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Summertime doesn't officially start until June 20 according to the pesky calendar, but why hold off on the hoopla?
Why, indeed, when so many NBA front offices are already forecasting a significant amount of trade activity that could very well involve Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, Phoenix's Kevin Durant and maybe even a Boston Celtic or two.
The Summer of Trades.
That is what many teams out there are bracing for ... whether both of the aforementioned All-Stars — or neither — wind up on the open market.
"It’s gonna be a crazy summer," one Western Conference executive projects. "There’s going to be a lot of movement."
"Trades are going to be the marquee aspect because there's a number of high-level players [available] and there aren’t really any marquee free agents," adds another team's salary cap strategist.
The seemingly wide-open nature of a league about to crown its seventh new champion in a span of seven seasons — which is an NBA first— has certainly helped fuel a more widespread go-for-it mentality.
The cap strategist’s point is rather important here, too. We have already grown accustomed in recent years to the most significant roster changes in #thisleague taking place via trades rather than free agency. More recently, on top of the steady uptick in veteran players signing extensions with their incumbent teams, we're seeing prominent players push for trades to a new team they know is prepared to reward them.
Example No. 1: Jimmy Butler getting dealt from Miami to Golden State.
Example No. 2: Brandon Ingram being moved from New Orleans to Toronto.
Both players not only found new homes at the trade deadline in February but promptly landed multi-year deals with their new teams after notably not inking extensions with their previous clubs.
Their cases have only added to a rising trend. Call it yet another layer to what has become known as pre-agency that no longer waits for July 1: You get your money up front … or you find another team that’s prepared to foot the bill.
Under the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, there were an average of two veteran extensions completed per season. Under the 2017 CBA, that annual average rose to 10 veteran extensions. Since the latest labor agreement was instituted in July 2023, we've seen an average of 20 players sign veteran extensions per season, according to data obtained by The Stein Line.
It's a staggering increase that doesn’t even include rookie-scale or designated player extensions. And as a result we're repeatedly left with very few marquee names that actually hit free agency.
The Clippers' James Harden, Dallas' Kyrie Irving and the Lakers' LeBron James all have the ability to become free agents in late June, but all three are widely expected to remain with their current clubs. If Minnesota's Julius Randle picks up his player option for next season or strikes a new deal to stick with the Timberwolves, that could leave Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner as this summer's marquee free agent ... not that anyone really expects Turner to leave the Pacers, either. Not after Indiana A) was largely unwilling, according to league sources, to include him in trade conversations during the season and B) just moved to the brink of a trip to the NBA Finals with a Game 4 victory Tuesday night over New York to take a 3-1 lead in the Eastern Conference finals.
Factor in the limited amount of salary cap space available this summer for outright signings and you have yet another considerable catalyst for trade activity. The Brooklyn Nets are currently the league's only team on course to have a difference-making amount of cap space to spend this summer. This is not hyperbole.
Detroit could theoretically create roughly $14 million in salary cap space ... but also realistically cannot do so if it hopes to re-sign veterans such as Malik Beasley and Dennis Schroder after both contributed so much to the Pistons' return to the playoff stage.
Memphis likewise has pathways to create some decent cap space, but the Grizzlies' priorities are making sure they have enough flexibility to renegotiate and extend Jaren Jackson Jr.'s contract and, if possible, re-sign Santi Aldama.
Two-thirds of the league will begin the new salary cap year underneath the luxury tax line, which could likewise help fuel some sign-and-trade activity. Golden State's Jonathan Kuminga, to name one prominent example, might need the sign-and-trade route to finally land the sort of contract he seeks.
Nets GM Sean Marks has chased restricted free agents before, like Otto Porter Jr. and Allen Crabbe, but what if the Nets decline to extend offer sheets to RFAs this summer? Kuminga in particular would be all but forced to find a sign-and-trade.
Chicago's Josh Giddey and Philadelphia's Quentin Grimes are two more restricted free agents soon to face their own challenges in this marketplace. Sources say Philadelphia has ongoing confidence in its ability to re-sign Grimes, but let's see. Ditto for the Bulls and Giddey coming to terms on the five-year pact that the Aussie playmaker is said to be seeking which is routinely projected to land at no less than $120 million.
An additional potential boost for those of you rooting for trades: Teams positioned under the first apron will have more flexibility than ever before under this new CBA to utilize any previously created trade exception to take back more salary than they send out. The specific rule in question is wonky to explain, but non-apron teams will be allowed this offseason to take in $8.5 million more than they send out in deals by taking advantage of expanded salary-matching bands … although such maneuvers do trigger a hard cap at the first apron that creates its own complications.
In theory that enables a non-apron team to absorb a more expensive player essentially in exchange for draft compensation — similar to the math Washington and Milwaukee employed during the season when the Bucks shipped out Khris Middleton and his $31 million salary and brought back the lesser-paid Kyle Kuzma on a $23 million salary.
Twelve teams, furthermore, will have access to their full midlevel exception this summer, which can also be deployed like a trade exception to take on extra salary in a deal. Roughly 12 more teams, with some creative roster tinkering, could also gain access to their full $14.1 million midlevel. Hopefully you'll recall from our past reporting (see below) that seven teams used at least some portion of their midlevel exception to facilitate trades leading up to February’s in-season deadline.
Jake Fischer Latest: Three-team (and larger) trades are only becoming more common
Three of the loudest moves at this season's trade deadline all required multiteam trades. Luka Dončić and Anthony Davis couldn't have been swapped without one. Ditto for Jimmy Butler finally exiting South Beach in a five-team extravaganza. De'Aaron Fox and Zach LaVine needed their own three-team deal to switch teams.
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The trade levers, as you can see, are plentiful. And they're going to be pulled.
Chatter about what looms is naturally getting louder leaguewide as the season’s on-court playoff conclusions draw near, but don’t forget that Los Angeles Lakers president of basketball operations Rob Pelinka spelled out the way many teams see it as far back his end-of-season news conference on May 1.
"I think this offseason, too, there's going to be a lot of movement around the NBA," Pelinka said. "It just feels that way. There's so many aggressive leaders of organizations that are expecting, now, success. And so I think there will be a lot of opportunities for us to look at — I really do. I'm excited about the offseason and what'll come our way."
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