2023 Draft Discussion Part III

[dozo]

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Smart decision.

[Kevin Willis]

I'm mad at Hawkins for raising his stock. Was praying he'd be available in our range.

Hawkins definitely still in range, and likely be there 20ish. How high do you have Hawkins going?

I don't see the best shooter in the draft going in the late teens or early 20's.

I think he goes in the 9-12 range.

I hope that happens so we can get Dick.

[720]

Anyways, risk taking doesn't mean good or bad.

You can take risks and overachieve, you can take risks and underachieve. You can play it safe and overachieve, you can play it safe and underachieve.

Generally, Raps management isn't swayed by public opinion. They like who they like and they take who they like and they aren't worried about public backsplash, as the recent Barnes pick and Poeltl trade suggest.

Risk is the wrong word in this scenario too.

They clearly have a type that they like. That doesn’t mean it’s a safe or risky pick. Just a type.

Risk is probably the wrong word, I just mean, if you go against consensus, there could be a price to pay, at least initially.

If the Hornets get #1 and take Scoot, there's risk to that, even if the Hornets think Scoot is the best prospect. It would take a lot confidence to do that.

I think Zach Lowe mentioned on his podcast one time, an exec once told him that GM's are just trying to keep their job most of the time, and if you go with the popular, consensus pick, you can easily rationalize that to the people above you. But if you go against consensus and that move fails, you're in big trouble.

You don’t lose your job if you pick away from the consensus with the 27th pick. Your hornets scenario makes more sense.

[OakleyDokely]

Risk is the wrong word in this scenario too.

They clearly have a type that they like. That doesn’t mean it’s a safe or risky pick. Just a type.

Risk is probably the wrong word, I just mean, if you go against consensus, there could be a price to pay, at least initially.

If the Hornets get #1 and take Scoot, there's risk to that, even if the Hornets think Scoot is the best prospect. It would take a lot confidence to do that.

I think Zach Lowe mentioned on his podcast one time, an exec once told him that GM's are just trying to keep their job most of the time, and if you go with the popular, consensus pick, you can easily rationalize that to the people above you. But if you go against consensus and that move fails, you're in big trouble.

You don’t lose your job if you pick away from the consensus with the 27th pick. Your hornets scenario makes more sense.

I never said you'd lose your job over the 27th pick, just that Siakam wasn't the consensus pick at that spot.

[Reeko]

Ah yes, joining other NBA stars from the WAC who won POTY such as Martex Harrison, Daniel Mullings, Kyle Barone, Deonte Burton... need I continue?

Don't do that. Other notable WAC POTY include:
Danny Ainge
Tim Hardaway
Keith Van Horn
Andre Miller

And a few other decent pros.

Not a good sign you gotta go back to the 20th century to fin danother one

Ok, it's not the ACC but it's still produced some very good NBA players in the past.

[OakleyDokely]

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[DG88]

I think we need to put together common themes in the Raptors drafting process to gauge who would meet the criteria that they covet.

Physical themes:
Athleticism
Size
Length

Character themes:
Winning mentality
Team oriented
Hard worker

Stat themes:
This is where I need the forum to help me out. Since Masai came onboard what are the common stats we should be looking for?

BPM> 8. Scottie was 7.9, but all the other FRP Raptors were > 8. DBPM > 2.5.

Dan Tolzman spoke about rebounding for position as an indicator of competitiveness.

Thanks for this! Need to start putting a profile together of the prospects in the draft who would match these themes the best.

[JShuttlesworth]

I still think that Hawkins could be available in our range, assuming we're drafting somewhere around 14'ish (give or take).

I don't necessarily think he's going to get selected in the Top 10

He and Cason Wallace are my two favourites for us in our range right now

[Dalek]

I'm not even that big on offensive efficiency in the NBA, but when you have poor efficiency in college and poor defensive BPM that seems like a rough combo.

I actually think you can throw out offensive efficiency in some cases. I mean, if you have low usage and low volume shots and the efficiency is not great, I would worry. My thing with college is that guys often have outsized roles that look bad at first glance.

Anthony Edwards had a 0.5 DBPM and shot 29% from three on 294 shots. He was a straight chucker, but he has developed into a good shooter and an underrated defender. Obviously he is a freak athlete that was hard to ignore.

Jaden Ivey had a 1 DBPM shot worse than George and made less threes and he was a sophomore in his draft year. His skill was his blazing speed on ball, but he was nothing special in college other than scoring at the rim yet he was high lottery. I honestly think he went so high because people did not want to miss out on the next Ja Morant. Ja Morant himself had a DBPM under 2.

You could always end up with a Cam Thomas type, who was inefficient in college and a negative defender, but he has shown flashes as a scorer in the NBA. He had a month in February where he peaked at 24 PPG and he is still only 21YO. Cole Anthony also had a very similar freshman year.

Keyonte George is 19 and while he has been inefficient, you figure his role will be dialed back a bit in the NBA. Also Baylor had poor defense overall, so I am not surprised about George's defensive numbers. Going a bit by eye test, he looks like he can compete on defense. Maybe there is no outlier physical trait or skill, but in that late lotto range he is worth it because looking at him, he looks like a guy who can go off for 30 points given his shooting mechanics and body control at the rim.

[ArthurVandelay]

Hawkins definitely still in range, and likely be there 20ish. How high do you have Hawkins going?

He’s going lottery.

How high will depend on his wingspan - lol

But lottery imo

probably not

Yeah, you’re right. I read quickly on my phone and saw “Hendricks”

So yeah, Hawkins I don’t think goes lottery. Hendricks is a given.

[S.W.A.N]

we are desperate for guard depth. if we miss out on wallace, i'd be ok with colby jones right now. ideally we trade back for him. slithery in the p and r

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Colby Jones and Hawkins are two guys that I'd be happy to see get drafted. Look like high floor players.

George and Howard scare me, but they also fit the high upside shooter/scorer type that we need.

[WuTang_CMB]

NY can scoop Dallas pick if it doesn't fall top 10. Dallas has gone 3-7 in their last 10 and sit 11th in west lol yikes.

I've accepted we aren't getting Cason / Hendricks. We likely sit 14-16 in draft range. We aren't going with a big so its guard or wing ... my guess guard play since we are so depleted.

[S.W.A.N]

I think we need to put together common themes in the Raptors drafting process to gauge who would meet the criteria that they covet.

Physical themes:
Athleticism
Size
Length

Character themes:
Winning mentality
Team oriented
Hard worker

Stat themes:
This is where I need the forum to help me out. Since Masai came onboard what are the common stats we should be looking for?

BPM> 8. Scottie was 7.9, but all the other FRP Raptors were > 8. DBPM > 2.5.

Dan Tolzman spoke about rebounding for position as an indicator of competitiveness.

Thanks for this! Need to start putting a profile together of the prospects in the draft who would match these themes the best.

I'd say BPM will be a lower emphasis this year compared to advanced shooting numbers. I think we are having a shift in philosophy now that we going back to using a traditional C.

I'd use projected NBA 3point % as an indicator.

[YogurtProducer]

Don't do that. Other notable WAC POTY include:
Danny Ainge
Tim Hardaway
Keith Van Horn
Andre Miller

And a few other decent pros.

Not a good sign you gotta go back to the 20th century to fin danother one

Ok, it's not the ACC but it's still produced some very good NBA players in the past.

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Western-Athletic-Conference/13/nba-players

There is currently 5 of them.

Point being - being player of the year in the WAC doesn’t mean much for nba prospects

[Reeko]

Not a good sign you gotta go back to the 20th century to fin danother one

Ok, it's not the ACC but it's still produced some very good NBA players in the past.

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Western-Athletic-Conference/13/nba-players

There is currently 5 of them.

Point being - being player of the year in the WAC doesn’t mean much for nba prospects

I don't think that being a college conference player of the year means much in general, regardless. It shouldn't generally be used as a predictor of future success at the NBA level.

[Dalek]

Ok, it's not the ACC but it's still produced some very good NBA players in the past.

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Western-Athletic-Conference/13/nba-players

There is currently 5 of them.

Point being - being player of the year in the WAC doesn’t mean much for nba prospects

I don't think that being a college conference player of the year means much in general, regardless. It shouldn't generally be used as a predictor of future success at the NBA level.

I don't know why people are still on this topic. Siakam was not drafted because of his WAC stats or performance. He got invited
to workout against Poeltl and Skal and the Raps instead put him against some weaker prospects and he proceeded to dominate the workout. See the JJ Reddick interview:

Watch on YouTube

;t=79s

Raps FO were probably shocked as anyone that this guy who was supposed to be a priest, playing in a weak mid major was suddenly dominating his workout. He worked out for 20 teams and was a projected second rounder. He was a workout marvel.

[Yallbecrazy]

https://basketball.realgm.com/ncaa/conferences/Western-Athletic-Conference/13/nba-players

There is currently 5 of them.

Point being - being player of the year in the WAC doesn’t mean much for nba prospects

I don't think that being a college conference player of the year means much in general, regardless. It shouldn't generally be used as a predictor of future success at the NBA level.

I don't know why people are still on this topic. Siakam was not drafted because of his WAC stats or performance. He got invited
to workout against Poeltl and Skal and the Raps instead put him against some weaker prospects and he proceeded to dominate the workout. See the JJ Reddick interview:

Watch on YouTube

;t=79s

Raps FO were probably shocked as anyone that this guy who was supposed to be a priest, playing in a weak mid major was suddenly dominating his workout. He worked out for 20 teams and was a projected second rounder. He was a workout marvel.

That probably helped, but the guy did put up monster stats albeit against very weak competition and showed a lot of progression from year 1 to year 2.

[WuTang_CMB]

I don't think that being a college conference player of the year means much in general, regardless. It shouldn't generally be used as a predictor of future success at the NBA level.

I don't know why people are still on this topic. Siakam was not drafted because of his WAC stats or performance. He got invited
to workout against Poeltl and Skal and the Raps instead put him against some weaker prospects and he proceeded to dominate the workout. See the JJ Reddick interview:

Watch on YouTube

;t=79s

Raps FO were probably shocked as anyone that this guy who was supposed to be a priest, playing in a weak mid major was suddenly dominating his workout. He worked out for 20 teams and was a projected second rounder. He was a workout marvel.

That probably helped, but the guy did put up monster stats albeit against very weak competition and showed a lot of progression from year 1 to year 2.

They were tracking PS since BWOB. They already knew all about him before that workout in Buffalo. As Masai said, the scouts wanted him really bad that year.

[Dalek]

I don't think that being a college conference player of the year means much in general, regardless. It shouldn't generally be used as a predictor of future success at the NBA level.

I don't know why people are still on this topic. Siakam was not drafted because of his WAC stats or performance. He got invited
to workout against Poeltl and Skal and the Raps instead put him against some weaker prospects and he proceeded to dominate the workout. See the JJ Reddick interview:

Watch on YouTube

;t=79s

Raps FO were probably shocked as anyone that this guy who was supposed to be a priest, playing in a weak mid major was suddenly dominating his workout. He worked out for 20 teams and was a projected second rounder. He was a workout marvel.

That probably helped, but the guy did put up monster stats albeit against very weak competition and showed a lot of progression from year 1 to year 2.

Same could be said with Fred VanVleet and his improvement at Wichita State. He got a summer league tryout and won the management over. To me, Toronto is a 'prove it to me' type of draft/development philosophy. They want to see guys up close show they want to be here and win.

[BoyzNTheHood]

I’m not enamoured by him, but DaRon Holmes is a guy I can see our FO considering