lolwut wrote:I don't understand how Bender is a consensus #3 pick in this draft. He should be a consensus bust.
It's like when Hasheem Thabeet was a consensus #2 pick in his draft. What exactly did people see that made them think "superstar" instead of "bust"?
your understanding is the quintessential "superstar-bust" dichotomy. That's not how any of this works.
Bender's not in the same stratosphere as Hasheem Thabeet as a prospect, who was just an unskilled giant feasting on smaller players in college. He literally did nothing well except block shots.
He has bust potential, yes. He's a unique prospect that needs to be developed and utilized correctly in order to reach his full potential. It's actually better for him that he'll be allowed to be on the perimeter, because if he was drafted a few years ago he might have been forced to become a traditional big and that would have completely killed his career.
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**** it. I'll explain why Bender is such a highly touted prospect. Firstly, in a league where 4's and 5's are increasingly asked to switch and guard smaller players on the perimeter, his mobility at his size (legit C measurements) is second to none. He moves like a SF. Combine that with an actual drive to D up on switches and good team defensive concepts he's already got good value there. Moreso than the other playmaking PF prospects like Dario Saric and Henry Ellenson, who will struggle defensively either due to poor measurements or lack of foot speed.
Of course that's not where I believe most of his intrigue comes from. It comes from his court vision/basketball IQ/playmaking at his size and position. He won't be a focal point offensively because that's not in his skillset or mentality, but he'll do all the other things well. Has the ballhandling to push off a miss and in transition. Put the ball on the floor and attack closeouts, either to score or make plays for teammates. He can catch the ball in the post and find open players weakside. Combine that with a possibility to run some PnR as the ballhandler at 7'1 and you've got a unique guy who fits the mold of the perimeter playmaking 4. I see him as a Draymond/Kirilenko type guy - excelling in a secondary/playmaking role but without the shot creation skills of an elite star. Add in developing but inconsistent 3PT range and you start to see what the full package is. The ultimate glue guy, really. Teams draft for potential, and his potential is sky-high if he can put it together.
He was really minimized in the role he had at Maccabi Tel Aviv, mainly because he couldn't battle in the paint. And here's where we get to the issues - he's too thin at this juncture, and he doesn't have enough lift really to compensate for that at both ends. He'll get blocked under the rim, or sometimes to finish drives. Guys will finish over him if he's late on his help. Though you have to remember he's still 18 years old, playing against grown men. He hasn't filled out yet. He'll always be on the thinner side, like Porzingis or Dirk or Kevin Durant. Can he put on enough weight to battle in the paint for rebounds/traffic finishes and occasionally defend stronger guys in the post? Because he'll need to be able to hold his own down there and not get bullied.
He's not a soft guy in the paint. He'll battle but he can't do anything due to lack of strength. In this sense he's like Porzingis, who was able to mitigate that by keeping up his aggressiveness and gaining a bit of strength. But Porzingis is very different - not quite the mobility of Bender but better lift and length, plus his approach to the game is as a scorer, while Bender's is as a complementary facilitator.