The Gradey Dick Thread Part 3

[tsherkin]

George has cleared Gradey by alot now and its not even close.

If Dick was playing 34 minutes, he'd have similar production. It's really about BI, and our shift to "win now".

Gradey's PER36 slash line right now is 16.7 / 6.0 / 0.7 on 38.5 / 28.6 / 77.8. And he's been crap on D. He's been ass on offense. No one sane would be playing him MORE right now.

[HumbleRen]

George has cleared Gradey by alot now and its not even close.

If Dick was playing 34 minutes, he'd have similar production. It's really about BI, and our shift to "win now".

Gradey's PER36 slash line right now is 16.7 / 6.0 / 0.7 on 38.5 / 28.6 / 77.8. And he's been crap on D. He's been ass on offense. No one sane would be playing him MORE right now.

Yet most of our best lineups have him in it.

As long as teams still guard him like he’s a top 5 shooter in the world, our offence is better off with him on the court.

He’s the only player on the team that gets 2 defenders sent at him when he’s on the perimeter coming off a screen or relocation outside of Ingram.

As soon as teams realize he isn’t that good of a shooter to warrant attention like that, he’ll quickly become one of the worst players in the league with his impact. We’re not at that point yet.

[tsherkin]

Yet most of our best lineups have him in it.

As long as teams still guard him like he’s a top 5 shooter in the world, our offence is better off with him on the court.

To a fairly minimal degree. He's exceptionally limited, performing very poorly at either end... He isn't good right now. He is very not-good right now. He's better than this, of course, so we should keep playing him to some degree and hope that he stops sucking so blatantly, and maybe even advances compared to last year, but let's not delude ourselves into thinking he's playing well or that he's majorly important to how we're performing at the moment.

As soon as teams realize he isn’t that good of a shooter to warrant attention like that, he’ll quickly become one of the worst players in the league with his impact. We’re not at that point yet.

We will be soon if he maintains.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Gradey gets covered like that in part because he has the ability to go off and change the outcome of a game and also because we have some suspect shooters. The net rating is high because the guys that are suspect are knocking their shots down.

Teams can back off and he's likely going to end up as one of the better spot up shooters in the league, which he was last year.

[sahibjones]

Gradey gets covered like that in part because he has the ability to go off and change the outcome of a game and also because we have some suspect shooters. The net rating is high because the guys that are suspect are knocking their shots down.

Teams can back off and he's likely going to end up as one of the better spot up shooters in the league, which he was last year.

Was he though?

[tsherkin]

Gradey gets covered like that in part because he has the ability to go off and change the outcome of a game and also because we have some suspect shooters. The net rating is high because the guys that are suspect are knocking their shots down.

Teams can back off and he's likely going to end up as one of the better spot up shooters in the league, which he was last year.

He was only any good when he was entirely open, though. With anything resembling contest last season, his efficacy dropped off considerably.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Gradey gets covered like that in part because he has the ability to go off and change the outcome of a game and also because we have some suspect shooters. The net rating is high because the guys that are suspect are knocking their shots down.

Teams can back off and he's likely going to end up as one of the better spot up shooters in the league, which he was last year.

Was he though?

84th percentile at very good volume, yes.

[Spates]

George has cleared Gradey by alot now and its not even close.

If Dick was playing 34 minutes, he'd have similar production. It's really about BI, and our shift to "win now".

George has been an awful defender in the league so far in his career. Can't really put his defense over Gradey.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Gradey gets covered like that in part because he has the ability to go off and change the outcome of a game and also because we have some suspect shooters. The net rating is high because the guys that are suspect are knocking their shots down.

Teams can back off and he's likely going to end up as one of the better spot up shooters in the league, which he was last year.

He was only any good when he was entirely open, though. With anything resembling contest last season, his efficacy dropped off considerably.

Any 3 contested tends to be a step back, which isn't his game. He doesn't take a lot of contested shots at all, unless he's driving into the paint.

[tsherkin]

Any 3 contested tends to be a step back, which isn't his game. He doesn't take a lot of contested shots at all, unless he's driving into the paint.

Last year, 2.9 3PA/g with a defender within 4-6 feet, an additional 0.9/g with the defender 2-4 feet. Shot 14.3% on the latter, and 35.3% on the former. 43% when the defender was more than 6 feet from him.

Literally any defensive pressure/proximity significantly impacted his performance. He needs to be WIIIIIIIIDE open.

[HumbleRen]

Yet most of our best lineups have him in it.

As long as teams still guard him like he’s a top 5 shooter in the world, our offence is better off with him on the court.

To a fairly minimal degree. He's exceptionally limited, performing very poorly at either end... He isn't good right now. He is very not-good right now. He's better than this, of course, so we should keep playing him to some degree and hope that he stops sucking so blatantly, and maybe even advances compared to last year, but let's not delude ourselves into thinking he's playing well or that he's majorly important to how we're performing at the moment.

As soon as teams realize he isn’t that good of a shooter to warrant attention like that, he’ll quickly become one of the worst players in the league with his impact. We’re not at that point yet.

We will be soon if he maintains.

I mean I agree, I’m not saying he’s playing well, he’s playing like ass.

I’m just saying his spacing gravity alone is still a positive for our offence hence him having positive on/off numbers.

All that goes away if teams stop treating him like Klay Thompson.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Any 3 contested tends to be a step back, which isn't his game. He doesn't take a lot of contested shots at all, unless he's driving into the paint.

Last year, 2.9 3PA/g with a defender within 4-6 feet, an additional 0.9/g with the defender 2-4 feet. Shot 14.3% on the latter, and 35.3% on the former. 43% when the defender was more than 6 feet from him.

Literally any defensive pressure/proximity significantly impacted his performance. He needs to be WIIIIIIIIDE open.

Why would we want him taking tightly contested 3s? That's what the one dribble pull up is for.

Of course, when you're dealing with young players it's never a sure thing, but his % on open and wide open shots were good for someone that young.

[TheDunc]

I still havent figured out if Dick is a good shooter. Hes always had that reputation but im never confident when he shoots thw 3. From mid range and free throw i am but he cant dribble.

I think we have a better version of him in Jamison Battle and the raps better figure that out because Battle will thrive if ever he leaves the raptors

[HumbleRen]

I still havent figured out if Dick is a good shooter. Hes always had that reputation but im never confident when he shoots thw 3. From mid range and free throw i am but he cant dribble.

I think we have a better version of him in Jamison Battle and the raps better figure that out because Battle will thrive if ever he leaves the raptors

I think he's a good shooter, he just isn't elite at it. Maybe not even great at it.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I think a good example of how they are different is Gradey has as many FTA this year than Battle had all last year. Battle is there just to shoot. Gradey is there to draw defensive attention away from the ballhandlers, and because he can pull up in the midrange he can draw the attention of the second line of defense. Ultimately they are both high points per touch guys. They are there to play off of someone better.

[YogurtProducer]

Yet most of our best lineups have him in it.

I pointed this out elsewhere, but he has benefitted from teams shooting the 3 VERY poorly when he is on the floor. I think we can all admit that is noise and not anything to do with Gradey as a defensive player.

As long as teams still guard him like he’s a top 5 shooter in the world, our offence is better off with him on the court.

On the other hand, we have shot the 3 VERY well with Gradey on the floor. Which again, is small sample noise and will normalize. We cannot realistically expect us to shoot 42% from 3 when Gradey plays. To go deeper, non "dick" 3's when DIck is on the floor are going in 46.4% of the time. Just utterly unsustainable

He’s the only player on the team that gets 2 defenders sent at him when he’s on the perimeter coming off a screen or relocation outside of Ingram.]

As soon as teams realize he isn’t that good of a shooter to warrant attention like that, he’ll quickly become one of the worst players in the league with his impact. We’re not at that point yet.

I think you are overrating how much defensive pressure teams are sending at Dick.

[tsherkin]

I mean I agree, I’m not saying he’s playing well, he’s playing like ass.

I’m just saying his spacing gravity alone is still a positive for our offence hence him having positive on/off numbers.

It is a limited positive, because it's matched off against his D and how he isn't presently making any of his shots. The pull of his defensive gravity is only so useful, and that'll bear out more specifically in the numbers as defenses adjust.

Why would we want him taking tightly contested 3s? That's what the one dribble pull up is for.

Odd question.

a) I didn't say that
b) it isn't just tightly contested 3s, it's when a defender is anywhere near him, which I've now said twice. So literally any level of defensive pressure causes this to happen. That's an unavoidable thing in an NBA game, even if all you're doing is camping out and waiting to spot up. This is basic.

Of course, when you're dealing with young players it's never a sure thing, but his % on open and wide open shots were good for someone that young.

No, his percentage on shots when a defender was nowhere near him was good. His percentage on shots with a defender even remotely close to him was average. That's okay, but that's as limited in value as the utility of RJ in the corner, and it's literally the only thing he does well at the moment.

I'm not saying trade him immediately (especially right now, when his value is crap), but that we shouldn't be deluding ourselves about him. He's got some shooting ability, he's shown this, but he is very, very limited in what he can do with it at this time, and gets knocked out of major value very quickly with anything resembling defensive pressure. That has a fairly significant impact on how much we should care about his shooting ability.

[HumbleRen]

Yet most of our best lineups have him in it.

I pointed this out elsewhere, but he has benefitted from teams shooting the 3 VERY poorly when he is on the floor. I think we can all admit that is noise and not anything to do with Gradey as a defensive player.

As long as teams still guard him like he’s a top 5 shooter in the world, our offence is better off with him on the court.

On the other hand, we have shot the 3 VERY well with Gradey on the floor. Which again, is small sample noise and will normalize. We cannot realistically expect us to shoot 42% from 3 when Gradey plays. To go deeper, non "dick" 3's when DIck is on the floor are going in 46.4% of the time. Just utterly unsustainable

He’s the only player on the team that gets 2 defenders sent at him when he’s on the perimeter coming off a screen or relocation outside of Ingram.]

As soon as teams realize he isn’t that good of a shooter to warrant attention like that, he’ll quickly become one of the worst players in the league with his impact. We’re not at that point yet.

I think you are overrating how much defensive pressure teams are sending at Dick.

Oh don’t get me wrong, I believe GD is probably our worst defender. I just do believe in his spacing gravity and what it gives us.

If you watch him on the court, the defence is hyper aware of his presence in my opinion. Why? I don’t know but they respect his shooting prowess.

[ATLTimekeeper]

No, his percentage on shots when a defender was nowhere near him was good. His percentage on shots with a defender even remotely close to him was average. That's okay, but that's as limited in value as the utility of RJ in the corner, and it's literally the only thing he does well at the moment.

I'm not saying trade him immediately (especially right now, when his value is crap), but that we shouldn't be deluding ourselves about him. He's got some shooting ability, he's shown this, but he is very, very limited in what he can do with it at this time, and gets knocked out of major value very quickly with anything resembling defensive pressure. That has a fairly significant impact on how much we should care about his shooting ability.

Okay, whatever you're saying. It's normal for there to be a drop off from very good to average from wide open to open shots. And this fluctuates year to year with even experienced movement shooters. Cam Johnson Wide Open 42.2 Open 36.6 wasn't hurting his team out there on offense. He's on every scouting report.

I don't know what we're deluding ourselves with here, but he does draw defensive attention and he had a promising 2nd year leap in development. If defenses leave him alone and he gets more wide open shots, I think that will work out really well for us.

[VanWest82]

The issue I have wrt Gradey’s shooting is so often his C&S misses tend to be WAY OFF misses. I’m not a fan of his shooting form either. There’s too much back and forth shot put style instead of up and out.

He’s a skilled, high IQ movement shooter though with nice counters, and so if he can ever figure out form and be passable defensively I like his upside. Big ifs.