Tank World Order

[Syd-TK3]

Just change the name of the thread to Rebuild/Retool World Order so some of these people can get it

[bluerap23]

Road to a championship doesn't end with tanking obviously. That's why I don't like when people say this team tanked but haven't won anything that means tanking is bad. Once you get that player who you can build around through the draft. That's it tanking's job is finished. After that you gotta have proper coaching, proper management and like with everything a little bit of luck. But you gotta do that initial first step because those other steps won't matter

The main argument is about odds.

So what are the odds that a tanking team will draft the next LeBron James.

First you have to have a LeBron James available in the draft.

Then you have to be really bad in the year of the draft.

Then you have to be extremely lucky to win the draft lottery.

Then you have to build a championship contender around the LeBron James and you only have 7 years to do it starting with an awful team that was bad enough to get the LeBron James.

Then, even if you do it, you have to keep that LeBron James happy enough to stay with your organization.


Now remember that the Cleveland Cavaliers did not win a title in those first 7 years and that LeBron James left. And that LeBron James would never have gone back to Cleveland if he wasn't from Ohio.

All of that and you finally win the title with the LeBron James and he still leaves to move to LA.


My argument is that, in the modern NBA (player empowerment era), as a not-ideal location for NBA superstars, you have just as good odds at contending for many years and winning a championship the way WE ACTUALLY WON!

[Pooh_Jeter]

You don't need a LeBron James, you need a top 10 (likely top 5) guy. Still rare, but getting the next LeBron is a 0.001% type of chance.

Getting that guy in the draft and having at least 7 years of control > hoping a Kawhi trade magically happens again.

Masai and co built a solid foundation for Kawhi to enter and be successful, but the key to this entire 8 year run was Kawhi, not the supporting pieces. There are countless combinations of players you could have surrounded Kawhi with and had similar results for that one season, you could have only replaced Kawhi with LeBron, KD and maybe Steph.

That is the major point. FVV, Siakam and OG are fine, but they are replaceable parts. No, that doesn't mean they are trash, but there are reasonable comps to them that you can build a team with. Kawhi is 1 of 1.

[bluerap23]

Ok let’s say top 5

Top players that have won a chip in the current era are

LeBron
Curry
KD
Kawhi
AD

LeBron won one title with the team that drafted him. That was exceptional because it wouldn’t have happened if he wasn’t from Ohio but still chalk that up as a success. He still left them. And by the way Cleveland had to win the lottery 3 times in 4 years while LeBron was gone in order to get him back. Odds that are ridiculous and would never happens again.

Kawhi won 1 title with the team that drafted him. He still left them.

KD did not win a title with team that drafted him.

AD did not win a title with the team that drafted him.

So 2 of the above 4 didnot win a title and 2 won one title (the same number as us) and still lost the player just like us.

Steph curry is the one exception.

[Drygon]

The reality is our title has made people believe that it is a replicable strategy, and are now trying to make the exceptions to the rule in terms of making a contender teams - now the norm.

As you said, we can’t sign a FA, we have less assets to trade for a superstar and a Kawhi like situation with the pennies on the dollar won’t happen again, and if it somehow does, the league won’t just sit on its thumbs and let us be the only team in on it.

I don’t understand how getting the one piece is said so easily now because we did it in such a rare fashion.

It’s the hardest piece to get, and it almost always comes from the draft if not FA which isn’t an option for us.

The Lakers were one piece away and added Shaq, the Warriors were already a title team but were a piece away from being unstoppable and getting KD.

Saying it so calm and simple doesn’t take away from how difficult it is.

In our franchise history we had that one piece for literally one season.

Even Vince as great as he was - wasn’t at that level.

Toronto Raptors is a much, much better team compared how they were in 2000s.

And Peak Vince would easily a superstar level talent. He was a top 5 player during 2000-01 season.

- 5th place among top scorers (27.6 PPG)
- 2nd place in PER
- 1st place in OBPM
- 2nd place in BPM
- 1st place in VORP
- 3rd place in OWS

You’re listing a lot of box score advanced stats.

He wasn’t top ten in MVP voting that year.

Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, Iverson, Webber, Kidd, Garnett were all better.

Kawhi is a level above Vince.

Vince's box score & and impact stats was better compared to most most of the players you mentioned.

If advanced metrics was valued in 2000s, Vince would have been top 10 in MVP-voting easily.

Hell, AI won MVP despite being inefficient chucker and wasn't top 5 in any of major advanced stats.

[MixxSRC]

Ok let’s say top 5

Top players that have won a chip in the current era are

LeBron
Curry
KD
Kawhi
AD

LeBron won one title with the team that drafted him. That was exceptional because it wouldn’t have happened if he wasn’t from Ohio but still chalk that up as a success. He still left them. And by the way Cleveland had to win the lottery 3 times in 4 years while LeBron was gone in order to get him back. Odds that are ridiculous and would never happens again.

Kawhi won 1 title with the team that drafted him. He still left them.

KD did not win a title with team that drafted him.

AD did not win a title with the team that drafted him.

So 2 of the above 4 didnot win a title and 2 won one title (the same number as us) and still lost the player just like us.

Steph curry is the one exception.

Job of a tank is to position yourself in draft to be able get perennial All-Star. Did those teams do it? Yes. Then tank was successful.

[Clay Davis]

Problem is is that we want to tank AND have this roster. The ideal situation is we plug in a star and they start to compete. It would be asinine to throw out our young assets just to get another asset. This isn't Graceful Charity boys. This is draw 1 discard 1 (possibly not draw at all lol).

We don't want to, at any point, have a mediocre roster. It's not easy to surround a drafted star with reasonable talent from the draft alone, since it takes those guys time to develop. By the time they're don't developing and the roster is rounded to compete, the drafted star will, most likely, be a couple years away from their first UFA. Good luck retaining them if you've only ever been mediocre and never made noise in the play-offs.

[Steelo Green]

Toronto Raptors is a much, much better team compared how they were in 2000s.

And Peak Vince would easily a superstar level talent. He was a top 5 player during 2000-01 season.

- 5th place among top scorers (27.6 PPG)
- 2nd place in PER
- 1st place in OBPM
- 2nd place in BPM
- 1st place in VORP
- 3rd place in OWS

You’re listing a lot of box score advanced stats.

He wasn’t top ten in MVP voting that year.

Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, Iverson, Webber, Kidd, Garnett were all better.

Kawhi is a level above Vince.

Vince's box score & and impact stats was better compared to most most of the players you mentioned.

If advanced metrics was valued in 2000s, Vince would have been top 10 in MVP-voting easily.

Hell, AI won MVP despite being inefficient chucker and wasn't top 5 in any of major advanced stats.

Which stats?

The ones you listed are not great stats as they are based on stats, and are estimates from BBREF.

The Raptors record in tandem with the other players having better years, and Vince was rightly 11th in MVP voting.

The point being Kawhi > Vince. I don't think there is much argument for that.

[metafisical]

The main argument is about odds.

So what are the odds that a tanking team will draft the next LeBron James.

Very high. Guaranteed for us. Trust me.

My argument is that, in the modern NBA (player empowerment era), as a not-ideal location for NBA superstars, you have just as good odds at contending for many years and winning a championship the way WE ACTUALLY WON!

By accumulating lottery-drafted players (e.g., DeRozan, JV and Poeltl) and trading them for key players? I hope we can do that again, but first we need draft some players in the lottery. That will require trading for picks that are in the lottery or being in the lottery itself. I hope we can do BOTH!

Losing is the new winning. Winning in the new losing.

[metafisical]

Ok let’s say top 5

Top players that have won a chip in the current era are

LeBron
Curry
KD
Kawhi
AD

LeBron won one title with the team that drafted him. That was exceptional because it wouldn’t have happened if he wasn’t from Ohio but still chalk that up as a success. He still left them. And by the way Cleveland had to win the lottery 3 times in 4 years while LeBron was gone in order to get him back. Odds that are ridiculous and would never happens again.

Kawhi won 1 title with the team that drafted him. He still left them.

KD did not win a title with team that drafted him.

AD did not win a title with the team that drafted him.

So 2 of the above 4 didnot win a title and 2 won one title (the same number as us) and still lost the player just like us.

Steph curry is the one exception.

So the moral of your story is that it is very possible to tank, draft a great player, and watch that player win a championship with us (e.g., LeBron and Curry. Kawhi wasn't a lottery pick...unless i am mistaken?).

There are many ways to win a championship. Let's just try the fun way -- i.e., tanking. Watching our team lose game after game is so satisfying, because I know it will lead them to a championship. I want to see a "2020/21 Tank Champions" hanging from the rafters at Scotiabank Arena.

[JN]

If we would have just built a crappier supporting cast in 2019 and 2020, we would not be stuck in the middle like we are now. Of course we would not have an NBA title either.

[metafisical]

I did the math. Tanking has a 100% chance of success. Every other method (e.g., trading for players) has a 10% chance of success. Why choose the puny 10% chance when tanking will GUARANTEE us a perpetual championship? A dynasty is within our grasp and all it will take is tanking season and possibly next season. We are guaranteed of drafting once a century GOAT players this season and next season -- as long as we tank.

Trust me, I did the math and did the scouting of future draftees. I'm professional.

[JN]

Toronto Raptors is a much, much better team compared how they were in 2000s.

And Peak Vince would easily a superstar level talent. He was a top 5 player during 2000-01 season.

- 5th place among top scorers (27.6 PPG)
- 2nd place in PER
- 1st place in OBPM
- 2nd place in BPM
- 1st place in VORP
- 3rd place in OWS

You’re listing a lot of box score advanced stats.

He wasn’t top ten in MVP voting that year.

Kobe, Shaq, Duncan, Iverson, Webber, Kidd, Garnett were all better.

Kawhi is a level above Vince.

Vince's box score & and impact stats was better compared to most most of the players you mentioned.

If advanced metrics was valued in 2000s, Vince would have been top 10 in MVP-voting easily.

Hell, AI won MVP despite being inefficient chucker and wasn't top 5 in any of major advanced stats.

He was great in the 2001 season. For whatever reasons, he was not the same dominant player in 2002, 2003, 2004.

[720]

Kings then Magic twice. After this it gets HARD. If we lose two of these next three somehow.

[XblueworldX]

[Basketball_Jones]

This team has very little upside. Siakam/Davis/OG were trending well last season but now looks like only OG is panning out and Davis will be on his way out via trade. Siakam is done this season, big enough sample size to conclude that imo. Hopefully he returns to form next year.

[720]

This team has very little upside. Siakam/Davis/OG were trending well last season but now looks like only OG is panning out and Davis will be on his way out via trade. Siakam is done this season, big enough sample size to conclude that imo. Hopefully he returns to form next year.

Something has to be wrong with Siakam. This is not the same player from pre bubble AT ALL. ( he struggled vs good teams back then too but still)

[NinjaBro]

This team has very little upside. Siakam/Davis/OG were trending well last season but now looks like only OG is panning out and Davis will be on his way out via trade. Siakam is done this season, big enough sample size to conclude that imo. Hopefully he returns to form next year.

Something has to be wrong with Siakam. This is not the same player from pre bubble AT ALL. ( he struggled vs good teams back then too but still)

He's been bad for a while. He was declining a bit just before the allstar break.

[720]

This team has very little upside. Siakam/Davis/OG were trending well last season but now looks like only OG is panning out and Davis will be on his way out via trade. Siakam is done this season, big enough sample size to conclude that imo. Hopefully he returns to form next year.

Something has to be wrong with Siakam. This is not the same player from pre bubble AT ALL. ( he struggled vs good teams back then too but still)

He's been bad for a while. He was declining a bit just before the allstar break.

Post Detroit when he got injured (some time around January)

[Inevitable]

I was of the opinion of trading Norm but he’s legit a starting caliber player and borderline all star when he starts. Trade Lowry, gift him the starting spot and hope he stays with us in the off season.