Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II

[dozo]

I haven't followed much college ball this year and so don't really know any of these kids outside the top few. What do you guys think of Brice Sensabaugh? He seems like a very productive freshman with some size on the wing that's projected to go somewhere in our range. Frankly, I'm surprised he isn't slotted in higher. Are there big red flags or something? Buckeye's lack of success in the win/loss column definitely requires some explaining but otherwise he could be a fit.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.landgrantholyland.com/platform/amp/2023/1/6/23001915/youre-nuts-is-brice-sensabaugh-a-surefire-one-and-done-ohio-state-buckeyes-mens-basketball

Neither Sensabaugh nor Branham were especially developed on the defensive end by the end of their freshman season, but that didn’t stop the Spurs from taking Branham with the 20th overall pick last season. For the most part, teams want young, talented scorers who they think can step into the league and score right now. Defense, body weight, muscle mass, that can all be taught and improved on with time. But if buckets can be provided right now, that’s what matters the most.

I havent sold my stock. I like him at 12-20 range. His shooting spilts have been compared to Steph Curry and Lauri Markkanen college shooting splits.

Biggest questions surrounding Brice.
Can he score against NBA size and length?
What postion will he guard?
Can he remain healthy and stay in game shape?

[Rapsfan07]

Where we draft is going to have some interesting choices. We will have quality fallers (ie. Whitehead, Smith Jr.), quality risers (ie. Bilal, Kobe) and guys expected to be in our range (Dick, Howard). We could also go steady (Hood), potential or need. I have a feeling one of the Thompson twins are going fall hard. In the combine they will have good athletic results but their interviews are going to be really bad. One of them might fall to us.

Agreed. But Smith Jr is firmly leading my do not draft list.
I don't see what some of you do in him. He just not my cup of tea as a prospect.

I agree.

We should stay away from the following: Nick Smith Jr, Brice Sensabaugh, Jalen Hood-Schifino, GG Jackson & Leonard Miller

At our pick, I would consider: Cason Wallace, Taylor Hendricks, Cam Whitmore (if he fell)

With a later first, should we acquire one, I would consider: Kobe Bufkin, Colby Jones, Brandin Podziemski, Bilal Coulibaly & Sidy Cissoko

Sleeper list of guys I think could return more value than where they were drafted: Trayce Jackson-Davis, Noah Clowney, Marcus Sasser, Maxwell Lewis, Julian Strawther, Dariq Whitehead and Trey Alexander.

It seems the general consensus on this draft is it is a weak one but I think it has the chance to be quite strong. I don't know how many future all-stars I can see here but I do think that it has the potential to produce quite a few starters and/or valuable role players that will quality minutes at the NBA level. Of course, it depends on where they land and how hard they work but the talent is there.

[God Squad]

I haven't followed much college ball this year and so don't really know any of these kids outside the top few. What do you guys think of Brice Sensabaugh? He seems like a very productive freshman with some size on the wing that's projected to go somewhere in our range. Frankly, I'm surprised he isn't slotted in higher. Are there big red flags or something? Buckeye's lack of success in the win/loss column definitely requires some explaining but otherwise he could be a fit.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.landgrantholyland.com/platform/amp/2023/1/6/23001915/youre-nuts-is-brice-sensabaugh-a-surefire-one-and-done-ohio-state-buckeyes-mens-basketball

Neither Sensabaugh nor Branham were especially developed on the defensive end by the end of their freshman season, but that didn’t stop the Spurs from taking Branham with the 20th overall pick last season. For the most part, teams want young, talented scorers who they think can step into the league and score right now. Defense, body weight, muscle mass, that can all be taught and improved on with time. But if buckets can be provided right now, that’s what matters the most.

I havent sold my stock. I like him at 12-20 range. His shooting spilts have been compared to Steph Curry and Lauri Markkanen college shooting splits.

Biggest questions surrounding Brice.
Can he score against NBA size and length?
What postion will he guard?
Can he remain healthy and stay in game shape?

His ceiling would be sneaky high if he'd be able to defend the 3-4. I'm not sure he'll be able to. But I think he's going to destroy some of these rawer or less refined prospects in workouts.

I'm calling it now.

[tecumseh18]

[

It seems the general consensus on this draft is it is a weak one but I think it has the chance to be quite strong.

I don't even know what this means anymore. 2021 was supposed to be legendary (and tbf, Giddey looked good out there last night) and 2022 was supposed to be weak. But 2022 has clearly produced a lot of talent, including Jalen Williams at #12.

So what games should we be watching this weekend (or even now) to view these prospect in our range?

[BoyzNTheHood]

I haven't followed much college ball this year and so don't really know any of these kids outside the top few. What do you guys think of Brice Sensabaugh? He seems like a very productive freshman with some size on the wing that's projected to go somewhere in our range. Frankly, I'm surprised he isn't slotted in higher. Are there big red flags or something? Buckeye's lack of success in the win/loss column definitely requires some explaining but otherwise he could be a fit.

terrible passer, terrible defender. Low IQ basketball player.

Sensabough isn't a winning player. You want to bring someone in who's been a part of a winning program and also has tools that we like. This is the reason why Rupert is probably going to be Ujiri's favorite prospect. Hendricks similarly has the measurements but he lacks the coordination and feel for the game.

Rupert wishes he was half the prospect Hendricks is. Masai definitely has Hendricks ranked higher

[ItsDanger]

Sensabaugh style is more suited to a 6th man.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Xavier trying to rally, Jones has the nicest and most accurate floater in the draft I'll say that.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Ufff Jones just bricked a big transition 3 in a critical moment of the game. Like REALLY bricked it.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Jones to the line with seconds left, this is gonna be spicy.

Hit 1 of 2, Kennesaw can now win with a 2 pointer. Pretty ugly stuff.

[dozo]

I haven't followed much college ball this year and so don't really know any of these kids outside the top few. What do you guys think of Brice Sensabaugh? He seems like a very productive freshman with some size on the wing that's projected to go somewhere in our range. Frankly, I'm surprised he isn't slotted in higher. Are there big red flags or something? Buckeye's lack of success in the win/loss column definitely requires some explaining but otherwise he could be a fit.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.landgrantholyland.com/platform/amp/2023/1/6/23001915/youre-nuts-is-brice-sensabaugh-a-surefire-one-and-done-ohio-state-buckeyes-mens-basketball

Neither Sensabaugh nor Branham were especially developed on the defensive end by the end of their freshman season, but that didn’t stop the Spurs from taking Branham with the 20th overall pick last season. For the most part, teams want young, talented scorers who they think can step into the league and score right now. Defense, body weight, muscle mass, that can all be taught and improved on with time. But if buckets can be provided right now, that’s what matters the most.

I havent sold my stock. I like him at 12-20 range. His shooting spilts have been compared to Steph Curry and Lauri Markkanen college shooting splits.

Biggest questions surrounding Brice.
Can he score against NBA size and length?
What postion will he guard?
Can he remain healthy and stay in game shape?

His ceiling would be sneaky high if he'd be able to defend the 3-4. I'm not sure he'll be able to. But I think he's going to destroy some of these rawer or less refined prospects in workouts.

I'm calling it now.

I'm looking forward to combine and the leaked intel from individual workouts.

The raptors have enough prospects with + wingspans who can't shot. They missed on Desmond Bane because of body measurements. Mgmt needs to hit a HR with this selection. I want the pick to be top 5 when they do the re-draft. Hopefully they move up in lottery cause Bmill and (Jimi) Hendricks are ideal fits next to SB.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Jamal Shead hyperextended his knee last night and Sasser reaggrivated his groin and their game tomorrow is close to Auburn campus, Jarace Walker is going to need to have the game of his life .

[BoyzNTheHood]

Keyonte George is shooting 8/29 in his last 3 games. Baylor is winning despite his efforts, and he’s showing that he’s folding when it matters most. Red flags left and right

[OakleyDokely]

Kevin Pelton rates the prospects based on warp

WARP projections
The statistics-only version of my projections estimates the wins above replacement player (WARP) that a prospect will average during his first five seasons in the league, adjusted to favor immediate projection by discounting performance in future years.

To calculate this, I've used past players in my database -- which is largely complete back through the 2006 draft and includes a handful of players back through 2003 for whom per-play college stats are available -- to run a model projecting WARP based on the player's projected win percentage (the per-minute version of WARP, akin to PER) as a rookie and his age.

Because players tend to develop through around age 27, their age makes a large impact on their projections. All other things being equal, each additional year of age tends to reduce a player's projected NBA value by about 0.5 WARP per season.

Since 2018, the WARP projections have included a higher replacement level for centers and power forwards than perimeter players -- particularly wings. Note that this change has not been applied retroactively to past projections before 2018.

1. Victor Wembanyama

Metropolitans 92 | C
Top 100: No. 1
Stats: No. 18

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

2. Brandon Miller
Alabama | SF
Top 100: No. 3
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 3.6 WARP

3. Cam Whitmore
Villanova | SF
Top 100: No. 7
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.2 WARP

4. Cason Wallace
Kentucky | G
Top 100: No. 13
Stats: No. 6

Consensus: 2.8 WARP

5. Gradey Dick
Kansas | G/F
Top 100: No. 11
Stats: No. 13

Consensus: 2.6 WARP

6. Taylor Hendricks
UCF | PF
Top 100: No. 12
Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 2.6 WARP

7. Keyonte George
Baylor | SG
Top 100: No. 9
Stats: No. 16

Consensus: 2.6 WARP

8. Brice Sensabaugh
Ohio State | SF
Top 100: No. 18
Stats: No. 11

Consensus: 2.4 WARP

9. Dereck Lively II
Duke | C
Top 100: No. 22
Stats: No. 9

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

10. Scoot Henderson
G League Ignite | PG
Top 100: No. 2
Stats: No. 60

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

11. Jarace Walker
Houston | PF
Top 100: No. 6
Stats: No. 30

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

12. Kyle Filipowski
Duke | F/C
Top 100: No. 14
Stats: No. 19

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

13. Nick Smith Jr.
Arkansas | G
Top 100: No. 8
Stats: No. 23

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

14. Brandin Podziemski
Santa Clara | G/F
Top 100: No. 39
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

15. Dariq Whitehead
Duke | SF
Top 100: No. 29
Stats: No. 10

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

16. Anthony Black
Arkansas | SG
Top 100: No. 10
Stats: No. 24

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

17. Jett Howard
Michigan | SG
Top 100: No. 16
Stats: No. 20

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

18. Donovan Clingan
UConn | C
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

19. Zach Edey
Purdue | C
Top 100: No. 48
Stats: No. 5

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

20. Will Richard
Florida | SG
Top 100: NR
Stats: No. 7

Consensus: 1.9 WARP

21. Baylor Scheierman
Creighton | SG
Top 100: No. 40
Stats: No. 14

Consensus: 1.9 WARP

22. Terrance Arceneaux
Houston | SF
Top 100: No. 67
Stats: No. 8

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

23. Noah Clowney
Alabama | F/C
Top 100: No. 19
Stats: No. 28

Consensus: 1.7 WARP

24. Leonard Miller
G League Ignite | F
Top 100: No. 24
Stats: No. 27

Consensus: 1.7 WARP

25. Colby Jones
Xavier | SG
Top 100: 28
Stats: No. 25

Consensus: 1.6 WARP

26. Jordan Hawkins
UConn | SG
Top 100: No. 20
Stats: No. 33

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

27. Josiah-Jordan James
Tennessee | F/G
Top 100: No. 73
Stats: No. 17

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

28. Kel'el Ware
Oregon | C
Top 100: 34
Stats: No. 29

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

29. Marcus Sasser
Houston | G
Top 100: No. 35
Stats: No. 32

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

30. Terquavion Smith
North Carolina State | PG
Top 100: No. 32
Stats: No. 34

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/35866633/nba-draft-stat-based-projections-top-prospects-ncaa-tournament-elsewhere

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Ya I called BS on George, Smith Jr. and Terquavion a while ago.

If you want a losing brand of heroball gameplay you can pick your poison.

George is the best prospect out of all of them but if he doesn't fix his shooting he'll be out of the NBA fast. If he improves his shot selection and overall shooting efficiency then I can see him being a quality starter but there's a lot that needs to happen for him to get there and I don't feel he has any special qualities as a player. There's also a good chance if he becomes a good shooter he'll be a guy that loses you games with boneheaded turnovers.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

NC State 0 assists on 11 made shots

[dozo]

Read on Twitter

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Hawkins really is nothing special either, his Uconn teammates look better than him most days which says everything you need to know about him.

[Psubs]

Hawkins really is nothing special either, his Uconn teammates look better than him most days which says everything you need to know about him.

That's why I say forget the SG's as it's probably 1 in 10 that are taken between 5 and 45 that will pan out. There are 2 forfeited picks in the 2nd so 2 players that will be UDFA. Just try and sign the next FVV that has more size.

[Psubs]

Ya I called BS on George, Smith Jr. and Terquavion a while ago.

If you want a losing brand of heroball gameplay you can pick your poison.

George is the best prospect out of all of them but if he doesn't fix his shooting he'll be out of the NBA fast. If he improves his shot selection and overall shooting efficiency then I can see him being a quality starter but there's a lot that needs to happen for him to get there and I don't feel he has any special qualities as a player. There's also a good chance if he becomes a good shooter he'll be a guy that loses you games with boneheaded turnovers.

Terquavion last year yes, he's a chucker and still a chucker but he's gotten stronger and more of a playmaker this year. Leave all the SG's alone.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Ya I called BS on George, Smith Jr. and Terquavion a while ago.

If you want a losing brand of heroball gameplay you can pick your poison.

George is the best prospect out of all of them but if he doesn't fix his shooting he'll be out of the NBA fast. If he improves his shot selection and overall shooting efficiency then I can see him being a quality starter but there's a lot that needs to happen for him to get there and I don't feel he has any special qualities as a player. There's also a good chance if he becomes a good shooter he'll be a guy that loses you games with boneheaded turnovers.

Terquavion last year yes, he's a chucker and still a chucker but he's gotten stronger and more of a playmaker this year. Leave all the SG's alone.

Terquavion reminds me of Rafer Alston for some reason