Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

That guy's last mock was awful but this one is shaping up to look more like what will happen on draft day. Doesn't look like Smith Jr. will go before Black and Hendricks and Hood Schifino is not a Raptors pick. He tried to convince himself that they need a guard and that JHS' length would fit the bill but he was weak both as a scorer and defensively so it's a definite no. This guy says JHS is a "fantastic defender" which is pure delusion just like he says Nick Smith's floater is an elite shot when it's one of the weakest in the class, Colby Jones has the deadliest floater/push shot in the class and it's not even close.

The only take I found interesting in his mock and possible at the end of the 1st round is Jalen Slawson being taken. If his mock shapes up to be roughly what happens there will be a large cluster of guards available and I think Masai would end up taking Keyonte George thinking he can develop him in the right way in the Raps system or Kobe Bufkin. Rupert doesn't strike me as a guy who flashes enough multidimensional ability to be taken at 13.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Actually I don't know if Bufkin would even be considered either except later in the round. If you look at at a guy like Colby Jones as a junior you have to ask yourself what kind of progress will Bufkin make from his sophomore to junior season and will he be better than Colby Jones was this year. Probably not. Strong possibility they would view Colby as the better prospect.

[dozo]

I don’t think a DBPM of 2.5 is much to ask either. Guys like Dick, Hendricks, Wallace, Filipowski, Lively, Podz, and Sasser are all around that.

And then if you filter it further to include only BPM’s at 8 or higher you’re down to Lively, Sasser, and Podz.

Yeah, in my previous searches if you're below in draft year DBPM 1.5 you are pretty much destined to be a weak defender in the NBA. The guys that really carve out long careers this low are overwhelmingly productive offensive players in their draft year.

But if I'm right about the Raptors these are all not on the table: Smith Jr, Sensabaugh, George, Howard, Murray, Hood-Schofino, Hawkins, Jackson, Lewis, Whitehead, Wilson, Strawther, Council.

College DBPM averages
Pascal Siakam 2.3
OG Anunoby 3.9
Fred VanVleet 4.6
Scottie Barnes 3.6
Gary Trent Jr. 2.6
Norman Powell 2.6 (3.2 in his final year)
Banton 2.4 (3 in his final year at Nebraska)
David Johnson 2.5
Malachi Flynn 1.1 (4.1 in his one season at SDSU)

I think it is pretty fair to say DBPM is a good indicator of draft worthiness for Toronto. All of these 2023 draft prospects are 6'4 combo type guards who are 19 years-old and could be considered POA defenders.

Prospect A
7.8 BPM
4.2 DBPM
45 FG%
35 3P%
52 EFG
54 TS%

Prospect B
5 BPM
3.4 DBPM
49 FG%
37 3P%
53 EFG
55 TS%

Prospect C
6.7 BPM
3.3 DBPM
48 FG%
36 3P%
54 EFG
58 TS%

Spoiler:

Prospect A Cason Wallace

Prospect B Amari Bailey

Prospect C Kobe Bufkin

Bailey playing well of late. Can Kobe Bufkin play point?

The video below discusses:
Scoot@1min
Wallace@45min - will take time to become a starter
Black@55min - compared to Giddy/Dyson
Nick Smith @109min - good fit playing along star players
Colby Jones@117min - Chuck believes he beomes the best starter out of Wallace,Black, NSJ. (FT% only concern)

Watch on YouTube

[Dalek]

I think my favorite draft prospect who probably is not even listed in the first round by many is Oso Ighodaro from Marquette. He is a weird 6'9 C who can't shoot it from outside much, but he is an elite passer, great cutter and roll man, and just might be the smartest player in college ball. I love how this clip shows how he communicates on-court and is thinking a couple steps ahead:

Read on Twitter

Read on Twitter

My biggest argument about why the bench tanks, is mainly about IQ. Toronto has one of Boucher or Achuiwa on court most times and it is painful because of their lapses on defense, and their tunnel vision on offense. I'd love to get a OSO-type to provide a bit more steady play who is a ball mover, heady defender who organize the group on court. In some ways he reminds me of Sengun, but with better defense and less offense. Still, watching more of his film, it surprises me how much offense the guy can create.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

For starters, Wallace is way more advanced than Jones was his freshman year. I don't see Jones being better than Wallace in the NBA. For that to occur he would need to be a high percentage volume shooter. We don't really know if his 3 point shooting is for real, he's not as good of a defender and Wallace looks like a guy who when he's locked in on defense no guard in the league will want to have to deal with. I think Colby will have a lot of more mental lapses than Wallace.

I still see Colby as a guy who is a spot starter/first guard off the bench type shortly after starting his NBA career who can become a permanent starter due to an injury or gradually working his way into that position with consistent gameplay as a bench player. His efficiency with his 2pt shots is not something that I see going away in the NBA, not a go-to scorer but a guy who can have some 16-20+ pt games routinely working within the flow of an offense. If he somehow manages to shoot volume 3s at 40% then all of a sudden his value skyrockets and he will be regarded as a highly coveted piece around the league but I don't see a guy who can be an all-star or take over games, just a quality starter. I'm sticking with the Danny Green type of impact he will bring to a lineup.

[Ell Curry]

[
Prospect B Amari Bailey

I'm gonna watch him close against Gonzaga. We pick near the top of the 2nd tier (3rd if you wanna put Wemby in his own class but you know what I mean, there's a top 10-11 and we likely won't be in it) so grabbing a guy who was 9th out of high school and had a solid if little-noticed year on a contending team seems plausible to me.

[dozo]

Read on Twitter

A little something different here! I cut off The Expanding Big Board around the tournament last year, and I’ll be doing the same this year. However, to end the column, I’ll be giving you a look at my current Top 30—some “Quick Hits” style thoughts. I also made this board in a rapid-fire manner, going off the top of my head as opposed to deep diving into the notes. From there, I added my thoughts. It’s more of a “go with your guts” style board. It’s The Quick Hits Big Board!

1. Victor Wembanyama

2. Scoot Henderson

3. Brandon Miller

4. Cam Whitmore

5. Jarace Walker

I think I’ve talked myself back into Cam Whitmore. To be blunt, I absolutely despise how often Whitmore takes a second to assess the floor before attacking. His 6.3% assist rate for a forward is real “danger zone” territory. The only forward in recent years with a worse one in their final college season that stuck around? Anthony Gill. I guarantee you that this is the only time you’ll see the two of them compared anywhere this draft cycle. Still, I think Whitmore can get there. From a physical standpoint, he’s undeniable. Even when matched against bigger opponents, Whitmore still manages to fight his way to the basket. His cutting instincts are good, his first step is potent for his size, and he flies off the floor to finish. I’ve long bought his shot, which has been steady since the start of his senior year of high school. Defensively, he’s been far more consistent over the last month. There are shaky moments off the ball, but he guards it well across the spectrum. On paper, he should be an inside-out threat who creates for himself and defends well. He just needs to be more assertive the instant he gets the ball and keep his eyes up more consistently. I believe he’s capable of both.

6. Amen Thompson

7. Ausar Thompson

8. Taylor Hendricks

9. Jett Howard

Plain and simple, I’m buying it with UCF’s freshman forward Taylor Hendricks. There are the obvious drawbacks—like Whitmore, he’s a lower assist rate guy. Unlike Whitmore, he’s very thin and will get bumped around out of the gate. Still, at 6’9” with great length, I trust him as an instinctual, off-ball defender. He’s become far more consistent on that end of the floor, utilizing his feet better, keeping his hands high, and his arms wide. As he fills out his frame, he could be a guy who holds his own 1 through 4. His jump shot is absolutely gorgeous, and he hits 39.4% of them on 4.6 per game. Lastly, while he is a low-assist guy, he’s a snappy decision-maker who played in a play-finishing role. I don’t think he’ll ever make a wild leap as a handler and distributor, but if you’re talking about a tertiary starter next to a star, he’s already shown the ability to do what he’ll need to do. I’m not selling my Jett Howard stock, either. The 6’7” freshman is a real-deal movement shooter and trustworthy decision-maker. His handle and rhythm were on full display early in the season. As the year progressed, though, he struggled to get to his spots and saw his efficiency plummet inside the arc. Defensively, the less said, the better. From both a skill and physical standpoint, Howard was a late bloomer. He just finished growing and his frame needs to fill out. Growth spurt guys have proven to be something of a market inefficiency in recent years (Trey Murphy, Jalen Williams), and Howard could be another one of them. He has his warts, but his pedigree and physical profile, paired with shot-making, make him too enticing at this stage.

10. Anthony Black

11. Cason Wallace

12. Brice Sensabaugh

In my database, the NBA player who stuck around with the most Points Per 100 possessions in their final college season was Zion Williamson with 41.2. Brice Sensabaugh’s 40.3 would make him second on the list, and he did it on 52.3/40.5/83.0 splits with a usage percentage of 34. I get it—he can be a space cadet off the ball on defense and he’s not much of a passer. He doesn’t generate a ton of space for himself and his handle needs work. But the shot-making and scoring prowess here are historically absurd. I’ll take him 12th any day of the week.

13. Gradey Dick

14. Keyonte George

15. Jalen Hood-Schifino

16. Max Lewis

17. Kobe Bufkin

Michigan sophomore Kobe Bufkin has a September birthday, meaning that he’s actually the age of most freshmen in this class. The lightbulb went off for him in December, and he’s been on a rampage ever since. His skinny frame might make early minutes tough to come by, but he’s the prototypical “guard next to a star” in the modern NBA. He’s a slithery downhill attacker and an ambidextrous passer, he gets up to finish, and he’s a solid outside shooter. On defense, he’s an absolute pest. He contests shots well thanks to his vertical pop, and his timing is a big plus across the board. Given his youth, free throw numbers, and pull-up shooting statistics, I think the shot is real.

18. Dariq Whitehead

19. Jordan Hawkins

20. Nick Smith Jr.

Here is a list of guards in my database who had a worse eFG% in their final college season than Nick Smith Jr. and earned a second NBA contract:

Uh oh! You’ve reached the end of the list! Look, I think there’s a path for Smith to be an outlier. His floater touch is great, he can pull up in the mid-range, and I think he’s a better three-point shooter than he’s shown at Arkansas. I’m also pretty bullish on his passing despite the assist totals. He can whip the ball out of the live dribble, and Arkansas is…not a great shooting team. In fact, they’re a dreadful one. They are 350th in three-pointers taken per game, and 327th in three-point percentage. When my grandfather’s memory and day-to-day brain function started to decline, he once referred to something as a, “double s***ter,” a phrase I’ve never heard before or since. However, the shooting for Arkansas may fit that bill. While that excuses the passing counting numbers, I worry that spacing isn’t the only reason NSJ can’t pressure the rim. A meager 16% of his shots in the halfcourt come at the rim. Add in his skinny frame and injury history, and it can be hard to be encouraged. He’s a big “let’s go back to the high school film” guy. The same can be said for Dariq Whitehead, who at least showed that he can be a nasty shooter off the catch and offers more size.

21. Dereck Lively II

This column aged well. Lively has real offensive limitations and desperately needs to add mass, but I’m ultimately a believer in his passing, rim protection, and catch radius.

22. Rayan Rupert

23. Leonard Miller

24. Sidy Cissoko

25. Colby Jones

26. Marcus Sasser

27. GG Jackson

28. Kris Murray

This is a fun little trio here. Marcus Sasser is a player of a dying archetype—the small point guard. At 6’1”, size will always be a question. Still, he’s become a ridiculous shooter. Whether it’s off the catch or the dribble, it feels like it has a chance to go in if it came out of Marcus Sasser’s hands. He doesn’t pressure the rim well, but he does have the burst to get inside when he wants to, and he’s done better as a finisher this season. His passing games has improved substantially, too. He’s less erratic while still maintaining a healthy level of unpredictability. GG Jackson is the biggest upside play. It’s downright daunting to bet against an agile 6’10” guy who had big flashes as a high school age player competing at the high-major level. Still, it felt like he regressed throughout the season. His shot diet is abysmal, with Jackson settling for long, contested, off-the-dribble twos too frequently. Buying him as a shotmaker can be tough when he only made 31.8% of his off-the-dribble twos. He didn’t seem entirely engaged or interested without the ball. On defense, his shorter wingspan and relative lack of rotational awareness will make him playing the five a tricky proposition, taking away a potential mismatch role. But if he hits, man, I’m going to feel stupid. Kris Murray doesn’t seem to have the same upside as his brother Keegan. He dunks less often, doesn’t move nearly as well in any respect, and didn’t match his efficiency in any respect. Still, I think he’s a better shooter than his 33.5% on the year indicated. His passing vision developed nicely as the year progressed, and mentally, he’s a top-of-the-line operator. Murray manages to slither in on the glass on both ends and punishes everyone who doesn’t box him out. While he’s not working with the best physical tools defensively, his keen sense of the floor and ability to read opposing offenses should keep him afloat. If the shot is legitimate, there’s a rotation player in here at an important position.

29. Trayce Jackson-Davis

30. Adem Bona

I don’t think there’s a bigger, “he is going to hit his ceiling” prospect than Adem Bona. The 6’9” UCLA big man has an obscene motor. It’s clear that he “gets it,” too, as evident by how well he has improved his defensive technique while guarding down throughout the season. On the offensive end, it’s hard to get too excited. Bona’s an outstanding rim-runner and play-finisher, but he’s shown little in the way of range and passing. He could be a great, versatile defender, but without a super reliable way for him to punish teams for going small, it’s a bit trickier.

[WuTang_CMB]

Hendricks 8th lol. By the time draft comes, might even go top 10.

[Dalek]

[
Prospect B Amari Bailey

I'm gonna watch him close against Gonzaga. We pick near the top of the 2nd tier (3rd if you wanna put Wemby in his own class but you know what I mean, there's a top 10-11 and we likely won't be in it) so grabbing a guy who was 9th out of high school and had a solid if little-noticed year on a contending team seems plausible to me.

I am not settled on him because there are so many in that second tier that might fall to us (Wallace, Dick, Black, George, Jackson), but I do see some nice fit for Toronto. I will say that in watching UCLA a bit this year their defense really stands out. From Clark to Jaquez to Bailey they all defend at a high clip. I read an article about their coach Mike Cronin who brought his aggressive defense from Cincy to UCLA and they have his famous dog bone award for players who get deflections. Since Clark went out Bailey has stepped up on offense and defense and really rose to the challenge.

Amari also had a lingering foot injury in December so it could explain some of his weak early season numbers. I will say these past five games or so we have seen him hit more shots doubling his output, which is a good sign of progress. Not sure if it is enough to get into the mid first area, but if UCLA keeps winning his chances increase.

Honestly, I do like Bufkin a bit more, but I might be reaching with him being a a mid-first as well.

[ArthurVandelay]

Bailey should return to school, in my opinion. Sure he has turned it on of late but he’s looking at a 2-way or 2nd round pick. Maybe he gets himself guaranteed first round contract and that would change everything. But if he isn’t a first round pick, he can make some serious coin through NIL, more than minimum or 2-way contract, and return to UCLA as the man next year in a weak draft class. He could put himself in the mid to top end of lottery next season.

[ArthurVandelay]

Bailey should return to school, in my opinion. Sure he has turned it on of late but he’s looking at a 2-way or 2nd round pick. Maybe he gets himself guaranteed first round contract and that would change everything. But if he isn’t a first round pick, he can make some serious coin through NIL, more than minimum or 2-way contract, and return to UCLA as the man next year in a weak draft class. He could put himself in the mid to top end of lottery next season.

Also, I’m sure the Raptors are very familiar with Bailey.

At one of the Rico Hynes runs this past summer, I’m pretty sure it was Bailey who Hynes praised. He had been going to the runs pretty much daily on top of the UCLA runs. I believe Hynes then said the last guy who put that much work in during the summer as a college player was Russell Westbrook.

This is all memory from video 7-8 months ago so I might be wrong. Feel free to correct me if I am indeed wrong.

[Rapsfan07]

For starters, Wallace is way more advanced than Jones was his freshman year. I don't see Jones being better than Wallace in the NBA. For that to occur he would need to be a high percentage volume shooter. We don't really know if his 3 point shooting is for real, he's not as good of a defender and Wallace looks like a guy who when he's locked in on defense no guard in the league will want to have to deal with. I think Colby will have a lot of more mental lapses than Wallace.

I still see Colby as a guy who is a spot starter/first guard off the bench type shortly after starting his NBA career who can become a permanent starter due to an injury or gradually working his way into that position with consistent gameplay as a bench player. His efficiency with his 2pt shots is not something that I see going away in the NBA, not a go-to scorer but a guy who can have some 16-20+ pt games routinely working within the flow of an offense. If he somehow manages to shoot volume 3s at 40% then all of a sudden his value skyrockets and he will be regarded as a highly coveted piece around the league but I don't see a guy who can be an all-star or take over games, just a quality starter. I'm sticking with the Danny Green type of impact he will bring to a lineup.

I agree. Jones has showed a lil more passing chops than Green ever has. I think a more accurate comp would be somewhere between Josh Hart and Malcolm Brogdon.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

For starters, Wallace is way more advanced than Jones was his freshman year. I don't see Jones being better than Wallace in the NBA. For that to occur he would need to be a high percentage volume shooter. We don't really know if his 3 point shooting is for real, he's not as good of a defender and Wallace looks like a guy who when he's locked in on defense no guard in the league will want to have to deal with. I think Colby will have a lot of more mental lapses than Wallace.

I still see Colby as a guy who is a spot starter/first guard off the bench type shortly after starting his NBA career who can become a permanent starter due to an injury or gradually working his way into that position with consistent gameplay as a bench player. His efficiency with his 2pt shots is not something that I see going away in the NBA, not a go-to scorer but a guy who can have some 16-20+ pt games routinely working within the flow of an offense. If he somehow manages to shoot volume 3s at 40% then all of a sudden his value skyrockets and he will be regarded as a highly coveted piece around the league but I don't see a guy who can be an all-star or take over games, just a quality starter. I'm sticking with the Danny Green type of impact he will bring to a lineup.

I agree. Jones has showed a lil more passing chops than Green ever has. I think a more accurate comp would be somewhere between Josh Hart and Malcolm Brogdon.

Just comparing the type of impact they bring to the floor and overall value to a lineup, not as players.

[Rapsfan07]

Hendricks 8th lol. By the time draft comes, might even go top 10.

8th is Top 10.

[Dalek]

Bailey should return to school, in my opinion. Sure he has turned it on of late but he’s looking at a 2-way or 2nd round pick. Maybe he gets himself guaranteed first round contract and that would change everything. But if he isn’t a first round pick, he can make some serious coin through NIL, more than minimum or 2-way contract, and return to UCLA as the man next year in a weak draft class. He could put himself in the mid to top end of lottery next season.

Also, I’m sure the Raptors are very familiar with Bailey.

At one of the Rico Hynes runs this past summer, I’m pretty sure it was Bailey who Hynes praised. He had been going to the runs pretty much daily on top of the UCLA runs. I believe Hynes then said the last guy who put that much work in during the summer as a college player was Russell Westbrook.

This is all memory from video 7-8 months ago so I might be wrong. Feel free to correct me if I am indeed wrong.

Good memory. Here is Bailey (with braids) trying to cover Trae Young:

Watch on YouTube

[S.W.A.N]

Still lots of time for guys to make moves up and down based on workouts etc, but one can start to sniff out a list of realistic draft prospects that fit what we are looking for. Which is some combination of advanced stats and size/length at relative position. I would suspect that a pg/combo guard is our preference unless someone is a clear level above the competition.

Likely draft range 10-18. My guess. 14-15th pick

Top end of range. Wallace, Dick, Hendricks, Black, Whitmore.
Bottom end of range. Jordan Hawkins, Whitehead, Colby Jones, Sasser

Criteria for this list was a minimum of a 1.8 DBPM. The lowest we've drafted was David Johnson and we signed Wieskamp who also was a 1.9. I do think we are going to have a shooting emphasis but very few draft picks with a DBPM under 2 become anything special. Although last year had 3 lottery picks in Ivey, Mathurin and Jalen Williams were 1.9 or under that look like good choices.

Guys who don't fit our profile but might get drafted because they can score...
Smith Jr. Jett Howard Brice Sensabaugh Keyonte George.

Obviously I haven't included any g-league or international players.

[Rapsfan07]

Still lots of time for guys to make moves up and down based on workouts etc, but one can start to sniff out a list of realistic draft prospects that fit what we are looking for. Which is some combination of advanced stats and size/length at relative position. I would suspect that a pg/combo guard is our preference unless someone is a clear level above the competition.

Likely draft range 10-18. My guess. 14-15th pick

Top end of range. Wallace, Dick, Hendricks, Black, Whitmore.
Bottom end of range. Jordan Hawkins, Whitehead, Colby Jones, Sasser

Criteria for this list was a minimum of a 1.8 DBPM. The lowest we've drafted was David Johnson and we signed Wieskamp who also was a 1.9. I do think we are going to have a shooting emphasis but very few draft picks with a DBPM under 2 become anything special. Although last year had 3 lottery picks in Ivey, Mathurin and Jalen Williams were 1.9 or under that look like good choices.

Guys who don't fit our profile but might get drafted because they can score...
Smith Jr. Jett Howard Brice Sensabaugh Keyonte George.

Obviously I haven't included any g-league or international players.

I would imagine Mathurin, Williams & Ivey are exceptions to the rule. Also interesting to note that 4.7 is the lowest OBPM of that bunch.

Ideally I'd want to draft Wallace but if we have to take someone in the Smith Jr tier (10-15), I think I'd trade down with Brooklyn and take Bufkin and Jones. I am not high on Smith, Sensabaugh, Howard or George. So IMO, if we're going to take a chance with a scoring prospect, I'd rather have Bufkin over any of these guys; plus Jones, plus whatever else we might get, depending on where our pick actually lands.

But I have the Top 10 going as follows:

Wembanyama
Henderson
Miller
Amen
Walker
Whitmore/Ausar
Ausar/Whitmore
Wallace/Black/Hendricks
Hendricks/Black/Wallace
Black/Hendricks/Wallace

[Thaddy]

Still lots of time for guys to make moves up and down based on workouts etc, but one can start to sniff out a list of realistic draft prospects that fit what we are looking for. Which is some combination of advanced stats and size/length at relative position. I would suspect that a pg/combo guard is our preference unless someone is a clear level above the competition.

Likely draft range 10-18. My guess. 14-15th pick

Top end of range. Wallace, Dick, Hendricks, Black, Whitmore.
Bottom end of range. Jordan Hawkins, Whitehead, Colby Jones, Sasser

Criteria for this list was a minimum of a 1.8 DBPM. The lowest we've drafted was David Johnson and we signed Wieskamp who also was a 1.9. I do think we are going to have a shooting emphasis but very few draft picks with a DBPM under 2 become anything special. Although last year had 3 lottery picks in Ivey, Mathurin and Jalen Williams were 1.9 or under that look like good choices.

Guys who don't fit our profile but might get drafted because they can score...
Smith Jr. Jett Howard Brice Sensabaugh Keyonte George.

Obviously I haven't included any g-league or international players.

I would imagine Mathurin, Williams & Ivey are exceptions to the rule. Also interesting to note that 4.7 is the lowest OBPM of that bunch.

Ideally I'd want to draft Wallace but if we have to take someone in the Smith Jr tier (10-15), I think I'd trade down with Brooklyn and take Bufkin and Jones. I am not high on Smith, Sensabaugh, Howard or George. So IMO, if we're going to take a chance with a scoring prospect, I'd rather have Bufkin over any of these guys; plus Jones, plus whatever else we might get, depending on where our pick actually lands.

But I have the Top 10 going as follows:

Wembanyama
Henderson
Miller
Amen
Walker
Whitmore/Ausar
Ausar/Whitmore
Wallace/Black/Hendricks
Hendricks/Black/Wallace
Black/Hendricks/Wallace

I see a similar top ten shaping out. It would leave us with Smith Jr., Dick, George, Howard, JHS, and Rupert as the best group without looking further.

I would probably go with the guy with the most potential of that group, which to me is Rupert by far. He has a Mikhal Bridges build, can shoot, plays aggressive POA defense, and he has guard skills from previously playing the point.

I have a feeling someone in the top 10 will like Dick, George, or Smith Jr more than most. If he sneaks into the top 10 we should go with whoever drops and has the most potential.

I could see us using our pick and Achiuwa to move up and take Hendricks. We badly need a shooting big man to space the floor for Siakam and he can protect the rim at a high level as well. Shooting 3pt shots with decent volume and being able to protect the rim is a valuable skill in the NBA.

[WuTang_CMB]

Hendricks 8th lol. By the time draft comes, might even go top 10.

8th is Top 10.

Ya think. Im saying he’s climbing in mocks now. Highest iv seen.

[Indeed]

Still lots of time for guys to make moves up and down based on workouts etc, but one can start to sniff out a list of realistic draft prospects that fit what we are looking for. Which is some combination of advanced stats and size/length at relative position. I would suspect that a pg/combo guard is our preference unless someone is a clear level above the competition.

Likely draft range 10-18. My guess. 14-15th pick

Top end of range. Wallace, Dick, Hendricks, Black, Whitmore.
Bottom end of range. Jordan Hawkins, Whitehead, Colby Jones, Sasser

Criteria for this list was a minimum of a 1.8 DBPM. The lowest we've drafted was David Johnson and we signed Wieskamp who also was a 1.9. I do think we are going to have a shooting emphasis but very few draft picks with a DBPM under 2 become anything special. Although last year had 3 lottery picks in Ivey, Mathurin and Jalen Williams were 1.9 or under that look like good choices.

Guys who don't fit our profile but might get drafted because they can score...
Smith Jr. Jett Howard Brice Sensabaugh Keyonte George.

Obviously I haven't included any g-league or international players.

I would imagine Mathurin, Williams & Ivey are exceptions to the rule. Also interesting to note that 4.7 is the lowest OBPM of that bunch.

Ideally I'd want to draft Wallace but if we have to take someone in the Smith Jr tier (10-15), I think I'd trade down with Brooklyn and take Bufkin and Jones. I am not high on Smith, Sensabaugh, Howard or George. So IMO, if we're going to take a chance with a scoring prospect, I'd rather have Bufkin over any of these guys; plus Jones, plus whatever else we might get, depending on where our pick actually lands.

But I have the Top 10 going as follows:

Wembanyama
Henderson
Miller
Amen
Walker
Whitmore/Ausar
Ausar/Whitmore
Wallace/Black/Hendricks
Hendricks/Black/Wallace
Black/Hendricks/Wallace

I see a similar top ten shaping out. It would leave us with Smith Jr., Dick, George, Howard, JHS, and Rupert as the best group without looking further.

I would probably go with the guy with the most potential of that group, which to me is Rupert by far. He has a Mikhal Bridges build, can shoot, plays aggressive POA defense, and he has guard skills from previously playing the point.

I have a feeling someone in the top 10 will like Dick, George, or Smith Jr more than most. If he sneaks into the top 10 we should go with whoever drops and has the most potential.

I could see us using our pick and Achiuwa to move up and take Hendricks. We badly need a shooting big man to space the floor for Siakam and he can protect the rim at a high level as well. Shooting 3pt shots with decent volume and being able to protect the rim is a valuable skill in the NBA.

I think it is different level in Smith (elite quickness, eg. Maxey) / George as compare to Buflin / Jones.

If Smith / George can create at high level, that maybe someone we need, as I don't believe Barnes / Anunoby / Achiuwa can create at that level.