2023 Draft Discussion Part 5

[Dalek]

I'm really not sure what you are trying to do here. He clearly has rankings that are very different from other scouts and some of those will be wrong and some will be right (and he's more right than wrong relatively), but the two examples you picked to say he was wrong was one where he was very right and another which was over a year before the draft where everyone's rankings are terrible. He actually had JA much higher than anyone else at that stage.

He has a ton of bad takes over the years and a few good ones. He just bugs me because he can be outright dismissive of players if he can't find numbers he likes. He almost solely relies on size and age and shooting numbers of past prospects to determine predictability of prospects. Often outright leaving out the eye test and high school rankings.

This year, the Thompson twins are not draftable for him because he doesn't think it is fair to evaluate these 20 YOs in their league. Nick Smith is also terrible in his eyes while Jaime Jaquez is within the top 10. It maybe early draftboards but those takes often inform a lot of opinions here for months.

I do think there are many new pathways for players and they often don't treat college or other leagues like OTE other than training steps for the NBA. Also systems and players around them, injuries and parity in leagues influence their situation and can mean they don't hit is number thresholds.

Nick Smith did put up horrendous numbers in college and he looked awful. He compared Smith to players he's been compared with like Maxey, Poole and Herro and it's not pretty. I don't think Dean ruled out the possibility of him being as good as them, just that it's not really a player you should be taking with a 1st round pick because he's just not very good at basketball at this point in his career. A taller Lou Williams isn't a terrible comparison.

Amen and Ausar do have tons of questions about their level of competition. Dude, they are 20 years old playing high school kids in a TERRIBLE league. That's not to say they can't be very good but it's definitely something to be considered.

In regards to Jaquez, he's quite realistic about what kind of player he can become. He's not saying he has tons of upside but he thinks that his floor is pretty high and he can play basketball at a high level as opposed to some guys in the lottery who at this point, stink at basketball.

Obviously NSJ didn't play as well as he did in highschool and the int. tournament they played before the college season. He got hurt and the injuries played a factor, and playing so few games and in a more offball role were also factors. If you are of the mind to not draft Maxey/Poole/Herro with a first, then I just disagree. Those are starter level players who are all under 25 and averaging over 20 PPG on playoff teams. To me, is obvious talent there and they are still not even at their physical peak.

Jaquez is a nice player you maybe draft a with a late first or early second. He likely ends up an ok bench guy, but the lottery is not about being safe. It is about drafting high potential players you can develop into starters/all-stars, not finished products with limited upside. For him to slot Jaquez top ten is just a weird take, especially for a guy who can't even shoot threes.

[WuTang_CMB]

Cason Wallace gives me backup PG vibes. I would feel much better about him if he could shoot.

I agree and I'm also starting to wonder if Bilal is going to be a starter in the league. Have huge questions about him after I was super high on him last month.

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The tools and upside are there. He likely needs a full year in the g league at least. Not sure Masai will go that route though. Still think we targeting guard play with Scoot if we trade up or Bufkin.

[youreachiteach]

He has a lot of biases about the physicality of prospects. Basically, if you're not NBA man weight you better be elite at something to be drafted. It's also true he favours players that have a strict use. What he is saying is not that shooters are not useful or better than expected but rather they end up being too expensive even if they turn out because of their defensive limitations. And the numbers don't bear Nick Smith out to be as good as they are anyway).

He's not drafting anyone who doesn't have a defensive position (He's of the opinion that you are who you can guard).

Not to say his comparisons are unfair, but the expecations behind them are definitely skewed. Taken with a grain of salt they are well-produced.

[WuTang_CMB]

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[BoyzNTheHood]

Taylor Hendricks

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Bartovik has him at 65% for “at the rim” finishes. All that matters are the overall numbers, not whether you hit layups less often than dunks.

But what if he dunks more in transition than in half-court. Transitioning finishing would then bias the at rim stat.

There are plenty of factors that could skew the stats and I won’t argue that he needs to work on finishing his layups. But I’m mostly worried about the overall numbers. If my guy is finishing at 65% I’m not going to complain. To me that’s like saying Steph shoots standstill 3’s much better than one’s off the dribble. At the end of the day we’re happy with his 40% shooting. The same goes for Taylor and his 65% at the rim, in my opinion.

[BoyzNTheHood]

He has a ton of bad takes over the years and a few good ones. He just bugs me because he can be outright dismissive of players if he can't find numbers he likes. He almost solely relies on size and age and shooting numbers of past prospects to determine predictability of prospects. Often outright leaving out the eye test and high school rankings.

This year, the Thompson twins are not draftable for him because he doesn't think it is fair to evaluate these 20 YOs in their league. Nick Smith is also terrible in his eyes while Jaime Jaquez is within the top 10. It maybe early draftboards but those takes often inform a lot of opinions here for months.

I do think there are many new pathways for players and they often don't treat college or other leagues like OTE other than training steps for the NBA. Also systems and players around them, injuries and parity in leagues influence their situation and can mean they don't hit is number thresholds.

Nick Smith did put up horrendous numbers in college and he looked awful. He compared Smith to players he's been compared with like Maxey, Poole and Herro and it's not pretty. I don't think Dean ruled out the possibility of him being as good as them, just that it's not really a player you should be taking with a 1st round pick because he's just not very good at basketball at this point in his career. A taller Lou Williams isn't a terrible comparison.

Amen and Ausar do have tons of questions about their level of competition. Dude, they are 20 years old playing high school kids in a TERRIBLE league. That's not to say they can't be very good but it's definitely something to be considered.

In regards to Jaquez, he's quite realistic about what kind of player he can become. He's not saying he has tons of upside but he thinks that his floor is pretty high and he can play basketball at a high level as opposed to some guys in the lottery who at this point, stink at basketball.

Obviously NSJ didn't play as well as he did in highschool and the int. tournament they played before the college season. He got hurt and the injuries played a factor, and playing so few games and in a more offball role were also factors. If you are of the mind to not draft Maxey/Poole/Herro with a first, then I just disagree. Those are starter level players who are all under 25 and averaging over 20 PPG on playoff teams. To me, is obvious talent there and they are still not even at their physical peak.

Jaquez is a nice player you maybe draft a with a late first or early second. He likely ends up an ok bench guy, but the lottery is not about being safe. It is about drafting high potential players you can develop into starters/all-stars, not finished products with limited upside. For him to slot Jaquez top ten is just a weird take, especially for a guy who can't even shoot threes.

Jaquez is my Jimmy Butler comparison so I’m extremely high on him. I’m thinking Dean is on the same train of thought. He’s being severely underrated.

[PhilBlackson]

Cason Wallace gives me backup PG vibes. I would feel much better about him if he could shoot.

I agree and I'm also starting to wonder if Bilal is going to be a starter in the league. Have huge questions about him after I was super high on him last month.

Sent from my LG-H873 using RealGM mobile app

The tools and upside are there. He likely needs a full year in the g league at least. Not sure Masai will go that route though. Still think we targeting guard play with Scoot if we trade up or Bufkin.

If we do in fact get Scoot, I think Hawkins should jump to the top of the list because a movement shooter would be far more beneficial imo than another player that needs the ball in their hands to be most effective and to obviously space the floor for Scoot & Scottie. Not to mention Scoot is an excellent cutter, have teams running in circles for Hawkins, it could be a lay up line/red carpet for dunks.

[God Squad]

Don't think Bufkin or Alexander can run the point other than just basic bring the ball up and handoffs.

Who would you rather instead NSJ or JHS?

Neither. But if I had to, I'd gamble on NSJ speed and handle with the ball.

[WuTang_CMB]

I agree and I'm also starting to wonder if Bilal is going to be a starter in the league. Have huge questions about him after I was super high on him last month.

Sent from my LG-H873 using RealGM mobile app

The tools and upside are there. He likely needs a full year in the g league at least. Not sure Masai will go that route though. Still think we targeting guard play with Scoot if we trade up or Bufkin.

If we do in fact get Scoot, I think Hawkins should jump to the top of the list because a movement shooter would be far more beneficial imo than another player that needs the ball in their hands to be most effective and to obviously space the floor for Scoot & Scottie. Not to mention Scoot is an excellent cutter, have teams running in circles for Hawkins, it could be a lay up line/red carpet for dunks.

With a real offensive system incl. Scottie, team will look dramatically different.

[BoyzNTheHood]

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[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

He has a ton of bad takes over the years and a few good ones. He just bugs me because he can be outright dismissive of players if he can't find numbers he likes. He almost solely relies on size and age and shooting numbers of past prospects to determine predictability of prospects. Often outright leaving out the eye test and high school rankings.

This year, the Thompson twins are not draftable for him because he doesn't think it is fair to evaluate these 20 YOs in their league. Nick Smith is also terrible in his eyes while Jaime Jaquez is within the top 10. It maybe early draftboards but those takes often inform a lot of opinions here for months.

I do think there are many new pathways for players and they often don't treat college or other leagues like OTE other than training steps for the NBA. Also systems and players around them, injuries and parity in leagues influence their situation and can mean they don't hit is number thresholds.

Nick Smith did put up horrendous numbers in college and he looked awful. He compared Smith to players he's been compared with like Maxey, Poole and Herro and it's not pretty. I don't think Dean ruled out the possibility of him being as good as them, just that it's not really a player you should be taking with a 1st round pick because he's just not very good at basketball at this point in his career. A taller Lou Williams isn't a terrible comparison.

Amen and Ausar do have tons of questions about their level of competition. Dude, they are 20 years old playing high school kids in a TERRIBLE league. That's not to say they can't be very good but it's definitely something to be considered.

In regards to Jaquez, he's quite realistic about what kind of player he can become. He's not saying he has tons of upside but he thinks that his floor is pretty high and he can play basketball at a high level as opposed to some guys in the lottery who at this point, stink at basketball.

Obviously NSJ didn't play as well as he did in highschool and the int. tournament they played before the college season. He got hurt and the injuries played a factor, and playing so few games and in a more offball role were also factors. If you are of the mind to not draft Maxey/Poole/Herro with a first, then I just disagree. Those are starter level players who are all under 25 and averaging over 20 PPG on playoff teams. To me, is obvious talent there and they are still not even at their physical peak.

Jaquez is a nice player you maybe draft a with a late first or early second. He likely ends up an ok bench guy, but the lottery is not about being safe. It is about drafting high potential players you can develop into starters/all-stars, not finished products with limited upside. For him to slot Jaquez top ten is just a weird take, especially for a guy who can't even shoot threes.

I think his argument is that because he shot 39.4% from college 3 one year (...on 2.9 att) that he would rather take Jaquez given his rebounding, defense and positive AST/TO ratio and just hope that the shooting can hit 39% from deep in the NBA eventually over a guy who can shoot high %ages but who hasn't shown any impact in the areas Jaquez can fill up the stat sheet.

That said I think Jacquez can max out as a rotation piece.

[Spates]

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Context matters.

Last year Steph had a 38.1 3pt%. This year OG shot 38.7 from 3. Similar percentages but vastly different gravity. Depending on how Hendricks is used his non dunk at rim % could be very meaningful. Floor spacer vs playing down low. Important distinctions worthy of note but not necessarily a deal breaker. Stats are generated from specific contexts so a more granular approach is warranted.

[Dalek]

Jaquez is my Jimmy Butler comparison so I’m extremely high on him. I’m thinking Dean is on the same train of thought. He’s being severely underrated.

I like him, but he is kind of slow and not a great shooter. Jimmy is a tough model to follow. He is like 6'7ish and 230+ lbs, but fairly mobile but not a huge leaper. His shotfakes, and grifting skill make Jimmy pretty hard to find a comparable.

If I were to guess who could do Jimmy type things, it would be Brice Sensabaugh. Dude gets to his spots, shoots cleanly with hands in his face, can foul hunt on shots very innately, and he has some ability to playmake like Jimmy. The defense is not Jimmy level, but Brice is young enough to learn and become solid enough. Weight is my main issue with Brice. Not sure if he will keep the weight off once he hits the NBA late night lifestyle.

[Dalek]

Nick Smith did put up horrendous numbers in college and he looked awful. He compared Smith to players he's been compared with like Maxey, Poole and Herro and it's not pretty. I don't think Dean ruled out the possibility of him being as good as them, just that it's not really a player you should be taking with a 1st round pick because he's just not very good at basketball at this point in his career. A taller Lou Williams isn't a terrible comparison.

Amen and Ausar do have tons of questions about their level of competition. Dude, they are 20 years old playing high school kids in a TERRIBLE league. That's not to say they can't be very good but it's definitely something to be considered.

In regards to Jaquez, he's quite realistic about what kind of player he can become. He's not saying he has tons of upside but he thinks that his floor is pretty high and he can play basketball at a high level as opposed to some guys in the lottery who at this point, stink at basketball.

Obviously NSJ didn't play as well as he did in highschool and the int. tournament they played before the college season. He got hurt and the injuries played a factor, and playing so few games and in a more offball role were also factors. If you are of the mind to not draft Maxey/Poole/Herro with a first, then I just disagree. Those are starter level players who are all under 25 and averaging over 20 PPG on playoff teams. To me, is obvious talent there and they are still not even at their physical peak.

Jaquez is a nice player you maybe draft a with a late first or early second. He likely ends up an ok bench guy, but the lottery is not about being safe. It is about drafting high potential players you can develop into starters/all-stars, not finished products with limited upside. For him to slot Jaquez top ten is just a weird take, especially for a guy who can't even shoot threes.

I think his argument is that because he shot 39.4% from college 3 one year (...on 2.9 att) that he would rather take Jaquez given his rebounding, defense and positive AST/TO ratio and just hope that the shooting can hit 39% from deep in the NBA eventually over a guy who can shoot high %ages but who hasn't shown any impact in the areas Jaquez can fill up the stat sheet.

Fair enough, if you look at his second year stats. To me, he is a four year college guy who averaged 33% from three and regressed to 31% this year. I do see all the toolsy things he brings and I am pulling for him because I can't think of any other Mexican-American NBA players. He is a very cool story and I hope he succeeds.

That said I think Jacquez can max out as a rotation piece.

[BoyzNTheHood]

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Context matters.

Last year Steph had a 38.1 3pt%. This year OG shot 38.7 from 3. Similar percentages but vastly different gravity. Depending on how Hendricks is used his non dunk at rim % could be very meaningful. Floor spacer vs playing down low. Important distinctions worthy of note but not necessarily a deal breaker. Stats are generated from specific contexts so a more granular approach is warranted.

It sounds like you're saying they're not both #1 options who get the majority of the attention from the opposing defense. I'm uncertain of where to get the numbers on Wemby, but Hendricks is used all over the floor, and from the handful of game I've seen of Wemby he's the same way.

[Dalek]

Not sure if this has been posted, but I actually put a lot fair bit into how players present themselves in the media and these "Through the Wire" guys get these prospects to open up a bit:

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The Thompson twins are way more outgoing and engaging than I thought they would be. Got to remember these guys were homeschooled for years, so they aren't the most socially developed, but I think the OTE people got them media training.

Cam Whitmore seems like he is in love with himself.

Good to see Taylor Hendricks in this way. I don't really have a feel for him personality wise, but it is cool that he idolizes Anthony Davis.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Jaquez is my Jimmy Butler comparison so I’m extremely high on him. I’m thinking Dean is on the same train of thought. He’s being severely underrated.

I like him, but he is kind of slow and not a great shooter. Jimmy is a tough model to follow. He is like 6'7ish and 230+ lbs, but fairly mobile but not a huge leaper. His shotfakes, and grifting skill make Jimmy pretty hard to find a comparable.

If I were to guess who could do Jimmy type things, it would be Brice Sensabaugh. Dude gets to his spots, shoots cleanly with hands in his face, can foul hunt on shots very innately, and he has some ability to playmake like Jimmy. The defense is not Jimmy level, but Brice is young enough to learn and become solid enough. Weight is my main issue with Brice. Not sure if he will keep the weight off once he hits the NBA late night lifestyle.

I wouldn't make the comparison between Jimmy and Brice. Jimmy is more of a slasher like Jaime, while Brice is more of a jump shooter like DeMar was. Defense is also a huge thing to overlook. It's an effort thing, and Brice doesn't care for it. Jaime is all effort, just like Jimmy. Both guys who prefer to take the ball to the hoop, play hard, and hit the occasional 3 when the team needs it.

[Spates]

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Context matters.

Last year Steph had a 38.1 3pt%. This year OG shot 38.7 from 3. Similar percentages but vastly different gravity. Depending on how Hendricks is used his non dunk at rim % could be very meaningful. Floor spacer vs playing down low. Important distinctions worthy of note but not necessarily a deal breaker. Stats are generated from specific contexts so a more granular approach is warranted.

It sounds like you're saying they're not both #1 options who get the majority of the attention from the opposing defense. I'm uncertain of where to get the numbers on Wemby, but Hendricks is used all over the floor, and from the handful of game I've seen of Wemby he's the same way.

My point is numbers don't tell the whole story in isolation. All stats should be investigated. If you expect someone to finish well at the rim you should examine the possessions for the differences between the high overall rim finishing and low layup finishing. Could be nothing, could be a red flag....

[Spates]

Jaquez is my Jimmy Butler comparison so I’m extremely high on him. I’m thinking Dean is on the same train of thought. He’s being severely underrated.

I like him, but he is kind of slow and not a great shooter. Jimmy is a tough model to follow. He is like 6'7ish and 230+ lbs, but fairly mobile but not a huge leaper. His shotfakes, and grifting skill make Jimmy pretty hard to find a comparable.

If I were to guess who could do Jimmy type things, it would be Brice Sensabaugh. Dude gets to his spots, shoots cleanly with hands in his face, can foul hunt on shots very innately, and he has some ability to playmake like Jimmy. The defense is not Jimmy level, but Brice is young enough to learn and become solid enough. Weight is my main issue with Brice. Not sure if he will keep the weight off once he hits the NBA late night lifestyle.

I wouldn't make the comparison between Jimmy and Brice. Jimmy is more of a slasher like Jaime, while Brice is more of a jump shooter like DeMar was. Defense is also a huge thing to overlook. It's an effort thing, and Brice doesn't care for it. Jaime is all effort, just like Jimmy. Both guys who prefer to take the ball to the hoop, play hard, and hit the occasional 3 when the team needs it.

I thought i was seeing a lot of Jimmy in Jaime too. I dismissed it because of recency bias but I kind really like Jaime. The way he uses pumps and fakes feels similar and there's a more methodical way of getting to his spots. I've only seen highlights but if I knew more about his ability to create for others, his inclination to pick up his pace, and his defense I might go numb and want him at 13.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Context matters.

Last year Steph had a 38.1 3pt%. This year OG shot 38.7 from 3. Similar percentages but vastly different gravity. Depending on how Hendricks is used his non dunk at rim % could be very meaningful. Floor spacer vs playing down low. Important distinctions worthy of note but not necessarily a deal breaker. Stats are generated from specific contexts so a more granular approach is warranted.

It sounds like you're saying they're not both #1 options who get the majority of the attention from the opposing defense. I'm uncertain of where to get the numbers on Wemby, but Hendricks is used all over the floor, and from the handful of game I've seen of Wemby he's the same way.

My point is numbers don't tell the whole story in isolation. All stats should be investigated. If you expect someone to finish well at the rim you should examine the possessions for the differences between the high overall rim finishing and low layup finishing. Could be nothing, could be a red flag....

Fair enough. I think it's nothing as I've said before. Both guys have shown their abilities throughout the whole season. Barlowe posting that as a gotcha tweet is irresponsible in my opinion, but he's in the clickbait business at the end of the day.