2023 Draft Discussion Part 5

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Don't think Bufkin or Alexander can run the point other than just basic bring the ball up and handoffs.

so essentially fred van vleet

but every fun-loving FVV fan says he's an underrated playmaker
(who has shown he can't be a fulltime or a even a decent playmaker - someone will get assists - just someone who has the ball in their hands a lot.)

[BoyzNTheHood]

I also disagree with Dean's assessment of the Thompson twins. He says that they are not even worth considering solely based on the league they played in which is just ignorantly dismissive IMO.

That's not true. He said maybe they were worth a late lottery pick or maybe a second rounder, but he wasn't willing to take a huge dive to figure out which since they'd be overdrafted anyway and it wasn't worth his time since there aren't comparables.

OTE is the worst choice they could’ve made. They dodged better competition at 20 years old. It says a lot, character wise and skill wise. They seem to fear better competition and that’s a huge red flag in the NBA. They also didn’t destroy that worse completion which doesn’t bode well for the HUMONGOUS leap it will be to transition from OTE to the NBA.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Don't think Bufkin or Alexander can run the point other than just basic bring the ball up and handoffs.

Yeah, they’re more combo guards than true points. I’d say the same about Cason Wallace though. All 3 of them are good scorers who defend hard.

Cason is definitely a step above those 2. The question with him is offensive upside, which is a big question mark for a lottery pick. I think all 3 are more in the safe pick category. At #13, I'm still looking for upside at that spot. Maybe if the roster was more set or had 2 legit half court options, I'd be inclined to play it safe. But I think this team needs shot creation.

We do but if we want to run an offense with a more nimble and agile SF who can handle the ball well, Cason would fit perfectly and help us defend at a solid level with OG's departure. I think Bufkin would also work pretty well with Barnes and Poeltl utilizing their screens and hopefully evolve into a guy who can get to his spots and get off shots largely undisturbed.

Bottom line is that we have a lot of time to answer those questions because we're not winning anything any time soon and can go in a multitude of directions. I think understanding what we want to do offensively with a new coach is the most important thing before we come to any solid conclusions about roster construction and fit. It's Masai's job to help us find players who can execute a vision/style and not just find players who don't fit well together and have the coach try to "make it work".

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I also disagree with Dean's assessment of the Thompson twins. He says that they are not even worth considering solely based on the league they played in which is just ignorantly dismissive IMO.

That's not true. He said maybe they were worth a late lottery pick or maybe a second rounder, but he wasn't willing to take a huge dive to figure out which since they'd be overdrafted anyway. Better to just not scout them as they won't be available when they will probably be worth selecting. There aren't comparables and they're the hardest prospects to get a read on because of the competition.

He did say that but maybe also said what you're saying somewhere else. That's all fine and dandy but the bottom line is that he is siding with them being essentially worthy of taken in project/bench player territory and that's just wild to me.

[Yallbecrazy]

I also disagree with Dean's assessment of the Thompson twins. He says that they are not even worth considering solely based on the league they played in which is just ignorantly dismissive IMO.

That's not true. He said maybe they were worth a late lottery pick or maybe a second rounder, but he wasn't willing to take a huge dive to figure out which since they'd be overdrafted anyway and it wasn't worth his time since there aren't comparables.

OTE is the worst choice they could’ve made. They dodged better competition at 20 years old. It says a lot, character wise and skill wise. They seem to fear better competition and that’s a huge red flag in the NBA. They also didn’t destroy that worse completion which doesn’t bode well for the HUMONGOUS leap it will be to transition from OTE to the NBA.

I disagree, OTE may be the best choice since it looks like they are both going to be top 10 picks, if they showed to be awful in college that's a lot of money between a top 10 contract and a 2nd round pick/ possibly undrafted.

[BoyzNTheHood]

That's not true. He said maybe they were worth a late lottery pick or maybe a second rounder, but he wasn't willing to take a huge dive to figure out which since they'd be overdrafted anyway and it wasn't worth his time since there aren't comparables.

OTE is the worst choice they could’ve made. They dodged better competition at 20 years old. It says a lot, character wise and skill wise. They seem to fear better competition and that’s a huge red flag in the NBA. They also didn’t destroy that worse completion which doesn’t bode well for the HUMONGOUS leap it will be to transition from OTE to the NBA.

I disagree, OTE may be the best choice since it looks like they are both going to be top 10 picks, if they showed to be awful in college that's a lot of money between a top 10 contract and a 2nd round pick/ possibly undrafted.

If you’re looking at it from a money perspective, yes. But if you’re looking at it purely from the long term outlook like I am it’s not. If I were a GM I wouldn’t touch them with a lottery pick. So in my mind, their decision was terrible.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

And obviously they have to go high no matter what because of the premium you pay for that kind of otherworldly athleticism and display of basketball skills (handle, finishing, etc..).

I'd feel a lot worse about the Thompsons if they had no interest in defending, had loose handles and were just pure scorers with limited ability to contribute in other areas but the fact that they are actually strong in those other areas gives me quite a bit of confidence.

[Los_29]

This guy is excellent. He's better than 95% of scouts working for NBA teams. lol.

Yup he is the best - he should be at least on ESPN. Let's see a couple gems. Look at his comp for Scottie back in the day in 2021:

SloMo has near identical dimensions to Barnes and was similarly disruptive on defense. The major difference is that Barnes moves in regular motion, and was able to self-create for himself and teammates better as a freshman, which is a fairly significant advantage.

Anderson had a better NCAA FT% (73.5 vs 62) which has finally translated into a decent 3 point shot this past season at age 27, but he was a decent rotation player before then and now solidly good. He also had a much better NCAA DREB% (23 vs 11.1) and had the better basketball IQ to help compensate for his slowness.

It’s not a lock that Barnes will be as good or better than Anderson in the NBA, but he is a clearly superior prospect and on average should be better than Anderson. Given that Anderson would likely be worth a top 10 pick in this draft, it’s not a bad soft floor to have.

https://deanondraft.com/2021/06/15/how-good-is-scottie-barnes/

Slo Mo top 10 pick in the 2021 draft. Amazing stuff.

How about 2018? RJ Barrett no. 1 Jontay Porter no. 2 and Nas Little no. 3.

3. Nassir Little 6’6″ SF, North Carolina

Little is being hyped as the #2 guy to challenge Barrett. He is extremely athletic with a long 7’2″ wingspan and has potential to be highly disruptive on defense.

https://deanondraft.com/2018/06/
His no. 9 was Ja Morant and no. 11 was Zion Williams.

Please don't quote Dean. Half the board could do better than this guy.

His final 2021 draft board was 1. Mobley 2. Scottie Barnes which looks pretty damn good right about now.

You picked his 2019 rankings pre NCAA in June of 2018, he changed them as the season progressed.
Mid-season he had Zion #1, JA #2. I couldn't find his final 2019 rankings, unsure if he even did one.

I'm really not sure what you are trying to do here. He clearly has rankings that are very different from other scouts and some of those will be wrong and some will be right (and he's more right than wrong relatively), but the two examples you picked to say he was wrong was one where he was very right and another which was over a year before the draft where everyone's rankings are terrible. He actually had JA much higher than anyone else at that stage.

I just looked it up and I can't believe how disingenuous that was. Even in his mid-season draft board he moved Zion right up to #1, Ja at #2. To use his rankings from June 2018 for the 2019 NBA draft is absolutely wild.

And Dean is and was a huge fan of Scottie Barnes. For him to only include the part about SloMo is also incredibly disingenuous because it's ignoring the other players that Dean was comparing him to.

[Bruin]

Have we even worked anyone out yet? Feel like we usually have guys come in by now

[Bruin]

Taylor Hendricks

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[Los_29]

I'm really not sure what you are trying to do here. He clearly has rankings that are very different from other scouts and some of those will be wrong and some will be right (and he's more right than wrong relatively), but the two examples you picked to say he was wrong was one where he was very right and another which was over a year before the draft where everyone's rankings are terrible. He actually had JA much higher than anyone else at that stage.

He has a ton of bad takes over the years and a few good ones. He just bugs me because he can be outright dismissive of players if he can't find numbers he likes. He almost solely relies on size and age and shooting numbers of past prospects to determine predictability of prospects. Often outright leaving out the eye test and high school rankings.

This year, the Thompson twins are not draftable for him because he doesn't think it is fair to evaluate these 20 YOs in their league. Nick Smith is also terrible in his eyes while Jaime Jaquez is within the top 10. It maybe early draftboards but those takes often inform a lot of opinions here for months.

I do think there are many new pathways for players and they often don't treat college or other leagues like OTE other than training steps for the NBA. Also systems and players around them, injuries and parity in leagues influence their situation and can mean they don't hit is number thresholds.

Nick Smith did put up horrendous numbers in college and he looked awful. He compared Smith to players he's been compared with like Maxey, Poole and Herro and it's not pretty. I don't think Dean ruled out the possibility of him being as good as them, just that it's not really a player you should be taking with a 1st round pick because he's just not very good at basketball at this point in his career. A taller Lou Williams isn't a terrible comparison.

Amen and Ausar do have tons of questions about their level of competition. Dude, they are 20 years old playing high school kids in a TERRIBLE league. That's not to say they can't be very good but it's definitely something to be considered.

In regards to Jaquez, he's quite realistic about what kind of player he can become. He's not saying he has tons of upside but he thinks that his floor is pretty high and he can play basketball at a high level as opposed to some guys in the lottery who at this point, stink at basketball.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Taylor Hendricks

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Bartovik has him at 65% for “at the rim” finishes. All that matters are the overall numbers, not whether you hit layups less often than dunks.

[Morse Code]

Cason Wallace gives me backup PG vibes. I would feel much better about him if he could shoot.

I agree and I'm also starting to wonder if Bilal is going to be a starter in the league. Have huge questions about him after I was super high on him last month.

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[Bruin]

Taylor Hendricks

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Bartovik has him at 65% for “at the rim” finishes. All that matters are the overall numbers, not whether you hit layups less often than dunks.

It kinda matters when he gets contested at the rim and struggles to finish through contact. He’s gonna need to work on that

[BoyzNTheHood]

Taylor Hendricks

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Bartovik has him at 65% for “at the rim” finishes. All that matters are the overall numbers, not whether you hit layups less often than dunks.

It kinda matters when he gets contested at the rim and struggles to finish through contact. He’s gonna need to work on that

It’s definitely something he needs to work on, but my ultimate concern would just be him finishing plays overall.

[Rapsfan07]

And obviously they have to go high no matter what because of the premium you pay for that kind of otherworldly athleticism and display of basketball skills (handle, finishing, etc..).

I'd feel a lot worse about the Thompsons if they had no interest in defending, had loose handles and were just pure scorers with limited ability to contribute in other areas but the fact that they are actually strong in those other areas gives me quite a bit of confidence.

I agree.

Honestly I am a bit concerned as to why they chose the OTE route instead of college (maybe there's something there that we don't know about?) but I have to say, I like what I see from both of them. With Amen especially - if he manages to shoot between 33-35% from 3 in the league, I don't see how he's not a superstar.

I think his floor is John Wall so I'm shocked so many people are down on him.

As for Ausur, he doesn't have the level of athleticism that his brother does but he's already a good shooter. If his shot continues to improve, I think he could also see an All-Star game or two in his career.

[Rapsfan07]

Cason Wallace gives me backup PG vibes. I would feel much better about him if he could shoot.

I agree and I'm also starting to wonder if Bilal is going to be a starter in the league. Have huge questions about him after I was super high on him last month.

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Cason Wallace is no Steph Curry and sure he could stand to improve in that area but I don't think he's horrible there. He shot it at 34% on the season. If he's there at #13, I think you have to give him every consideration, assuming his back checks out okay.

As for Bilal, I've always thought he was quite a bit overhyped. I think he has role player potential but some are saying superstar and I just don't see that.

[dozo]

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[Dalek]

I also disagree with Dean's assessment of the Thompson twins. He says that they are not even worth considering solely based on the league they played in which is just ignorantly dismissive IMO.

That's not true. He said maybe they were worth a late lottery pick or maybe a second rounder, but he wasn't willing to take a huge dive to figure out which since they'd be overdrafted anyway and it wasn't worth his time since there aren't comparables.

OTE is the worst choice they could’ve made. They dodged better competition at 20 years old. It says a lot, character wise and skill wise. They seem to fear better competition and that’s a huge red flag in the NBA. They also didn’t destroy that worse completion which doesn’t bode well for the HUMONGOUS leap it will be to transition from OTE to the NBA.

I think they took a leap of faith with OTE. This league was supposed to have state of the art training facilities and they got I believe $500k each to go there. Overtime has a huge following in the US, so it helped to build their marketability. They got offers for US colleges, but they chose to go a different route and for such a short time it was worth the gamble. Not everyone has a great college experience because coaches are not there to develop players.

We are now seeing players from the G-League, NBL, European lower leagues, all coming into the draft so OTE is just another option.

Character-wise I really like these kids. They don't seem to have any ego, and really study and love the game. Obviously being 6'7 and great athletes with some high level passing skill and defense makes them intriguing no matter what league they play in.

[Spates]

Taylor Hendricks

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Bartovik has him at 65% for “at the rim” finishes. All that matters are the overall numbers, not whether you hit layups less often than dunks.

But what if he dunks more in transition than in half-court. Transitioning finishing would then bias the at rim stat.