Tank World Order

[bluerap23]

So you guys are hoping that within next fours years (lengths of Siakams and FVV contracts) a superstar will appear on a market that will be disgruntled and we will be ready to pounce and get him. I'm sorry but l don't think that's likely to happen.

It's already happened like twice in the last 3 seasons. Are you hoping that LeBron is in this draft? (Or, to lower the bar, Kawhi or Harden?), also unlikely. This line of argument just ends up being antagonistic, and doesn't really help you convince anyone.

What I've gathered from following the conversations here is that this is not Tank World Order, but Rebuild When Convenient World Order. It's diluted into strategizing ways to move forward, which is pretty normal around here. The team has loads of time left to figure out if they can be a better than average team this year. And then they have capspace and all their picks. The basic argument here is that they absolutely need someone high in this draft, and then some extra picks. It's a complete unknown to everyone whether that may be the case. The year the Raptors tanked and took JV, the best players were taken well behind that pick. The year they tanked and drafted Ross, well, we could have been the New Orleans Pelicans or Washington Wizards of the last 7 years. I'd argue that until Masai and Bobby start making idiotic moves on the regular like BC did, that we may as well trust their own methodology and see what comes of it. When the bad moves happen, they tend to be obvious.

You mean trust the front office that built a perennial 50 win team and won a championship.

Now that is a noval idea.

[KL78192020]

It's already happened like twice in the last 3 seasons. Are you hoping that LeBron is in this draft? (Or, to lower the bar, Kawhi or Harden?), also unlikely. This line of argument just ends up being antagonistic, and doesn't really help you convince anyone.

What I've gathered from following the conversations here is that this is not Tank World Order, but Rebuild When Convenient World Order. It's diluted into strategizing ways to move forward, which is pretty normal around here. The team has loads of time left to figure out if they can be a better than average team this year. And then they have capspace and all their picks. The basic argument here is that they absolutely need someone high in this draft, and then some extra picks. It's a complete unknown to everyone whether that may be the case. The year the Raptors tanked and took JV, the best players were taken well behind that pick. The year they tanked and drafted Ross, well, we could have been the New Orleans Pelicans or Washington Wizards of the last 7 years. I'd argue that until Masai and Bobby start making idiotic moves on the regular like BC did, that we may as well trust their own methodology and see what comes of it. When the bad moves happen, they tend to be obvious.

Giannis and Harden are gone. So Beal is out there, Siakam plus 3 first round picks/3 swaps a good deal? thats probably the price to pay. Does that make the Raptors a championship team again? No one else is really on the horizon any time soon.

I'm not suggesting any trades at the moment. It's just arguing against the notion that these players are impossible to come by. It seems to be the most common refrain against any kind of status quo argument. No one else on the horizon? Like, Beal has been talking about how he wants to stay for years. Harden just became available because Morey ducked out. If you can count on anything, it's that NBA stars will be asking to be moved. So, the Raptors can either attempt to keep at it, and eventually worm their way into a position where it's a good decision to "go for it," or they can tank it out and invite that uncertainty. I know what I'd rather watch.

The one star the Raptors got from a trade, couldn't wait to leave the second he got a chance. If Harden was traded here he would be gone in 2 years. Fact is no one wants to come here, and the minute their contract is up they will leave. At least with drafted players you can have 8/9 years of control.

[ATLTimekeeper]

The one star the Raptors got from a trade, couldn't wait to leave the second he got a chance. If Harden was traded here he would be gone in 2 years. Fact is no one wants to come here, and the minute their contract is up they will leave. At least with drafted players you can have 8/9 years of control.

I mean, if you can't guarantee you draft and MVP level player than I don't see what the comparison is. With Harden or Kawhi, you know what they're capable of. Of course, it'd be amazing to draft an MVP level candidate. I wouldn't know how to go about doing that other than finishing bottom 3 in the year there was a no doubt future MVP candidate in the draft, and then hoping that my 14% odds come through.

[MixxSRC]

So you guys are hoping that within next fours years (lengths of Siakams and FVV contracts) a superstar will appear on a market that will be disgruntled and we will be ready to pounce and get him. I'm sorry but l don't think that's likely to happen.

It's already happened like twice in the last 3 seasons. Are you hoping that LeBron is in this draft? (Or, to lower the bar, Kawhi or Harden?), also unlikely. This line of argument just ends up being antagonistic, and doesn't really help you convince anyone.

What I've gathered from following the conversations here is that this is not Tank World Order, but Rebuild When Convenient World Order. It's diluted into strategizing ways to move forward, which is pretty normal around here. The team has loads of time left to figure out if they can be a better than average team this year. And then they have capspace and all their picks. The basic argument here is that they absolutely need someone high in this draft, and then some extra picks. It's a complete unknown to everyone whether that may be the case. The year the Raptors tanked and took JV, the best players were taken well behind that pick. The year they tanked and drafted Ross, well, we could have been the New Orleans Pelicans or Washington Wizards of the last 7 years. I'd argue that until Masai and Bobby start making idiotic moves on the regular like BC did, that we may as well trust their own methodology and see what comes of it. When the bad moves happen, they tend to be obvious.

You mean trust the front office that built a perennial 50 win team and won a championship.

Now that is a noval idea.

Again Masai is not against tanking and tried to do it when he tried to trade Lowry. Trade was done. Dolan cancelled it last minute. So Masai is not "above" tanking

[KrazyP]

Question 1 - Who is an existing star who will be available because he wants to be traded?

Question 2 - Which star Raptors can get in free agency?

Can you answer my questions please and then I will attempt to answer yours.

Sources:

https://threesandlayups.com/2019/05/15/how-likely-is-each-draft-pick-to-someday-make-an-all-star-team/

https://towardsdatascience.com/what-are-the-odds-a-statistical-analysis-of-tanking-in-the-nba-2c5fe228cd67

Now time to put our critical thinking hats on.

The probability of an all-star increases the higher you pick. Nobody is disputing this. That said, there are issues with the data provided.

Back in the 90s, players were more likely to stay in college for multiple years. As a result, teams selected from a group of more mature, developed players making it easier to pick the stars from the scrubs. Players declare early today making the draft more of a crapshoot.

Look at the 2020 draft that just passed, 9 out of the top 10 picks were 19-20 yrs old! Its extemely difficult to predict how players this young will develop regardless of natural talent level....look at Andrew Wiggins as an example.

Point is - 90s data is almost irrelvant today....the draft has changed, the league has changed.

Here's a quick and dirty analysis I just did of the draft from 2000-2018.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AnvHDtda71NBgjc3GtHpBA6W-4wF?e=X9jWtr

Explanation:

- I've graded every player on a scale of 1 to 6. These grades are from memory but I think fairly accurate. I was lenient with handing out all-star grades...i.e. guys like Mike Conley, CJ McCollum, Colin Sexton, Jaylen Brown have not made an all-star team (yet?) but I gave them the benefit of the doubt.

6-MVP
5- All-Star
4 - Starter
3 - Bench
2 - Journey Man
1 - Scrub/Trash

- I've also assigned level of tanking score from 1-10 for each pick. #1 picks score 10. #10 picks score 1.

Observations:

The average player picked in top 10 scored a 3.3....so somewhere between bench player and starter. i.e. Normal Powell level.

The average player picked in the top 5 scored a 3.7....close to an average starter....i.e. Fred VanVleet level.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in top 10 is roughly 26.3%.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in the top 5 is roughly 36.8%. Put in other terms, this is a 63.2% failure rate unless you think gutting your team to tank and ending up with Tristan Thompson or worse is a success.

The teams that tanked the hardest and collected the most lottery "assets" from 2000-2018.
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Sacremento
Charlotte

The Teams that tanked the least from 2000-2018.
Miami
Houston
Dallas
Indiana
San Antonio

Which set of franchises above have been better run?

Comments:

In order to tank to be a top 5 tankster team, you have to be really, really bad. I think the Raps have been decent for so long that a lot of fans have forgetten what a top 5 tankster team actually looks like.

The last time the Raps landed a top 5 pick - Andrei Bargnani was their 1st option and 30 yr old Jose Calderon was their best player. In order to get to that level.....you have to get rid of at least 2 of Lowry/VanVleet/Siakam/Nurse with no immediate return (I think maybe even 3). Ujiri/Webster will not do this.

[KL78192020]

The one star the Raptors got from a trade, couldn't wait to leave the second he got a chance. If Harden was traded here he would be gone in 2 years. Fact is no one wants to come here, and the minute their contract is up they will leave. At least with drafted players you can have 8/9 years of control.

I mean, if you can't guarantee you draft and MVP level player than I don't see what the comparison is. With Harden or Kawhi, you know what they're capable of. Of course, it'd be amazing to draft an MVP level candidate. I wouldn't know how to go about doing that other than finishing bottom 3 in the year there was a no doubt future MVP candidate in the draft, and then hoping that my 14% odds come through.

Yea the draft lottery is no guarantee, I agree. Would you have traded for Harden for the same assets plus Siakam, knowing he would leave in 2 years?

[Steelo Green]

Can you answer my questions please and then I will attempt to answer yours.

Sources:

https://threesandlayups.com/2019/05/15/how-likely-is-each-draft-pick-to-someday-make-an-all-star-team/

https://towardsdatascience.com/what-are-the-odds-a-statistical-analysis-of-tanking-in-the-nba-2c5fe228cd67

Now time to put our critical thinking hats on.

The probability of an all-star increases the higher you pick. Nobody is disputing this. That said, there are issues with the data provided.

Back in the 90s, players were more likely to stay in college for multiple years. As a result, teams selected from a group of more mature, developed players making it easier to pick the stars from the scrubs. Players declare early today making the draft more of a crapshoot.

Look at the 2020 draft that just passed, 9 out of the top 10 picks were 19-20 yrs old! Its extemely difficult to predict how players this young will develop regardless of natural talent level....look at Andrew Wiggins as an example.

Point is - 90s data is almost irrelvant today....the draft has changed, the league has changed.

Here's a quick and dirty analysis I just did of the draft from 2000-2018.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AnvHDtda71NBgjc3GtHpBA6W-4wF?e=X9jWtr

Explanation:

- I've graded every player on a scale of 1 to 6. These grades are from memory but I think fairly accurate. I was lenient with handing out all-star grades...i.e. guys like Mike Conley, CJ McCollum, Colin Sexton, Jaylen Brown have not made an all-star team (yet?) but I gave them the benefit of the doubt.

6-MVP
5- All-Star
4 - Starter
3 - Bench
2 - Journey Man
1 - Scrub/Trash

- I've also assigned level of tanking score from 1-10 for each pick. #1 picks score 10. #10 picks score 1.

Observations:

The average player picked in top 10 scored a 3.3....so somewhere between bench player and starter. i.e. Normal Powell level.

The average player picked in the top 5 scored a 3.7....close to an average starter....i.e. Fred VanVleet level.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in top 10 is roughly 26.3%.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in the top 5 is roughly 36.8%. Put in other terms, this is a 63.2% failure rate unless you think gutting your team to tank and ending up with Tristan Thompson or worse is a success.

The teams that tanked the hardest and collected the most lottery "assets" from 2000-2018.
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Sacremento
Charlotte

The Teams that tanked the least from 2000-2018.
Miami
Houston
Dallas
Indiana
San Antonio

Which set of franchises above have better run?

Comments:

In order to tank to be a top 5 tankster team, you have to be really, really bad. I think the Raps have been decent for so long that a lot of fans have forgetten what a top 5 tankster team actually looks like.

The last time the Raps landed a top 5 pick - Andrei Bargnani was their 1st option and 30 yr old Jose Calderon was their best player. In order to get to that level.....you have to get rid of at least 2 of Lowry/VanVleet/Siakam/Nurse with no immediate return (I think maybe even 3). Ujiri/Webster will not do this.

Why Andrew Wiggins is the standard for first overall picks just because the one year the entire forum was in tank mode, he happened to be the consensus will always defeat me.

The five first overall picks before Bennett and Wiggins were all all-stars, two with an NBA title, on in Rose who injuries ruined a what could have been career (and he won MVP).

The two after again: KAT and Simmons are also all-stars and Simmons an all NBA defender as well.

Fultz is an odd one due to his injury, Ayton jury is still out, Zion who has only played a hand full of games and still looked great and was almost the ROY, and Edwards this season.

Not being an all-star or all NBA is the exception for most first overall picks.

Then again - why we limit it to first overall beats me, it’s just yes first overall is usually the best talent in the draft pre draft more often than not, but rounding out the top 5-10 and you rarely get big ticket players outside of there.

Kawhi and Giannis we are making a standard when for the two of them there are twenty all NBA players or all-stars who were all drafted in the top 10.

I don’t think anyone is saying to guy this entire team - it’s been reiterated a few times.

But they have said this teams not very good and at best is first round fodder, that is if they sneak in.

The schedule gets tough and they could be a few games below 500 by February’s end.

The realty is though that there’s no one who should be untouchable if the right deal is on the table.

OG is solid, happy to have him with his deal, but if the right deal is there, you have to consider it all.

Pascal honestly, his value is plummeting so fast that we have no choice but to keep him and hope his value increases.

Fred’s raw stats look nice but he is less efficient than last year.

Everything should be open for discussion. We could very well be a 10 seed by years end without tanking, and none of the guys I listed are real game changers.

I and most thought Pascal was at worst a 2-3 but he just seems like a figured out guy who has a blip of success not far from a Josh Smith, Roy Hibbert, Josh Howard. I don’t want to say it - I don’t think anyone does. But this fall off is kind of shocking.

If you really break it down this team is mediocre and was carried by Kyle at the helm. Without him and I think it’s a 30-40 win team depending on injuries.

[bluerap23]

It's already happened like twice in the last 3 seasons. Are you hoping that LeBron is in this draft? (Or, to lower the bar, Kawhi or Harden?), also unlikely. This line of argument just ends up being antagonistic, and doesn't really help you convince anyone.

What I've gathered from following the conversations here is that this is not Tank World Order, but Rebuild When Convenient World Order. It's diluted into strategizing ways to move forward, which is pretty normal around here. The team has loads of time left to figure out if they can be a better than average team this year. And then they have capspace and all their picks. The basic argument here is that they absolutely need someone high in this draft, and then some extra picks. It's a complete unknown to everyone whether that may be the case. The year the Raptors tanked and took JV, the best players were taken well behind that pick. The year they tanked and drafted Ross, well, we could have been the New Orleans Pelicans or Washington Wizards of the last 7 years. I'd argue that until Masai and Bobby start making idiotic moves on the regular like BC did, that we may as well trust their own methodology and see what comes of it. When the bad moves happen, they tend to be obvious.

You mean trust the front office that built a perennial 50 win team and won a championship.

Now that is a noval idea.

Again Masai is not against tanking and tried to do it when he tried to trade Lowry. Trade was done. Dolan cancelled it last minute. So Masai is not "above" tanking

Oh how I love when people pretend their opinion is fact.

Does trading Lowry mean he was going to tank? What is your definition of tank?

What happened in Denver?

Masai has never tanked. Your belief that he was going to tank is only your belief.

[artsncrafts]

Its too late, 13 game Boucher single handedly landed us in the 14/15 range

[MixxSRC]

You mean trust the front office that built a perennial 50 win team and won a championship.

Now that is a noval idea.

Again Masai is not against tanking and tried to do it when he tried to trade Lowry. Trade was done. Dolan cancelled it last minute. So Masai is not "above" tanking

Oh how I love when people pretend their opinion is fact.

Does trading Lowry mean he was going to tank? What is your definition of tank?

What happened in Denver?

Masai has never tanked. Your belief that he was going to tank is only your belief.

Yes trading Lowry was obvious attempt at rebuilding/tank . It's not belief.

What happend in Denver? Superstar didn't want to play their anymore and he traded for a bunch of pieces. Team became mediocre and he overpayed McGee.

Sounds like you belive Masai is some anti-tank guy. And that's only your belief.

[Syd-TK3]

The heat really need to start winning some games

[Masai4PM]

Sounds like you belive Masai is some anti-tank guy. And that's only your belief.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2775209-masai-ujiri-on-raptors-tanking-not-doing-that-here-were-going-to-win

[MixxSRC]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2775209-masai-ujiri-on-raptors-tanking-not-doing-that-here-were-going-to-win

Different time in franchise. I'm talking about 2013 when team was on crossroads like right now. He also said we're not going to be stuck in the middle. And we're stuck in the middle

[Masai4PM]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2775209-masai-ujiri-on-raptors-tanking-not-doing-that-here-were-going-to-win

Different time in franchise. I'm talking about 2013 when team was on crossroads like right now. He also said we're not going to be stuck in the middle. And we're stuck in the middle

This team is not like the 2013 team at all.

No matter how much the TWO want to believe this team is doomed for failure and mediocrity, just so they can justify their obsession with losing and getting a ping pong ball chance in hell at a raw, unproven college kid.

This team is missing some pieces, everybody knows that, and losing a ton of games for a lottery isn't the only way to get those pieces.

[MixxSRC]

Yall cowards bro

[Inevitable]

They gave us a back to back in February, we face the Celtics on the second night. Wow, rigged. Anyways tank is strong.

[Pooh_Jeter]

As previously noted, Masai was absolutely going for a full rebuild in 2013. Even DeRozan talked about how he thought he was going to be next if the Lowry deal went through.

That quote from Masai that somehow definitively proves he will never tank is complete nonsense too.

First off, a GM can't readily admit they are trying to tank. They would be sanctioned by the league. Secondly, even if he was intent on a complete teardown, what purpose does it serve to publically let every GM know you're having a firesale? It's also not exactly a ringing endorsement for any players on your roster.

It's no different than a player saying "I want to finish my career here." It's just playing the media game and doesn't actually mean anything. Masai always plays it close to the vest. Sort of like how the deal with Bobby has been done for 6 months and he isn't giving any public indications of why he hasn't re-signed with the Raptors.

[Reeko]

As previously noted, Masai was absolutely going for a full rebuild in 2013. Even DeRozan talked about how he thought he was going to be next if the Lowry deal went through.

That quote from Masai that somehow definitively proves he will never tank is complete nonsense too.

First off, a GM can't readily admit they are trying to tank. They would be sanctioned by the league. Secondly, even if he was intent on a complete teardown, what purpose does it serve to publically let every GM know you're having a firesale? It's also not exactly a ringing endorsement for any players on your roster.

It's no different than a player saying "I want to finish my career here." It's just playing the media game and doesn't actually mean anything. Masai always plays it close to the vest. Sort of like how the deal with Bobby has been done for 6 months and he isn't giving any public indications of why he hasn't re-signed with the Raptors.

DeRozan asked to be traded around the time that the Lowry trade was supposed to happen.

[Masai4PM]

Yall cowards bro

Fans who want to win are cowards, and the TWO who want to lose and sabotage the franchise for a minimum of one, probably multiple seasons, for college kids who haven't done a thing in the NBA, but may pan out if we're lucky, are what?

Hero's?

You guys want a quick fix and think you have all the answers, let's just lose and draft all stars and hall of famers in the draft, that's some cowardly *** right there tbh.

[Reeko]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2775209-masai-ujiri-on-raptors-tanking-not-doing-that-here-were-going-to-win

Different time in franchise. I'm talking about 2013 when team was on crossroads like right now. He also said we're not going to be stuck in the middle. And we're stuck in the middle

This team is not like the 2013 team at all.

No matter how much the TWO want to believe this team is doomed for failure and mediocrity, just so they can justify their obsession with losing and getting a ping pong ball chance in hell at a raw, unproven college kid.

This team is missing some pieces, everybody knows that, and losing a ton of games for a lottery isn't the only way to get those pieces.

How do we acquire a star player without gutting this team? And if we do gut the team through a trade, how many years will said star player have left on his contract so that we can build around him properly before he bolts?