Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II

[ATLTimekeeper]

I'm not sure how much stock I want to put into this. It's an interesting stat for sure, no doubt about it.

Like Wallace for example. Wallace is putting up 14.6 p/40. Nothing crazy. But if you're getting elite tier defense out of him, is that a non-relevant player? No, I don't think so.

I'd also bet on Bufkin. If we even get Jordan Poole type of production out of him, I'd say that's a steal anywhere outside of the Top 10 in most drafts.

'Relevant scorer' is what I said, so this has nothing to do with the quality of player overall. Plenty of really impactful players that aren't in the top 100 scorers in the NBA. I would bet against comps like Poole (also had a really low p/40 in his draft year), because those are exceptions. Those aren't good bets.

Well, we have to make a bet somewhere.

True, but I'll bet on better numbers. The low p/40 players that break out into scoring roles in the NBA are majority raw athlete type lotto picks. Teams are incentivized to develop these picks because when they bust it makes them look worse.

[Dalek]

my boy Dean with a big board that goes completely against consensus:
https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/sweet-16-big-board

While I enjoy different opinions, this is a little too different. Lively at #6? LOL

Dean is just trying to get views by being obtuse. My headscratcher with him is Cam Whitmore at 16. You are talking about a 232 lb 6'7 prospect who can play on the wing and defend his position and then some and is going to be 19 at the draft. Like, how many Villanova guys fail in the NBA lately? To me he is the safest wing bet outside of Brandon Miller.

[DreamTeam09]

If no1 falls, I'd trade down for Ricky Council IV. On a redraft a yr from now, he'll be a top15 player. He can be plugged into our lineup as a back-up 2-3 with some secondary ball handling skills.

Only reason why he's mocked so late is cuz he's and older transfer. At times he was the best player for Arkansas

[Yallbecrazy]

my boy Dean with a big board that goes completely against consensus:
https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/sweet-16-big-board

While I enjoy different opinions, this is a little too different. Lively at #6? LOL

Don't love Lively, but I can see the reasoning. He'll be a + defender as a rookie in the NBA and has a >75% to develop into one of the best rim protecting bigs within a couple years. He shows some passing ability too which often translates well. The hope is Rudy Gobert level rim protector while also being a good perimeter defender and he can't be any worse than Rudy offensively so he'll be getting minutes due to his defense to potentially develop some offensive game. Chances are he's never even mediocre on offense, but he's young so if he does then he will be better than Gobert.

[Rodrickle]

my boy Dean with a big board that goes completely against consensus:
https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/sweet-16-big-board

While I enjoy different opinions, this is a little too different. Lively at #6? LOL

Filipowski is even crazier imo

[ATLTimekeeper]

my boy Dean with a big board that goes completely against consensus:
https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/sweet-16-big-board

While I enjoy different opinions, this is a little too different. Lively at #6? LOL

Dean is just trying to get views by being obtuse. My headscratcher with him is Cam Whitmore at 16. You are talking about a 232 lb 6'7 prospect who can play on the wing and defend his position and then some and is going to be 19 at the draft. Like, how many Villanova guys fail in the NBA lately? To me he is the safest wing bet outside of Brandon Miller.

Sure, but keep in mind it's a different HC at Villanova now and their successes in the league were all in the program for multiple years. Jay Wright never ran a one and done program. Neptune called Whitmore a "young 18" and I think there have been some mixed reviews from pro personnel. He's raw and there's always considerable risk with that kind of prospect.

[Yallbecrazy]

If no1 falls, I'd trade down for Ricky Council IV. On a redraft a yr from now, he'll be a top15 player. He can be plugged into our lineup as a back-up 2-3 with some secondary ball handling skills.

Only reason why he's mocked so late is cuz he's and older transfer. At times he was the best player for Arkansas

Whitmore can't pass, has a A:TO ratio of under 0.5 and while his steals and blocks are very good, they're not elite. I would have him higher, Dean does have a better track record than the consensus the last several years.

[DreamTeam09]

If no1 falls, I'd trade down for Ricky Council IV. On a redraft a yr from now, he'll be a top15 player. He can be plugged into our lineup as a back-up 2-3 with some secondary ball handling skills.

Only reason why he's mocked so late is cuz he's and older transfer. At times he was the best player for Arkansas

Whitmore can't pass, has a A:TO ratio of under 0.5 and while his steals and blocks are very good, they're not elite. I would have him higher, Dean does have a better track record than the consensus the last several years.

I think you quoted the wrong person, but I am also a whitmore fan, I don't see him falling to us tho

[Dalek]

Reece Beekman won ACC DPOY and he has me intrigued based on the the success of Virginia players like Malcolm Brogdon and De’Andre Hunter who won the award.

I checked his advanced stats and they are impressive:

32 Ast%
3.5 Steal %
35 3P FG %
34 FTR
5.9 BPM
3.8 D-BPM

Notable guys with similar advanced numbers from college: Fred VanVleet, Kris Dunn, Kennedy Chandler, Jevon Carter, Delon Wright, Steph Curry, Tyler Ennis and Alex Caruso. He is not a volume shooter at all, but he is a crafty guard who I think is at minimum a Jevon Carter. Given the list of players, I could see Toronto having interest in this high level POA defender, who takes care of the ball and can shoot it a bit. He looks like a bigger Fred VanVleet. Given that he played at Virginia which is a snails pace, he should thrive in Toronto which should open up his game a bit more.

Read on Twitter

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Reece Beekman won ACC DPOY and he has me intrigued based on the the success of Virginia players like Malcolm Brogdon and De’Andre Hunter who won the award.

I checked his advanced stats and they are impressive:

32 Ast%
3.5 Steal %
35 3P FG %
34 FTR
5.9 BPM
3.8 D-BPM

Notable guys with similar advanced numbers from college: Fred VanVleet, Kris Dunn, Kennedy Chandler, Jevon Carter, Delon Wright, Steph Curry, Tyler Ennis and Alex Caruso. He is not a volume shooter at all, but he is a crafty guard who I think is at minimum a Jevon Carter. Given the list of players, I could see Toronto having interest in this high level POA defender, who takes care of the ball and can shoot it a bit. He looks like a bigger Fred VanVleet. Given that he played at Virginia which is a snails pace, he should thrive in Toronto which should open up his game a bit more.

Read on Twitter

Notable guys with almost exactly the same stats and advanced stats as Beekman: Jamal Shead.

[Kevin Willis]

my boy Dean with a big board that goes completely against consensus:
https://deanondraft.substack.com/p/sweet-16-big-board

Interesting take.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Beekman:

.510 TS%
32.3 AST%
3.5 STL%
2.0 ORB%
18.9 USG%
2.5 OBPM
4.3 DBPM

Shead:

.502 TS%
29.3 AST%
3.3 STL%
2.0 ORB%
19.6 USG%
2.5 OBPM
4.5 DBPM

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VdhUOzT8H-Y

[ATLTimekeeper]

If no1 falls, I'd trade down for Ricky Council IV. On a redraft a yr from now, he'll be a top15 player. He can be plugged into our lineup as a back-up 2-3 with some secondary ball handling skills.

Only reason why he's mocked so late is cuz he's and older transfer. At times he was the best player for Arkansas

Whitmore can't pass, has a A:TO ratio of under 0.5 and while his steals and blocks are very good, they're not elite. I would have him higher, Dean does have a better track record than the consensus the last several years.

I honestly don't mind Dean's list and his write-up is clear that he's being far from scientific in his approach to this version of his rankings. I read an article earlier in the year where an NBA scout said Whitmore was just looking to score and that turned them off. He seems more of an enigma to me than a solid bet to pan out.

I'm more interested in Leonard Miller, Cissoko, Rupert, Coulibaly than most of the NCAA guys in the 10-20 range.

[PhilBlackson]

We're not getting Hendricks, this team flushed the draft down the toilet the second MLSE decided they want their Playoff profits at all cost which is why we got Poeltl despite sitting in the top 6 in the draft majority of the year & the real reason why none of Fred, Gary or OG we're moved despite endless rumours, not because they weren't good offers, all reports contradict that. Instead they decided we're ok being mid as long as it profits....this team is THE definition of a MID team. Just a mediocre team that's nothing more than a "tough out" due to the effort they play with but don't have the talent to keep up when everyone's effort and coaching is at their best in the Playoffs.

We're going to need INCREDIBLE luck for any top prospect to slip through to us in the draft. Typically they're snatched in the 10-15 range, see SGA, Booker, Mitchell, Klay and now Jalen Williams (who is exactly who I said I was praying we'd draft and stay out of the Playoffs for). I'm not saying Hendricks is that guy (he could be) but odds are way against us being the benefactor of a slept on prospect because usually at the back end of the lottery teams are willing to take a flyer over guys who look to be "NBA ready" good role players ie/ Kris Murray and also why I like Cason Wallace but not in love with him as our pick, seems like he'll obviously be an important rotation player but this team doesn't just need to swap out Gary with a better defending player.....we NEED another star and we could've at least given ourselves a chance had we stayed the course, we'd likely be picking anywhere from 6-12 and I would've liked our odds of coming out with a VERY good player. Now I suspect we will get a good player but not a real difference maker & ceiling raiser. Again just praying for a fluke but the players that should be where we likely land (ie/ 15-17), aren't all that intriguing to me unless maybe we drafted GG Jackson and turned him into the height of his potential. Overall just a depressing forecast ahead for this franchise and disappointing because we did it to ourselves. I would've felt a lot better about this team had we stayed the course both last year & this year, we'd likely have one of Jalen, AJ or Branham right now with another top prospect otw, instead it's 1st rd profits or die trying!

[OakleyDokely]

Beyond #1 and maybe #2/#3, I don't think any of these guys project into stars. A lot of quality starters and rotation players though. Maybe one or two of these guys come out of nowhere and become great, but there's just as much chance these surprises are drafted 16th as 5th.

[ATLTimekeeper]

We're not getting Hendricks, this team flushed the draft down the toilet the second MLSE decided they want their Playoff profits at all cost which is why we got Poeltl despite sitting in the top 6 in the draft majority of the year & the real reason why none of Fred, Gary or OG we're moved despite endless rumours, not because they weren't good offers, all reports contradict that. Instead they decided we're ok being mid as long as it profits....this team is THE definition of a MID team. Just a mediocre team that's nothing more than a "tough out" due to the effort they play with but don't have the talent to keep up when everyone's effort and coaching is at their best in the Playoffs.

We're going to need INCREDIBLE luck for any top prospect to slip through to us in the draft. Typically they're snatched in the 10-15 range, see SGA, Booker, Mitchell, Klay and now Jalen Williams (who is exactly who I said I was praying we'd draft and stay out of the Playoffs for). I'm not saying Hendricks is that guy (he could be) but odds are way against us being the benefactor of a slept on prospect because usually at the back end of the lottery teams are willing to take a flyer over guys who look to be "NBA ready" good role players ie/ Kris Murray and also why I like Cason Wallace but not in love with him as our pick, seems like he'll obviously be an important rotation player but this team doesn't just need to swap out Gary with a better defending player.....we NEED another star and we could've at least given ourselves a chance had we stayed the course, we'd likely be picking anywhere from 6-12 and I would've liked our odds of coming out with a VERY good player. Now I suspect we will get a good player but not a real difference maker & ceiling raiser. Again just praying for a fluke but the players that should be where we likely land (ie/ 15-17), aren't all that intriguing to me unless maybe we drafted GG Jackson and turned him into the height of his potential. Overall just a depressing forecast ahead for this franchise and disappointing because we did it to ourselves. I would've felt a lot better about this team had we stayed the course both last year & this year, we'd likely have one of Jalen, AJ or Branham right now with another top prospect otw, instead it's 1st rd profits or die trying!

The Raptors can just trade up like the Nuggets did for Mitchell and the Clippers did for Shai, if they think there's a special player there. It's not that many spots to move into that 10-15 range if they aren't there already.

[DreamTeam09]

We're not getting Hendricks, this team flushed the draft down the toilet the second MLSE decided they want their Playoff profits at all cost which is why we got Poeltl despite sitting in the top 6 in the draft majority of the year & the real reason why none of Fred, Gary or OG we're moved despite endless rumours, not because they weren't good offers, all reports contradict that. Instead they decided we're ok being mid as long as it profits....this team is THE definition of a MID team. Just a mediocre team that's nothing more than a "tough out" due to the effort they play with but don't have the talent to keep up when everyone's effort and coaching is at their best in the Playoffs.

We're going to need INCREDIBLE luck for any top prospect to slip through to us in the draft. Typically they're snatched in the 10-15 range, see SGA, Booker, Mitchell, Klay and now Jalen Williams (who is exactly who I said I was praying we'd draft and stay out of the Playoffs for). I'm not saying Hendricks is that guy (he could be) but odds are way against us being the benefactor of a slept on prospect because usually at the back end of the lottery teams are willing to take a flyer over guys who look to be "NBA ready" good role players ie/ Kris Murray and also why I like Cason Wallace but not in love with him as our pick, seems like he'll obviously be an important rotation player but this team doesn't just need to swap out Gary with a better defending player.....we NEED another star and we could've at least given ourselves a chance had we stayed the course, we'd likely be picking anywhere from 6-12 and I would've liked our odds of coming out with a VERY good player. Now I suspect we will get a good player but not a real difference maker & ceiling raiser. Again just praying for a fluke but the players that should be where we likely land (ie/ 15-17), aren't all that intriguing to me unless maybe we drafted GG Jackson and turned him into the height of his potential. Overall just a depressing forecast ahead for this franchise and disappointing because we did it to ourselves. I would've felt a lot better about this team had we stayed the course both last year & this year, we'd likely have one of Jalen, AJ or Branham right now with another top prospect otw, instead it's 1st rd profits or die trying!

Whos AJ? Andrew Nembhard

Jaylen Williams is nice, and so is Walker Kessler, but again, those guys aren't players you should beat yourself up over. Ya'll aren't even really missing out on the players, but are more distraught at the fact of trading picks. Missing on Bane was bigger than any of the recent misses you guys bring up, and in the Bane draft we actually had a pick to acquire him.

Ya'all crying out about spilled milk, and noteven some organic almond milk, just some goats milk lol.

[OakleyDokely]

We're not getting Hendricks, this team flushed the draft down the toilet the second MLSE decided they want their Playoff profits at all cost which is why we got Poeltl despite sitting in the top 6 in the draft majority of the year & the real reason why none of Fred, Gary or OG we're moved despite endless rumours, not because they weren't good offers, all reports contradict that. Instead they decided we're ok being mid as long as it profits....this team is THE definition of a MID team. Just a mediocre team that's nothing more than a "tough out" due to the effort they play with but don't have the talent to keep up when everyone's effort and coaching is at their best in the Playoffs.

We're going to need INCREDIBLE luck for any top prospect to slip through to us in the draft. Typically they're snatched in the 10-15 range, see SGA, Booker, Mitchell, Klay and now Jalen Williams (who is exactly who I said I was praying we'd draft and stay out of the Playoffs for). I'm not saying Hendricks is that guy (he could be) but odds are way against us being the benefactor of a slept on prospect because usually at the back end of the lottery teams are willing to take a flyer over guys who look to be "NBA ready" good role players ie/ Kris Murray and also why I like Cason Wallace but not in love with him as our pick, seems like he'll obviously be an important rotation player but this team doesn't just need to swap out Gary with a better defending player.....we NEED another star and we could've at least given ourselves a chance had we stayed the course, we'd likely be picking anywhere from 6-12 and I would've liked our odds of coming out with a VERY good player. Now I suspect we will get a good player but not a real difference maker & ceiling raiser. Again just praying for a fluke but the players that should be where we likely land (ie/ 15-17), aren't all that intriguing to me unless maybe we drafted GG Jackson and turned him into the height of his potential. Overall just a depressing forecast ahead for this franchise and disappointing because we did it to ourselves. I would've felt a lot better about this team had we stayed the course both last year & this year, we'd likely have one of Jalen, AJ or Branham right now with another top prospect otw, instead it's 1st rd profits or die trying!

The Raptors can just trade up like the Nuggets did for Mitchell and the Clippers did for Shai, if they think there's a special player there. It's not that many spots to move into that 10-15 range if they aren't there already.

If the season ended today, the raps would pick 12th

[Dalek]

Reece Beekman won ACC DPOY and he has me intrigued based on the the success of Virginia players like Malcolm Brogdon and De’Andre Hunter who won the award.

I checked his advanced stats and they are impressive:

32 Ast%
3.5 Steal %
35 3P FG %
34 FTR
5.9 BPM
3.8 D-BPM

Notable guys with similar advanced numbers from college: Fred VanVleet, Kris Dunn, Kennedy Chandler, Jevon Carter, Delon Wright, Steph Curry, Tyler Ennis and Alex Caruso. He is not a volume shooter at all, but he is a crafty guard who I think is at minimum a Jevon Carter. Given the list of players, I could see Toronto having interest in this high level POA defender, who takes care of the ball and can shoot it a bit. He looks like a bigger Fred VanVleet. Given that he played at Virginia which is a snails pace, he should thrive in Toronto which should open up his game a bit more.

Read on Twitter

Notable guys with almost exactly the same stats and advanced stats as Beekman: Jamal Shead.

Shead is a very good defender and playmaker but I am not as sure about his size and shot. You watch a lot of Houston. What is your take on Shead? Is he draftable?