Draft Thread Part 4

[720]

Looks underwhelming. I hope we stay away.

You mean his stats at duke?

No. How he plays - dont see anything there. Lots of better prospects imo.

What’s underwhelming about how he plays? He has great measurements at 6 foot 9 with a 6’11 wingspan. Showed that he can be a real asset on defense with his versatility on that end. He is also a nuisance with decent blocking and steal numbers. Has shown that he can punish defenders when they sag off of him to cut off his driving lane by hitting three pointers at good percentages. He has the ability dribble well for his size and also can bring the ball up the court and initiate offensive sequences. He can drive and post up as well. He has so much potential and there is nothing to not like other than his off the court issues with coaches.

[DreamTeam09]

I would take Jalen Johnson in the 7-9 range.

Looks underwhelming. I hope we stay away.

You mean his stats at duke?

His stats and his game looks underwhelming

[Dalek]

In the previous thread I mentioned Kai Jones, but just wanted to mention him as the best option for Toronto from picks 7-10.

Here is example of the full Kai Jones experience (contests a shot on the perimeter then in transition, catches the ball and attacks with a eurostep to score:

Read on Twitter

Here is locking up Cade with no help:

Read on Twitter

The block and dunk special - noticing how he beats the other team down the floor:

Read on Twitter

Remembering Kai is 6'11 and this fluid with the effort he shows it just feels natural that he will become a star player in the NBA barring injury. Toronto, which develops lanky athletic guys like Siakam and Boucher could make this guy special. This is no Bruno situation where he lacks fluidity and talent.

[OakleyDokely]

If Fred had Mitchell’s first step he’d be an all star every year. So yeah if Mitchell is fvv with an elite first step I’m taking that with the 7th pick.

Fred was a very good shooter in college. 80% FT shooter and close to 40% from 3 over his college career.

Mitchell doesn't have that kind resume. His shooting splits are more like Beverely/Smart over his college career.

Davion's career college 3FG% is 37.6% vs. 38.6% for Fred so not really all that different. What is different is Mitchell shot 52.5% on 2s vs. only 44.7% for Fred. We sure are making a big deal out of 2 FTAs per game when the much bigger sample sizes from the field would indicate Mitchell is a quality scorer. FWIW Beverley was 46% on 2s and Smart was 48% on 2s and 29% on 3s so saying Mitchell's splits were more like those guys isn't really giving him a fair shake.

Davion's FT% by year:
67%
66%
64%

Davion 3PT% by year:
28%
32%
45%


VanVleet was a consistent shooter throughout his college career. Davion hasnt been, other than the one outlier.

[WuTang_CMB]

You mean his stats at duke?

No. How he plays - dont see anything there. Lots of better prospects imo.

What’s underwhelming about how he plays? He has great measurements at 6 foot 9 with a 6’11 wingspan. Showed that he can be a real asset on defense with his versatility on that end. He is also a nuisance with decent blocking and steal numbers. Has shown that he can punish defenders when they sag off of him to cut off his driving lane by hitting three pointers at good percentages. He has the ability dribble well for his size and also can bring the ball up the court and initiate offensive sequences. He can drive and post up as well. He has so much potential and there is nothing to not like other than his off the court issues with coaches.

What does he do on the offensive end? He doesnt create. He doesnt shoot it. He has no play making. He's not a go all out type of guy like a Barnes or Johnson. Night and day from a skill site to a freshman like Moody.. So, What am i missing?

[Indeed]

Looks underwhelming. I hope we stay away.

You mean his stats at duke?

No. How he plays - dont see anything there. Lots of better prospects imo.

Shooting is a concern, and shot creation, but could be a top 10 pick (without the red flag).
Lack of effort and being red flag are the biggest concerns.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[WuTang_CMB]

You mean his stats at duke?

No. How he plays - dont see anything there. Lots of better prospects imo.

Shooting is a concern, and shot creation, but could be a top 10 pick (without the red flag).
Lack of effort and being red flag are the biggest concerns.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

We don't even sniuff at guys who show any lck of effort, not to mention guys with no effort / lack of skill.

You take this guy 20+ and hope for the best. Not at 7 ... way too many better prospects right now

[VanWest82]

Fred was a very good shooter in college. 80% FT shooter and close to 40% from 3 over his college career.

Mitchell doesn't have that kind resume. His shooting splits are more like Beverely/Smart over his college career.

Davion's career college 3FG% is 37.6% vs. 38.6% for Fred so not really all that different. What is different is Mitchell shot 52.5% on 2s vs. only 44.7% for Fred. We sure are making a big deal out of 2 FTAs per game when the much bigger sample sizes from the field would indicate Mitchell is a quality scorer. FWIW Beverley was 46% on 2s and Smart was 48% on 2s and 29% on 3s so saying Mitchell's splits were more like those guys isn't really giving him a fair shake.

Davion's FT% by year:
67%
66%
64%

Davion 3PT% by year:
28%
32%
45%


VanVleet was a consistent shooter throughout his college career. Davion hasnt been, other than the one outlier.

Except the outlier was the biggest sample. Do any background check on him and you'll hear stories about how hard he worked to improve his game. What's more likely that Davion worked extremely hard to improve his shooting and overall offensive game which led to increases in shooting %, assists, less turnovers, etc., or that it was all just one big outlier fluke?

And to hammer the point, I used his career college numbers not just his big junior year. Even when you mix in the bad shooting years it still looks better than the guys you listed.

[OakleyDokely]

Davion's career college 3FG% is 37.6% vs. 38.6% for Fred so not really all that different. What is different is Mitchell shot 52.5% on 2s vs. only 44.7% for Fred. We sure are making a big deal out of 2 FTAs per game when the much bigger sample sizes from the field would indicate Mitchell is a quality scorer. FWIW Beverley was 46% on 2s and Smart was 48% on 2s and 29% on 3s so saying Mitchell's splits were more like those guys isn't really giving him a fair shake.

Davion's FT% by year:
67%
66%
64%

Davion 3PT% by year:
28%
32%
45%


VanVleet was a consistent shooter throughout his college career. Davion hasnt been, other than the one outlier.

Except the outlier was the biggest sample. Do any background check on him and you'll hear stories about how hard he worked to improve his game. What's more likely that Davion worked extremely hard to improve his shooting and overall offensive game which led to increases in shooting %, assists, less turnovers, etc., or that it was all just one big outlier fluke?

I don't doubt his work ethic. But when i look at his stats and size, I see rotation guard. Nice player, but not someone I'd take 7th.

His offensive numbers are extremely underwhelming for someone his age. A top pick at his experience level should be dominating at the college level.

[Indeed]

Fred was a very good shooter in college. 80% FT shooter and close to 40% from 3 over his college career.

Mitchell doesn't have that kind resume. His shooting splits are more like Beverely/Smart over his college career.

Davion's career college 3FG% is 37.6% vs. 38.6% for Fred so not really all that different. What is different is Mitchell shot 52.5% on 2s vs. only 44.7% for Fred. We sure are making a big deal out of 2 FTAs per game when the much bigger sample sizes from the field would indicate Mitchell is a quality scorer. FWIW Beverley was 46% on 2s and Smart was 48% on 2s and 29% on 3s so saying Mitchell's splits were more like those guys isn't really giving him a fair shake.

Davion's FT% by year:
67%
66%
64%

Davion 3PT% by year:
28%
32%
45%


VanVleet was a consistent shooter throughout his college career. Davion hasnt been, other than the one outlier.

Isn't his 3PT% has been consistently improving? What exactly do you expecting from someone who wants to improve their 3 point shooting? All of a sudden jumps to 40% and keep it that way?

Meanwhile, I can understand the shooting concern, but comparing him to Smart who has no moves / elite quickness is non-sense to me. His offense is not black and white, and playing as a secondary ball handler with VanVleet and Siakam works with our style (I don't think our system has a single ball dominate offensive player).

As for picking him at 7 is a bit high, but calling him like a mid-bottom 1st, that is just a bit over, imo.

[B-Ball Freak]

Jalen Johnson just seems like the type of guy that'll be out of the league in 2-3 years.

[VanWest82]

Davion's FT% by year:
67%
66%
64%

Davion 3PT% by year:
28%
32%
45%


VanVleet was a consistent shooter throughout his college career. Davion hasnt been, other than the one outlier.

Except the outlier was the biggest sample. Do any background check on him and you'll hear stories about how hard he worked to improve his game. What's more likely that Davion worked extremely hard to improve his shooting and overall offensive game which led to increases in shooting %, assists, less turnovers, etc., or that it was all just one big outlier fluke?

I don't doubt his work ethic. But when i look at his stats and size, I see rotation guard. Nice player, but not someone I'd take 7th.

His offensive numbers are extremely underwhelming for someone his age.

That's fine - no one says you have to like him as a prospect or want us to take him. I'm just taking issue with making faulty comparisons to guys like Beverley and Smart, or claiming VanVleet is Mitchell's absolute top end ceiling when Davion's credentials are just as good and he's way more athletic.

Also, there are good reasons why his raw numbers look somewhat underwhelming in comparison to other guards (e.g. he had to share the ball with two other ball dominant guards, whereas other PGs had it in their hands way more).

[Indeed]

In the previous thread I mentioned Kai Jones, but just wanted to mention him as the best option for Toronto from picks 7-10.

Here is example of the full Kai Jones experience (contests a shot on the perimeter then in transition, catches the ball and attacks with a eurostep to score:

Read on Twitter

Here is locking up Cade with no help:

Read on Twitter

The block and dunk special - noticing how he beats the other team down the floor:

Read on Twitter

Remembering Kai is 6'11 and this fluid with the effort he shows it just feels natural that he will become a star player in the NBA barring injury. Toronto, which develops lanky athletic guys like Siakam and Boucher could make this guy special. This is no Bruno situation where he lacks fluidity and talent.

I have him at 7 - 9 as our first option. Really like his ability to defend 1 - 5, and he can develop his 3 point shooting and ball handling.
Really wish he measures out longer than 7'1. I prefer someone with 7'3 wingspan to play the C spot.

[720]

No. How he plays - dont see anything there. Lots of better prospects imo.

What’s underwhelming about how he plays? He has great measurements at 6 foot 9 with a 6’11 wingspan. Showed that he can be a real asset on defense with his versatility on that end. He is also a nuisance with decent blocking and steal numbers. Has shown that he can punish defenders when they sag off of him to cut off his driving lane by hitting three pointers at good percentages. He has the ability dribble well for his size and also can bring the ball up the court and initiate offensive sequences. He can drive and post up as well. He has so much potential and there is nothing to not like other than his off the court issues with coaches.

What does he do on the offensive end? He doesnt create. He doesnt shoot it. He has no play making. He's not a go all out type of guy like a Barnes or Johnson. Night and day from a skill site to a freshman like Moody.. So, What am i missing?

I don’t know if we’re talking about the same player tbh.

One of his best assets is his ability to read the defense and make the timely pass.

His shooting is decent, inconsistent at times but in college the limited time we saw him play he has shown that he can make jump shots occasionally and punish the defense.

His ability to post up and as well as dribble drive opens up a lot of paths for him in the half court. He uses his strength and size well to create space in the lane and punish players on the post. He will only get better since he theoretically has no limitations.

Lastly, he has shown that he is quick enough and long enough to handle guarding most guys out in the perimeter and possesses the strength to also defend guys in the interior.

He isn’t a finished product and might not be as NBA ready as some other guys but his potential is one of the highest in this draft.

[OakleyDokely]

Except the outlier was the biggest sample. Do any background check on him and you'll hear stories about how hard he worked to improve his game. What's more likely that Davion worked extremely hard to improve his shooting and overall offensive game which led to increases in shooting %, assists, less turnovers, etc., or that it was all just one big outlier fluke?

I don't doubt his work ethic. But when i look at his stats and size, I see rotation guard. Nice player, but not someone I'd take 7th.

His offensive numbers are extremely underwhelming for someone his age.

That's fine - no one says you have to like him as a prospect or want us to take him. I'm just taking issue with making faulty comparisons to guys like Beverley and Smart, or claiming VanVleet is Mitchell's absolute top end ceiling when Davion's credentials are just as good and he's way more athletic.

Also, there are good reasons why his raw numbers look somewhat underwhelming in comparison to other guards (e.g. he had to share the ball with two other ball dominant guards, whereas other PGs had it in their hands way more).

VV, Beverely, Smart are all-defensive caliber guards who can knock down 3s. If Mitchell turns out like that, he will be a success. It's definitely not a lock that happens.

I just don't see where people are seeing star potential with him.

[Son Goku 25]

Looking at Kai and imagining him somehow developing into KD on offense.. not many ppl his size and length with athletic ability

[Marty_Budda]

I don't doubt his work ethic. But when i look at his stats and size, I see rotation guard. Nice player, but not someone I'd take 7th.

His offensive numbers are extremely underwhelming for someone his age.

That's fine - no one says you have to like him as a prospect or want us to take him. I'm just taking issue with making faulty comparisons to guys like Beverley and Smart, or claiming VanVleet is Mitchell's absolute top end ceiling when Davion's credentials are just as good and he's way more athletic.

Also, there are good reasons why his raw numbers look somewhat underwhelming in comparison to other guards (e.g. he had to share the ball with two other ball dominant guards, whereas other PGs had it in their hands way more).

VV, Beverely, Smart are all-defensive caliber guards who can knock down 3s. If Mitchell turns out like that, he will be a success. It's definitely not a lock that happens.

I just don't see where people are seeing star potential with him.

None of the guys after the top 5 are projected to have star potential. Otherwise they’d be in the top 5 themselves. All of these guys in the mid to late lotto have serious question marks. Apparently nobody saw superstar potential in Donovan Mitchell either who isn’t even 6ft 2 himself.

Bevelerly is his absolute floor. But to suggest he doesn’t have upside with his quickness, ability to shoot off the dribble (something smart not Beverley never showed on college) as well as his work ethic is absurd to me. So many on here obsessed with measurements and age I swear.

[Indeed]

No. How he plays - dont see anything there. Lots of better prospects imo.

Shooting is a concern, and shot creation, but could be a top 10 pick (without the red flag).
Lack of effort and being red flag are the biggest concerns.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

We don't even sniuff at guys who show any lck of effort, not to mention guys with no effort / lack of skill.

You take this guy 20+ and hope for the best. Not at 7 ... way too many better prospects right now

I don't think he will drop to 20, but of course not at 7. He will still be a top 10 pick by those who need a SF.

[OakleyDokely]

That's fine - no one says you have to like him as a prospect or want us to take him. I'm just taking issue with making faulty comparisons to guys like Beverley and Smart, or claiming VanVleet is Mitchell's absolute top end ceiling when Davion's credentials are just as good and he's way more athletic.

Also, there are good reasons why his raw numbers look somewhat underwhelming in comparison to other guards (e.g. he had to share the ball with two other ball dominant guards, whereas other PGs had it in their hands way more).

VV, Beverely, Smart are all-defensive caliber guards who can knock down 3s. If Mitchell turns out like that, he will be a success. It's definitely not a lock that happens.

I just don't see where people are seeing star potential with him.

None of the guys after the top 5 are projected to have star potential. Otherwise they’d be in the top 5 themselves. All of these guys in the mid to late lotto have serious question marks. Apparently nobody saw superstar potential in Donovan Mitchell either who isn’t even 6ft 2 himself.

Bevelerly is his absolute floor. But to suggest he doesn’t have upside with his quickness, ability to shoot off the dribble (something smart not Beverley never showed on college) as well as his work ethic is absurd to me. So many on here obsessed with measurements and age I swear.

Not obssessed with age at all. But I do have higher expectations for 22/23 year old college ballers than 18/19 year old ones.

[Marty_Budda]

VV, Beverely, Smart are all-defensive caliber guards who can knock down 3s. If Mitchell turns out like that, he will be a success. It's definitely not a lock that happens.

I just don't see where people are seeing star potential with him.

None of the guys after the top 5 are projected to have star potential. Otherwise they’d be in the top 5 themselves. All of these guys in the mid to late lotto have serious question marks. Apparently nobody saw superstar potential in Donovan Mitchell either who isn’t even 6ft 2 himself.

Bevelerly is his absolute floor. But to suggest he doesn’t have upside with his quickness, ability to shoot off the dribble (something smart not Beverley never showed on college) as well as his work ethic is absurd to me. So many on here obsessed with measurements and age I swear.

Not obssessed with age at all. But I do have higher expectations for 22/23 year old college ballers than 18/19 year old ones.

He won a national championship as his teams best and most important player. Doesn’t get much better than that dude.

He could’ve averaged 18-20ppg playing in a crap conference for a crap team.