2023 Draft Discussion Part 5

[BoyzNTheHood]

I like him, but he is kind of slow and not a great shooter. Jimmy is a tough model to follow. He is like 6'7ish and 230+ lbs, but fairly mobile but not a huge leaper. His shotfakes, and grifting skill make Jimmy pretty hard to find a comparable.

If I were to guess who could do Jimmy type things, it would be Brice Sensabaugh. Dude gets to his spots, shoots cleanly with hands in his face, can foul hunt on shots very innately, and he has some ability to playmake like Jimmy. The defense is not Jimmy level, but Brice is young enough to learn and become solid enough. Weight is my main issue with Brice. Not sure if he will keep the weight off once he hits the NBA late night lifestyle.

I wouldn't make the comparison between Jimmy and Brice. Jimmy is more of a slasher like Jaime, while Brice is more of a jump shooter like DeMar was. Defense is also a huge thing to overlook. It's an effort thing, and Brice doesn't care for it. Jaime is all effort, just like Jimmy. Both guys who prefer to take the ball to the hoop, play hard, and hit the occasional 3 when the team needs it.

I thought i was seeing a lot of Jimmy in Jaime too. I dismissed it because of recency bias but I kind really like Jaime. The way he uses pumps and fakes feels similar and there's a more methodical way of getting to his spots. I've only seen highlights but if I knew more about his ability to create for others, his inclination to pick up his pace, and his defense I might go numb and want him at 13.

Jaime is our hot take for this draft. I'd agree that he will provide lottery value once it's said and done, but if I'm looking to take him I'd definitely trade back.

[Jcity08]

I still have my eye on Jett Howard, even though he cooled down in the draft rankings and has poor athleticism & **** defense. If we get a late 1st pick, I wouldnt mind taking a flyer on him.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Sensabaugh is like an Anfernee Simons type player to me, all offense and no defense so I can't be bothered to put him higher than guys with two way ability or at least moderate defensive ability with that kind of offensive talent.

Can easily see him putting up big numbers on offense and deceiving people about his real worth.

[ItsDanger]

I think Jacquez game is more like a PF's game. I wouldn't mind making the bench with guys like this. They know how to win.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I think the takeaway is that you should really look at who the 10th best player in a draft looks like first. We had this conversation earlier re: Thabo. Of course you don't want to draft Thabo 10th overall, but in reality Thabo is around the 10th best player in most drafts.

I think the idea of the lottery really spoiled fans, myself included. We think it means something, but there's like 50% chance of an all-star with the top 5 (and really swayed to top 3), and then precipitous drop-offs. If someone thinks Jaime is the 10th best player in this draft, I'm not going to argue against that claim too much. It's plausible. He does so many things well. He could also just be a total bust as an older NCAA player likely drafted late. He won't get 9 lives like a lotto pick would. I do think there are many arguments against a lot of these top high school recruits or generally unproductive but talented players. There just aren't that many that break through in the NBA, and even if it's 1 per draft, I would find it challenging to determine which 1.

[Psubs]

I like him, but he is kind of slow and not a great shooter. Jimmy is a tough model to follow. He is like 6'7ish and 230+ lbs, but fairly mobile but not a huge leaper. His shotfakes, and grifting skill make Jimmy pretty hard to find a comparable.

If I were to guess who could do Jimmy type things, it would be Brice Sensabaugh. Dude gets to his spots, shoots cleanly with hands in his face, can foul hunt on shots very innately, and he has some ability to playmake like Jimmy. The defense is not Jimmy level, but Brice is young enough to learn and become solid enough. Weight is my main issue with Brice. Not sure if he will keep the weight off once he hits the NBA late night lifestyle.

I wouldn't make the comparison between Jimmy and Brice. Jimmy is more of a slasher like Jaime, while Brice is more of a jump shooter like DeMar was. Defense is also a huge thing to overlook. It's an effort thing, and Brice doesn't care for it. Jaime is all effort, just like Jimmy. Both guys who prefer to take the ball to the hoop, play hard, and hit the occasional 3 when the team needs it.

I thought i was seeing a lot of Jimmy in Jaime too. I dismissed it because of recency bias but I kind really like Jaime. The way he uses pumps and fakes feels similar and there's a more methodical way of getting to his spots. I've only seen highlights but if I knew more about his ability to create for others, his inclination to pick up his pace, and his defense I might go numb and want him at 13.

I think that Cissoko's size/strength and skillset and as diverse as Jimmy Butler. Also has 2 more years to get stronger (I think could also lose 5 lbs from gaining weight of his new body).

[ArthurVandelay]

I like him, but he is kind of slow and not a great shooter. Jimmy is a tough model to follow. He is like 6'7ish and 230+ lbs, but fairly mobile but not a huge leaper. His shotfakes, and grifting skill make Jimmy pretty hard to find a comparable.

If I were to guess who could do Jimmy type things, it would be Brice Sensabaugh. Dude gets to his spots, shoots cleanly with hands in his face, can foul hunt on shots very innately, and he has some ability to playmake like Jimmy. The defense is not Jimmy level, but Brice is young enough to learn and become solid enough. Weight is my main issue with Brice. Not sure if he will keep the weight off once he hits the NBA late night lifestyle.

I wouldn't make the comparison between Jimmy and Brice. Jimmy is more of a slasher like Jaime, while Brice is more of a jump shooter like DeMar was. Defense is also a huge thing to overlook. It's an effort thing, and Brice doesn't care for it. Jaime is all effort, just like Jimmy. Both guys who prefer to take the ball to the hoop, play hard, and hit the occasional 3 when the team needs it.

I thought i was seeing a lot of Jimmy in Jaime too. I dismissed it because of recency bias but I kind really like Jaime. The way he uses pumps and fakes feels similar and there's a more methodical way of getting to his spots. I've only seen highlights but if I knew more about his ability to create for others, his inclination to pick up his pace, and his defense I might go numb and want him at 13.

Jaquez has a high probability to be a “he shoulda went way higher” candidate. If he could shoot a 3 consistently he’d be 1st round for sure, like 15-20.

[grant101]

I wouldn't make the comparison between Jimmy and Brice. Jimmy is more of a slasher like Jaime, while Brice is more of a jump shooter like DeMar was. Defense is also a huge thing to overlook. It's an effort thing, and Brice doesn't care for it. Jaime is all effort, just like Jimmy. Both guys who prefer to take the ball to the hoop, play hard, and hit the occasional 3 when the team needs it.

I thought i was seeing a lot of Jimmy in Jaime too. I dismissed it because of recency bias but I kind really like Jaime. The way he uses pumps and fakes feels similar and there's a more methodical way of getting to his spots. I've only seen highlights but if I knew more about his ability to create for others, his inclination to pick up his pace, and his defense I might go numb and want him at 13.

Jaquez has a high probability to be a “he shoulda went way higher” candidate. If he could shoot a 3 consistently he’d be 1st round for sure, like 15-20.

Jaquez is exactly the kind of player I miss out on a lot - Jack-of-all-trade types that will be asked to transition from staring/leading role in their college teams to a supporting one in the NBA. While he's good at a lot of things, outside of secondary playmaking, I'm not sure if he has any one above average NBA skill, and a couple below average ones (3pt shooting & defense). Doesn't help that he's older as well.

The problem with these types players is that they need real minutes and a coach's buy-in and understanding of their game to blossom. Not sure you'll see Jaime at his best if you sit him at the corner and ask him to play the Danny Green role - he's just not a strong enough shooter or defender. If you're going to play him, you need to involve him in actions and make him a play-maker. I don't mind buying into the second round for Jaime (though I have other preferences), but only if our FO and new coach are fully on-board. Otherwise, he's another David Johnson, Wendell Moore, Justin Jackson, etc., etc.

[dozo]

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The number one standout in this study is Jalen Hood-Schifino, terrorizing drop coverages with his mid-range prowess (sad Purdue noises) with the highest share of shots being difficult. While Nate Oats preaches the paint-and-three approach more than maybe any other coach, seeing Brandon Miller in the lower left corner is slightly concerning for hopes as a late shot-clock creator. Nick Smith Jr. had a messy freshman campaign battling injuries and consistent playing time, but his main sell circling around his tough shot-making spells some concerns as he lands at the bottom of this graph (albeit on limited volume compared to others).

If you look up a bit higher you can see ol’ Jalen Brunson hanging around on an island. His upper echelon functional strength, change of pace, and sweet footwork worked wonders in the trenches, and his outlier shot-making was one of the key indicators of his future success.

Jarace Walker did not have an easy shot diet, especially for an athletic/defensive inclined big wing, but maintaining respectable efficiency in spite of that provides some hope of a higher-end offensive outcome. Brice Sensabaugh was made for this graph, and his elite in-between and pull-up game scorched the Big Ten. Mikal Bridges is an interesting case study, as he was rarely tasked with difficult shots in college, but showcased elite efficiency that has shown to pay dividends for his self-creation jump.

As we move to bigs, we see a massive increase in the quality of looks these bigs are getting, as the high-percentile shots right at the rim occur at a sizably higher rate than their counterparts. No surprise to see the rim-running Dereck Lively and Adem Bona slotted in the top left corner, with a combined mere 13 low-quality shot attempts between the two. Domantas Sabonis is the biggest outlier of any NBA player I’ve looked at, the soft touch + bruising strength steamrolled over the poor WCC. Taylor Hendricks and DaRon Holmes II are the only two bigs in this class with over 10% of their looks being difficult shots and above average efficiency with those shots, though one can be certain Victor Wembanyama would break this graph entirely.

[grant101]

Bilal looks to be getting more and more comfortable with the big club

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[niQ]

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[HumbleRen]

Last 2 recent games from Bilal and Victor against the defending champs.

Game 1.

Victor Wembanyama: 19 Points|14 Rebounds|2 Assists|2 Blocks|3 Steals|5 TO on 44/33/50 splits in 36 minutes.


Bilal Coulibaly: 2 Points|3 Rebounds|3 Assists|0 Blocks|3 Steals|0 TO on 0/0/100 splits in 18 minutes.

Game 2.

Victor Wembanyama: 13 Points|10 Rebounds|2 Assists|1 Block|1 Steals|5 TO's on 41/100/100 splits in 35 minutes.

Bilal Coulibaly: 15 Points|5 Rebounds|1 Assist|0 Blocks|1 Steals on 66/100/100 splits in 34 minutes.

[Dalek]

Last 2 recent games from Bilal and Victor against the defending champs.

Game 1.

Victor Wembanyama: 19 Points|14 Rebounds|2 Assists|2 Blocks|3 Steals|5 TO on 44/33/50 splits in 36 minutes.


Bilal Coulibaly: 2 Points|3 Rebounds|3 Assists|0 Blocks|3 Steals|0 TO on 0/0/100 splits in 18 minutes.

Game 2.

Victor Wembanyama: 13 Points|10 Rebounds|2 Assists|1 Block|1 Steals|5 TO's on 41/100/100 splits in 35 minutes.

Bilal Coulibaly: 15 Points|5 Rebounds|1 Assist|0 Blocks|1 Steals on 66/100/100 splits in 34 minutes.

It is cool to see Bilal making an impact, but I would wonder if he has a huge benefit of playing with Wemby.

If you have a defensive anchor like Wemby you can take more chances being aggressive and out of position so your defensive numbers look good.

If teams focus 2/3 guys on Victor on offense, how open does it make Bilal? Is he getting open looks at the rim off dump-offs or from three? I'd like to better understand the dynamic because if Victor is truly a franchise altering prospect, than everyone benefits around him - see LBJ and his impact on others.

Not to say Bilal is a bad prospect, but how much does he benefit playing with Wemby each game?

[HumbleRen]

Last 2 recent games from Bilal and Victor against the defending champs.

Game 1.

Victor Wembanyama: 19 Points|14 Rebounds|2 Assists|2 Blocks|3 Steals|5 TO on 44/33/50 splits in 36 minutes.


Bilal Coulibaly: 2 Points|3 Rebounds|3 Assists|0 Blocks|3 Steals|0 TO on 0/0/100 splits in 18 minutes.

Game 2.

Victor Wembanyama: 13 Points|10 Rebounds|2 Assists|1 Block|1 Steals|5 TO's on 41/100/100 splits in 35 minutes.

Bilal Coulibaly: 15 Points|5 Rebounds|1 Assist|0 Blocks|1 Steals on 66/100/100 splits in 34 minutes.

It is cool to see Bilal making an impact, but I would wonder if he has a huge benefit of playing with Wemby.

If you have a defensive anchor like Wemby you can take more chances being aggressive and out of position so your defensive numbers look good.

If teams focus 2/3 guys on Victor on offense, how open does it make Bilal? Is he getting open looks at the rim off dump-offs or from three? I'd like to better understand the dynamic because if Victor is truly a franchise altering prospect, than everyone benefits around him - see LBJ and his impact on others.

Not to say Bilal is a bad prospect, but how much does he benefit playing with Wemby each game?

I've seen some games. Victor is seeing 2-3 bodies on him at almost all times so his teammates do benefit off his gravity but that's a great thing IMO because it shows that they know how to play their roles beside a #1 option.

If we were to draft Bilal, we're not asking him to be a creator or primary creator. He's going to be our OG replacement with a higher upside due to his mobility and fluidity. IF we're drafting him to be a #1 or #2 option, then yeah you'll probably be very disappointed with him.

[Vorticity]

no matter what league you play in, playoffs performance is a good indicator

[Spates]

I wouldn't make the comparison between Jimmy and Brice. Jimmy is more of a slasher like Jaime, while Brice is more of a jump shooter like DeMar was. Defense is also a huge thing to overlook. It's an effort thing, and Brice doesn't care for it. Jaime is all effort, just like Jimmy. Both guys who prefer to take the ball to the hoop, play hard, and hit the occasional 3 when the team needs it.

I thought i was seeing a lot of Jimmy in Jaime too. I dismissed it because of recency bias but I kind really like Jaime. The way he uses pumps and fakes feels similar and there's a more methodical way of getting to his spots. I've only seen highlights but if I knew more about his ability to create for others, his inclination to pick up his pace, and his defense I might go numb and want him at 13.

I think that Cissoko's size/strength and skillset and as diverse as Jimmy Butler. Also has 2 more years to get stronger (I think could also lose 5 lbs from gaining weight of his new body).

There's a lot to like with Sidy. His strength is a serious asset but he looks heavy. As he matures and improves his shape he could be very physically imposing. In the mold of OG and Dort.

[niQ]

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?t=_wlZCaxga-v5Fs3lAVBxzA&s=19

[ArthurVandelay]

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?t=_wlZCaxga-v5Fs3lAVBxzA&s=19

I’d draft him 4…no joke.

18.5 yo and continues to rise to the occasion at every opportunity. Combine that with his elite athleticism and freak measurements. If the background check shows he’s a gym rat and loves the game, I’m taking him 4.

[niQ]

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?t=_wlZCaxga-v5Fs3lAVBxzA&s=19

I’d draft him 4…no joke.

18.5 yo and continues to rise to the occasion at every opportunity. Combine that with his elite athleticism and freak measurements. If the background check shows he’s a gym rat and loves the game, I’m taking him 4.

Spicy!

[ArthurVandelay]

Last 2 recent games from Bilal and Victor against the defending champs.

Game 1.

Victor Wembanyama: 19 Points|14 Rebounds|2 Assists|2 Blocks|3 Steals|5 TO on 44/33/50 splits in 36 minutes.


Bilal Coulibaly: 2 Points|3 Rebounds|3 Assists|0 Blocks|3 Steals|0 TO on 0/0/100 splits in 18 minutes.

Game 2.

Victor Wembanyama: 13 Points|10 Rebounds|2 Assists|1 Block|1 Steals|5 TO's on 41/100/100 splits in 35 minutes.

Bilal Coulibaly: 15 Points|5 Rebounds|1 Assist|0 Blocks|1 Steals on 66/100/100 splits in 34 minutes.

It is cool to see Bilal making an impact, but I would wonder if he has a huge benefit of playing with Wemby.

If you have a defensive anchor like Wemby you can take more chances being aggressive and out of position so your defensive numbers look good.

If teams focus 2/3 guys on Victor on offense, how open does it make Bilal? Is he getting open looks at the rim off dump-offs or from three? I'd like to better understand the dynamic because if Victor is truly a franchise altering prospect, than everyone benefits around him - see LBJ and his impact on others.

Not to say Bilal is a bad prospect, but how much does he benefit playing with Wemby each game?

I've seen some games. Victor is seeing 2-3 bodies on him at almost all times so his teammates do benefit off his gravity but that's a great thing IMO because it shows that they know how to play their roles beside a #1 option.

If we were to draft Bilal, we're not asking him to be a creator or primary creator. He's going to be our OG replacement with a higher upside due to his mobility and fluidity. IF we're drafting him to be a #1 or #2 option, then yeah you'll probably be very disappointed with him.

I’m not excited about Bilal at 19 as a rookie. I’m excited about year 3/4/5 at 21/22/23. And I’m thrilled about year 6 onwards at 24/25+.