2025 NBA Draft Prospect Part 2

[Jerry Lucas]

My tier 2 is starting to solidify itself at the top of this draft:

1) Flagg

2) Harper
3) Kasparas
4) Edgecombe

Asa Newell could crack my tier 2 if he can improve his AST% and FTr.

The Bailey boys are probably going to come at me again, but for me Ace would pretty much have to do the same thing as Newell to get into tier 2 at this point, because even during his hot streak that started when the calendar flipped to 2025, his AST% is only 7.5% and his FTr is only 30.5 (plus his AST/TO ratio is still pretty bad at only 0.6 even during this hot streak). And his production on the season in these areas is obviously even worse.

These red flags in their production (if they hold) suggest a lack of upside for both Bailey and Newell. These guys could both be high floor players though.

As long as this team ends up with a top 5 pick they should be guaranteed to land 1 of these guys, because Ace probably goes no lower than 4th, meaning 1 of them should drop to pick 5.

Also in regards to Edgecombe, I've seen many suggest that Edgecombe lacks upside. I heavily disagree with this. While he also has a high floor, IMO the only college prospect in this draft with more upside than him is Flagg. My guess is the upside doubts were just because he started slow offensively though, and people will start coming around.

[RoteSchroder]

My tier 2 is starting to solidify itself at the top of this draft:

1) Flagg

2) Harper
3) Kasparas
4) Edgecombe

Asa Newell could crack my tier 2 if he can improve his AST% and FTr.

The Bailey boys are probably going to come at me again, but for me Ace would pretty much have to do the same thing as Newell to get into tier 2 at this point, because even during his hot streak that started when the calendar flipped to 2025, his AST% is only 7.5% and his FTr is only 30.5 (plus his AST/TO ratio is still pretty bad at only 0.6 even during this hot streak). And his production on the season in these areas is obviously even worse.

These red flags in their production (if they hold) suggest a lack of upside for both Bailey and Newell. These guys could both be high floor players though.

As long as this team ends up with a top 5 pick they should be guaranteed to land 1 of these guys, because Ace probably goes no lower than 4th, meaning 1 of them should drop to pick 5.

Also in regards to Edgecombe, I've seen many suggest that Edgecombe lacks upside. I heavily disagree with this. While he also has a high floor, IMO the only college prospect in this draft with more upside than him is Flagg. My guess is the upside doubts were just because he started slow offensively though, and posters will start coming around.

Even with the weaknesses, I think a 6’10 athletic Buddy Hield with shot blocking ability is pretty appealing. You just limit his role to a pure scorer and initiate the offense through a PG or playmaker.

Specialists can be more useful than all-round guys who aren’t particularly elite at anything.

I’m good with any of the guys you mentioned + Ace, main problem is getting to the top 5

[Brinbe]

Good afternoon for prospect watching

Michigan-Rutgers 3:30
Kansas-Baylor 4:00
UNC-Duke 6:30

[BoyzNTheHood]

Love this kid. So talented, so aggressive.

Read on Twitter

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[TNRaps4life]

Respect your opinion but it is obvious you do not watch Rutgers. Ace will go #2 and I pray he lands with the Raptors . 6'10 scorer that plays defence . These are his high school stats that translate.


,"After his freshman year, he moved to Powder Springs, Georgia and enrolled at McEachern High School.Bailey averaged 22 points, 14 rebounds, three assists, and four blocks per game as a junior.Regarded as the No. 2 prospect in the Class of 2024 according to 247Sports, Bailey improved his stats to 32.5 points, 15.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 2.4 blocks per contest."

My tier 2 is starting to solidify itself at the top of this draft:

1) Flagg

2) Harper
3) Kasparas
4) Edgecombe

Asa Newell could crack my tier 2 if he can improve his AST% and FTr.

The Bailey boys are probably going to come at me again, but for me Ace would pretty much have to do the same thing as Newell to get into tier 2 at this point, because even during his hot streak that started when the calendar flipped to 2025, his AST% is only 7.5% and his FTr is only 30.5 (plus his AST/TO ratio is still pretty bad at only 0.6 even during this hot streak). And his production on the season in these areas is obviously even worse.

These red flags in their production (if they hold) suggest a lack of upside for both Bailey and Newell. These guys could both be high floor players though.

As long as this team ends up with a top 5 pick they should be guaranteed to land 1 of these guys, because Ace probably goes no lower than 4th, meaning 1 of them should drop to pick 5.

Also in regards to Edgecombe, I've seen many suggest that Edgecombe lacks upside. I heavily disagree with this. While he also has a high floor, IMO the only college prospect in this draft with more upside than him is Flagg. My guess is the upside doubts were just because he started slow offensively though, and people will start coming around.

[Syd-TK3]

My tier 2 is starting to solidify itself at the top of this draft:

1) Flagg

2) Harper
3) Kasparas
4) Edgecombe

Asa Newell could crack my tier 2 if he can improve his AST% and FTr.

The Bailey boys are probably going to come at me again, but for me Ace would pretty much have to do the same thing as Newell to get into tier 2 at this point, because even during his hot streak that started when the calendar flipped to 2025, his AST% is only 7.5% and his FTr is only 30.5 (plus his AST/TO ratio is still pretty bad at only 0.6 even during this hot streak). And his production on the season in these areas is obviously even worse.

These red flags in their production (if they hold) suggest a lack of upside for both Bailey and Newell. These guys could both be high floor players though.

As long as this team ends up with a top 5 pick they should be guaranteed to land 1 of these guys, because Ace probably goes no lower than 4th, meaning 1 of them should drop to pick 5.

Also in regards to Edgecombe, I've seen many suggest that Edgecombe lacks upside. I heavily disagree with this. While he also has a high floor, IMO the only college prospect in this draft with more upside than him is Flagg. My guess is the upside doubts were just because he started slow offensively though, and posters will start coming around.

Even with the weaknesses, I think a 6’10 athletic Buddy Hield with shot blocking ability is pretty appealing. You just limit his role to a pure scorer and initiate the offense through a PG or playmaker.

Specialists can be more useful than all-round guys who aren’t particularly elite at anything.

I’m good with any of the guys you mentioned + Ace, main problem is getting to the top 5

Lol Ace went from MPJ to 6'10 Gary Trent to 6'10 Buddy Hield

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Ace is going to look much better in the NBA.

The stuff he does at an elite level cant be taught, but stuff like playmaking and ballhandling can. He's already someone who plays hard, is a decent helpside shot blocker and is a good rebounder. The jump shotmaking is in a class of its own.

RJ's passing is night and day from NY. Demar's handle since his final Raps season to now is night and day from when he came into the league. Same with Pascal and even OG to a lesser extent. Even someone like Jalen Green has much better feel for the game now vs when he entered the league.

I can see what the advanced stats say but you're not going to convince any GM to take Asa Newell over a 18 year old that can score 40 while being doubled every other possession all without taking more than 3 dribbles in any of his possessions. If you believe in your developmental system, you can improve the playmaking, decision making and ball handling. He's also from all accounts a gym rat and coachable.

I love Kasparas and Edgecombe but neither are touching Ace in 4 years I'd bet

[Jstock12]

Love this kid. So talented, so aggressive.

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Those are some impressive highlights, why the hell is this guy not being projected in the top10? Only because he's 22?

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Love this kid. So talented, so aggressive.

Read on Twitter

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Those are some impressive highlights, why the hell is this guy not being projected in the top10? Only because he's 22?

Davion Mitchell probably given GMs PTSD. 22 years old and isn't completing destroying the NCAA. He's a SRP at best because everyone in the league is way better than what he's facing and he's only putting up 43/38/80 splits.

[RoteSchroder]

My tier 2 is starting to solidify itself at the top of this draft:

1) Flagg

2) Harper
3) Kasparas
4) Edgecombe

Asa Newell could crack my tier 2 if he can improve his AST% and FTr.

The Bailey boys are probably going to come at me again, but for me Ace would pretty much have to do the same thing as Newell to get into tier 2 at this point, because even during his hot streak that started when the calendar flipped to 2025, his AST% is only 7.5% and his FTr is only 30.5 (plus his AST/TO ratio is still pretty bad at only 0.6 even during this hot streak). And his production on the season in these areas is obviously even worse.

These red flags in their production (if they hold) suggest a lack of upside for both Bailey and Newell. These guys could both be high floor players though.

As long as this team ends up with a top 5 pick they should be guaranteed to land 1 of these guys, because Ace probably goes no lower than 4th, meaning 1 of them should drop to pick 5.

Also in regards to Edgecombe, I've seen many suggest that Edgecombe lacks upside. I heavily disagree with this. While he also has a high floor, IMO the only college prospect in this draft with more upside than him is Flagg. My guess is the upside doubts were just because he started slow offensively though, and posters will start coming around.

Even with the weaknesses, I think a 6’10 athletic Buddy Hield with shot blocking ability is pretty appealing. You just limit his role to a pure scorer and initiate the offense through a PG or playmaker.

Specialists can be more useful than all-round guys who aren’t particularly elite at anything.

I’m good with any of the guys you mentioned + Ace, main problem is getting to the top 5

Lol Ace went from MPJ to 6'10 Gary Trent to 6'10 Buddy Hield

I never compared him to MPJr, I went with GTJr and Hield because both are/were more explosive scorers, but with tunnel vision and can shoot you out of a game on a bad day.

MPJr’s play style isn’t someone who’s gonna volume chuck up shots and seems mostly off-ball.

Both GTJr and Hield have 40 point games for example, MPJr has zero.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Love this kid. So talented, so aggressive.

Read on Twitter

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Those are some impressive highlights, why the hell is this guy not being projected in the top10? Only because he's 22?

He’s impressive but the level of competition is weak, and he’s having a breakout senior season. Before this year he wasn’t that impressive. I’d take a 2nd round flyer on him and see what I get.

[Yallbecrazy]

For the Bailey stans, what makes him a better prospect than Marvin Bagley?

Besides hitting contested shots (which was also a Bagley strength) is there anything he is better at in college?

[Jstock12]

Love this kid. So talented, so aggressive.

Read on Twitter

?s=46&t=iDergfyDJveIq9pY2qCCBQ

Those are some impressive highlights, why the hell is this guy not being projected in the top10? Only because he's 22?

He’s impressive but the level of competition is weak, and he’s having a breakout senior season. Before this year he wasn’t that impressive. I’d take a 2nd round flyer on him and see what I get.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Those are some impressive highlights, why the hell is this guy not being projected in the top10? Only because he's 22?

He’s impressive but the level of competition is weak, and he’s having a breakout senior season. Before this year he wasn’t that impressive. I’d take a 2nd round flyer on him and see what I get.

nbadraft.net comparison: Michael Jordan with a jumpshot…



Probably.

[dozo]

For the Bailey stans, what makes him a better prospect than Marvin Bagley?

Besides hitting contested shots (which was also a Bagley strength) is there anything he is better at in college?

They play different positions, so direct comparisons are tricky.

The ability to score both on and off the ball set him apart.

Bagley is an offensive-minded power forward and small-ball center, defense being a major weakness.

The key question is whether Ace can be a present day NBA first option (scorer, distributor).

[Jerry Lucas]

One thing that really stands out to me about Kasparas is how high both his 3PAr and FTr are (both currently sit at .507). I feel like this is something you just don't see often, the amount he's getting to the line despite how much of his shot diet consists of 3P attempts.

I remember when Brandon Miller stood out in a similar way to me during the 2023 draft cycle, but his FTr was .329 relative to his 3PAr of .535. For both rates to be as high as they are for Kasparas seems kinda crazy to me.

I did a little more digging into this so I'm following up this post by replying to myself. I wanted to see just how rare it is what Kasparas is doing by making a query on Torvik to filter for multiple aspects of his production that stand out to me other than just his 3PAr and FTr both being high. The results shocked me:

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=24&minusage=25&minGP=1&minTS=60&minOR=1&minDR=9&minAst=25&minATO=1&mintp100=8.5&minftr=30&mingbpm=9&year=all&minmin=60&start=-11101&end=all0501

Query filters:
Min% ≥ 60
Usage ≥ 25
TS% ≥ 60
Off Reb % ≥ 1; Def Reb % ≥ 9 (OReb% + DReb% ≥ 10)
Assist % ≥ 25
Ast/TO Ratio ≥ 1
3PA/100 Poss ≥ 8.5
Free Throw Rate ≥ 30
Box +/- ≥ 9

What Kasparas Jakucionis is doing as an 18 year old freshman right now has never been seen before by Torvik's database. His list of production comparables from any class are:
-Sophomore James Harden
-Junior Steph Curry
-Junior Jalen Brunson
-Junior Reggie Jackson
-Redshirt Junior Damian Lillard (so he was senior aged)
-And a couple of actual seniors (1 of them being Payton Pritchard)

Something else that stood out to me but I didn't filter for on this query: Sophomore Harden (2.9), Junior Curry (4.5), and Kasparas (4) are the only ones with a dBPM of 2 or higher. Junior Brunson was also just short with a 1.7 dBPM.

I'm going to stake a big claim here which I usually don't do, so feel free to dunk on me with this receipt when and if I'm wrong: Kasparas Jakucionis is going to be a perennial All-Star in the NBA (and maybe even a perennial All-NBA player too).

[TNRaps4life]

Ace can't drive they say.. Ace...

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[Psubs]

One thing that really stands out to me about Kasparas is how high both his 3PAr and FTr are (both currently sit at .507). I feel like this is something you just don't see often, the amount he's getting to the line despite how much of his shot diet consists of 3P attempts.

I remember when Brandon Miller stood out in a similar way to me during the 2023 draft cycle, but his FTr was .329 relative to his 3PAr of .535. For both rates to be as high as they are for Kasparas seems kinda crazy to me.

I did a little more digging into this so I'm following up this post by replying to myself. I wanted to see just how rare it is what Kasparas is doing by making a query on Torvik to filter for multiple aspects of his production that stand out to me other than just his 3PAr and FTr both being high. The results shocked me:

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=24&minusage=25&minGP=1&minTS=60&minOR=1&minDR=9&minAst=25&minATO=1&mintp100=8.5&minftr=30&mingbpm=9&year=all&minmin=60&start=-11101&end=all0501

Query filters:
Min% ≥ 60
Usage ≥ 25
TS% ≥ 60
Off Reb % ≥ 1; Def Reb % ≥ 9 (OReb% + DReb% ≥ 10)
Assist % ≥ 25
Ast/TO Ratio ≥ 1
3PA/100 Poss ≥ 8.5
Free Throw Rate ≥ 30
Box +/- ≥ 9

What Kasparas Jakucionis is doing as an 18 year old freshman right now has never been seen before by Torvik's database. His list of production comparables from any class are:
-Sophomore James Harden
-Junior Steph Curry
-Junior Jalen Brunson
-Junior Reggie Jackson
-Redshirt Junior Damian Lillard (so he was senior aged)
-And a couple of actual seniors (1 of them being Payton Pritchard)

Something else that stood out to me but I didn't filter for on this query: Sophomore Harden (2.9), Junior Curry (4.5), and Kasparas (4) are the only ones with a dBPM of 2 or higher. Junior Brunson was also just short with a 1.7 dBPM.

I'm going to stake a big claim here which I usually don't do, so feel free to dunk on me with this receipt when and if I'm wrong: Kasparas Jakucionis is going to be a perennial All-Star in the NBA (and maybe even a perennial All-NBA player too).

I don't think he did well with Tomislav out. Misses the PnR big. Maybe since he picks and pops a lot, that frees up the lane for Jak.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Rutgers' offensive sets make no sense. I have no idea why Bailey and Harper chose to go there.

[TNRaps4life]

Rutgers' offensive sets make no sense. I have no idea why Bailey and Harper chose to go there.

You got that right. NIL money .