Draft Thread Part 8: 4th pick !!!!

[tecumseh18]

This is why John Hollinger is an idiot

Whoever pays for his takes is a fool.....The Dude really is way off and throws **** at the wall and hope it sticks

John Hollinger is what happens when you’ve built a one dimensional career and religiously stick to that dimension just because it’s what your brand is built on, even if you’re hilariously wrong and look like an idiot. I know that’s not a mock draft but even as a big board it’s pretty ****.

From Hollinger's interview with Koreen today:

Koreen: Assuming Cunningham, Mobley and Green are the first three picks in some order, which seems likely, would you pick the very Raptors-y Barnes or Sengun over Suggs?

Hollinger: If anything, I’m questioning why I didn’t put Barnes higher. If I was Toronto I would definitely go after Barnes, because I think he has the best chance of becoming a big star and, even if he doesn’t, he fits really well into a lot of the stuff Nick Nurse tries to do defensively with pressuring the ball and forcing turnovers.

I really like Sengun too, but it’s trickier with 5s because it’s so hard to play multiple bigs together. Toronto obviously could use some help at center, but the Raps would need a pretty high degree of belief in Sengun to roll with him here. (Also, realistically, if Sengun is their guy, they probably should trade down first and get more assets).

I mean, Hollinger's not an "idiot". But his PER stat overvalues certain counting stats. It's still a useful way to compare players. Top PER players are top players, period.

[Yallbecrazy]

This is why John Hollinger is an idiot

Whoever pays for his takes is a fool.....The Dude really is way off and throws **** at the wall and hope it sticks

Everyone gets some picks wrong. What would be the point of every mock draft being the same?
For what's it worth, Hollinger had Haliburton #4 on his board last year.

I'll never understand the hate people get for giving opinions that differ from consensus. If consensus was often right then the top 6 picks in every draft would be immensely more valuable and any pick outside the top 12 would be near worthless.

edit: Hollinger has a much better track record of ranking prospects than NBAdraft.net/ draftexpress/ Chad Ford

[Pointgod]

Guys we’re going to get Jalen Suggs and we’re going to like it. You don’t think the way we talk about Mobley other teams aren’t doing the same? I see the top 3 locked in and we’ll get Suggs which is a great fit with our team needs and his development needs. Suggs is a winning player and the Raps are the type of environment he’ll thrive in.

[WuTang_CMB]

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[DatHomieYouHaTe]

Whoever pays for his takes is a fool.....The Dude really is way off and throws **** at the wall and hope it sticks

Everyone gets some picks wrong. What would be the point of every mock draft being the same?
For what's it worth, Hollinger had Haliburton #4 on his board last year.

I'll never understand the hate people get for giving opinions that differ from consensus. If consensus was often right then the top 6 picks in every draft would be immensely more valuable and any pick outside the top 12 would be near worthless.

edit: Hollinger has a much better track record of ranking prospects than NBAdraft.net/ draftexpress/ Chad Ford

they think there is a consensus top 4/5 because the mainstream media told them so. these mocks are usually wrong every year and so are the teams. I doubt the Raptors want Suggs tbh point guards are a dime a dozen 6"9(barnes) guys with that wingspan and talent/upside are more their flavor esp at #4. They have also been rumored to be interested in Ben Simmons who is a similar player to Barnes.

[Psubs]

Everyone gets some picks wrong. What would be the point of every mock draft being the same?
For what's it worth, Hollinger had Haliburton #4 on his board last year.

I'll never understand the hate people get for giving opinions that differ from consensus. If consensus was often right then the top 6 picks in every draft would be immensely more valuable and any pick outside the top 12 would be near worthless.

edit: Hollinger has a much better track record of ranking prospects than NBAdraft.net/ draftexpress/ Chad Ford

they think there is a consensus top 4/5 because the mainstream media told them so. these mocks are usually wrong every year and so are the teams. I doubt the Raptors want Suggs tbh point guards are a dime a dozen 6"9(barnes) guys with that wingspan and talent/upside are more their flavor esp at #4. They have also been rumored to be interested in Ben Simmons who is a similar player to Barnes.

They got it right with Lebron then Carmelo, Bosh and Wade. Just Detroit doing Piston things.

Generally it's top 3 or even top 2 consensus.

[billy_hoyle]

He averaged 4 rebounds a game in college , i would not say he is a solid rebounder....He is an energy player at best....In the NBA he will be that Junkyard Jerome Williams Type of player at best IMO ....Which is not worthy of a 4th pick IMO....He will end up just being a solid rotation player imo we can do better at 4

That’s definitely selling him short. He’s a good passer and playmaker as well. The gamble is definitely his shooting. People are concerned about Suggs shooting and Barnes is definitely a step behind that. Hard to create consistently at the NBA level without being an offensive threat yourself.


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I guess it just bugs me when players get hyped up and over valued cause of these "Writers" and "Reporters"....Barnes is a decent prospect but he was projected to be in the 7-10 range all year long, Not Sniffing the top end of the draft and now based off what did he jump from that range all the way up to top 5 where the Top 4 have been at the top of the board all year long without any doubts or questions....

The Top 4 are Just so much more polished and have way more upside than anyone else outside of that top 4 that its not even close tbh...

Barnes would been awesome to get at 7 if we stayed there but at 4 people need to stop reaching for potential busts when we will never get a high end pick like this for many years ....You can find players like Barnes...The Talent of this Top 4 is to good to pass up on...I don't wanna be the Pistons and get Darko'd

Your logic here doesn't make sense to me.

You say we don't want to get Darko'd. At the same time you don't like the idea of a player breaking into the top 4 , because there's been a virtual consensus the whole season on who would go top 4-5.

Darko was 1000% part of a consensus at the top of the 2003 draft, some scouts were saying he should go 1st. It was a full year of that message in the media.

On the other hand D Wade moved his way up the draft board and was in the 7-12 range by the tourney. Obviously, he ended up 5th by draft day.

In retrospect, Detroit should have selected Wade (a 1st ballot HOF) over Melo and Bosh as well, not just Darko.

It's possible that the consensus is wrong. To me, if Masai selects Barnes it's because he is trying to avoid getting Darko'd. I.e. falling into the media driven consensus.

Masai and the team are, IMO, the demonstrated best scouts in the league, better than who ever is putting together these mocks.

[gha4life]

Guys we’re going to get Jalen Suggs and we’re going to like it. You don’t think the way we talk about Mobley other teams aren’t doing the same? I see the top 3 locked in and we’ll get Suggs which is a great fit with our team needs and his development needs. Suggs is a winning player and the Raps are the type of environment he’ll thrive in.

yeah i am just over all the other picks am just all in on suggs now , he has the it factor , he is smart plays defense , his motor is unquestionable , his passing is very elite has upside as an off the dribble shooter , and looks like will be very good with the pick and roll as well , he just has that confidence and calm demeanor as well , he is it

[OAKLEY_2]

Everyone gets some picks wrong. What would be the point of every mock draft being the same?
For what's it worth, Hollinger had Haliburton #4 on his board last year.

I'll never understand the hate people get for giving opinions that differ from consensus. If consensus was often right then the top 6 picks in every draft would be immensely more valuable and any pick outside the top 12 would be near worthless.

edit: Hollinger has a much better track record of ranking prospects than NBAdraft.net/ draftexpress/ Chad Ford

they think there is a consensus top 4/5 because the mainstream media told them so. these mocks are usually wrong every year and so are the teams. I doubt the Raptors want Suggs tbh point guards are a dime a dozen 6"9(barnes) guys with that wingspan and talent/upside are more their flavor esp at #4. They have also been rumored to be interested in Ben Simmons who is a similar player to Barnes.

Barnes will not go above 6 and Sengun will not go above late lottery. These change em up mocks are hits b.s. as nothing has really changed except people speculating on needs, org behaviour patterns and getting closer to the draft. It is not just Barnes or LOL Sengun it is also rearranging the furniture on Cade, on Green and when bored on Kuminga. So here it is. Cade. Mobley. Green. Suggs. Kuminga. Barnes. Mitchell. Moody. Wagner. Giddey. Keon. Kai Jones. Bouknight. Kispert. Sengun.

[AussieRaptor]

God forbid Masai and the Raptors scouts have a different top 4 than the collective media/fan consensus.

[Pointgod]

Whoever pays for his takes is a fool.....The Dude really is way off and throws **** at the wall and hope it sticks

Everyone gets some picks wrong. What would be the point of every mock draft being the same?
For what's it worth, Hollinger had Haliburton #4 on his board last year.

I'll never understand the hate people get for giving opinions that differ from consensus. If consensus was often right then the top 6 picks in every draft would be immensely more valuable and any pick outside the top 12 would be near worthless.

edit: Hollinger has a much better track record of ranking prospects than NBAdraft.net/ draftexpress/ Chad Ford

Predicting the draft is a complete **** show. Any of us could start our own blog and put out multiple mock drafts and we’d get a lot wrong somethings right like real life. Him getting somethings right is just the law of averages. However Hollinger’s slavish devotion to analytics makes his drafts stupid. There’s no context about fit with the current NBA playing style, landscape or player habits.

Looking at Hollingers big board for 2020 he had guys like Obi Toppin, Killian Hayes, and Oweka Okunyu over Halliburton and had James Wiseman at #8. I’m not a huge Wiseman fan but he’s a lot better than that. So sure Hollinger had Tyrese Halliburton at #6 but that’s really no different from other mainstream pundits like Johnathan Givony or the guys from the Ringer who said Halliburton has top 3 talent.

[Pointgod]

Guys we’re going to get Jalen Suggs and we’re going to like it. You don’t think the way we talk about Mobley other teams aren’t doing the same? I see the top 3 locked in and we’ll get Suggs which is a great fit with our team needs and his development needs. Suggs is a winning player and the Raps are the type of environment he’ll thrive in.

yeah i am just over all the other picks am just all in on suggs now , he has the it factor , he is smart plays defense , his motor is unquestionable , his passing is very elite has upside as an off the dribble shooter , and looks like will be very good with the pick and roll as well , he just has that confidence and calm demeanor as well , he is it

I don’t think Suggs will ever be an elite scorer, but I think he could be a worse passing Deron Williams type player. (Deron Williams was a freaking beast). Just a steady influence and above average defensive player that makes winning players. I think Chauncey Billups is a favourable comparison. The stats won’t stick out but he’s a guy you want on your team.

[mademan]

If the Raps end up picking Barnes, theyve earned the benefit of the doubt for us to be excited af. If they do pick him, i think he'll be a star in the Ben Simmons mold (but at least a decent shooter)

[DG88]

So many options with the 4th pick!

Can the 29th come any sooner lol.

[vulture]

Guys we’re going to get Jalen Suggs and we’re going to like it. You don’t think the way we talk about Mobley other teams aren’t doing the same? I see the top 3 locked in and we’ll get Suggs which is a great fit with our team needs and his development needs. Suggs is a winning player and the Raps are the type of environment he’ll thrive in.

yeah i am just over all the other picks am just all in on suggs now , he has the it factor , he is smart plays defense , his motor is unquestionable , his passing is very elite has upside as an off the dribble shooter , and looks like will be very good with the pick and roll as well , he just has that confidence and calm demeanor as well , he is it

I don’t think Suggs will ever be an elite scorer, but I think he could be a worse passing Deron Williams type player. (Deron Williams was a freaking beast). Just a steady influence and above average defensive player that makes winning players. I think Chauncey Billups is a favourable comparison. The stats won’t stick out but he’s a guy you want on your team.

If you watched Suggs in high school he actually was a score first guard, but he had to adapt his game around the heavy talent of Gonzaga. He can score if you ask him to and he will show it more in the league with better spacing.
The passing in College really surprised because he wasn't that good at it in high school and that tells you he works at his game.

[Young_Buc]

There usually is a top 2-3 consensus and the media screws with it, or teams leak info to get the guy they want. (Who remembers the raptors talking up Pavel Podokozon as a #5 pick in 1999? -he went second round)

If you remember the 2006 draft there was a near consensus #1 in LaMarcus Aldridge the other players in the 2-4 range were Gay, Roy, Morrison. Bargnani was mocked to go 5-8 before the lottery. After the lotto, Colangelo leaked to the media how "great" Bargnani was and the rest is history.

Anyway the top 4 IS the top 4 period. Barnes talk is to get others to bite and the media eats it up.

[Tortiglioni]

Everyone gets some picks wrong. What would be the point of every mock draft being the same?
For what's it worth, Hollinger had Haliburton #4 on his board last year.

I'll never understand the hate people get for giving opinions that differ from consensus. If consensus was often right then the top 6 picks in every draft would be immensely more valuable and any pick outside the top 12 would be near worthless.

edit: Hollinger has a much better track record of ranking prospects than NBAdraft.net/ draftexpress/ Chad Ford

they think there is a consensus top 4/5 because the mainstream media told them so. these mocks are usually wrong every year and so are the teams. I doubt the Raptors want Suggs tbh point guards are a dime a dozen 6"9(barnes) guys with that wingspan and talent/upside are more their flavor esp at #4. They have also been rumored to be interested in Ben Simmons who is a similar player to Barnes.

Literally 95%+ of 'experts' publishing mock drafts have absolutely zero scouting ability and simply copy existing mock drafts. So this creates a vacuum of public 'consensus.' You can be sure as **** the Raptors' board looks nothing like the garbage circulating on the internet. Listen to any interview with Tolzman, Ujiri, Webster around the draft and you will hear them mockingly refer to "where the public thinks players should go." I expect them to end up with Suggs or Mobley, but definitely would not be surprised if they valued Barnes over Green and/or Suggs.

[gha4life]

yeah i am just over all the other picks am just all in on suggs now , he has the it factor , he is smart plays defense , his motor is unquestionable , his passing is very elite has upside as an off the dribble shooter , and looks like will be very good with the pick and roll as well , he just has that confidence and calm demeanor as well , he is it

I don’t think Suggs will ever be an elite scorer, but I think he could be a worse passing Deron Williams type player. (Deron Williams was a freaking beast). Just a steady influence and above average defensive player that makes winning players. I think Chauncey Billups is a favourable comparison. The stats won’t stick out but he’s a guy you want on your team.

If you watched Suggs in high school he actually was a score first guard, but he had to adapt his game around the heavy talent of Gonzaga. He can score if you ask him to and he will show it more in the league with better spacing.
The passing in College really surprised because he wasn't that good at it in high school and that tells you he works at his game.

Yeah he looked like a different player in high school, he definitely adapted

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[ItsDanger]

Most of the mock drafts are ranked in present value. Scouts in various teams will rank in future value.

[Sandman88]

Per Sam Amico:

Jonathan Kuminga shined in his private workout for Cavs, sources say, and given that he spent a long stretch working out at Cleveland State, is familiar with area. He would love to play for Cavs. Story …