Official Raptors 2011 NBA Draft Thread, Part 4

[CunningLinguist]

This is exactly it. Just becaue he's explosive vertically doesn't mean he has the lateral quicks to defend the SF position.

It's a valid point. I'm one of the fastest runners in my pickup game (in terms of running down the open court) but I'll be damned if I can keep up with half the guys in terms of guarding them laterally.

That being said, he appears to be the closest thing to a sure thing in this draft outside of Irving. If we did draft him, we could bring him off the bench in a 3/4 role (similar to Kleiza) and then deal with trading one of our bigs later on. If we got a playmaking pg (like Andre Miller), we could have a nice running lineup of something like Miller, Barbosa, Derozan, Williams, Davis.

I just don't think his type of player will be impactful enough on both sides of the ball at the NBA level to displace guys like Ed Davis on our roster. I see Williams as a more athletic Antawn Jamison in his prime, who while a good player, is not a franchise changer. If there was an all-world PF prospect I would have no problem selecting him as the BPA.

I just think that an athletic PG that can break people down off the dribble and dish to open teammates is much more valuable than a player like Williams, given the landscape of the game today. I think Irving, Knight and Walker each have that ability.

Just look at the T'Wolves as an example. They have Kevin Love and Michael Beasley, guys would can fill the stat sheet with points and rebounds, but can't guard their own shadow. That team still stinks because of their poor D from their forwards and their lack of good guard play.

[Landomar]

I'm just not a fan of Val. Huge Bust rate imo. I actually think he drops in the draft.

I do think Valanciunas is a risky pick at this point, but in general, he's my favourite prospect at the moment. I just have a hunch about this guy, and if he develops as hoped, he could be the next great European big man in the NBA.

Reasons for optimism
- He's a late developer that is currently improving at a fast rate
- Incredible length with solid athleticism; very bouncy
- Is a great hustle player with a natural skill for rebounding
- Has excellent hands and finishes well at the rim (he reminds me of a longer Amir Johnson in this particular area)
- Very good FT shooter; while he doesn't shoot jumpers in games yet, I think he has the work ethic to develop a very good shot from the field as well (like an Aldridge, Millsap, or P.Gasol).

Concerns
- Needs to add a lot of strength (this contributes to his current high foul rate)
- Defensive awareness is a question mark
- Doesn't really have much of an offensive arsenal at this point

The sky is the limit for this guy, even if he currently has a long way to go. If he plateaus fairly soon, then you'd have a role player of dubious quality, which would be a disappointment with a high lottery pick. If he reaches his potential, though, you have an impact center that is good at just about everything. That's what I see in him, in any case.

[Salted Meat]

Keeping in mind that a lockout would offer any draftee ample time to work exclusively on his perceived weaknesses (ball handling, midrange/3pt shot, rebounding, weight training, post moves, etc) and assuming we don't have the #1 pick, my top 5 are:

1. Harrison Barnes- Love this kid. His maturity and demeanor on the court are very advanced for his age. He needs to improve his ability to break his man down and get to the hoop, but that can easily be worked on. Have him in the gym 24/7, working on his strength, handles, and rebounding, and he'll be a force for years to come.

2. Perry Jones- Insane upside, and has the ability to make a huge impact as a SF on our team. Can he defend the 3? Maybe, maybe not... but ask this: can he spend the lockout in the gym, improving his lateral quicks? Absolutely. This is a kid who I think can really benefit from having the opportunity to work directly with specialist coaches to improve his areas of deficiency (perimeter d, long-range j).

3. Jonas Valanciunas- He needs to add some mass to his frame, and although he could decide to stay in Europe during the lockout, he'd really benefit from coming over and working with big-man & strength coaches to get him ready for the NBA game. He'll still need time to develop even after the lockout, but he's the kind of guy you want on your team if you're looking ahead five years from now.

4. Brandon Knight- Knight already has a lot of positives, but a lockout would afford him the opportunity to improve the explosiveness of his first step, his ability to run the open floor, and even add a post-game (which would round out his repertoire nicely) Knight has a lot of room to grow and if developed properly, could be a huge piece for us moving forward.

5. Jan Vesely- A bit of a reach here, but again, this is about using the lockout as an opportunity to really develop players, and Vesely has as much upside as anyone in the draft. He needs to improve his strength, ball handling, and decision-making, but give the kid 6-7 months of solid weight training, dribble-drills, and conditioning, and he could be a real find.

[sunny]

at 6'9 Derrick Williams is the tallest player on the Arizona Wildcats who plays regular minutes.
As a result, Derrick plays defense against the other teams tallest/biggest players and is usually in the post. The question of if he can guard NBA small forwards is hard to answer. It's not because he hasn't shown the ability, its because he doesn't regularly guard small forwards.
If Dwill was to be on a team with 4 other starters at every position, he would likely look a lot more appealing as a SF. Unfortunately, it doesn't work out that way.
Derrick plays a big for Arizona, although he has been playing along the perimeter a lot more since his injury. He's been handling the ball a lot more, and shooting from a distance much more than he use to.

In regards to his three point shooting, this is what Sean Miller said in regards to Derrick's 3 point shooting records above guys like Steve Kerr and Salim Stoudamire.

Sean Miller (im paraprhasing here): Put them in practice and Kerr would shoot Derrick out of the gym, but because Derrick is such a gamer, in a real situation, he is determined to hit every shot and will likely make more than any player in the country.

Keep in mind, Derrick USUALLY (obviously his shot before half time yesterday was an exception) shoots 3's when he's open and isn't taking crazy shots like Jimmer does, but his 3 point numbers are incredible.

[sunny]

Quote-----

The Sweet 16 often features numerous players that ultimately get selected in the lottery. Whether their teams made the Sweet 16 because of the talent they feature or the success of their teams pushed the draft stock of these players higher than it should be, there's no denying that in watching Thursday and Friday, I'm breaking down future lottery guys or first-round picks. Here's what I saw Thursday night from some of the draft prospects.

Derrick Williams
Williams is well-respected as a shooter, which helps him seal guys inside. It's so much harder to defend a post player who is a perimeter threat. Cheating outside to defend that threat gives Williams the seal opportunity. He impacts a game in every way and is by far his team's best player. Think about how he would play if he had another high-level player on his team. Say, Kyrie Irving and Nolan Smith as his guards -- because those are the types of players he'll have in the NBA. Any team considering drafting Jared Sullinger will have to consider Williams. He has a great chance to be a better pro and might be a safer bet to not be a bust (some teams worry about Sullinger's body).

Kemba Walker
Because Walker has such a good midrange jumper, he's able to utilize a shot fake off dribble drives effectively. He did just that early in the game against San Diego State, ducking under the defender who jumped up to contest his shot. In the NBA, he'll be sure to draw contact and get to the line. I think Walker stands upright too often on defense, though I'd guess he won't once he's faced with guarding guys such as Derrick Rose and Rajon Rondo. I'm impressed with the way he flows to the ball on defense once a shot is up. Some guys are quicker with the ball than without it, but Walker is not one of those guys. His first step using a screen or cutting back door is very good, making it much tougher to deny him the ball.

Kawhi Leonard
Early foul trouble always impacts a player's overall aggressiveness. It's precisely why teams have to scout players all year, every year, so they can still have lots of scouting insight despite not seeing the player at his best in big games. I love Leonard's hands more than anything else. We know rebounding numbers translate well from college to the NBA, and part of the reason is that hands don't shrink. His length is partly because of his long fingers, which stick to the ball perfectly in the paint. They also enable him to extend on layups with good control, which is something guys with smaller hands struggle with. Leonard needs work taking a better angle past his defender on his first step. His shooting mechanics are not terrible, but the shot is very flat. That's an easy problem to fix, but it must be addressed."Elbow above eye" is what I teach players who have flat shots. He has so many technical things to learn on offense, especially out on the floor, which is why he's a likely lottery player. He's a highly productive player who can get so much better.

Jimmer Fredette
In the tournament, Fredette displayed an excellent understanding of how to create shots for teammates off the attention he got as a scorer and shooter. I don't know if he see's two plays ahead, but he's definitely one play ahead. One of the issues I have with projecting him as a scorer in the NBA is how many dribbles and fakes he often needs to get a shot off. For a variety of reasons, Fredette will not have the kind of opportunity to get multiple dribbles to create looks very often at the next level. I'd like to see more quick attacks, which he can be effective on. On the other side, his point-of-attack defense is very weak, which is problematic because the most common way a defense breaks down is at the point of attack.

Kyrie Irving
His build reminds me of Jrue Holiday, strong and compact but not small. Over time that should translate into being a plus defender. There is no way to defend power point guards such as Rose and Russell Westbrook without being strong. Irving's poise would be impressive even if he had played all season. Missing most of the season and still playing as if he hadn't is rare to see for a freshman. Irving has the great mix of competitive fire and willingness to wear it on his sleeve. That impacts his teammates in a positive way. He's super skilled at changing pace in transition, and not just for his own shot. Slowing down a step to allow a teammate to catch up to the play is advanced basketball and something some NBA guards still don't do.

Nolan Smith
I've always thought Smith could be a scoring lead guard in the NBA. Still do. He's quick and crafty with his handle and such a good shooter that he's a nice option off the bench for a team, whether it needs him as part of a scoring two or a defensive guy. He's a very unlikely lottery guy, but I included him here because there is a chance a team falls in love with his complete offensive game.

[dagger]

Here's a mock draft that actually takes into account team needs, but I find it a bit lame on our reasons for taking Perry Jones, i.e. he hits a need now but won't when he develops...

Not that the read on Jones' talent is wrong, I can't say, only the logic advanced here is a bit bizarre.

And Marcus Morris at 6th? This guy must have a boner for Kansas.

http://www.probasketballdraft.com/Mock_Draft.html