Vampirate wrote:OakleyDokely wrote:HumbleRen wrote:
Having a jump shot opens up his first step so you're probably right.
Right now, defenders are playing off on Barnes, giving him the jump shot. If Barnes develops that midrange game like Kawhi did, it's scary to think what he could become because he's already pretty elite around the rim.
Here's an odd stat for you
From 10 feet to the 3 point line, Barnes is shooting 20.4% of his total shots and is getting it in at about a 39.05% clip.
At the 3 point line Barnes is shooting 20.6% of his shots at a 29.8% clip.
Barnes efficiency from inside the 3 point line and outside the 3 point line is drastic, he basically shoots 10% better once he's inside the three point line, even for stuff like long 2 point shots.
For some reason if Barnes takes a step inside the 3 point line he straight up becomes a better shooter this year.
Everything there makes sense except the difference between long 2 and 3s.
On the other hand you could say if his percentages are good from anywhere inside the line, he should have an easy time improving from long range.
Not as big a difference to Paul George's rookie season though shooting 48% on long 2s and 30% from 3. He later settled in as a 38% career 3pt shooter.
Rookie Chris Paul was shooting 44% on long 2s and only 28% on 3s. So these things tend to catch up.
Rookie Kevin Durant was shooting 42% on long 2s and 29% on 3s.
But I think the sample size plays a big role here. Barnes takes only about 40% the attempts on long 2s that he took on 3s.
So I think this is a bit flukey. If you let him shoot more long 2s, his efficiency might go down to 34-35% from there and then it would be perfectly balanced.
What you notice though is that Barnes is not comfortable with any 3 pointer.
He can still miss badly in the mid range but when he isn't rushed from mid range he can dribble with the ball, then pull up and knock it down. So it's just a matter of doing the same from 3 and expanding the range.
There are a lot of things to like with his shooting splits.
70/50 from short distance is elite
40/38 from midrange is competent
30 from 3 is bad but that's the only main glaring weakness
And as pointed out above, if there is a significant difference between long 2s and 3s it usually evens out as soon as next year.
Say he is a 70/50/40/40/35 shooter next season with increased volume from 3, you are looking at 58-60% TS and a well above average shooter. And that is a reasonable if not likely expectation.
We know his long range shot is being developed like Siakam who shot 33/22 from long 2s and 3s in year 2 and then improved to 44/37 in year 3.
If everything works out perfectly for Scottie, he might even become a 75/50/45/45/37 and 62-65% TS scorer next season but that's an incredibly lofty expectation.
But a slightly increased mid range % on higher volume and 35% from 3 on higher volume is very realistic to me.
The thing you worry about usually are holes in scoring. It's usually not gradually getting worse further away from the basket because a lot of players suck from the 3-10 range which limits their ceiling. That's the biggest advantage Scottie has.
Example Jalen Green. Will be an elite shooter but has zero touch in the paint when he can't dunk.
