your next point. Your next point it’s because people are having parties yet those same parties aren’t causing flu#s to spike where younger people do not get flu shots. Your kindergarten logic makes no sense. You can’t have it both ways although I’m sure CNN would approve of it.

ICU units see flu cases as well every winter and since the flu has disappeared with your kindergarten logic that leaves that much more space to attend to ICU covid patients. And yes you can transfer many ICU patients out of smaller hospitals if need be. Toronto General gets the worst Covid Cases and they are continually getting transferred patients from other hospitals. My niece works in the respiratory unit there and in the last 8 months they have never had more than 50% capacity for the worst of the worst and normally at 25% capacity throughout this ordeal.

Italy did that in March when transferring patents out of the harder hit north to southern hospitals and they were not being left to die due to being overwhelmed. Which was confirmed by the Italian health minister in response to a fabricated story by CNN and other networks with zero evidence. Of course CNN didn’t show that press conference like most other MSM. Much like that field morgue picture CNN showed claiming covid patients were being sent there to be buried because they ran out of ground to bury people apparently when it turned out it was a 7 year old picture and it was an area where homeless people are buried.

In 2018 there were 8500 flu related deaths in Canada. My mother in her 70s broke her leg back then and needed to be hospitalized during that flu season and had to lie on a gurney for almost 2 days before getting a room because the hospital (and a major hospital) was over capacity. Almost every year hospitals are over capacity during the winter. It’s only the media that make it sound like it’s the worst thing ever when it happens every year. They conveniently ignore that context.

And overall deaths in Canada in 2020? On the same plane as it’s been for the last decade. A gradual rise year to year but only because the baby boomers are getting older representing a larger portion of the population and the overall death rate is expected to rise incrementally for the next decade. The same rate as in the US where apparently they’ve been ravaged with covid. And before you say that people are staying in thier homes so less risk of dying from different circumstances, that is more than offset by the dramatic rise in suicides and opioid deaths primarily due to these ridiculous lockdowns that target the wrong demographic.

You can spew on with your fear mongering and sky is falling scenarios. I’m just gonna reply with facts and statistics and you’re gonna lose every single time. Sorry


Yep, when I heard how the flu is “down” thats when you know its a crock of bull. If the same measures are apparently not enough for covid how could the flu with similar symptoms suddently coincidentally hit an all time low?


And it’s just not Canada. Various other areas like Australia where thier winter is our summer, had record low flu cases. And there is zero evidence that Covid is any more contagious than the seasonal flu.
Fairview4Life
RealGM
Posts: 70,190
And1: 34,030
Joined: Jul 25, 2005
     

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1362 » by Fairview4Life » Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:38 pm

It’s almost like Covid isn’t the flu.
9. Similarly, IF THOU HAST SPENT the entire offseason predicting that thy team will stink, thou shalt not gloat, nor even be happy, shouldst thou turn out to be correct. Realistic analysis is fine, but be a fan first, a smug smarty-pants second.
User avatar
Kevin Willis
RealGM
Posts: 12,681
And1: 8,096
Joined: Apr 17, 2009
       

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1363 » by Kevin Willis » Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:06 pm

Fairview4Life wrote:It’s almost like Covid isn’t the flu.


Fair I had to go back to the basics. This video does touch on why social distancing would be more effective for the flu than covid itself. This was expected months ago.

When Chuck Norris was born the doc said "Congratulations, its a man"
YogiStewart
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 26,032
And1: 6,488
Joined: Aug 08, 2007
Location: Its ALL about Location, Location, Location!

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1364 » by YogiStewart » Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:17 pm

it's amazing. i'm not going to fight with people that just don't get it nor are interested in getting it.

if you want to argue that world travel is at the same level and that socializing's at the same level as in previous years, then you're wrong.
if you don't understand that flu seasons start in other parts of the world and spread via travel, then, hey, you're not that clever.
australia just finished their flu season which also corresponded to a lockdown. so, low numbers. no one's surprised.

we are at the VERY beginning of flu season in North America, so not sure what you want right now. but if you PLandemic jackasses want to continue thinking what you think, then hey, go ahead. we can't fight you but we can laugh at how ridiculous you sound.
User avatar
Hero
RealGM
Posts: 38,322
And1: 53,515
Joined: Apr 05, 2012
Location: Edward Gardens
 

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1365 » by Hero » Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:18 pm

What's the argument to putting only Toronto and Peel in lockdown but not Durham, York Region and Hamilton? Aren't people from the hotspots just going to go there for the services that are closed?
User avatar
Kevin Willis
RealGM
Posts: 12,681
And1: 8,096
Joined: Apr 17, 2009
       

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1366 » by Kevin Willis » Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:59 pm

Hero wrote:What's the argument to putting only Toronto and Peel in lockdown but not Durham, York Region and Hamilton? Aren't people from the hotspots just going to go there for the services that are closed?


You're right Hero. The hope is that people follow instruction and isolate in their community and follow the government mandate. The government can't legally stop people from going to Durham but the hope is people do the right thing and not go. If they do then Durham will go in lockdown.

Considering a large part of population is not listening we can expect the following - unfortunately.

In 3 weeks a spike in cases in S. Asian communities due do Diwali.

In US a spike right around Christmas from Thanksgiving.

In Canada / US a spike right around the end of January from Christmas. This spike will be on top of the Christmas spike.

This vaccine, we will find, will not stop all strains of the virus. Also we will find a reluctance from some in the community to take the vaccine so herd immunity will not happen for months. I also expect some of the other vaccines around the world to have some deaths. Lastly when a larger group gets the vaccine we will find the true efficacy would be less than 95%. I also think there will be a point that when we cross it, the world will not easily bounce back. We need a cure more than a vaccine. We also need people to do the little things to not get to this point and that includes not going to Durham. The governments know this, they don't want to scare the populace but they know things are getting real very quickly. My guess is that it's already too late for the US, by the time Biden takes office the wave will be so large they can only bunker down and endure. Lastly, in the next quarter or so we will start to get a better handle of the some long terms affect of covid and it will be shocking. I think it will be neural but we'll find out.

I hope I'm wrong of course. I really, really do.
When Chuck Norris was born the doc said "Congratulations, its a man"
User avatar
RoyceDa59
RealGM
Posts: 24,275
And1: 9,179
Joined: Aug 25, 2002
         

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1367 » by RoyceDa59 » Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:36 am

At this point you can all expect a very cold and covid heavy winter, followed by a vaccine and amazing summer 2021.

6 more months of lockdown and we move on. Hang in there folks.


Sent from my iPhone using RealGM Forums
Go Raps!!
User avatar
Gold Dragon
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,025
And1: 4,607
Joined: Jul 02, 2006
Location: Oz
 

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1368 » by Gold Dragon » Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:47 am

In australia the flu and all respiratory infections are down because people are practicing good public health. Washing hands, masking, social distancing, not going to work when sick. Most employers send you home with any cold symptoms.

Public health advice that has worked for hundreds of years still works today. Imagine that.
User avatar
Johnny Bball
RealGM
Posts: 54,803
And1: 59,137
Joined: Feb 01, 2015
 

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1369 » by Johnny Bball » Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:49 am

Wow. How poorly educated on the matter do you have to be to still think covid is close to the same as the flu at this stage. This thread is just a mess.
YogiStewart
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 26,032
And1: 6,488
Joined: Aug 08, 2007
Location: Its ALL about Location, Location, Location!

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1370 » by YogiStewart » Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:05 am

i mean, some posters here know best. we'll never ever hit capacity.

Read on Twitter
Pointgod
RealGM
Posts: 24,101
And1: 24,430
Joined: Jun 28, 2014

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1371 » by Pointgod » Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:18 am

Johnny Bball wrote:Wow. How poorly educated on the matter do you have to be to still think covid is close to the same as the flu at this stage. This thread is just a mess.


The covidiots are stuck on stupid. It’s literally the same argument they were making months ago about covid being the flu and opening up the economy and all the other stupid ****. Despite the fact that we had months of data to and examples that show what happens when you just let it run rampant *cough America*. Not that the governments current response can’t be criticized but holy **** are the covidiots arguments idiotic.
User avatar
Johnny Bball
RealGM
Posts: 54,803
And1: 59,137
Joined: Feb 01, 2015
 

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1372 » by Johnny Bball » Mon Nov 23, 2020 1:35 am

Yosemite Dan wrote:
You do realize that about 80 to 85% of that 1% are nursing home residents. I don’t think they would be working. This is what happens when people refuse to think critically. And those 50 years olds who are having heart attacks? I’m pretty sure that would be coming mostly from thier lives being financially destroyed.


This is just wrong. In Canada this was the case in June. There was a large surge early in nursing homes. Things change. When this starts to spread though community it changes who it affects and when systems hit capacity it changes that 1%, and that number of just nursing homes is going to drop. 40% of US deaths had been in nursing homes. Not 85%. So if you want to study the fatality rate for age groups you might want to extend beyond a myopic view.

I'm sure you could easily find ICU nurses tales on youtube to say tell their heart didn't break from being poor and that they died of covid. And then like you, argued they didn't really have covid up to their dying breath.
BDDray420
Senior
Posts: 553
And1: 773
Joined: Jun 06, 2016

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1373 » by BDDray420 » Mon Nov 23, 2020 2:42 am

Any of yall having christmas parties? I got friends not in lockdown willing to host. What's the point of lockdown again? hahahha
User avatar
Yosemite Dan
RealGM
Posts: 11,431
And1: 7,893
Joined: Nov 16, 2006

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1374 » by Yosemite Dan » Mon Nov 23, 2020 4:59 am

YogiStewart wrote:i mean, some posters here know best. we'll never ever hit capacity.

Read on Twitter


Nice try. I just went thru his tweets. One earlier tweet he says there’s only 174 ICU beds left (which indicates that there’s a lot more than 174 available) and then in another later tweet he says there are only 175 ICU beds in total in the entire state of Arizona. A state with a population of 7.4 million and they only have 175 ICU beds. There’s 124 hospitals in Arizona so thats 1.4 ICU beds per hospital? The average hospital has 10-20 ICU beds but for some reason Arizona only has 1.4 beds. That means they must be over capacity every single year because Ontario has twice the population but had 10 000 beds available in April.

Unless Arizona is impervious to the flu every single winter then either people in Arizona are dying in hospital hallways every single year or, and much more likely, this is another gross exaggeration of the facts which is par for the course with the Twitter mob.

This is the kind of baseless fear mongering that permeates on Twitter and causes govts to overreact. Provide some real stats not manufactured drama. Unbelievable.
Wo1verine
2015 Beat the Commish Champion
Posts: 17,585
And1: 11,768
Joined: Apr 23, 2010
     

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1375 » by Wo1verine » Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:31 am

Flu cases have dropped by over 98% this year and they’ve even DOUBLED the testing.

Reason?

People are washing their hands, social distancing and wearing masks.

Covid cases are up by 1,200% since July.

Reason?

People aren’t washing their hands enough, social distancing enough or wearing masks enough.
Image
BrunoSkull
User avatar
pingpongrac
RealGM
Posts: 11,704
And1: 16,866
Joined: Mar 18, 2015
   

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1376 » by pingpongrac » Mon Nov 23, 2020 6:39 am

Wo1verine wrote:Flu cases have dropped by over 98% this year and they’ve even DOUBLED the testing.

Reason?

People are washing their hands, social distancing and wearing masks.

Covid cases are up by 1,200% since July.

Reason?

People aren’t washing their hands enough, social distancing enough or wearing masks enough.
I'm not sure what the point is that you're trying to make. It's been a well-documented fact that COVID-19 is extremely transmissible.

Sent from my Pixel 4 using RealGM mobile app
Image
User avatar
Yosemite Dan
RealGM
Posts: 11,431
And1: 7,893
Joined: Nov 16, 2006

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1377 » by Yosemite Dan » Mon Nov 23, 2020 7:00 am

pingpongrac wrote:
Wo1verine wrote:Flu cases have dropped by over 98% this year and they’ve even DOUBLED the testing.

Reason?

People are washing their hands, social distancing and wearing masks.

Covid cases are up by 1,200% since July.

Reason?

People aren’t washing their hands enough, social distancing enough or wearing masks enough.
I'm not sure what the point is that you're trying to make. It's been a well-documented fact that COVID-19 is extremely transmissible.

Sent from my Pixel 4 using RealGM mobile app


The only thing more contagious is the creative accounting going on with the recording of cases. Everything is being labelled as COVID and test results have been notoriously inaccurate. Ask Elon Musk who took 4 tests one after another. 2 were positive and 2 were negative but I’m sure California counted that as 2 COVID cases.
beanbag
Analyst
Posts: 3,308
And1: 4,555
Joined: Apr 07, 2012

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1378 » by beanbag » Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:37 pm

Yosemite Dan wrote:
pingpongrac wrote:
Wo1verine wrote:Flu cases have dropped by over 98% this year and they’ve even DOUBLED the testing.

Reason?

People are washing their hands, social distancing and wearing masks.

Covid cases are up by 1,200% since July.

Reason?

People aren’t washing their hands enough, social distancing enough or wearing masks enough.
I'm not sure what the point is that you're trying to make. It's been a well-documented fact that COVID-19 is extremely transmissible.

Sent from my Pixel 4 using RealGM mobile app


The only thing more contagious is the creative accounting going on with the recording of cases. Everything is being labelled as COVID and test results have been notoriously inaccurate. Ask Elon Musk who took 4 tests one after another. 2 were positive and 2 were negative but I’m sure California counted that as 2 COVID cases.


You're sure? Do you have evidence it was counted as two cases? Otherwise, I might have to argue you're spewing nonsense.
TorontoRapsFan
Starter
Posts: 2,057
And1: 1,426
Joined: May 11, 2017
       

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1379 » by TorontoRapsFan » Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:46 pm

I don't have the time to search for it but there was a hypothesis by some medical/scientist that the flu will drop due to lack of global travel. The flu, the strain that makes most people sick anyways, goes in cycles where during each season it is a migrated and recently mutated version from what was in the other hemisphere during their flu season.
Image
Local_NG_Idiot
RealGM
Posts: 11,587
And1: 3,563
Joined: Apr 24, 2003

Re: OT: COVID-19 Ontario 2nd Wave Thread 

Post#1380 » by Local_NG_Idiot » Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:49 pm

Wo1verine wrote:Flu cases have dropped by over 98% this year and they’ve even DOUBLED the testing.

Reason?

People are washing their hands, social distancing and wearing masks.

Covid cases are up by 1,200% since July.

Reason?

People aren’t washing their hands enough, social distancing enough or wearing masks enough.


Look at you finally posting a real fact! I'm proud of you. How about we explain why this is true now ok?

Inluenza has a shorter incubation period and a shorter serial interval as compared to Covid. The viral load shed by those infected by Covid is also higher than that of Influenza, and the pre-symptomatic transmission period for Covid is 3-4X the duration.

It's like if you have 2 dogs. One is a chihuahua and one is a mastiff where the chihuahua has to poop once an hour and the mastiff has to poop every 15 minutes. Which pet requires far more diligence to make sure you don't step in a pile of poop in your house?

Return to Toronto Raptors