Dr Mufasa wrote:This matches up exactly with what I took from the clips I've seen in him. There's no way I would take this guy anywhere higher than something like the 14th or 15th pick. He's a classic big man project. Has the length and mobility and good hands but that's about it. The team that takes him will likely get at least 1 or 2 years of a tall guy who gets pushed around, fouls too much and doesn't know how to play basketball. From there he'll either figure it out and become a starter or flame out of the NBA. He's the kind of player you take when you have nothing to lose. I could see a case for him as a #25 type prospect like where BJ Mullens went. That kind of throwing a dart and hoping it sticks pick.
I'd also seriously worry about his future in terms of confidence and mental strength. He'll be an 18 year old kid travelling halfway around to the world to an NBA team, where he'll be an outsider and the Euro guy in the lockerroom - and more than that, will face all kinds of pressure to live up to his top 5 pick billing right away. The media will all doubt him early in his career. If he looks like a bust he'll get a ton of heat. I believe in terms of confidence he'd be much better off learning to play basketball in Europe until he's ready. Bring him over next year and he'll be getting pushed around and fouling too much and missing layups will be called the next Darko disaster by everyone who's impatient. Not a good recipe.
All I can say is good luck David Kahn or Geoff Petrie, if you want a tall Euro project like JV in the top 5. There's no way in hell I'd take him that high.
This line of thinking makes sense to me too. I'm sensing a best case scenario of Andris Biedrins rebounding with Jason Thompson finishing around the rim and perhaps the ability to hit an open jump shot and shoot free throws well.
I'm trying to think of some historical precedent for a player without a freakish build/athleticism combination or a ton of polish in the post going top 5 and struggling. Most C prospects taken top 5 have more polish than he does or elite size/athleticism that some GMS just couldn't resist Dwight Howard, Hasheem Thabeet, Demarcus Cousins, etc all come to mind for various reasons. Polished Cs that weren't super old like Bogut, Okafor, Ming all went high because they still had room to grow and we're already "can't miss."
But guys that don't seem to have that freakish size/build/athleticism or polish tend to drop past 10 looking at recent draft history. Even a guy like Joakim Noah, who scouts had a lot more time with, and who was heralded after winning the NCAA championship and then choosing to stay for another year... still dropped to 9th. Aldrich dropped to 11th. Brook Lopez dropped to 10th. Jason Thompson was taken 12th. Robin Lopez was taken 16th. Anthony Randolph was taken 14th. Andris Biedrins was taken 11th.
And there have been plenty others like that as well. There's a lot to like about Valancianus but he and Kanter both seem like the kind of players that should be taken in the 8-13 range rather than top 5. I know this draft isn't great but I think it's better than having to take a flyer on either of those guys with a top 5 pick.
K. Irving
D. Williams/Sullinger
H. Barnes/P. Jones
I think that's going to eventually become the consensus top 5. Irving is shaping up to be the clear-cut #1. The team picking 2nd will think long and hard between all 4 of the fab freshmen and a combination of some big tournament performances as well as the individual workouts will determine more than anything we can say right now but I just don't see Valancianus or Kanter coming in and wowing more in a private workout than any of those 5 names.
