2023 Draft Discussion Part 5

[WuTang_CMB]

He had some fans last year as a potential UDFA. He can touch the top of the backboard and gets his head over the rim, but shows little in terms of actual basketball ability.

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Scrap

[ArthurVandelay]

BPM is a stat derived from boxscores using regression from teammates I believe. Basically correlates to net rating. Therefore, its not really a great stat to rely upon. I'd guess most of the top 20 or so drafted players from past 12 drafts have good BPMs. So, how meaningful is that stat then? Also, I'd really factor in that a player is a freshman or not, big difference. Or if he was 3rd option with good or experienced players plus the conference he played in. I'd look more at the player's individual efficiency stats relative to age and then proceed from there. Nobody can tell me Anthony Edwards stats were impressive, he had a good OBPM but was not efficient at all.

Yet for the last 12 or 13 drafts there isn’t a player, that I’m aware of, with low OBPM or DBPM or combined BPM that had become an impact NBA player except Zach Lavine.

It’s meaningful enough that you can’t find an NBA all-star except Zach Lavine doesn’t have an absolute minimum 2.0 DBPM and BPM of at least 7.0 over the last 12 to 13 years. Most NBA all-stars are going to be 10.0 BPM minimum.

So instead of trashing the stat, find exceptions. Thanks to whoever posted LaVine. There is one.

[ItsDanger]

BPM is a stat derived from boxscores using regression from teammates I believe. Basically correlates to net rating. Therefore, its not really a great stat to rely upon. I'd guess most of the top 20 or so drafted players from past 12 drafts have good BPMs. So, how meaningful is that stat then? Also, I'd really factor in that a player is a freshman or not, big difference. Or if he was 3rd option with good or experienced players plus the conference he played in. I'd look more at the player's individual efficiency stats relative to age and then proceed from there. Nobody can tell me Anthony Edwards stats were impressive, he had a good OBPM but was not efficient at all.

Yet for the last 12 or 13 drafts there isn’t a player, that I’m aware of, with low OBPM or DBPM or combined BPM that had become an impact NBA player except Zach Lavine.

It’s meaningful enough that you can’t find an NBA all-star except Zach Lavine doesn’t have an absolute minimum 2.0 DBPM and BPM of at least 7.0 over the last 12 to 13 years. Most NBA all-stars are going to be 10.0 BPM minimum.

So instead of trashing the stat, find exceptions. Thanks to whoever posted LaVine. There is one.

Lot of failures in the draft with good BPM also. How many in each top 20 didn't have a good BPM? I can pick out guys who had a good DBPM but were definitely trash defensively. Same with offense. I just don't think it's a reliable stat.

[BoyzNTheHood]

He was a combine measurement king

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[Jadoogar]

What do people like more about George than Bufkin? Very similar physical profile.
Bufkin is a better prospect to me. He doesn't have 1 elite skill but no significant weakness either. Bufkin is a better finisher and projects as a better shooter (85% from FT)

[BoyzNTheHood]

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[ArthurVandelay]

BPM is a stat derived from boxscores using regression from teammates I believe. Basically correlates to net rating. Therefore, its not really a great stat to rely upon. I'd guess most of the top 20 or so drafted players from past 12 drafts have good BPMs. So, how meaningful is that stat then? Also, I'd really factor in that a player is a freshman or not, big difference. Or if he was 3rd option with good or experienced players plus the conference he played in. I'd look more at the player's individual efficiency stats relative to age and then proceed from there. Nobody can tell me Anthony Edwards stats were impressive, he had a good OBPM but was not efficient at all.

Yet for the last 12 or 13 drafts there isn’t a player, that I’m aware of, with low OBPM or DBPM or combined BPM that had become an impact NBA player except Zach Lavine.

It’s meaningful enough that you can’t find an NBA all-star except Zach Lavine doesn’t have an absolute minimum 2.0 DBPM and BPM of at least 7.0 over the last 12 to 13 years. Most NBA all-stars are going to be 10.0 BPM minimum.

So instead of trashing the stat, find exceptions. Thanks to whoever posted LaVine. There is one.

Lot of failures in the draft with good BPM also. How many in each top 20 didn't have a good BPM? I can pick out guys who had a good DBPM but were definitely trash defensively. Same with offense. I just don't think it's a reliable stat.

Your opinion and a couple dollars will get you a double-double at Tim’s.

Again, find a player over the last 12 to 13 years that became a star without solid DBPM or BPM.

It’s not about the guys who had that good stat and didn’t make it. It’s the guys that didn’t have the stat and did, like Zach Lavine (who is still a flawed player and could be referred to as empty calories).

You can find guys who had great DBPM and BPM stats and didn’t become a star, but you really struggle to find guys who didn’t have great DBPM and BPM who did.

For me is how you get past the measurements, the athleticism, the basic stats. This is how you get past the opinions and fluff. Because when you say you are all in on guys like GG, JHS, Lewis, etc. what you’re really saying is these players are going to be the first ones with BPM under 2.0 to become a star. I don’t take comfort in that.

[ATLTimekeeper]

BPM is a stat derived from boxscores using regression from teammates I believe. Basically correlates to net rating. Therefore, its not really a great stat to rely upon. I'd guess most of the top 20 or so drafted players from past 12 drafts have good BPMs. So, how meaningful is that stat then? Also, I'd really factor in that a player is a freshman or not, big difference. Or if he was 3rd option with good or experienced players plus the conference he played in. I'd look more at the player's individual efficiency stats relative to age and then proceed from there. Nobody can tell me Anthony Edwards stats were impressive, he had a good OBPM but was not efficient at all.

Yet for the last 12 or 13 drafts there isn’t a player, that I’m aware of, with low OBPM or DBPM or combined BPM that had become an impact NBA player except Zach Lavine.

It’s meaningful enough that you can’t find an NBA all-star except Zach Lavine doesn’t have an absolute minimum 2.0 DBPM and BPM of at least 7.0 over the last 12 to 13 years. Most NBA all-stars are going to be 10.0 BPM minimum.

So instead of trashing the stat, find exceptions. Thanks to whoever posted LaVine. There is one.

I did all that work earlier, and explained it all. I don't think your numbers here are what I found, but the gist is the same. Not going to bother repeating myself. It doesn't tell you who will be good, because there's just too many college players and there will always be a dominant field that aren't NBA calibre players. It is fairly reliable in telling you who won't be good.

If there was any number that told you anything, every NBA team would know it and drafting would be very efficient along those statlines. Every single team has staff members that look for correlations like this.

[ArthurVandelay]

BPM is a stat derived from boxscores using regression from teammates I believe. Basically correlates to net rating. Therefore, its not really a great stat to rely upon. I'd guess most of the top 20 or so drafted players from past 12 drafts have good BPMs. So, how meaningful is that stat then? Also, I'd really factor in that a player is a freshman or not, big difference. Or if he was 3rd option with good or experienced players plus the conference he played in. I'd look more at the player's individual efficiency stats relative to age and then proceed from there. Nobody can tell me Anthony Edwards stats were impressive, he had a good OBPM but was not efficient at all.

Yet for the last 12 or 13 drafts there isn’t a player, that I’m aware of, with low OBPM or DBPM or combined BPM that had become an impact NBA player except Zach Lavine.

It’s meaningful enough that you can’t find an NBA all-star except Zach Lavine doesn’t have an absolute minimum 2.0 DBPM and BPM of at least 7.0 over the last 12 to 13 years. Most NBA all-stars are going to be 10.0 BPM minimum.

So instead of trashing the stat, find exceptions. Thanks to whoever posted LaVine. There is one.

I did all that work earlier, and explained it all. I don't think your numbers here are what I found, but the gist is the same. Not going to bother repeating myself. It doesn't tell you who will be good, because there's just too many college players and there will always be a dominant field that aren't NBA calibre players. It is fairly reliable in telling you who won't be good.

If there was any number that told you anything, every NBA team would know it and drafting would be very efficient along those statlines. Every single team has staff members that look for correlations like this.

I didn’t see your post. Got a link?

Again, DBPM and BPM doesn’t ensure success but it pretty much guarantees who won’t succeed. That’s the key for me, it’s a filter. And like everything else there are exceptions to any rule, like Zach Lavine.

So any other stars or even 5+ year starters out there with low DBPM (<1) or BPM (<2) numbers?

I’m genuinely interested if anyone can find real players versus opinions.

[Mark_83]

Hmm. I wonder what team Walker has set as his floor to take that promise. There's no reason for him to shut things down unless he's comfortable falling to that spot, and there's no reason for a team to give him a promise if they're already high enough to pick him.

Dallas would seem to make some sense. He played for Houston and would give them the kind of switchable wing they lost when they traded Finney-Smith.

If he's looking for the highest pick possible, that makes no sense. He can get higher than 10th. But if he's looking for the best fit, than you cant really get better than Dallas for him. He'll start right away and play a big role for them, and if his 3pt shot progresses, he'll get paid heavily playing beside Doncic (and maybe Irving)

I didn't say he is or isn't looking for the highest possible pick. I just said if you're a player accepting a promise then that's probably the lowest you're willing to go. You're looking for a guaranteed floor. A team higher than that may still take you without a workout but weren't willing to give you a promise.

A team usually gives a player a promise in exchange for shutting it down in order to get the player to drop to them. In exchange the player has a soft landing spot with potential to go higher.

I chose Dallas cause they're far enough down that he's not guaranteed to be there, but not high enough where they don't need to make a promise. Indiana could be possible too.

[Dalek]

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That could be the case and their jumpers are the question mark. They are doing workouts with teams so they really can't hide their shooting, and the fact that they filmed the Portland workout one is pretty telling especially with Lillard there. No need for them to do pro days if they are top 5 - I just don't see the benefit of the larger exposure.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I didn’t see your post. Got a link?

Again, DBPM and BPM doesn’t ensure success but it pretty much guarantees who won’t succeed. That’s the key for me, it’s a filter. And like everything else there are exceptions to any rule, like Zach Lavine.

So any other stars or even 5+ year starters out there with low DBPM (<1) or BPM (<2) numbers?

I’m genuinely interested if anyone can find real players versus opinions.

Low DBPM has some very good players, still.

I didn't look at top 10, but here's just BPM all-stars:

NBA stars drafted beyond pick #10 draft year BPM, I bolded everyone under 8:

Siakam, 8.2
MItchell 11.2
Haliburton 11.7
Adebayo 8.2
SGA 9
Sabonis 8.2
LaVine 2.9
FVV 10.2
Jimmy Butler 9.4
Khris Middleton 6.2
Jarrett Allen 5.2
Devin Booker 9.4
D. Murray 3.6
Draymond Green 12.1
Vucevic 9.4
Kawhi Leonard 9.2
Klay Thompson 9.8
Isaiah Thomas 8.1

Worth noting that Khris Middleton was over 8 in his sophomore year and had some knee issues in his junior (draft) year. I think Jrue Holiday would likely qualify under 8, because he was pretty meh at UCLA. My thoughts are pretty obvious. If you're hunting for an all-star later on in the draft you need to look at >8s and consider Zach LaVine/D. Murray types as flukes.

Here's just solid players:

I went through every NBA player playing over 20 minutes a night (242 players, well over 100 NCAA players since they've counted BPM). Here's how many had a draft year BPM under 5.

Austin Rivers (4)
Troy Brown (3.7)
Cam Reddish (4.5)
Jalen McDaniels (3.3)
Torrey Craig (0.6!)
Gabe Vincent (2.6)
Max Strus (4.5)
Lu Dort (3.1)
Jaden McDaniels (2.6)
Jordan Clarkson (4.3)
Tyrese Maxey (4.4)
Kevin Porter (3.3)
Darius Garland (4.9)
Zach LaVine (2.9)
Jaylen Brown (3.6)
Dejounte Murray (3.6)

Teams should not draft anyone under 2, and should feel very confident passing on anyone under 3.

Anyway, from this you can see some all-star top 10 hits, Brown and Garland. Garland played like 4-5 games, so I don't even count that.

[WuTang_CMB]

deadline tonight

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[Spates]

What do people like more about George than Bufkin? Very similar physical profile.
Bufkin is a better prospect to me. He doesn't have 1 elite skill but no significant weakness either. Bufkin is a better finisher and projects as a better shooter (85% from FT)

I think it's upside. He has the appeal of a potential difficult shot maker. He looks the part but the shot wasn't falling last year.

[Spates]

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Any hot takes on Kobe Brown?

[Yallbecrazy]

I didn’t see your post. Got a link?

Again, DBPM and BPM doesn’t ensure success but it pretty much guarantees who won’t succeed. That’s the key for me, it’s a filter. And like everything else there are exceptions to any rule, like Zach Lavine.

So any other stars or even 5+ year starters out there with low DBPM (<1) or BPM (<2) numbers?

I’m genuinely interested if anyone can find real players versus opinions.

Low DBPM has some very good players, still.

I didn't look at top 10, but here's just BPM all-stars:

NBA stars drafted beyond pick #10 draft year BPM, I bolded everyone under 8:

Siakam, 8.2
MItchell 11.2
Haliburton 11.7
Adebayo 8.2
SGA 9
Sabonis 8.2
LaVine 2.9
FVV 10.2
Jimmy Butler 9.4
Khris Middleton 6.2
Jarrett Allen 5.2
Devin Booker 9.4
D. Murray 3.6
Draymond Green 12.1
Vucevic 9.4
Kawhi Leonard 9.2
Klay Thompson 9.8
Isaiah Thomas 8.1

Worth noting that Khris Middleton was over 8 in his sophomore year and had some knee issues in his junior (draft) year. I think Jrue Holiday would likely qualify under 8, because he was pretty meh at UCLA. My thoughts are pretty obvious. If you're hunting for an all-star later on in the draft you need to look at >8s and consider Zach LaVine/D. Murray types as flukes.

Here's just solid players:

I went through every NBA player playing over 20 minutes a night (242 players, well over 100 NCAA players since they've counted BPM). Here's how many had a draft year BPM under 5.

Austin Rivers (4)
Troy Brown (3.7)
Cam Reddish (4.5)
Jalen McDaniels (3.3)
Torrey Craig (0.6!)
Gabe Vincent (2.6)
Max Strus (4.5)
Lu Dort (3.1)
Jaden McDaniels (2.6)
Jordan Clarkson (4.3)
Tyrese Maxey (4.4)
Kevin Porter (3.3)
Darius Garland (4.9)
Zach LaVine (2.9)
Jaylen Brown (3.6)
Dejounte Murray (3.6)

Teams should not draft anyone under 2, and should feel very confident passing on anyone under 3.

Anyway, from this you can see some all-star top 10 hits, Brown and Garland. Garland played like 4-5 games, so I don't even count that.

Worth noting Brown and Garland were absolutely awful as rookies, but have both had incredible growth trajectories.

Edit: Lavine too, I'm talking well below your average 1st round pick and also well below replacement player you can freely sign from the G League bad.

[ItsDanger]

For those players looking for guaranteed money, remember all the teams that had the opportunity to do it right now. Don't crowd your roster with low upside projects and vets.

[BoyzNTheHood]

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Any hot takes on Kobe Brown?

First round talent but just a bit too old. Massive second round steal.

[WuTang_CMB]

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[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

What do people like more about George than Bufkin? Very similar physical profile.
Bufkin is a better prospect to me. He doesn't have 1 elite skill but no significant weakness either. Bufkin is a better finisher and projects as a better shooter (85% from FT)

He has the same last name as Paul George.

Out of all the weird dudes George will likely be the one with the most potential to start (Howard, NSJ, JHS, etc..) but I just think his game is too much 1v1 zoning everything else out and when he can't do that you see the lack of feel in his game. If basketball were a 1v1 sport he'd probably fare well but so would Rafer Alston.