Harold_and_Kumar wrote:My thoughts are a bit more philosophical than just Barnes vs. Suggs, but it applies pretty well.
I really believe in Bobby and Masai's approach to multi-faceted wings/point forwards with length who play, and want to play good defense. If you believe they also have a strong head on their shoulders to develop, they're naturally going to have a far greater impact on the game than any guard will.
If you're thinking about the top 10 or so players in the NBA, I'd argue only two are guards - Curry and Harden. Curry may be the greatest shooter of all time, and Harden is likely the best ever high usage, efficient scorer of all time. I don't think Suggs has the potential to be a Curry or Harden, and so he's probably going to peak at multiple all-star and never crack a top-10 NBA players list. Which is fine, and will make for a solid pick at 4 or 5.
Alternatively in Barnes you have a big who may be able to dominate a game by breaking down the defense with his passing, offensive rebounding, perimeter defense, shot blocking, and on the fast break - all at 6'9". Essentially, the Raptors are gambling on his ability to make shots at a respectable level. If he can do that you can see him as a better passing Kawhi-lite at his floor. If he's shooting at a Giannis level, even then he's still a productive player that can do multiple things that will contribute to winning, kind of like an Andrei Kirilenko. If he learns to shoot at an above-average level from 3 and people need to guard him from there, he is likely to be a top 5-10 player in the NBA at some point in his career, with everything else he brings.
Personally, I think Suggs is the riskier pick because he has a lower ceiling, and I'd argue a lower floor as well. He's just closer to his prime floor right now than Barnes is. I see Suggs having a Kemba-like career arc where he starts his career more NBA-ready, but plateaus quicker and sustains, whereas I see Barnes taking longer to ascend, but having a much higher peak, much like Giannis or Kawhi.
"Quantity has a quality all its own"
You can substitute 'quantity' with 'measurements' in this quote. There's a reason every FO is obsessed with them.
This era requires every player to cover the entirety of the floor on both ends in order to play optimally. There's a goldilocks zone of player types who can actually do it at all, and a few freaks like AD who can do it outside of that zone (as a center).
Every other player type brings with them costs that they have to overcome with a higher skill ceiling. Contrast that with Barnes, who already comes with a pretty good skill floor (ok handles and playmaking), who simply needs to add less to dramatically increase his ceiling and impact on the modern game.
If you're worried that Suggs tops out as some mix of a smaller Jrue Holiday and something else (a quasi all star), then there is clear value in going for goldilocks who has that higher ceiling potential.
We the Champs...
