Raptors NBA Draft Thread: Damian Lillard (POR)

[Indeed]

I think he can be a starter in this league.
However, I think Henson might be the BPA, and I would take him over Lillard. Besides there are also good point guards coming next year.

[Double Helix]

So those of you that want us to draft Lillard at 8:

1. Do you see him as a lead guard in the NBA?

2. What do you see him averaging?

The problem here is that even Lillard himself has set a moderate target by comparing himself to Teague. I honestly think he has enough talent to surpass that level while also being a bit better than Mo Williams too. Let's first look at the FTA stats of some players recently compared to him over 40 minutes:

FTAs (adjusted per 40)

Teague's 2nd year at Wake: 7.1/game.
Teague's current year in the NBA: 3.1

Mo William's 2nd year at Alabama: 4.5/game
Mo's best year in the NBA (Going by this now that he's getting older): 4.1/game

And now some other small school PGs that were asked to do a lot

Rodney Stuckey's 2nd year at Eastern Washington: 10.5/game
Rodney Stuckey's current year in the NBA: 7.8/game.

Isiah Thomas's final year at Washintong: 7.5/game
Isiah Thoma's first year in the NBA: 4.3/game.

Jameer Nelson's final year at St. Josephs: 5.5/game
Jameer Nelson's current year in the NBA: 2.1/game.

Jeremy lin's final year at Standford: 8.4/game
Jeremy Lin's current year in the NBA: 7.8/game

And finally one of the best 6'2 PGs in terms of shooting efficiency to come out of the NCAA in a while.

Kyrie Irving's only year at Duke: 9.4/game
Kyrie Irving's only year in the NBA: 5.0/game

Damien Lillard's final year at Weber: 9.3/game.

ROUGH CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: He's much better at attacking the net than Mo Williams was. He's in good company with some other PGs this year who get to the line a lot (Lin/Stuckey are both leaders in this category). There's reason to believe he could be an elite FTA guy when you consider all of the above.

[Double Helix]

And now, a quick comparison of TS% and PER across the same players in college and the NBA:

Mo Williams final year at Alabama:
TS% 0.53
PER: 18.7

Mo Williams best year in the NBA (Since he's older):
TS% 0.59
PER: 17.2

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Jeff Teague's final year at Wake:
TS% 0.62
PER: 24.0

Jeff Teague's most recent year in the NBA:
TS% 0.55
PER: 15.8

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Rodney Stuckey's final year at Eastern Washington:
TS% 0.57
PER: 31.0

Rodney Stuckey's most recent year at NBA:
TS% 0.54
PER: 17.6

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Isiah Thomas' final year at Washington:
TS% 0.56
PER: 22.6

Isiah Thomas' rookie year:
TS% 0.57
PER: 17.6

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Jeremy Lin's final year at Stanford:
TS% 0.64
PER: 19.2

Jeremy Lin's most recent in the NBA:
TS% 0.55
PER: 19.9

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Jameer Nelson's final year at St. Josephs:
TS% 0.59
PER: 31.5

Jameer Nelson's best year in the NBA (since he's older):
TS% 0.61
PER: 20.6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Kyrie Irving's only year at Duke:
TS% 0.70
PER: 32.5

Kyrie Irving's rookie year with the Cavs:
TS% 0.56
PER: 21.4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Damian Lillard's final year at Weber:
TS% 0.64
PER: 33.8

ROUGH CONCLUSION/INTERPRETATION: Lillard's accomplishments are no joke and this kind of shooting ability has translated into succesful shooting ability and above average PERs at the next level. You combine that with a special ability to draw contact and finish and there's no reason to think he can't be better than a Jeff Teague, Rodney Stuckey, Jameer Nelson, Jeremy Lin type of PG when he enters his prime years.

I think PERs of 16.5.0-19.0 could be acheievable if all works out for him and he finds himself in a great situation. The peak end of that would likely be his best in the league. I think PERs of 15.5-17.0 might be realistic projections. I will be surprised if he struggles beyond that with his skillset and %s.

[Rhettmatic]

^ Thanks DH. Do you think you could include whether those were freshmen/sophomores/juniors/seniors? I don't think it's fair to compare Lillard's numbers as a senior to Stuckey or Teague's numbers as sophomores, for instance.

[cdel00]

That's why he's not Single Helix. DH should be paid


Here's a comparison Lillards is to the NBA as DH is to this forum

[Double Helix]

I'll try to quickly tell you how many years each guy played in the NCAA. I always took their final year stats:

Mo - 2 years
Lin - 4 years
Jameer - 3 years
Thomas - 3 years
Teague - 2 years
Stuckey - 2 years (Note: Stuckey was 19 turning 20 his first year in college)
Irving - 1 year
Lillard - 4 years (1 redshirt - He likely would have declared last year had he not been injured)

[niQ]

Wow, thanks for that Double Helix. Definitely warming up to the idea of us drafting Lillard if we don't get a top 3 pick.

Will be hard to find a suitable nick name though...

[cdel00]

Lillard's Sophmore numbers:

PER: 24.6
TS%: 59%
FGA: 6.2

[Consequence]

That all sounds pretty good to me.

[DG88]

DH highlighted why I'm high on Lillard, his efficiency with the ball is quite amazing. Great shooter from 3 point range, mid range and at the basket. He gets to the line a ton and converts at a 90% clip. That type of efficiency should translate well in the pros. His ability to break down the defense, create his own shot and create shots for other is something people have been whining about not having for so damn long. We have a chance of drafting a prospect that can do that and people brush him aside. The kid works hard and I believe he'll develop into a pretty good point guard in the future.

[kingz32]

Definitely warming up to the idea of us drafting Lillard if we don't get a top 3 pick.

Will be hard to find a suitable nick name though...

"D-Lill"

[Dr Positivity]

The nick for Lillard clearly has to be "The Omen"

[Dr Positivity]

DX thanks for the work, but the issue is we just don't know how much being a senior in the Big Sky conference played into that efficiency. My biggest concern with Lillard is whether he'll be able to score points within 10 feet consistently. Although his Weber State numbers suggest he can, I don't know if I'm seeing it on the tapes from his physical/skill level combo. A lot of 6'3 SGs have fallen into the trap of not having the PG skills for a 1 and not being physically dominant enough to do more than shoot jumpers at the 2. Lillard looks the "good son" version of Rivers, with a nice good IQ and actual elite shooting numbers instead of just the reputation of being a great shooter, but I'm still not sure what that means

I like the Jeff Teague comparison though

[Double Helix]

I think any way you slice it the guy is going to have a career in the league and is an interesting low risk/medium upside pick for us or anybody beyond us.

The only other players that are available at 8 that I think have the potential to put up PER seasons of 17-20+ during their prime years are:

Jered Sullinger - Paul Millsap/Zach Randolph/Carlos Boozer/Kevin Love have all shown me that you don't need to have Blake Griffin or Amare athleticism at the PF spot to be dominant.

Perry Jones - IF and it's a big IF... he dramatically improved from where he is now. He has the talent, the athleticism and the build but if he doesn't have the desire, the heart or the effort then what's the point?

Jeremy Lamb - As others have said, I like this kid's game. I think he'll improve as a pro and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being as good as Barnes in the long-run.

Austin Rivers - He's still so young and there's no denying the talent. I want to believe but the numbers just aren't there. It would require a leap of faith based on his workouts (and he'll look awesome in an open gym) but that's also how you hit home runs in these drafts (See Westbrook as an extreme example). I would be excited if we drafted him only because I would assume that he wowed in the workout and that the scouts are projecting big things. He doesn't have any work ethic issues so I'm fine there.

Those 5 are my favorite guys that I believe *could* become PER 17-20 types during their primes. I think Sullinger and Lillard as a result of their efficiencies stand the best chances though. The other 3 would have to make various degrees of improvement (Rivers especially) but we're still picking in a very interesting spot.

[Eating a Book]

I think any way you slice it the guy is going to have a career in the league and is an interesting low risk/medium upside pick for us or anybody beyond us.

The only other players that are available at 8 that I think have the potential to put up PER seasons of 17-20+ during their prime years are:

Jered Sullinger - Paul Millsap/Zach Randolph/Carlos Boozer/Kevin Love have all shown me that you don't need to have Blake Griffin or Amare athleticism at the PF spot to be dominant.

Perry Jones - IF and it's a big IF... he dramatically improved from where he is now. He has the talent, the athleticism and the build but if he doesn't have the desire, the heart or the effort then what's the point?

Jeremy Lamb - As others have said, I like this kid's game. I think he'll improve as a pro and I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up being as good as Barnes in the long-run.

Austin Rivers - He's still so young and there's no denying the talent. I want to believe but the numbers just aren't there. It would require a leap of faith based on his workouts (and he'll look awesome in an open gym) but that's also how you hit home runs in these drafts (See Westbrook as an extreme example). I would be excited if we drafted him only because I would assume that he wowed in the workout and that the scouts are projecting big things. He doesn't have any work ethic issues so I'm fine there.

Those 5 are my favorite guys that I believe *could* become PER 17-20 types during their primes. I think Sullinger and Lillard as a result of their efficiencies stand the best chances though. The other 3 would have to make various degrees of improvement (Rivers especially) but we're still picking in a very interesting spot.

Sullinger I can even see hitting that mark in his rookie year if he has a good summer and stays trim.

[Dr Positivity]

I would give Leonard, Moultrie, T Jones, Marshall, T Zeller, T Ross, Waiters, White and Machado a chance at 17 PER+ as well personally. That's a lot with the players DH listed and the expected top 6 but I like this draft's depth a ton in terms of players with top 15 starter potential

[MEDIC]

So those of you that want us to draft Lillard at 8:

1. Do you see him as a lead guard in the NBA?

2. What do you see him averaging?

The problem here is that even Lillard himself has set a moderate target by comparing himself to Teague. I honestly think he has enough talent to surpass that level while also being a bit better than Mo Williams too. Let's first look at the FTA stats of some players recently compared to him over 40 minutes:

FTAs (adjusted per 40)

What about JB's numbers? What do they look like?

How about Johnny Flynn?

[MEDIC]

Wow, you compare Lillard's Senior season numbers to Jerryd Bayless Freshman numbers & they are eerily similar.

Both got to the line a ton, shot similar %'s & had terrible assist/ turnover ratio's.

Jerryd did it in a tougher conference & was much younger though.

Lillard is only 2 years younger than Bayless. You put Bayless on that Weber State squad, play him 35 MPG & see what happens.

What would Jonny Flynn do on that Weber State team after 4 years?

[Indeed]

Lillard seems to have better passing skill than Bayless, and he seems to see the floor better without going out of control. Also, it seems Weber State was running very similar offense, which might gives Lillard some advantage. However, I think Bayless is quicker, even Lillard maybe a better finisher, Lillard might not be as efficient as Bayless in getting into the lane.

[Garmfay]

Wow, you compare Lillard's Senior season numbers to Jerryd Bayless Freshman numbers & they are eerily similar.

Both got to the line a ton, shot similar %'s & had terrible assist/ turnover ratio's.

Jerryd did it in a tougher conference & was much younger though.

Lillard is only 2 years younger than Bayless. You put Bayless on that Weber State squad, play him 35 MPG & see what happens.

What would Jonny Flynn do on that Weber State team after 4 years?

I agree, its ridiculous how these Bayless haters are hoping on the Lillard Bandwagon.