2023 Draft Discussion Part III

[Stromile12]

I haven't watched much video on this upcoming draft class. Who has the highest ceiling, that is projected around our pick? That's who we need to take , we need a home run but if we strikeout, oh well.

[Smalltown]

Not sure you'll see that leap this time but Bilal Coulibaly is often ranked in the 30s if he's eligible. Talent wise, he has to be taken much higher than that.

100% someone takes a swing on him earlier as long as he doesn't tank predraft invites.

[billy_hoyle]

I don't disagree. I also think that is the route they will end up taking.

But that pick is Top 6 protected until 2026, at which time it turns into two SRPs, if I remember correctly. So what's the plan? Be "somewhat competitive " from 2022 until 2026 and then rebuild after that? Play-in or first round exits for the next four years just so that we don't have to convey a high pick? If that was the case, why bother making the trade? In my calculus, time >>> everything else. Four years of not committing in one direction or the other is a fireable offense. That is a lot of wasted time....unless of course, as we all know/suspect, MLSE just wants to pick up the playoff revenue and doesn't actually care about winning.

As you noted, the NBA landscape has changed substantially since the Demar/Lowry years. And even back then, there were a lot of people saying that it was time to move on from that core in Year 2 of our consecutive playoff runs. Front office's saving grace is that Kawhi became available and we were able to secure him and had assets to build a winner around him.

This is very clearly not that situation. We will not be getting a HOFer for pennies on the dollar and even if we somehow managed that, we don't have the assets to build said team around him.

I think the answer is move Siakam, S&T FVV, re-sign and keep Poeltl and bring in picks and young blue chip prospects. If the pick conveys, it conveys. Better to start moving forward now instead of wasting the coach's and player's time and career.

A couple things:

1.) The plan could be to draft the BPA at 13. That could end up being a star caliber player (re: Jalen Williams). Add a competent bench combo guard for the MLE ( say DDV). Get a healthy OPJ, and improved young guys (Koloko, Precious, Barnes and GTJ). We were 0.500, why can't this team have some sizable positive regression in close games (basically hand over the reigns to Scottie in that last 2 minutes) and end up with 50+ wins. We are not far off.

2.) Pennies on the dollar. DeMar has made multiple all star teams and an all NBA team since that trade. Keldon Johnson is at least a rotation player, and Poeltl just cost us a 1st and 2 seconds as an expiring to get back. How is that pennies? Worth it for a 'chip, absolutely! Pennies?

1) #13 could be star player, for sure. He also could not. No point debating that since we have no idea as of this moment who the pick will be. But let's say we do manage to get a Williams caliber player at #13...does that player make us good enough to compete in the Siakam/FVV window or would we be better off moving those guys and pairing #13 with Barnes and whatever else we get in a trade for Siakam/FVV, growing that core together and adding meaningful veterans later down the road? Or perhaps better put - do we believe that the guy we get at #13 is going to be a Kawhi/Giannis/Curry/LBJ/Jokic/Embiid type? Because that's the kind of piece we're missing right now. I personally think that those who believe we're an MLE signing away from contention are fooling themselves and history is on my side with that assertion. The Lowry/DeRozan era teams were much better than the ones we've fielded the last couple years and even they required a significant retool.

2) I agree with your assessment of the pieces of the Kawhi deal and even then, that's still really cheap for a Finals MVP caliber player. Look at what guys like George and Mitchell went for. Look at what Durant just went for. We got Leonard, who was arguably a Top 5 player for cheaper than what these other teams paid for the guys above. Let's say Giannis or Curry or Embiid or Jokic hit the market, do you think we could get them for what we paid for Kawhi? I highly, highly doubt it. The set of circumstances surrounding Kawhi at the time, mixed with our FOs willingness to take a massive gamble is what made that deal possible.

But at the end of the day, as evidenced that deal, you need to have a player like that or the ability to acquire one. As of now, we have neither.

Sorry why do we have neither? We can draft one at 13. We can trade for one with Barnes and 13. Barnes and a lottery pick/filler was good enough for a Durant package last summer (we balked at trading a ROY for a mid-30s star).

George, Mitchell and Durant had years left on their contracts, Kawai was one and done. Is the return on D Mitchell that different? Lauri, Sexton, Agbaji and three 1sts plus two swaps. The swaps won't likely impact, unless you think the Jazz will be better than the Cavs in the next half decade. Even if they are, it will likely be a Lakers Pels style swap this year.

We gave up DeMar, Poeltl, and a first. That's DeMar + 2 1sts + 2x 2nds converting Poeltl to picks. How is that much different when considering the amount of contract retention we had?

[Dalek]

Watching Austin Reaves emerge for the Lakers makes me rethink Podz (plus Air Podz is a dope nick name). Both are 6'5, lower end athletes with high IQ. Honestly Austin Reaves didn't even look half as good as Podz has this year.

Reaves played college ball for 4 years, and was kind of considered a playmaking scoring guard at 6'5. He played good defense but his DBPM was 0.9 and BPM 6.4 so his contribution was mainly on being an aggressive offensive player (54 FTR, 27 AST, 28 USG).

Brandin Podziemski is a similar size he will be around 6'4 (32 FTR, 21 AST, 26 USG) and 2.4 DBPM, 10 BPM puts him ahead of Reaves plus his shooting numbers are way up.

Is Reaves a lotto pick on a redraft? This season he was 13/3/3 on 53/40/86 splits plus he can contain dribble penetration decently. My redraft thoughts peg him at 11:

1. Pistons Evan Mobley
2. Rockets Cade Cunningham
3. Cavaliers Franz Wagner
4. Raptors Josh Giddey
5. Magic Scottie Barnes
6. Thunder Alperen Sengun
7. Warriors Trey Murphy
8. Magic Jalen Suggs
9. Kings Jalen Green
10. Pelicans Jonathan Kuminga
11. Hornets Austin Reaves
12. Spurs James Bouknight
13. Pacers Davion Mitchell
14. Warriors Herb Jones
15. Wizards Corey Kispert
16. Cam Thomas
17. Joshua Primo
18. Ziaire Williams
19. Moses Moody
20. Chris Duarte

Maybe Air Podz at 13 isn't too crazy because the high IQ plus shooting and playmaking is a very good combo. Colby Jones is even more similar to Reaves in college and is an older prospect like Austin when he came out.

[ItsDanger]

These prospects with athleticism + wingspan but low BBIQ are overrated. Reaves has good handles, highBBIQ, little toughness which elevates his overall game. Pace of play guys are underrated for some reason but lot of top players feature that in their style.

[OakleyDokely]

Last 10 #13 picks

2022: Jalen Duren
2021: Chris Duarte
2020: Kira Lewis Jr.
2019: Tyler Herro
2018: Jerome Robinson
2017: Donovan Mitchell
2016: Georgios Papagiannis
2015: Devin Booker
2014: Zach LaVine
2013: Kelly Olynyk

[Dalek]

After watching this years playoffs you can see just how important is it for a guard to be able to break down his man and get to the rim. I think I’d be leaning more towards Nick smith jr. His burst and first step look elite, even if his shot is pretty inconsistent I think we desperately need someone who can put pressure on the rim either for kick outs or to finish himself.

The thing is though he never put much pressure on the rim, he mainly uses his floater package in the paint. Part of it is probably the knee injury but I don't know.

I don't think you can say his floater focus is on his knee injury. He shot mainly floaters in high school too. That is just his game because he loves to get to space to get his shot off. He isn't a player who wants to draw contact. It is something worth considering when drafting him, but I do think he has good form on the shot and in time it could be Conley-esque.

Keyonte is the opposite and loves contact because he is heavier and stronger, but he isn't a vertical athlete so I think he will have issues finishing at the next level. But he is very creative, so he could prove me wrong.

Honestly, none of the top guys (outside Scoot, Amen, Ausar, Cam) have an elite first step. The next tier guys will need a screen or will be guys who settle for mid-range shots or floaters like Trent Jr.

[raincityraptors]

There are so many good guards in our range this year.

I'm confident that Masai and our scouting team will find the BPA.

I'm also hoping we find a way to a second pick in this draft because it's a deep one.

[Rapsfan07]

A couple things:

1.) The plan could be to draft the BPA at 13. That could end up being a star caliber player (re: Jalen Williams). Add a competent bench combo guard for the MLE ( say DDV). Get a healthy OPJ, and improved young guys (Koloko, Precious, Barnes and GTJ). We were 0.500, why can't this team have some sizable positive regression in close games (basically hand over the reigns to Scottie in that last 2 minutes) and end up with 50+ wins. We are not far off.

2.) Pennies on the dollar. DeMar has made multiple all star teams and an all NBA team since that trade. Keldon Johnson is at least a rotation player, and Poeltl just cost us a 1st and 2 seconds as an expiring to get back. How is that pennies? Worth it for a 'chip, absolutely! Pennies?

1) #13 could be star player, for sure. He also could not. No point debating that since we have no idea as of this moment who the pick will be. But let's say we do manage to get a Williams caliber player at #13...does that player make us good enough to compete in the Siakam/FVV window or would we be better off moving those guys and pairing #13 with Barnes and whatever else we get in a trade for Siakam/FVV, growing that core together and adding meaningful veterans later down the road? Or perhaps better put - do we believe that the guy we get at #13 is going to be a Kawhi/Giannis/Curry/LBJ/Jokic/Embiid type? Because that's the kind of piece we're missing right now. I personally think that those who believe we're an MLE signing away from contention are fooling themselves and history is on my side with that assertion. The Lowry/DeRozan era teams were much better than the ones we've fielded the last couple years and even they required a significant retool.

2) I agree with your assessment of the pieces of the Kawhi deal and even then, that's still really cheap for a Finals MVP caliber player. Look at what guys like George and Mitchell went for. Look at what Durant just went for. We got Leonard, who was arguably a Top 5 player for cheaper than what these other teams paid for the guys above. Let's say Giannis or Curry or Embiid or Jokic hit the market, do you think we could get them for what we paid for Kawhi? I highly, highly doubt it. The set of circumstances surrounding Kawhi at the time, mixed with our FOs willingness to take a massive gamble is what made that deal possible.

But at the end of the day, as evidenced that deal, you need to have a player like that or the ability to acquire one. As of now, we have neither.

Sorry why do we have neither? We can draft one at 13. We can trade for one with Barnes and 13. Barnes and a lottery pick/filler was good enough for a Durant package last summer (we balked at trading a ROY for a mid-30s star).

George, Mitchell and Durant had years left on their contracts, Kawai was one and done. Is the return on D Mitchell that different? Lauri, Sexton, Agbaji and three 1sts plus two swaps. The swaps won't likely impact, unless you think the Jazz will be better than the Cavs in the next half decade. Even if they are, it will likely be a Lakers Pels style swap this year.

We gave up DeMar, Poeltl, and a first. That's DeMar + 2 1sts + 2x 2nds converting Poeltl to picks. How is that much different when considering the amount of contract retention we had?

It wouldn't have been just Barnes and #13 though; I have to imagine that is why the FO balked and rightfully so. The contracts don't match so it would have required adding more of our depth in the form of contracts just to facilitate the trade. So now that we've moved Barnes + #13 plus at least one or two of FVV, Siakam, Trent or OG, how do we build a winner around our newly acquired star?

Correct - George , Mitchell and Durant had term left on his deal. Kawhi had one year and was just coming off of a year and change of not playing with a nagging injury that was mishandled by the Spurs. This is the reason he was on the market in the first place and why we won the eventual bid for him. No one wanted to pay what we were willing to and gamble that he would re-sign with them since it was pretty widely known Kawhi wanted to go back home to LA, which he eventually did, despite things literally going as well as you could possibly dream of here in Toronto. Had he had some term left on his deal, not being plagued by a nagging injury and/or not intended on going home, his price would likely have been through the roof.

Let's look at Mitchell, who is just a tier below Kawhi/Curry/Embiid etc.

The Nets got All-Star in Markannen, a starter in Sexton, #14, THREE unprotected firsts and two swaps. That is a WHOLE lot more than DeRozan, ONE FRP and Poeltl, even if you account for the 1st and 2nd we spent to re-acquire him.

[ArthurVandelay]

A couple things:

1.) The plan could be to draft the BPA at 13. That could end up being a star caliber player (re: Jalen Williams). Add a competent bench combo guard for the MLE ( say DDV). Get a healthy OPJ, and improved young guys (Koloko, Precious, Barnes and GTJ). We were 0.500, why can't this team have some sizable positive regression in close games (basically hand over the reigns to Scottie in that last 2 minutes) and end up with 50+ wins. We are not far off.

2.) Pennies on the dollar. DeMar has made multiple all star teams and an all NBA team since that trade. Keldon Johnson is at least a rotation player, and Poeltl just cost us a 1st and 2 seconds as an expiring to get back. How is that pennies? Worth it for a 'chip, absolutely! Pennies?

1) #13 could be star player, for sure. He also could not. No point debating that since we have no idea as of this moment who the pick will be. But let's say we do manage to get a Williams caliber player at #13...does that player make us good enough to compete in the Siakam/FVV window or would we be better off moving those guys and pairing #13 with Barnes and whatever else we get in a trade for Siakam/FVV, growing that core together and adding meaningful veterans later down the road? Or perhaps better put - do we believe that the guy we get at #13 is going to be a Kawhi/Giannis/Curry/LBJ/Jokic/Embiid type? Because that's the kind of piece we're missing right now. I personally think that those who believe we're an MLE signing away from contention are fooling themselves and history is on my side with that assertion. The Lowry/DeRozan era teams were much better than the ones we've fielded the last couple years and even they required a significant retool.

2) I agree with your assessment of the pieces of the Kawhi deal and even then, that's still really cheap for a Finals MVP caliber player. Look at what guys like George and Mitchell went for. Look at what Durant just went for. We got Leonard, who was arguably a Top 5 player for cheaper than what these other teams paid for the guys above. Let's say Giannis or Curry or Embiid or Jokic hit the market, do you think we could get them for what we paid for Kawhi? I highly, highly doubt it. The set of circumstances surrounding Kawhi at the time, mixed with our FOs willingness to take a massive gamble is what made that deal possible.

But at the end of the day, as evidenced that deal, you need to have a player like that or the ability to acquire one. As of now, we have neither.

Sorry why do we have neither? We can draft one at 13. We can trade for one with Barnes and 13. Barnes and a lottery pick/filler was good enough for a Durant package last summer (we balked at trading a ROY for a mid-30s star).

George, Mitchell and Durant had years left on their contracts, Kawai was one and done. Is the return on D Mitchell that different? Lauri, Sexton, Agbaji and three 1sts plus two swaps. The swaps won't likely impact, unless you think the Jazz will be better than the Cavs in the next half decade. Even if they are, it will likely be a Lakers Pels style swap this year.

We gave up DeMar, Poeltl, and a first. That's DeMar + 2 1sts + 2x 2nds + 1 LARRY O’BRIEN TROPHY converting Poeltl to picks. How is that much different when considering the amount of contract retention we had?

FTFY

[Dalek]

After watching all of these playoff games, i don’t want a safe guard anymore.

Give me Keyonte or Bufkin. Idc if they have high risk attached to them. I want exciting basketball in my city again and I’ll risk the 13th pick to make it happen.

After watching a lot of Keyonte in high school he just gives me a Scottie vibe. Just a fun, almost goofy type of personality, but at the same time has ball skills. I don't know if it works better to have the same type of guy for chemistry or if they will be out partying together.

Bufkin is interesting because of the leap he took - he just seems like a serious gym rate type. I still don't have the best feel of his playmaking so I question how good he will be. He seems like a 6 man to me but maybe that is a good starting point. He definitely checks the athleticism box.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Last 10 #13 picks

2022: Jalen Duren
2021: Chris Duarte
2020: Kira Lewis Jr.
2019: Tyler Herro
2018: Jerome Robinson
2017: Donovan Mitchell
2016: Georgios Papagiannis
2015: Devin Booker
2014: Zach LaVine
2013: Kelly Olynyk

Looks like guard is the way to go

[OakleyDokely]

Last 10 #13 picks

2022: Jalen Duren
2021: Chris Duarte
2020: Kira Lewis Jr.
2019: Tyler Herro
2018: Jerome Robinson
2017: Donovan Mitchell
2016: Georgios Papagiannis
2015: Devin Booker
2014: Zach LaVine
2013: Kelly Olynyk

Looks like guard is the way to go

#13 has been very lucky, except if you're Georgios Papagiannis

[WuTang_CMB]

Last 10 #13 picks

2022: Jalen Duren
2021: Chris Duarte
2020: Kira Lewis Jr.
2019: Tyler Herro
2018: Jerome Robinson
2017: Donovan Mitchell
2016: Georgios Papagiannis
2015: Devin Booker
2014: Zach LaVine
2013: Kelly Olynyk

Looks like guard is the way to go

#13 has been very lucky. Produced a lot of talent relative to pick #12 and pick #14.

We should get a good amount of guys in for workouts also

[niQ]

I haven't watched much video on this upcoming draft class. Who has the highest ceiling, that is projected around our pick? That's who we need to take , we need a home run but if we strikeout, oh well.

I asked a similar question regarding best shooter/potential a few pages back.

Some users say Jordan Hawkins is probably the best shooter including movement shooting. His shot has beautiful form too.

Some users said GG Jackson had the highest potential. I watched the coach spin and hoop intellect videos on youtube, and I can see the potential. When the shots go in, he looks great. But his demeanor when he doesn't have the ball or when playing defense in general is not the best to say the least. He's definitely one of those players who has never seen a shot he didn't like. (His defense is probably going to be a big reason why we won't draft him. Just a hunch.)

I get we want offense, creators, shooters, etc. Would the fans be willing to endure all the tunnel vision and bricks in GG's first few seasons?

[billy_hoyle]

1) #13 could be star player, for sure. He also could not. No point debating that since we have no idea as of this moment who the pick will be. But let's say we do manage to get a Williams caliber player at #13...does that player make us good enough to compete in the Siakam/FVV window or would we be better off moving those guys and pairing #13 with Barnes and whatever else we get in a trade for Siakam/FVV, growing that core together and adding meaningful veterans later down the road? Or perhaps better put - do we believe that the guy we get at #13 is going to be a Kawhi/Giannis/Curry/LBJ/Jokic/Embiid type? Because that's the kind of piece we're missing right now. I personally think that those who believe we're an MLE signing away from contention are fooling themselves and history is on my side with that assertion. The Lowry/DeRozan era teams were much better than the ones we've fielded the last couple years and even they required a significant retool.

2) I agree with your assessment of the pieces of the Kawhi deal and even then, that's still really cheap for a Finals MVP caliber player. Look at what guys like George and Mitchell went for. Look at what Durant just went for. We got Leonard, who was arguably a Top 5 player for cheaper than what these other teams paid for the guys above. Let's say Giannis or Curry or Embiid or Jokic hit the market, do you think we could get them for what we paid for Kawhi? I highly, highly doubt it. The set of circumstances surrounding Kawhi at the time, mixed with our FOs willingness to take a massive gamble is what made that deal possible.

But at the end of the day, as evidenced that deal, you need to have a player like that or the ability to acquire one. As of now, we have neither.

Sorry why do we have neither? We can draft one at 13. We can trade for one with Barnes and 13. Barnes and a lottery pick/filler was good enough for a Durant package last summer (we balked at trading a ROY for a mid-30s star).

George, Mitchell and Durant had years left on their contracts, Kawai was one and done. Is the return on D Mitchell that different? Lauri, Sexton, Agbaji and three 1sts plus two swaps. The swaps won't likely impact, unless you think the Jazz will be better than the Cavs in the next half decade. Even if they are, it will likely be a Lakers Pels style swap this year.

We gave up DeMar, Poeltl, and a first. That's DeMar + 2 1sts + 2x 2nds converting Poeltl to picks. How is that much different when considering the amount of contract retention we had?

It wouldn't have been just Barnes and #13 though; I have to imagine that is why the FO balked and rightfully so. The contracts don't match so it would have required adding more of our depth in the form of contracts just to facilitate the trade. So now that we've moved Barnes + #13 plus at least one or two of FVV, Siakam, Trent or OG, how do we build a winner around our newly acquired star?

Correct - George , Mitchell and Durant had term left on his deal. Kawhi had one year and was just coming off of a year and change of not playing with a nagging injury that was mishandled by the Spurs. This is the reason he was on the market in the first place and why we won the eventual bid for him. No one wanted to pay what we were willing to and gamble that he would re-sign with them since it was pretty widely known Kawhi wanted to go back home to LA, which he eventually did, despite things literally going as well as you could possibly dream of here in Toronto. Had he had some term left on his deal, not being plagued by a nagging injury and/or not intended on going home, his price would likely have been through the roof.

Let's look at Mitchell, who is just a tier below Kawhi/Curry/Embiid etc.

The Nets got All-Star in Markannen, a starter in Sexton, #14, THREE unprotected firsts and two swaps. That is a WHOLE lot more than DeRozan, ONE FRP and Poeltl, even if you account for the 1st and 2nd we spent to re-acquire him.

Like I'm not sure what you are saying...
Lauri < DeMar
Sexton ... A solid 6th man... No comparison
Agbagi < Keldon Johnson
3 1sts ~= 2 1sts + 4 years of Poeltl service
Swaps < 2 seconds

For:
3 yrs of D Mitch (possibly stays? Bird rights)
vs 1 yr of Kawai + Green (certain to leave)

These are similiar packages

[DreamTeam09]

Hendricks is gone at 10 to the Mavs, that's for certain. If they keep their pick of course, and if he isn't selected either.

[Psubs]

I haven't watched much video on this upcoming draft class. Who has the highest ceiling, that is projected around our pick? That's who we need to take , we need a home run but if we strikeout, oh well.

I asked a similar question regarding best shooter/potential a few pages back.

Some users say Jordan Hawkins is probably the best shooter including movement shooting. His shot has beautiful form too.

Some users said GG Jackson had the highest potential. I watched the coach spin and hoop intellect videos on youtube, and I can see the potential. When the shots go in, he looks great. But his demeanor when he doesn't have the ball or when playing defense in general is not the best to say the least. He's definitely one of those players who has never seen a shot he didn't like. (His defense is probably going to be a big reason why we won't draft him. Just a hunch.)

I get we want offense, creators, shooters, etc. Would the fans be willing to endure all the tunnel vision and bricks in GG's first few seasons?

Like T-Wac 2.0? At least he'll be a restricted FA after the rookie contract.

[Stromile12]

I haven't watched much video on this upcoming draft class. Who has the highest ceiling, that is projected around our pick? That's who we need to take , we need a home run but if we strikeout, oh well.

I asked a similar question regarding best shooter/potential a few pages back.

Some users say Jordan Hawkins is probably the best shooter including movement shooting. His shot has beautiful form too.

Some users said GG Jackson had the highest potential. I watched the coach spin and hoop intellect videos on youtube, and I can see the potential. When the shots go in, he looks great. But his demeanor when he doesn't have the ball or when playing defense in general is not the best to say the least. He's definitely one of those players who has never seen a shot he didn't like. (His defense is probably going to be a big reason why we won't draft him. Just a hunch.)

I get we want offense, creators, shooters, etc. Would the fans be willing to endure all the tunnel vision and bricks in GG's first few seasons?

I'm getting some Joe Johnson vibes from GG Jackson in the mid-range.

[nowayguy]

I haven't watched much video on this upcoming draft class. Who has the highest ceiling, that is projected around our pick? That's who we need to take , we need a home run but if we strikeout, oh well.

I asked a similar question regarding best shooter/potential a few pages back.

Some users say Jordan Hawkins is probably the best shooter including movement shooting. His shot has beautiful form too.

Some users said GG Jackson had the highest potential. I watched the coach spin and hoop intellect videos on youtube, and I can see the potential. When the shots go in, he looks great. But his demeanor when he doesn't have the ball or when playing defense in general is not the best to say the least. He's definitely one of those players who has never seen a shot he didn't like. (His defense is probably going to be a big reason why we won't draft him. Just a hunch.)

I get we want offense, creators, shooters, etc. Would the fans be willing to endure all the tunnel vision and bricks in GG's first few seasons?

"GG is still a kid", that's all I need to hear. How many chances will the Raptors have to add a 6'9 shot creator with NBA athleticism?