Possible reasons for the Lowry S&T hold up (Powell, WCS from DAL for Dragic)

[douggood]

Just take the extra pieces from Miami and keep Dragic.

There's no extra pieces from Miami coming.
Toronto agreed to the package likely.
If Toronto can't reflip assets, it's not Miami's fault.

I think Dragic enters the traded deadline in a Raptors uniform

i am inclined to believe there is some truth to the rumor that heat will improve the deal (a little bit, very little) if they cant find a destination for dragic.

the reason i think there could be some truth to it, because there is an incompleteness to the reporting, we dont know kyles exact number, no firm reports that its just dragic and achiuwa,

[WuTang_CMB]

Just take the extra pieces from Miami and keep Dragic.

There's no extra pieces from Miami coming.
Toronto agreed to the package likely.
If Toronto can't reflip assets, it's not Miami's fault.

I think Dragic enters the traded deadline in a Raptors uniform

i am inclined to believe there is some truth to the rumor that heat will improve the deal (a little bit, very little) if they cant find a destination for dragic.

the reason i think there could be some truth to it, because there is an incompleteness to the reporting, we dont know kyles exact number, no firm reports that its just dragic and achiuwa,

Precisely.

Options for sign-and-trade
The basics of the Lowry deal have been reported. They are incomplete, possibly on a few fronts.

The first has to do with Lowry’s contract. It was reported as three years, $90 million. While agents sometimes leak rounded-up or even inflated numbers, that exact figure is not possible under the reported terms of the deal. Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa are the outbound pieces, and they make a combined $22.15 million. That allows the Heat to take back a first-year salary of $27.79 million for Lowry, which would let him earn $87.54 million on a three-year deal.

Maybe that’s close enough; $87.54 million to $90 million could be loose language in the reporting chain, and even that amount is far more than we expected Lowry to receive in guaranteed money. My belief remains that the early Lowry-Heat leaks were in part to see if other teams would offer more guarantee in a third year. A sign-and-trade has to be for at least three seasons, only the first of which has to be fully guaranteed. Lowry couldn’t feasibly get a fourth year due to the (convoluted) Over-38 Rule, so the main way of convincing Lowry would have been with the highest guarantee possible on a three-year term.

If Lowry truly is earning $90 million, it would require the Heat to include KZ Okpala, a decent prospect making $1.78 million. The guess here is that the Heat prefer to keep Okpala for inexpensive depth and Lowry is earning slightly less than reported.

It is not yet clear what draft compensation is accompanying Achiuwa to Toronto for facilitating and possibly taking on Dragic’s $19.44 million salary. The Heat can’t trade a first-round pick that conveys sooner than 2025, and even that date would be contingent on an earlier pick they owe to convey by 2023. They also only have a 2022 second-round pick (the worse of Philadelphia or Denver’s pick, so something in the 50s) or their own 2028 second-round pick to deal. Not exactly a massive haul, however it shakes out.

Two questions flow next: Are Achiuwa and some deep future picks enough for the Raptors to have played ball here? And what happens with Dragic?

The second question could inform the first. It was initially presumed Dragic would be routed elsewhere, either via a second trade or expanding the Lowry deal into a three-teamer. Dragic has been open about wanting to play in Dallas, and the Raptors would gladly send him there if it returned assets. A package of Dwight Powell and either Willie Cauley-Stein, Maxi Kleber or Dorian Finney-Smith works for cap math and satisfies the Raptors’ depth concerns at centre, but it leaves the Mavericks quite thin, especially inside. Dallas could conceivably find a fourth team that can throw better-fitting assets Toronto’s way, possibly absorbed to Dallas via trade exception first or for Kleber. The Mavericks have a better-stocked draft-pick cupboard, but their willingness to add Dragic will only go so far in asset terms. Toronto could also look to another team with cap space or that missed on the other point guards.

Basically, the Raptors’ options with Dragic are:

Find a team that wants Dragic and can offer assets more in line with Toronto’s needs and preferences. This sacrifices the cap space the Raptors would have had without Lowry on the books, but maximizing that space always meant also sacrificing Chris Boucher and the midlevel exception, and I’m not sure that player is out there any longer.
Find a team that can take Dragic into space. This limits Toronto’s monetary obligation and keeps its cap sheet more flexible, but it will likely return fewer assets. Dragic at $19.44 million for one year is roughly a neutral asset, so I’m skeptical teams are willing to attach heavy pick or prospect capital for him. (You still try, of course.) New Orleans could be a prime target here, expanding its earlier deal with Memphis to make everything fit in a much larger framework.
Hold Dragic. There would be no reason to buy Dragic out in the short term. Teams only get cap relief for the portion a player gives back, and short of Dragic giving up eight figures to be a free agent, it’s hard to see it being worthwhile. The Raptors could plug Dragic into the rotation as a quality veteran and revisit deals at the trade deadline. This would take the Raptors out of the cap space game too, meaning any remaining additions would come via the midlevel, biannual and minimum exceptions.
The Raptors probably have plans in place for all three paths; there’s just no sense in moving on to Option 3 until you’ve exhausted Options 1 and 2.

[PhilBlackson]

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I’m in support of this deal. I think green & terry are the sweeteners needed to take on Powell’s extra year.

I could live with that too especially if the Heat are also including KZ...

Terry
Green
KZ
Powell
Achuiwa

Basically revamps the bench with younger upside (minus Powell & Achuiwa likely starts). I like the potential of most of those guys minus Powell. While not likely stars, I do think they could all become valuable pieces in future trade packages especially once we develop them more (Achuiwa, Green & Terry in particular). Imo not a bad haul for a guy that was leaving anyways...

[biblast]

Why is everyone assuming the hold up is being caused at the Toronto end. Just as possible to be from Miami or Dallas.

That’s the point!!! We didn’t have to do this S&T if Miami or Dallas is screwing us over! It looks bad on us!!

Here’s the question, are we better off now than letting Lowry walk and use the cap space to address our roster needs ? FA market is now as dry as Tripoli! It’s too late to back out not to mention the PR nightmare with Lowry’s camp! So we may be forced to keep Dragic and I’m almost certain that wasn’t the plan!
Masai worked so hard to have all of these expiring contracts in 2021 for a nice cap space (hello Giannis), I don’t think the goal was to use it on Achuiwa and Dragic!


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Raptors are choosing not to sign anyone so fsr, the trade really isnt holding us up.

If we keep Dragic we have full mle starting at 10.5$
If we reroute Dragic for 0 dollars coming back (impossible at this point looks like) then we have 14 mil cap space. The fair assumption is we will only have the mle and the raptors haven't signed anyone. The trade is not a holdup to signing a free agent.

You are contradicting yourself! The reason why it’s holding us up is we don’t know our cap situation until the S&T is done like you’ve illustrated it!

We don’t know if we’re keeping Dragic or flip him, what salary is coming back our way, etc…which is why we can’t sign any more FAs at this point unless it’s a minimum non guaranteed contract for a scrub but as far as legit FA, we simply can’t at the moment! After GTJ signing, our cap situation is unclear and you can’t sign players based on assumptions! Case in point, we haven’t signed Birch yet even though all signs are that out we will at some point!
But other FA won’t wait around for us to figure out this S&T mess that we are in. They’ll sign elsewhere to secure their bag! NBA FA moves at a lighting speed! You saw how it played out last year with Ibaka and Gasol!

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[Saul Goodman]

Pretty sure it would work with this



To Dallas
Dragic


To Toronto
Powell
Trey Burke
Josh Green
Precious


to Miami
Kyle Lowry
Yuta

[tdotrep2]

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[mademan]

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Think Nurse could do a lot with him. Strong size/athleticism at the SG spot and he's only 20. Precious/Green would be a great return for an unrestricted Lowry

[Mark_83]

Just hold onto Dragic till the deadline if Dallas wants to play hardball. We're short a guard anyway.

[Mark_83]

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Think Nurse could do a lot with him. Strong size/athleticism at the SG spot and he's only 20. Precious/Green would be a great return for an unrestricted Lowry

Could use some time on the 905 to develop that shot.

[Kurtz]

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[God Squad]

Just hold onto Dragic till the deadline if Dallas wants to play hardball. We're short a guard anyway.

Dragic is still very serviceable. People acting like he's a total wash. His only issue would be staying healthy.

[God Squad]

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NM, doesn't sound like there are any plans for him to stay.

[M3tro]

Just hold onto Dragic till the deadline if Dallas wants to play hardball. We're short a guard anyway.

Dragic is still very serviceable. People acting like he's a total wash. His only issue would be staying healthy.

He would probably be our leading scorer.

Definitely the go-to guy down the stretch.

[WuTang_CMB]

I cant wait until Friday. Lets see what Masai pulls out

[Tofubeque]

It is not yet clear what draft compensation is accompanying Achiuwa to Toronto for facilitating and possibly taking on Dragic’s $19.44 million salary. The Heat can’t trade a first-round pick that conveys sooner than 2025, and even that date would be contingent on an earlier pick they owe to convey by 2023. They also only have a 2022 second-round pick (the worse of Philadelphia or Denver’s pick, so something in the 50s) or their own 2028 second-round pick to deal. Not exactly a massive haul, however it shakes out.

Just highlighting this now because you KNOW RealGMers will be freaking out that we didn't get a 1st from any of the next 3 drafts in the deal.

[mademan]

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NM, doesn't sound like there are any plans for him to stay.

He's still a professional. Raps arent gonna do a bad trade to appease some rando player who doesnt even have history with the team

[revvolutions]

If true, I don't blame the Mavs for playing hardball, I can't imagine there's a lot of suitors for Dragic right now at his salary so why bid against yourself?

Because you still need to match salaries to trade something.

That's why it's valuable to have multiple smaller contracts.

Dallas doesn't, so pay up.

[God Squad]

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NM, doesn't sound like there are any plans for him to stay.

He's still a professional. Raps arent gonna do a bad trade to appease some rando player who doesnt even have history with the team

Oh nothing against his character. It was just that another poster mentioned that he wouldn't be opposed to keep Dragic and I agreed, not knowing that he said the above.

[Live Free]

Masai tryna get kristaps

[God Squad]

Masai tryna get kristaps

I'd rather Mavs keep him personally. Just give me
Powell
Josh Green
Tyrell Terry (last years darling)