2023 Draft Discussion Part III

[S.W.A.N]

I’m not enamoured by him, but DaRon Holmes is a guy I can see our FO considering

As an undrafted free agent?

[BoyzNTheHood]

I’m not enamoured by him, but DaRon Holmes is a guy I can see our FO considering

As an undrafted free agent?

[dozo]

Watch on YouTube

Bronny throwing it down.

[grant101]

I’m not enamoured by him, but DaRon Holmes is a guy I can see our FO considering

As an undrafted free agent?

Can't imagine Holmes goes undrafted. Would be a major mistake. I wouldn't take him mid-first, but he's super solid and I bet he has a better career than a large number of the guys taken ahead of him.

[WuTang_CMB]

Watch on YouTube

[BoyzNTheHood]

As an undrafted free agent?

Can't imagine Holmes goes undrafted. Would be a major mistake. I wouldn't take him mid-first, but he's super solid and I bet he has a better career than a large number of the guys taken ahead of him.

Yeah, zero chance he goes undrafted unless something major happens. He might even go in the first depending on if a GM thinks he has the tools to be a defensive monster with offensive potential.

[Rapsfan07]

I think we need to put together common themes in the Raptors drafting process to gauge who would meet the criteria that they covet.

Physical themes:
Athleticism
Size
Length

Character themes:
Winning mentality
Team oriented
Hard worker

Stat themes:
This is where I need the forum to help me out. Since Masai came onboard what are the common stats we should be looking for?

BPM> 8. Scottie was 7.9, but all the other FRP Raptors were > 8. DBPM > 2.5.

Dan Tolzman spoke about rebounding for position as an indicator of competitiveness.

Thanks for this! Need to start putting a profile together of the prospects in the draft who would match these themes the best.

There aren't many...especially in the first round.

Off the top of my head, I can tell you Miller, Walker, Sasser I believe are the only ones who fit this criteria.

It's worth noting that I find high BPM guys are often older...seniors or juniors.

Podz is worth mentioning as well but I believe TJD has the highest BPM in the draft. He's sitting at a whopping 16.

It's also worth noting that Flynn had a 11.6 BPM his draft year so there's also that.

[Rapsfan07]

Watch on YouTube

I'm still holding our hope for Cason Wallace. I think he's going to be a stud at the next level.

But if you land 14-16 and neither of those guys are there (VERY unlikely that they would be) then we should be looking to move back in the draft.

Brooklyn has #20 & #22
Pacers have #26 & #29
Jazz have #16 & #27

Lots of options out there to pick up some much needed depth. If we go this route, I would consider the following prospects in this order:

Kobe Bufkin
Colby Jones
Brandin Podziemski
Leonard Miller
Bilal Coulibaly

Adding two of the three guards would go a long away to helping our guard depth, especially since there's no guarantee FVV and Trent are coming back. If an Anunoby trade is in play, things could get even more interesting. But there really should be no way we come back from this draft without something valuable.

[ArthurVandelay]

Watch on YouTube

I stopped watching at the 5:30 mark. Once I realized he very, very rarely went left and he only finished with his left hand once, I had enough.

Might be something I could overlook with a freshman but he’s a junior.

[WuTang_CMB]

Watch on YouTube

I stopped watching at the 5:30 mark. Once I realized he very, very rarely went left and he only finished with his left hand once, I had enough.

Might be something I could overlook with a freshman but he’s a junior.

Doesn’t bother me much. Love how he gets to his spots and he defends well.

[Psubs]

How about dem Canes!

https://www.yardbarker.com/college_basketball/articles/jordan_millers_historic_performance_lifts_miami_to_first_final_four/s1_13132_38626095

Does Jordan Miller get snapped up at the end of the 2nd round?

I think Pack and Poplar come back and I hope we can invite Wong and Miller to camp at UDFA's!!!

[BoyzNTheHood]

How about dem Canes!

https://www.yardbarker.com/college_basketball/articles/jordan_millers_historic_performance_lifts_miami_to_first_final_four/s1_13132_38626095

Does Jordan Miller get snapped up at the end of the 2nd round?

I think Pack and Poplar come back and I hope we can invite Wong and Miller to camp at UDFA's!!!

Don’t forget about Norchad. He’s a beast

[ATLTimekeeper]

I'm not even that big on offensive efficiency in the NBA, but when you have poor efficiency in college and poor defensive BPM that seems like a rough combo.

I actually think you can throw out offensive efficiency in some cases. I mean, if you have low usage and low volume shots and the efficiency is not great, I would worry. My thing with college is that guys often have outsized roles that look bad at first glance.

Anthony Edwards had a 0.5 DBPM and shot 29% from three on 294 shots. He was a straight chucker, but he has developed into a good shooter and an underrated defender. Obviously he is a freak athlete that was hard to ignore.

Jaden Ivey had a 1 DBPM shot worse than George and made less threes and he was a sophomore in his draft year. His skill was his blazing speed on ball, but he was nothing special in college other than scoring at the rim yet he was high lottery. I honestly think he went so high because people did not want to miss out on the next Ja Morant. Ja Morant himself had a DBPM under 2.

You could always end up with a Cam Thomas type, who was inefficient in college and a negative defender, but he has shown flashes as a scorer in the NBA. He had a month in February where he peaked at 24 PPG and he is still only 21YO. Cole Anthony also had a very similar freshman year.

I'm not arguing that George won't make it as an NBA player, but the dye is almost certainly cast in terms of overall impact. Edwards is an average efficiency player and a weak defender at 21. Morant is a weak defender. If you're below 1.5 in your draft year, it's almost certain you will be a weak defender. In order to compensate you need to be a highly productive offensive player (think Dame, Ice Trae, Morant). So for the Raptors it's an easy pass on George. Too warty, not enough upside. I wouldn't want a Cam Thomas-type with a mid 1st, either. What does he do for the Nets?

[ATLTimekeeper]

BPM> 8. Scottie was 7.9, but all the other FRP Raptors were > 8. DBPM > 2.5.

Dan Tolzman spoke about rebounding for position as an indicator of competitiveness.

Thanks for this! Need to start putting a profile together of the prospects in the draft who would match these themes the best.

There aren't many...especially in the first round.

Off the top of my head, I can tell you Miller, Walker, Sasser I believe are the only ones who fit this criteria.

It's worth noting that I find high BPM guys are often older...seniors or juniors.

Podz is worth mentioning as well but I believe TJD has the highest BPM in the draft. He's sitting at a whopping 16.

It's also worth noting that Flynn had a 11.6 BPM his draft year so there's also that.

Again, high BPM isn't an indication of future success. It's an indication that you're a really good college basketball player, and Flynn was. There are going to be high BPM players every year in college. It's just waayyyyy more likely that you're going to get a star or successful player with a higher BPM than a mediocre to low one. So the cut off of 8 works just fine for me (and apparently the Raptors). They've deviated in the 2nd round from this, but the 2.5 DBPM has been mostly there.

Trayce is absolutely a first round talent. Should go late lottery. Sasser and Edey (and Timme) are probably not going to supply the Raptors with physical profiles they're looking for.

Podziemski fits
Jaylen Clarke would have fit, depends on his health
I think Johnell Davis will jump on NBA radars.

The other guys that seem to be consistently in mocks that qualify are Jacquez, Pickett, Tubelis, Clowney.

Not a lot in the NCAA. That's why I think the Raptors will be looking at some of these Ignite/International prospects.

[HumbleRen]

[Rapsfan07]

Thanks for this! Need to start putting a profile together of the prospects in the draft who would match these themes the best.

There aren't many...especially in the first round.

Off the top of my head, I can tell you Miller, Walker, Sasser I believe are the only ones who fit this criteria.

It's worth noting that I find high BPM guys are often older...seniors or juniors.

Podz is worth mentioning as well but I believe TJD has the highest BPM in the draft. He's sitting at a whopping 16.

It's also worth noting that Flynn had a 11.6 BPM his draft year so there's also that.

Again, high BPM isn't an indication of future success. It's an indication that you're a really good college basketball player, and Flynn was. There are going to be high BPM players every year in college. It's just waayyyyy more likely that you're going to get a star or successful player with a higher BPM than a mediocre to low one. So the cut off of 8 works just fine for me (and apparently the Raptors). They've deviated in the 2nd round from this, but the 2.5 DBPM has been mostly there.

Trayce is absolutely a first round talent. Should go late lottery. Sasser and Edey (and Timme) are probably not going to supply the Raptors with physical profiles they're looking for.

Podziemski fits
Jaylen Clarke would have fit, depends on his health
I think Johnell Davis will jump on NBA radars.

The other guys that seem to be consistently in mocks that qualify are Jacquez, Pickett, Tubelis, Clowney.

Not a lot in the NCAA. That's why I think the Raptors will be looking at some of these Ignite/International prospects.

I agree that Trace is a first round talent, 100%. I'd be very, very surprised if he ends up in the second round. However he is quite a bit older than most in the draft and doesn't exactly fit in the "modern NBA" as a big who doesn't shoot. I do think he could be a less explosive Bam Adebayo type though and that is definitely worth a lotto pick for sure.

Not sure about the Ignite prospects this year. I'm still sold on Scoot, Cissoko and Miller do have a chance to become something. I'm not sure what though but I do like them. Just don't think either have star potential.

[Rapsfan07]

We're going to need a lose a few games here down the stretch if we want Wallace. I'm fairly certain he's gone by 14, which is where we sit at the moment.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I agree that Trace is a first round talent, 100%. I'd be very, very surprised if he ends up in the second round. However he is quite a bit older than most in the draft and doesn't exactly fit in the "modern NBA" as a big who doesn't shoot. I do think he could be a less explosive Bam Adebayo type though and that is definitely worth a lotto pick for sure.

I think there are plenty of non-shooting bigs in this "modern NBA." It's overstated how many can actually shoot (and are actually guarded). Brandon Clarke slid for no good reason.

[HumbleRen]

We're going to need a lose a few games here down the stretch if we want Wallace. I'm fairly certain he's gone by 14, which is were we sit at the moment.

Agreed.

What a bummer man lol, if you told me at the start of the season that we’d be out of the playoff picture, not be over .500 and still not have a top 10 pick .. I’d slap you for trolling me.

[OakleyDokely]

It's hard to find stats on the Thompson twins. On the overtime elite site they don't list any shooting %s at all, unless I missed something.

You're basically going off hope with them because the competition they're facing is garbage.