Tank World Order

[MixxSRC]

Yall cowards bro

Fans who want to win are cowards, and the TWO who want to lose and sabotage the franchise for a minimum of one, probably multiple seasons, for college kids who haven't done a thing in the NBA, but may pan out if we're lucky, are what?

Hero's?

You guys want a quick fix and think you have all the answers, let's just lose and draft all stars and hall of famers in the draft, that's some cowardly *** right there tbh.

No you got it backwards. You guys using scare tactics such as 'we won't tank hard enough" "we won't win the lottery" "the guy we draft won't end up being good" you guys are trying to scare people off and for what?

Being in the middle is not winning. Not having prospects to build around is not winning.

[720]

Houston and Detroit winning today was good for the tank.

[Masai4PM]

If losing makes the TWO happy, then they must've been the happiest bunch of Raptor's fans for the greater part of the Raptor's existence.

It makes sense, why cheer for a core that recently won a Championship, when we could go back to the glory days of waiting for our turn in the draft lottery.

[mdenny]

Can you answer my questions please and then I will attempt to answer yours.

Sources:

https://threesandlayups.com/2019/05/15/how-likely-is-each-draft-pick-to-someday-make-an-all-star-team/

https://towardsdatascience.com/what-are-the-odds-a-statistical-analysis-of-tanking-in-the-nba-2c5fe228cd67

Now time to put our critical thinking hats on.

The probability of an all-star increases the higher you pick. Nobody is disputing this. That said, there are issues with the data provided.

Back in the 90s, players were more likely to stay in college for multiple years. As a result, teams selected from a group of more mature, developed players making it easier to pick the stars from the scrubs. Players declare early today making the draft more of a crapshoot.

Look at the 2020 draft that just passed, 9 out of the top 10 picks were 19-20 yrs old! Its extemely difficult to predict how players this young will develop regardless of natural talent level....look at Andrew Wiggins as an example.

Point is - 90s data is almost irrelvant today....the draft has changed, the league has changed.

Here's a quick and dirty analysis I just did of the draft from 2000-2018.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AnvHDtda71NBgjc3GtHpBA6W-4wF?e=X9jWtr

Explanation:

- I've graded every player on a scale of 1 to 6. These grades are from memory but I think fairly accurate. I was lenient with handing out all-star grades...i.e. guys like Mike Conley, CJ McCollum, Colin Sexton, Jaylen Brown have not made an all-star team (yet?) but I gave them the benefit of the doubt.

6-MVP
5- All-Star
4 - Starter
3 - Bench
2 - Journey Man
1 - Scrub/Trash

- I've also assigned level of tanking score from 1-10 for each pick. #1 picks score 10. #10 picks score 1.

Observations:

The average player picked in top 10 scored a 3.3....so somewhere between bench player and starter. i.e. Normal Powell level.

The average player picked in the top 5 scored a 3.7....close to an average starter....i.e. Fred VanVleet level.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in top 10 is roughly 26.3%.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in the top 5 is roughly 36.8%. Put in other terms, this is a 63.2% failure rate unless you think gutting your team to tank and ending up with Tristan Thompson or worse is a success.

The teams that tanked the hardest and collected the most lottery "assets" from 2000-2018.
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Sacremento
Charlotte

The Teams that tanked the least from 2000-2018.
Miami
Houston
Dallas
Indiana
San Antonio

Which set of franchises above have better run?

Comments:

In order to tank to be a top 5 tankster team, you have to be really, really bad. I think the Raps have been decent for so long that a lot of fans have forgetten what a top 5 tankster team actually looks like.

The last time the Raps landed a top 5 pick - Andrei Bargnani was their 1st option and 30 yr old Jose Calderon was their best player. In order to get to that level.....you have to get rid of at least 2 of Lowry/VanVleet/Siakam/Nurse with no immediate return (I think maybe even 3). Ujiri/Webster will not do this.

This is a great post. cheers

[Reeko]

If losing makes the TWO happy, then they must've been the happiest bunch of Raptor's fans for the greater part of the Raptor's existence.

It makes sense, why cheer for a core that recently won a Championship, when we could go back to the glory days of waiting for our turn in the draft lottery.

We like the core, it just needs a superstar.

[PhilBlackson]

If losing makes the TWO happy, then they must've been the happiest bunch of Raptor's fans for the greater part of the Raptor's existence.

It makes sense, why cheer for a core that recently won a Championship, when we could go back to the glory days of waiting for our turn in the draft lottery.

We like the core, it just needs a superstar.

Why do people talk as if Fred, Pascal and OG are THE heart of the "championship core"???

1. At the HEART of it was KAWHI FRICKIN LEONARD who required a HISTORICAL run that only had numbers players like Jordan, Kareem, LeBron and Hakeem had. Without that, this team was going to get curb stomped in the 2nd round by the Sixers when SIAKAM and FRED shriveled up like they went swimming in ice water. Fred and Pascal might as well have been Bruno, they were so lost against Philly and couldn't handle their height...why that changes this year?!

2. GASOL was a massive part of just squeeking out of the 2nd by clamping down Embiid...he's been replaced by tank commander Baynes and the human stick figure Boucher. Combine Marc with Serge and they with again KAWHI were the reason we were then able to stop Giannis...all 3 of those players are gone. So ask yourselves how far do we go without those 3?? Meanwhile do we remember how far inward Siakam went?!??

3. Our best player is STILL Lowry, the same guy who's contract is up end of this season and is nearing retirement who would no longer be considered a part of this "core" nor should be factored as he's highly likely to a) leave in FA for more money or better situation b) absolutely will decline so his play can't be factored into the future

4. OG didn't even play in the Finals

So please save me with this "championship core" nonsense. They contributed at times but certainly not nearly as much as they're trying to pretend lol

[Basketball_Jones]

Oladipo is looking like crap again. There's no big star in free agency. Well I mean Derozan, but that would be a dream since he'll have sooo many suitors vying for his services it'll be like the Decision with Lebron. Please just tank away, the free agency game isn't for us.

[720]

If losing makes the TWO happy, then they must've been the happiest bunch of Raptor's fans for the greater part of the Raptor's existence.

It makes sense, why cheer for a core that recently won a Championship, when we could go back to the glory days of waiting for our turn in the draft lottery.

We like the core, it just needs a superstar.

Why do people talk as if Fred, Pascal and OG are THE heart of the "championship core"???

1. At the HEART of it was KAWHI FRICKIN LEONARD who required a HISTORICAL run that only had numbers players like Jordan, Kareem, LeBron and Hakeem had. Without that, this team was going to get curb stomped in the 2nd round by the Sixers when SIAKAM and FRED shriveled up like they went swimming in ice water. Fred and Pascal might as well have been Bruno, he was so lost against Philly and their height...why that changes this year?!

2. GASOL was a massive part of just squeeking out of the 2nd by clamping down Embiid...he's been replaced by tank commander Baynes and the human stick figure Boucher. Combine Marc with Serge and they with again KAWHI were the reason we were then able to stop Giannis...all 3 of those players are gone. So ask yourselves how far do we go without those 3?? Meanwhile do we remember how far inward Siakam went?!??

3. Our best player is STILL Lowry, the same guy who's contract is up end of this season and is nearing retirement who would no longer be considered a part of this "core" nor should be factored as he's highly likely to a) leave in FA for more money or better situation b) absolutely will decline so his play can't be factored into the future

4. OG didn't even play in the Finals

So please save me with this "championship core" nonsense. They contributed at times but certainly not nearly as much as they're trying to pretend lol

Lol He knows what we mean and that this squad doesn’t have what it takes (no one has that low of an iq to not get it I feel). He’s just okay with mediocrity, he’s fine with supporting a roster that has no future.

[bballsparkin]

Well I mean Derozan, but that would be a dream since he'll have sooo many suitors vying for his services it'll be like the Decision with Lebron.

[Tacoma]

Sources:

https://threesandlayups.com/2019/05/15/how-likely-is-each-draft-pick-to-someday-make-an-all-star-team/

https://towardsdatascience.com/what-are-the-odds-a-statistical-analysis-of-tanking-in-the-nba-2c5fe228cd67

Now time to put our critical thinking hats on.

The probability of an all-star increases the higher you pick. Nobody is disputing this. That said, there are issues with the data provided.

Back in the 90s, players were more likely to stay in college for multiple years. As a result, teams selected from a group of more mature, developed players making it easier to pick the stars from the scrubs. Players declare early today making the draft more of a crapshoot.

Look at the 2020 draft that just passed, 9 out of the top 10 picks were 19-20 yrs old! Its extemely difficult to predict how players this young will develop regardless of natural talent level....look at Andrew Wiggins as an example.

Point is - 90s data is almost irrelvant today....the draft has changed, the league has changed.

Here's a quick and dirty analysis I just did of the draft from 2000-2018.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AnvHDtda71NBgjc3GtHpBA6W-4wF?e=X9jWtr

Explanation:

- I've graded every player on a scale of 1 to 6. These grades are from memory but I think fairly accurate. I was lenient with handing out all-star grades...i.e. guys like Mike Conley, CJ McCollum, Colin Sexton, Jaylen Brown have not made an all-star team (yet?) but I gave them the benefit of the doubt.

6-MVP
5- All-Star
4 - Starter
3 - Bench
2 - Journey Man
1 - Scrub/Trash

- I've also assigned level of tanking score from 1-10 for each pick. #1 picks score 10. #10 picks score 1.

Observations:

The average player picked in top 10 scored a 3.3....so somewhere between bench player and starter. i.e. Normal Powell level.

The average player picked in the top 5 scored a 3.7....close to an average starter....i.e. Fred VanVleet level.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in top 10 is roughly 26.3%.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in the top 5 is roughly 36.8%. Put in other terms, this is a 63.2% failure rate unless you think gutting your team to tank and ending up with Tristan Thompson or worse is a success.

The teams that tanked the hardest and collected the most lottery "assets" from 2000-2018.
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Sacremento
Charlotte

The Teams that tanked the least from 2000-2018.
Miami
Houston
Dallas
Indiana
San Antonio

Which set of franchises above have better run?

Comments:

In order to tank to be a top 5 tankster team, you have to be really, really bad. I think the Raps have been decent for so long that a lot of fans have forgetten what a top 5 tankster team actually looks like.

The last time the Raps landed a top 5 pick - Andrei Bargnani was their 1st option and 30 yr old Jose Calderon was their best player. In order to get to that level.....you have to get rid of at least 2 of Lowry/VanVleet/Siakam/Nurse with no immediate return (I think maybe even 3). Ujiri/Webster will not do this.

This is a great post. cheers

Not quite.

The "top 5" mantra is a red herring. The point of tanking is to land a pick as high as possible. In a good draft like 2021, a top 10 pick is still going to be very good, but you just want to draft as high as possible, preferably in the lottery, for better chance of picking a star, rather than in the 15-25 range.

Bargs was not our last top 5 pick. It was JV @ #5 in 2011. He ended up being traded for Gasol who was a key starter for our 2019 Championship team. Which brings up another point that high lottery picks can also be good trade assets, the higher the better.

[720]

I feel like as we get closer and closer to the draft any one of Cade, Kuminga, and Green could get the 1st overall pick hype. All three are amazing all around talents and each one has different elements that make them elite.

I hope Suggs , Mobley and some other guys start picking up hype because if we somehow land in the 4-6 range I hope one of these guys drop to us.

[Chandan]

If losing makes the TWO happy, then they must've been the happiest bunch of Raptor's fans for the greater part of the Raptor's existence.

It makes sense, why cheer for a core that recently won a Championship, when we could go back to the glory days of waiting for our turn in the draft lottery.

no we've survived years of losing and finally tasted REAL winning. I am willing to suffer that again short term if it gets us back there.

[Rasho is god]

Now time to put our critical thinking hats on.

The probability of an all-star increases the higher you pick. Nobody is disputing this. That said, there are issues with the data provided.

Back in the 90s, players were more likely to stay in college for multiple years. As a result, teams selected from a group of more mature, developed players making it easier to pick the stars from the scrubs. Players declare early today making the draft more of a crapshoot.

Look at the 2020 draft that just passed, 9 out of the top 10 picks were 19-20 yrs old! Its extemely difficult to predict how players this young will develop regardless of natural talent level....look at Andrew Wiggins as an example.

Point is - 90s data is almost irrelvant today....the draft has changed, the league has changed.

Here's a quick and dirty analysis I just did of the draft from 2000-2018.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AnvHDtda71NBgjc3GtHpBA6W-4wF?e=X9jWtr

Explanation:

- I've graded every player on a scale of 1 to 6. These grades are from memory but I think fairly accurate. I was lenient with handing out all-star grades...i.e. guys like Mike Conley, CJ McCollum, Colin Sexton, Jaylen Brown have not made an all-star team (yet?) but I gave them the benefit of the doubt.

6-MVP
5- All-Star
4 - Starter
3 - Bench
2 - Journey Man
1 - Scrub/Trash

- I've also assigned level of tanking score from 1-10 for each pick. #1 picks score 10. #10 picks score 1.

Observations:

The average player picked in top 10 scored a 3.3....so somewhere between bench player and starter. i.e. Normal Powell level.

The average player picked in the top 5 scored a 3.7....close to an average starter....i.e. Fred VanVleet level.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in top 10 is roughly 26.3%.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in the top 5 is roughly 36.8%. Put in other terms, this is a 63.2% failure rate unless you think gutting your team to tank and ending up with Tristan Thompson or worse is a success.

The teams that tanked the hardest and collected the most lottery "assets" from 2000-2018.
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Sacremento
Charlotte

The Teams that tanked the least from 2000-2018.
Miami
Houston
Dallas
Indiana
San Antonio

Which set of franchises above have better run?

Comments:

In order to tank to be a top 5 tankster team, you have to be really, really bad. I think the Raps have been decent for so long that a lot of fans have forgetten what a top 5 tankster team actually looks like.

The last time the Raps landed a top 5 pick - Andrei Bargnani was their 1st option and 30 yr old Jose Calderon was their best player. In order to get to that level.....you have to get rid of at least 2 of Lowry/VanVleet/Siakam/Nurse with no immediate return (I think maybe even 3). Ujiri/Webster will not do this.

This is a great post. cheers

Not quite.

The "top 5" mantra is a red herring. The point of tanking is to land a pick as high as possible. In a good draft like 2021, a top 10 pick is still going to be very good, but you just want to draft as high as possible, preferably in the lottery, for better chance of picking a star, rather than in the 15-25 range.

Bargs was not our last top 5 pick. It was JV @ #5 in 2011. He ended up being traded for Gasol who was a key starter for our 2019 Championship team. Which brings up another point that high lottery picks can also be good trade assets, the higher the better.

Poster didn't say Bargs was our last top 5 pick. What they said was that Bargs was our first option last time we were bad enough to get a top 5 pick, which this team is nowhere near. The point of the post is that the teams that have tanked the least have had more success. Go figure if you try to win you have more success...who knew.

We should build around this core, find talent through draft, free agency, and trade, develop that talent and try to win basketball games.

[bluerap23]

Can you answer my questions please and then I will attempt to answer yours.

Sources:

https://threesandlayups.com/2019/05/15/how-likely-is-each-draft-pick-to-someday-make-an-all-star-team/

https://towardsdatascience.com/what-are-the-odds-a-statistical-analysis-of-tanking-in-the-nba-2c5fe228cd67

Now time to put our critical thinking hats on.

Explanation:

The teams that tanked the hardest and collected the most lottery "assets" from 2000-2018.
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Sacremento
Charlotte

The Teams that tanked the least from 2000-2018.
Miami
Houston
Dallas
Indiana
San Antonio

Which set of franchises above have been better run?

Comments:

In order to tank to be a top 5 tankster team, you have to be really, really bad. I think the Raps have been decent for so long that a lot of fans have forgetten what a top 5 tankster team actually looks like.

Wait - so you're saying building a team around losing turns your team into a loser and building a team around winning turns your team into a winner? Hmmm.

You'd think that people who have followed the Raptors over their history would get this.


Great post

[KrazyP]

Now time to put our critical thinking hats on.

The probability of an all-star increases the higher you pick. Nobody is disputing this. That said, there are issues with the data provided.

Back in the 90s, players were more likely to stay in college for multiple years. As a result, teams selected from a group of more mature, developed players making it easier to pick the stars from the scrubs. Players declare early today making the draft more of a crapshoot.

Look at the 2020 draft that just passed, 9 out of the top 10 picks were 19-20 yrs old! Its extemely difficult to predict how players this young will develop regardless of natural talent level....look at Andrew Wiggins as an example.

Point is - 90s data is almost irrelvant today....the draft has changed, the league has changed.

Here's a quick and dirty analysis I just did of the draft from 2000-2018.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AnvHDtda71NBgjc3GtHpBA6W-4wF?e=X9jWtr

Explanation:

- I've graded every player on a scale of 1 to 6. These grades are from memory but I think fairly accurate. I was lenient with handing out all-star grades...i.e. guys like Mike Conley, CJ McCollum, Colin Sexton, Jaylen Brown have not made an all-star team (yet?) but I gave them the benefit of the doubt.

6-MVP
5- All-Star
4 - Starter
3 - Bench
2 - Journey Man
1 - Scrub/Trash

- I've also assigned level of tanking score from 1-10 for each pick. #1 picks score 10. #10 picks score 1.

Observations:

The average player picked in top 10 scored a 3.3....so somewhere between bench player and starter. i.e. Normal Powell level.

The average player picked in the top 5 scored a 3.7....close to an average starter....i.e. Fred VanVleet level.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in top 10 is roughly 26.3%.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in the top 5 is roughly 36.8%. Put in other terms, this is a 63.2% failure rate unless you think gutting your team to tank and ending up with Tristan Thompson or worse is a success.

The teams that tanked the hardest and collected the most lottery "assets" from 2000-2018.
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Sacremento
Charlotte

The Teams that tanked the least from 2000-2018.
Miami
Houston
Dallas
Indiana
San Antonio

Which set of franchises above have better run?

Comments:

In order to tank to be a top 5 tankster team, you have to be really, really bad. I think the Raps have been decent for so long that a lot of fans have forgetten what a top 5 tankster team actually looks like.

The last time the Raps landed a top 5 pick - Andrei Bargnani was their 1st option and 30 yr old Jose Calderon was their best player. In order to get to that level.....you have to get rid of at least 2 of Lowry/VanVleet/Siakam/Nurse with no immediate return (I think maybe even 3). Ujiri/Webster will not do this.

This is a great post. cheers

Not quite.

The "top 5" mantra is a red herring. The point of tanking is to land a pick as high as possible. In a good draft like 2021, a top 10 pick is still going to be very good, but you just want to draft as high as possible, preferably in the lottery, for better chance of picking a star, rather than in the 15-25 range.

Bargs was not our last top 5 pick. It was JV @ #5 in 2011. He ended up being traded for Gasol who was a key starter for our 2019 Championship team. Which brings up another point that high lottery picks can also be good trade assets, the higher the better.

Who said Bargs was our last top 5 pick?

The last time the Raps landed a top 5 pick - Andrei Bargnani was their 1st option and 30 yr old Jose Calderon was their best player. you have be really, really, really bad to land picks that high. In order to get to that level.....you have to get rid of at least 2 of Lowry/VanVleet/Siakam/Nurse with no immediate return (I think maybe even 3). Ujiri/Webster will not do this.

Lowry will likely be traded for a younger asset, the team will push hard to try and make the playoffs and towards the END of the season if they are too far out of the race, you may see them rest players. Thats a LOGICAL course of action for a well managed team in the given situation.

[Son Goku 25]

Well I mean Derozan, but that would be a dream since he'll have sooo many suitors vying for his services it'll be like the Decision with Lebron.

Just imagining Demar on Sportsnet yellowknife doing his announcement

[Danny1616]

Can you answer my questions please and then I will attempt to answer yours.

Sources:

https://threesandlayups.com/2019/05/15/how-likely-is-each-draft-pick-to-someday-make-an-all-star-team/

https://towardsdatascience.com/what-are-the-odds-a-statistical-analysis-of-tanking-in-the-nba-2c5fe228cd67

Now time to put our critical thinking hats on.

The probability of an all-star increases the higher you pick. Nobody is disputing this. That said, there are issues with the data provided.

Back in the 90s, players were more likely to stay in college for multiple years. As a result, teams selected from a group of more mature, developed players making it easier to pick the stars from the scrubs. Players declare early today making the draft more of a crapshoot.

Look at the 2020 draft that just passed, 9 out of the top 10 picks were 19-20 yrs old! Its extemely difficult to predict how players this young will develop regardless of natural talent level....look at Andrew Wiggins as an example.

Point is - 90s data is almost irrelvant today....the draft has changed, the league has changed.

Here's a quick and dirty analysis I just did of the draft from 2000-2018.

https://1drv.ms/x/s!AnvHDtda71NBgjc3GtHpBA6W-4wF?e=X9jWtr

Explanation:

- I've graded every player on a scale of 1 to 6. These grades are from memory but I think fairly accurate. I was lenient with handing out all-star grades...i.e. guys like Mike Conley, CJ McCollum, Colin Sexton, Jaylen Brown have not made an all-star team (yet?) but I gave them the benefit of the doubt.

6-MVP
5- All-Star
4 - Starter
3 - Bench
2 - Journey Man
1 - Scrub/Trash

- I've also assigned level of tanking score from 1-10 for each pick. #1 picks score 10. #10 picks score 1.

Observations:

The average player picked in top 10 scored a 3.3....so somewhere between bench player and starter. i.e. Normal Powell level.

The average player picked in the top 5 scored a 3.7....close to an average starter....i.e. Fred VanVleet level.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in top 10 is roughly 26.3%.

The Probability of drafting an all-star in the top 5 is roughly 36.8%. Put in other terms, this is a 63.2% failure rate unless you think gutting your team to tank and ending up with Tristan Thompson or worse is a success.

The teams that tanked the hardest and collected the most lottery "assets" from 2000-2018.
Cleveland
Minnesota
Chicago
Sacremento
Charlotte

The Teams that tanked the least from 2000-2018.
Miami
Houston
Dallas
Indiana
San Antonio

Which set of franchises above have been better run?

Comments:

In order to tank to be a top 5 tankster team, you have to be really, really bad. I think the Raps have been decent for so long that a lot of fans have forgetten what a top 5 tankster team actually looks like.

The last time the Raps landed a top 5 pick - Andrei Bargnani was their 1st option and 30 yr old Jose Calderon was their best player. In order to get to that level.....you have to get rid of at least 2 of Lowry/VanVleet/Siakam/Nurse with no immediate return (I think maybe even 3). Ujiri/Webster will not do this.

Fantasic post.

[ATLTimekeeper]

If losing makes the TWO happy, then they must've been the happiest bunch of Raptor's fans for the greater part of the Raptor's existence.

It makes sense, why cheer for a core that recently won a Championship, when we could go back to the glory days of waiting for our turn in the draft lottery.

no we've survived years of losing and finally tasted REAL winning. I am willing to suffer that again short term if it gets us back there.

I mean, who wouldn't with that guarantee? That's not what this is about at all.

[MixxSRC]

"Teams that tanked less San Antonio" who drafted Tim Duncan in 90s and Mavs who drafted Dirk. But again you guys cut off 90s because they stayed in college longer. But let's ignore that McGrady was highschooler and Garnett as well. And using Mavs as example of team who tank less? Their current success is because of tanking for Luka and Cuban admitted to tanking before.

That post has many problems
Badly run franchises are bad for long time. Idea that their problem is tanking is hilarious. I'm pretty if they tried to treadmill they wouldn't find much success.

[Danny1616]

"Teams that tanked less San Antonio" who drafted Tim Duncan in 90s and Mavs who drafted Dirk. But again you guys cut off 90s because they stayed in college longer. But let's ignore that McGrady was highschooler and Garnett as well. And using Mavs as example of team who tank less? Their current success is because of tanking for Luka and Cuban admitted to tanking before.

That post has many problems
Badly run franchises are bad for long time. Idea that their problem is tanking is hilarious. I'm pretty if they tried to treadmill they wouldn't find much success.

And yet even with a superstar in Doncic the Mavericks are 8-10. The Porzingis trade seems to have backfired because he's injury prone. We won't know how it will pan out.

Could it be another AD or George situation? Where a superstar level player is on an average team and wants out?