WuTang_OG wrote:douggood wrote:The Duke wrote:
There's no extra pieces from Miami coming.
Toronto agreed to the package likely.
If Toronto can't reflip assets, it's not Miami's fault.
I think Dragic enters the traded deadline in a Raptors uniform
i am inclined to believe there is some truth to the rumor that heat will improve the deal (a little bit, very little) if they cant find a destination for dragic.
the reason i think there could be some truth to it, because there is an incompleteness to the reporting, we dont know kyles exact number, no firm reports that its just dragic and achiuwa,
Precisely.Options for sign-and-trade
The basics of the Lowry deal have been reported. They are incomplete, possibly on a few fronts.
The first has to do with Lowry’s contract. It was reported as three years, $90 million. While agents sometimes leak rounded-up or even inflated numbers, that exact figure is not possible under the reported terms of the deal. Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa are the outbound pieces, and they make a combined $22.15 million. That allows the Heat to take back a first-year salary of $27.79 million for Lowry, which would let him earn $87.54 million on a three-year deal.
Maybe that’s close enough; $87.54 million to $90 million could be loose language in the reporting chain, and even that amount is far more than we expected Lowry to receive in guaranteed money. My belief remains that the early Lowry-Heat leaks were in part to see if other teams would offer more guarantee in a third year. A sign-and-trade has to be for at least three seasons, only the first of which has to be fully guaranteed. Lowry couldn’t feasibly get a fourth year due to the (convoluted) Over-38 Rule, so the main way of convincing Lowry would have been with the highest guarantee possible on a three-year term.
If Lowry truly is earning $90 million, it would require the Heat to include KZ Okpala, a decent prospect making $1.78 million. The guess here is that the Heat prefer to keep Okpala for inexpensive depth and Lowry is earning slightly less than reported.
It is not yet clear what draft compensation is accompanying Achiuwa to Toronto for facilitating and possibly taking on Dragic’s $19.44 million salary. The Heat can’t trade a first-round pick that conveys sooner than 2025, and even that date would be contingent on an earlier pick they owe to convey by 2023. They also only have a 2022 second-round pick (the worse of Philadelphia or Denver’s pick, so something in the 50s) or their own 2028 second-round pick to deal. Not exactly a massive haul, however it shakes out.
Two questions flow next: Are Achiuwa and some deep future picks enough for the Raptors to have played ball here? And what happens with Dragic?
The second question could inform the first. It was initially presumed Dragic would be routed elsewhere, either via a second trade or expanding the Lowry deal into a three-teamer. Dragic has been open about wanting to play in Dallas, and the Raptors would gladly send him there if it returned assets. A package of Dwight Powell and either Willie Cauley-Stein, Maxi Kleber or Dorian Finney-Smith works for cap math and satisfies the Raptors’ depth concerns at centre, but it leaves the Mavericks quite thin, especially inside. Dallas could conceivably find a fourth team that can throw better-fitting assets Toronto’s way, possibly absorbed to Dallas via trade exception first or for Kleber. The Mavericks have a better-stocked draft-pick cupboard, but their willingness to add Dragic will only go so far in asset terms. Toronto could also look to another team with cap space or that missed on the other point guards.
Basically, the Raptors’ options with Dragic are:
Find a team that wants Dragic and can offer assets more in line with Toronto’s needs and preferences. This sacrifices the cap space the Raptors would have had without Lowry on the books, but maximizing that space always meant also sacrificing Chris Boucher and the midlevel exception, and I’m not sure that player is out there any longer.
Find a team that can take Dragic into space. This limits Toronto’s monetary obligation and keeps its cap sheet more flexible, but it will likely return fewer assets. Dragic at $19.44 million for one year is roughly a neutral asset, so I’m skeptical teams are willing to attach heavy pick or prospect capital for him. (You still try, of course.) New Orleans could be a prime target here, expanding its earlier deal with Memphis to make everything fit in a much larger framework.
Hold Dragic. There would be no reason to buy Dragic out in the short term. Teams only get cap relief for the portion a player gives back, and short of Dragic giving up eight figures to be a free agent, it’s hard to see it being worthwhile. The Raptors could plug Dragic into the rotation as a quality veteran and revisit deals at the trade deadline. This would take the Raptors out of the cap space game too, meaning any remaining additions would come via the midlevel, biannual and minimum exceptions.
The Raptors probably have plans in place for all three paths; there’s just no sense in moving on to Option 3 until you’ve exhausted Options 1 and 2.
I believe Lowry can have up to 10% raise per year, meaning his contract can be 90m [27.79m, 30m, 32.21m] with only Dragic and Achiuwa.
The second question perhaps it has to do with roster spots?
Siakam, OG, VanVleet, Trent, Boucher, Flynn, Watanabe, Gillespie, Barnes, Achiuwa, Dekker, David Johnson, Banton, Powell = 14 out of 17 spots. With 3 spots, and outside of Banton and David Johnson, I am unsure anyone else can be used with the 2-way contract (Gillespie?). If we need to add another big C or a scoring guard, then we have no roster spot.
