Snippet of the guys we're interested in...
The "No Surprises Here" Group
Alec Burks, G/F, So., Colorado
Likely draft position: Lottery
Breakdown: Like the rest of the decisions in this group, Burks' choice to forgo the final two years of his collegiate career is something of a no-brainer, even if it's not a Derrick Williams-level slam dunk. Burks emerged as a tantalizing pro prospect in his surprising freshman season, and he only built on that promise as a sophomore. The only thing keeping Burks from being a possible top-five pick is a shaky jump shot. But athletes this good, with Burks' innate feel for scoring around the rim, only come along so often.
What it means for his team: Thanks in large part to the consistently brilliant play of Burks and the solid tutelage of first-year coach Tad Boyle, the 2010-11 Buffaloes got closer to the NCAA tournament than at any time in the program's recent past. Problem is, Burks isn't the only player leaving. Colorado also waves farewell to seniors Cory Higgins, Levi Knutson and Marcus Relphorde, all of whom were double-digit scorers last season. In other words, the Buffs will enter their first year in the Pac-12 -- and the second year of the Boyle era -- in the midst of a full-on rebuild.
Kyrie Irving, PG, Fr., Duke
Likely draft position: Top three
Breakdown: Now this is a no-brainer. Sure, for much of the season, as Irving rehabbed his freakishly injured toe and missed all but 11 of his team's games, Duke faithful held out hope that their star point guard would return for another season and make good on the flashes of brilliance he displayed during his limited run in Durham. But few Blue Devils fans could begrudge Irving his decision. After all, he's still the likely favorite to be selected No. 1 overall in June. Frankly, Irving's stock has nowhere to go but down. When NBA scouts are drooling that much, you don't go back to school no matter how many games you play as a freshman.
What it means for his team: Hopeful Duke fans were salivating at the notion of Irving's return, which would have teamed the star with friend and fellow top point guard prospect Austin Rivers in 2011-12. The mere idea of that backcourt is enough to inspire nightmares among Coach K's ACC brethren. Fortunately for those coaches, it isn't happening. But with Rivers -- who could very well end up as the NBA's No. 1 overall pick next year -- arriving as part of an excellent recruiting class, Duke will again be one of the top teams in the country.
Kawhi Leonard, F, So., San Diego State
Likely draft position: Lottery
Breakdown: Much like his team -- which began the 2010-11 season as an intriguing Mountain West favorite and ended it as a No. 2 seed and Final Four contender -- Leonard spent his season going from relative national unknown to household name in a matter of five months. That status means it's time to get in the draft now, a decision made more appealing with the knowledge that fellow highly touted, versatile forwards Harrison Barnes and Perry Jones, who would have been ranked higher than Leonard on every NBA general manager's draft board, chose not to enter the draft. Leonard is an interesting NBA fit. His jumper isn't great and his offensive game can be shaky, but he is a truly gifted athlete and a great rebounder who could theoretically play at the 2, 3 or 4 spots in the NBA.
What it means for his team: San Diego State may not take as big a step back as you'd expect at first glance -- there is still some quality talent in Steve Fisher's stable -- but the loss of Leonard, in addition to the departures of seniors Malcolm Thomas and D.J. Gay, among others, will ensure the Aztecs look much different (and not nearly as scary) next season.
Kemba Walker, PG, Jr., UConn
Likely position: Lottery
Breakdown: In many ways, Walker's end-to-end stardom -- from his magic show in the Maui Invitational to his national championship coronation in Houston -- was the story of the 2010-11 college basketball season. It's no shock, then, that he'll cap it off by entering the NBA draft. Even though his ideal position is shooting guard, Walker is perhaps generously listed at 6-foot-1, which means he'll almost certainly have to play point guard in the NBA. In other words, he'll have to become a much better passer -- arguably the weakest part of Walker's game right now -- to be an impact player at the next level. Still, Walker is one of the best pure scorers and perimeter defenders in the draft, and he's striking while the iron is incredibly hot.
What it means for his team: The national champs will obviously miss their do-everything star, but Jim Calhoun does have his three best non-Kemba players -- Jeremy Lamb, Shabazz Napier and Alex Oriakhi -- set to make even greater individual leaps next season. He also has promising freshman guard Ryan Boatright arriving in the fall. The Huskies might not have their star, but they'll be an intriguing force in the Big East all the same.
Derrick Williams, F, So., Arizona
Likely position: Top three
Breakdown: Williams is the reason why your favorite school's low recruiting rankings might not necessarily be the worst news in the world. He wasn't listed among the top 150 recruits in the 2009 class, but by his sophomore year -- which included a monstrous performance in Arizona's Sweet 16 domination of top-seeded Duke -- Williams had morphed into one of the most ruthlessly efficient scorers and rebounders in the college game. He might be something of a tweener forward at the next level, but he already has an effective outside shot (he averaged 57 percent from beyond the arc in 2010-11) to pair with his low-post scoring. His prospective draft position as a possible No. 1 overall pick reflects that unique blend of skill.
What it means for his team: No one likes to lose a player as good as Williams, but it's a testament to the increasing strength of Sean Miller's program -- which will add the No. 7-ranked recruiting class in the country alongside MoMo Jones, Solomon Hill and others -- that many still see the Wildcats as a Pac-12 contender without their efficient forward.
