Official Raptors 2012 NBA Draft Thread, Part 12

[neurotik]

It seems to me like everyone on this board is overrating Lamb, while almost every writer / draft "expert" (save for NBADraft.net) seems to be pegging him as a late lottery or mid-1st round pick. Seeing people rank him ahead of Beal, or have him top 5 on their big boards, or saying they hope he "falls" to us has me seriously scratching my head.

He seems like a decent prospect, and I have no real opinion on him one way or another, but I'm really surprised at the discrepancy between how our board rates him and how every expert seems to rate him. Am I missing something here?

You're completely right Wasp. Lamb is too overrated on this board. The reason is because he has the physical tools to be a star in this league and the Raps RealGM board always wants a homerun. Deep down inside almost everyone on this board is praying that Lamb turns out to be the Reggie Miller-type comparison the NBA Draft.net has.

But the odds are he won't. The hardest aspect of a players game to change is his mentality. His intensity, focus, and instincts. It pretty much never happens. Lamb's role in the NBA will be as a complimentary player to a star. A sixth man or a streaky shooter. But he does have potential...

And we can only hope.

[Rhettmatic]

SI.com with an article here on the draft's "hit-the-jackpot" players, which they think are Davis, Robinson, Beal and MKG.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... =hp_t13_a0

[neurotik]

The Raps should be hoping to get Sullinger at 8. Sully will not be a star in the league but he will be a very good player. May even make an all-star team once or twice.

But if he pans out he will be a great asset to have for trade scenarios involving either him or Bargs (assuming that Val pans out).

After Sullinger, based on workouts and interviews, either Lamb, Marshall or Lillard should be our target. I actually wouldn't be surprised if John Henson turn out be a more valuable player than those three.

[neurotik]

SI.com with an article here on the draft's "hit-the-jackpot" players, which they think are Davis, Robinson, Beal and MKG.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... =hp_t13_a0

Rhett, are there any lists or analysis of the "Gambles" and the "Safe Plays"?

[fredericklove]

SI.com with an article here on the draft's "hit-the-jackpot" players, which they think are Davis, Robinson, Beal and MKG.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2012/w ... =hp_t13_a0

Gotta love watching MKG in that workout, dude trains hard, plays hard and probably hums hard. I'm curious to the gambles and the safe play. PJ3, Drummond and Lillard have got to be in the gambles, Lamb too, or also you can say he's in the safe play but who knows. Marshall and Sully should be in the safe play, what you see of Sully is what you get, a 15/10 type of double double every night and Marshall will be a safe bench to starter role, one that provides the assists etc. Also TJ and Henson should be in the gambles I think. Can't wait to see the rest of the article soon.

[Dr Positivity]

You're right, most people don't rank him ahead of Beal, but in the past few pages people have ranked him ahead of the likes of TRob, MKG, and Drummond which is pretty ridiculous.

Look, I like Lamb and wouldn't be unhappy if we drafted him, but pretending like he's clearly better than the likes of Sullinger, PJ3, Marshall, Lillard, etc. is what I don't understand—and you, with the Lamb signature, are exactly who I'm talking about.

Call me crazy, but I tend to take the word of professional scouts, writers and insiders over anonymous people on RealGM. That's where I get my facts from, bro.

Pro scouts and writers have been wrong like... a lot. For example David Kahn in Minny has basically drafted by the consensus order every year. Rubio/Flynn, Wes Johnson, and Derrick Williams were ranked right where he took them. And it's worked out horrendously. Players fall in the draft according to how old they are, where they played, or where they put up dominant stats, without it being considered why each of those things should matter or not.

I'm not saying it's a guarantee Lamb is better than TRob, MKG and Drummond - But I personally see him as the more talented player because in terms of offense it's not even close. Lamb can shoot, handle, drive and has an extremely great feel for perimeter creation and offense. The other players are all about power in their scoring. They have a chance to be better defense/rebounding players but personally I'm not sold on drafting prospects for D and rebounding. There are a lot of great offensive players in the league who also have the athletic talent to play D and rebound. When a player doesn't have starting caliber offensive talent 80-90% of the time he doesn't start.

Also we can agree Chad Ford's list is what the "consensus" order comes down to right. Well it's absolutely incredible how bad Ford is at judging prospects. How bad? I was rereading old ESPN articles the other day and in terms of best player in the draft he liked Jay Williams in 02, Okafor in 04, Marvin in 05, Tyrus in 06, Oden in 07, and Beasley in 08. I didn't find a direct quote of him saying Darko over Lebron in 03 but he gave Detroit an A+ and Cleveland an A- in the grades. How do you mess up evaluating who the #1 pick is 7 years in a row without being such a bad talent judge that you become a contrarian indictaor?

[Steely Reserve]

Its that time of the year again -- where people who have no idea what they're talking about, repeat what they read on the internet and hear on ESPN, only to then try to call out others who have done their own research and player evaluation.

Same. Thing. Every. Year.

As I've stated in the Draft Forum, the Beal hype is a joke. Robinson in the top 5 is another joke. MKG has the most upside in this draft. Need a Center? Ummm, Myers Leonard, anyone?? And Perry Jones (should be a top 3 pick) will get a GM or two fired after Portland drafts him and Kendall Marshall with their two lottery picks.

Marshall
Matthews
Perry 'F*cking' Jones III
Aldridge
Przybilla

OMFG OMFG OMFG (if only the Cavs had the balls to draft PJII. Imagine a Kyrie/PJII combo??)

My Big Board will be coming as soon as the lottery takes place.

[Marlo Stanfield]

Its that time of the year again -- where people who have no idea what they're talking about, repeat what they read on the internet and hear on ESPN, only to then try to call out others who have done their own research and player evaluation.

Same. Thing. Every. Year.

As I've stated in the Draft Forum, the Beal hype is a joke. Robinson in the top 5 is another joke. MKG has the most upside in this draft. Need a Center? Ummm, Myers Leonard, anyone?? And Perry Jones (should be a top 3 pick) will get a GM or two fired after Portland drafts him and Kendall Marshall with their two lottery picks.

Marshall
Matthews
Perry 'F*cking' Jones III
Aldridge
Przybilla

OMFG OMFG OMFG (if only the Cavs had the balls to draft PJII. Imagine a Kyrie/PJII combo??)

My Big Board will be coming as soon as the lottery takes place.

Just don't...

[fredericklove]

Its that time of the year again -- where people who have no idea what they're talking about, repeat what they read on the internet and hear on ESPN, only to then try to call out others who have done their own research and player evaluation.

Same. Thing. Every. Year.

As I've stated in the Draft Forum, the Beal hype is a joke. Robinson in the top 5 is another joke. MKG has the most upside in this draft. Need a Center? Ummm, Myers Leonard, anyone?? And Perry Jones (should be a top 3 pick) will get a GM or two fired after Portland drafts him and Kendall Marshall with their two lottery picks.

Marshall
Matthews
Perry 'F*cking' Jones III
Aldridge
Przybilla

OMFG OMFG OMFG (if only the Cavs had the balls to draft PJII. Imagine a Kyrie/PJII combo??)

My Big Board will be coming as soon as the lottery takes place.

Just don't...

oh no, look who's back

[Dr Positivity]

Also, on the topic of the Wasp and Steely posts, I do find it (slightly amusing) when people talk with certainty about prospects and how they should be ranked, to me all you need to look at is the unpredictability of draft results after the first few picks, to know how wrong the consensus opinions can be right now and that nobody should be talking about them as untouchable. And that there seems to a negative correlation, the more I trust someone's posts and analysis regarding the draft, the less of an air of certainty or chest puffing they have about whether they are right - and the posters who's rationale I trust the least, seem to be the most certain that their order has to be right. It's probably because the rational arguments that lead to (IMO) the most trustworthy posts correlates well with someone rationally realizing there is no reason to be certain about what are frankly guesses. While if someone doesn't have the thought process to look at prospects in a real argument friendly way, they probably don't have the thought process to consider why their opinions could be wrong, either

[Undefeated]

You're completely right Wasp. Lamb is too overrated on this board. The reason is because he has the physical tools to be a star in this league and the Raps RealGM board always wants a homerun. Deep down inside almost everyone on this board is praying that Lamb turns out to be the Reggie Miller-type comparison the NBA Draft.net has.

But the odds are he won't. The hardest aspect of a players game to change is his mentality. His intensity, focus, and instincts. It pretty much never happens. Lamb's role in the NBA will be as a complimentary player to a star. A sixth man or a streaky shooter. But he does have potential...

And we can only hope.

No one is overrating Jeremy Lamb here. More than anything else, it's more likely that Lamb is being underrated based on where he's currently projected to get drafted according to these mock drafts. The physical tools that Lamb possesses like his 7-foot-2 wingspan is just the cherry on top of his smooth, polished offensive game and potential. No one's drafting Lamb on his physical tools alone. You can't tell me with a straight face that Lamb isn't almost a complete offensive player. Deadeye shooter from mid-range and deep, savvy playmaker, crisp, tight handles, and has a Hardaway front change with the ability to put the ball on the deck and get to the rim for a uncontested finger roll above the rim or a feathery floater running down the middle. You won't get much more of a complete offensive wing from this draft than Jeremy Lamb as it stands.

I find it weird that we're harping on Lamb's mentality when it was never brought up as a concern during UConn's championship run. How much of his change in mentality has to do with UConn's poor season with the suspension of Ryan Boatright early and mid-season, or the absence of Jim Calhoun away from the sidelines and practice? Something has got to give here, and it sure isn't Lamb's "laid back attitude" that these experts are pinpointing towards. A guy with a laid back attitude wouldn't go out and drop 25+ points 5 times this season or average 17.7 ppg while playing with two other ball hogs.

[OAKLEY_2]

Its that time of the year again -- where people who have no idea what they're talking about, repeat what they read on the internet and hear on ESPN, only to then try to call out others who have done their own research and player evaluation.

Same. Thing. Every. Year.

You are probably right that player evaluation by some fans can be a little thin but you can sort of tell where the bust potential is based on past drafts. Players with weight issues have a tendency to bust as do bigs that were recruited for size but have little athletic ability. What did Orton have in college a 3 point per game average and the dude went in the first round! Of course that pick relative to Hoffa looked not so risky. This board was adamant that Morrison could be a huge bust. That proves to me many on here have a good idea where there is bust potential. The year Gay was drafted many were saying he was clearly BPA in that draft. Many scouts and GMs didn't agree but surprise fans on here were right.

[Wasp]

Also, on the topic of the Wasp and Steely posts, I do find it (slightly amusing) when people talk with certainty about prospects and how they should be ranked, to me all you need to look at is the unpredictability of draft results after the first few picks, to know how wrong the consensus opinions can be right now and that nobody should be talking about them as untouchable. And that there seems to a negative correlation, the more I trust someone's posts and analysis regarding the draft, the less of an air of certainty or chest puffing they have about whether they are right - and the posters who's rationale I trust the least, seem to be the most certain that their order has to be right. It's probably because the rational arguments that lead to (IMO) the most trustworthy posts correlates well with someone rationally realizing there is no reason to be certain about what are frankly guesses. While if someone doesn't have the thought process to look at prospects in a real argument friendly way, they probably don't have the thought process to consider why their opinions could be wrong, either

All I was saying was that there seems to be a larger than normal discrepancy between Lamb's ranking amongst media outlets, which you can choose to trust or not, and how he seems to be ranked on this board. I wasn't saying that Lamb is a bad prospect, or that people ranking him high were wrong, or that media mocks are always correct, I was just pointing out that it was odd.

After reading some of the reasoning behind why people like Lamb so much, I can understand why some people rank him higher than the other prospects slated to go around our pick, which is exactly why I brought it up.

[DarrylFlicking]

Updated DX mock. 1st in weeks.
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2012/

[CoachJReturns]

For the guys available at 8 I rank Lamb pretty highly, but overall there's a handful of guys I'd prefer. None of them will be available at 8th though. I'd take Davis(obviously), Robinson, Beal and even Drummond over him. Robinson because he'd be the best reason to finally get rid of Bargs, Beal because he's a guard with an aggressive mentality which our wings lack and Drummond because his trade value could be very very high. I like Lamb, but only because of where we will most likely be drafting from. If we were in the top 5 it'd be a different story.

[neurotik]

You're completely right Wasp. Lamb is too overrated on this board. The reason is because he has the physical tools to be a star in this league and the Raps RealGM board always wants a homerun. Deep down inside almost everyone on this board is praying that Lamb turns out to be the Reggie Miller-type comparison the NBA Draft.net has.

But the odds are he won't. The hardest aspect of a players game to change is his mentality. His intensity, focus, and instincts. It pretty much never happens. Lamb's role in the NBA will be as a complimentary player to a star. A sixth man or a streaky shooter. But he does have potential...

And we can only hope.

No one is overrating Jeremy Lamb here. More than anything else, it's more likely that Lamb is being underrated based on where he's currently projected to get drafted according to these mock drafts. The physical tools that Lamb possesses like his 7-foot-2 wingspan is just the cherry on top of his smooth, polished offensive game and potential. No one's drafting Lamb on his physical tools alone. You can't tell me with a straight face that Lamb isn't almost a complete offensive player. Deadeye shooter from mid-range and deep, savvy playmaker, crisp, tight handles, and has a Hardaway front change with the ability to put the ball on the deck and get to the rim for a uncontested finger roll above the rim or a feathery floater running down the middle. You won't get much more of a complete offensive wing from this draft than Jeremy Lamb as it stands.

I find it weird that we're harping on Lamb's mentality when it was never brought up as a concern during UConn's championship run. How much of his change in mentality has to do with UConn's poor season with the suspension of Ryan Boatright early and mid-season, or the absence of Jim Calhoun away from the sidelines and practice? Something has got to give here, and it sure isn't Lamb's "laid back attitude" that these experts are pinpointing towards. A guy with a laid back attitude wouldn't go out and drop 25+ points 5 times this season or average 17.7 ppg while playing with two other ball hogs.

All I said was that he hasn't shown the focus and killer instinct to be a primary scoring option. During the championship run Kemba was the man and Lamb was the secondary scorer. IMO that is his MOST LIKELY role in the NBA (or a sixth man).

And he is not being underrated, most mock drafts don't even have him as a top ten prospect.

[Alfred]

I'm still flabbergasted that Portland was able to get a top 10 pick for Gerald Wallace.

[neurotik]

I said before and I'll say it again, if Davis, MKG, Beal, TRob, Barnes, and Drummond are off the board, then Sullinger is the best prospect.

After that I see it as Marshall, Lillard. Lamb, Henson.

[Dr Positivity]

My certainty that we're drafting Lamb or Sullinger if we stay at #8 is 70%+. It just seems natural that if the players you listed are taken that BC gets one of those 2.

[neurotik]

My certainty that we're drafting Lamb or Sullinger if we stay at #8 is 70%+. It just seems natural that if the players you listed are taken that BC gets one of those 2.

I agree. Unless BC is blown away by a player in the workouts/combines, he is taking Sullinger or Lamb. I think he wants Nash for the PG spot next yr, so Marshall or Lillard would have to wow him.