2023 Draft Discussion Part 6

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

If Podziemski were like 15% more athletic than he is (who is to say with NBA training he can't improve as an athlete) what is holding him back from being the #1 guard in the entire class? He is there in the conversation at 13 for me.

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look at this filthy pass

the kid is unreal and still being undervalued. SIX YEARS playing competitive basketball.

Cissoko makes the same passes, in an OG frame.

I prefer Cissoko too but the difference is, Pod can actually shoot which opens up even more passing lanes lol.

Podziemski has elements of Steph Curry and Jalen Brunson in his game. To execute those elements at the NBA level on a consistent enough basis to become a star player is an entirely different discussion but many stylistic similarities are there. If he can manage to improve his athleticism and become a tireless worker who wants to perfect his craft as much and them he has the tools to become an NBA All-Star. He is an immaculate shooter. I will live and die with Podziemski but as I pointed out with the Flynn vs. Desmond Bane situation Masai might overlook him. All we hear about Podziemski is how NBA execs love him, barely any negative news, he comes across as a well spoken and intelligent person and student of the game and the knocks on him are the knocks that make people discount and overlook players, they convince themselves "yeah he's good but we just can't draft him before this other prospect because the other prospect is a better athlete and has higher upside" even though the other prospect only has half the basketball talent and IQ that Podziemski does.

[WuTang_CMB]

For the analytics crowd:

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Leonard Miller grading extremely well with this model.

Underrated

[niQ]

Would you guys consider any of Bufkin, Wallace, or George to be Raptors-y players? Probably not right? Unless you consider Cason's 6'8.5 wingspan big for a PG his size.

Really want one of those 3. Can only hope it was a smokescreen from Webster...

After drafting Flynn, what's a Raptors-y pick? Analytics with IBM Watson?

Was thinking 6'7-6'9 with 7+ wingspan. Like Coulibaly or L. Miller.

But actually looking back, we did draft guys like Jalen Harris and David Johnson. SO maybe there is hope for 1 of those 3.

[Psubs]

For the analytics crowd:

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Leonard Miller grading extremely well with this model.

Cool to see Tubelis at #22. Dang Bufkin at #28. Where is TJD?

[Yallbecrazy]

kevin pelton stats based projections\

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/37847803/nba-draft-2023-breaking-30-best-prospects

1. Victor Wembanyama : 3.9 WARP
2. Brandon Miller : 3.5 WARP
3. Cam Whitmore : 3.2 WARP
4. Taylor Hendricks 2.7 WARP
5. Gradey Dick 2.6 WARP
6. Cason Wallace 2.6 WARP
7. Dereck Lively II 2.4 WARP
8. Jarace Walker 2.3 WARP
9. Brandin Podziemski 2.3 WARP
10. Brice Sensabaugh 2.2 WARP
11. Dariq Whitehead 2.1 WARP
12. Keyonte George 2.1 WARP
13. Scoot Henderson 2.1 WARP

I find it weird that Whitmore is #1 based on stats for Pelton. His 6.2 BPM is decent and the assists and turnovers are a redflag. I assume it's because he's one of the youngest guys in the draft, but only his 2pt% was really good and everything else was just decent.

[TronoWrappers]

Here is Jesse Fischer's model from 2022 FWIW:

[HumbleRen]

Here is Jesse Fischer's model from 2022 FWIW:

[Mark_83]

Would you guys consider any of Bufkin, Wallace, or George to be Raptors-y players? Probably not right? Unless you consider Cason's 6'8.5 wingspan big for a PG his size.

Really want one of those 3. Can only hope it was a smokescreen from Webster...

After drafting Flynn, what's a Raptors-y pick? Analytics with IBM Watson?

Was thinking 6'7-6'9 with 7+ wingspan. Like Coulibaly or L. Miller.

But actually looking back, we did draft guys like Jalen Harris and David Johnson. SO maybe there is hope for 1 of those 3.

A "Raptory" pick isn't just about wingspan or any one quality. It's a constellation of attributes that the Raptors look for. They don't need to possess every single one.

High character/work ethic/coachable
High IQ/feel for the game
Positional size
+ Length
Good defensively
Year-over-year improvement
Positive analytical markers
Offensive upside

[BoyzNTheHood]

Here is Jesse Fischer's model from 2022 FWIW:

Really inconsistent so far. Maybe if he has an older model it would give us better insight. But there’s no model that hits 100% or even close to it.

[Rapsfan07]

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If the Jazz move up somehow to package 9 and 16 to get 7,

I would be really interested in OG for Mathurin+#16+#29+@

I have to imagine that Indiana will not be offering Mathurin as it doesn't make sense for them if the goal is to build a contender.

The package Masai would likely ask for is Hield (good GTJ insurance), #7, #16 & #29, contingent on whether or not OG would be willing to sign an extension.

Not to nitpick, as I think the value is correct, but I can't see us wanting 4 first round picks in this draft, unless we were to flip #16 and #29 for future picks from another team, or just ask for future picks from Indy.

I could see us preferring a trade of OG for Hield, Nembhard, and #7, letting Indy keep #16 and #29.

I think it's unlikely to expect OG to sign an extension, but I do think his bird rights would have a lot of value to any team acquiring him.

Not bad actually. I'd give this a hard look and probably still want #29 but I'd settle for this.

[gerrit4]

After drafting Flynn, what's a Raptors-y pick? Analytics with IBM Watson?

Was thinking 6'7-6'9 with 7+ wingspan. Like Coulibaly or L. Miller.

But actually looking back, we did draft guys like Jalen Harris and David Johnson. SO maybe there is hope for 1 of those 3.

A "Raptory" pick isn't just about wingspan or any one quality. It's a constellation of attributes that the Raptors look for. They don't need to possess every single one.

High character/work ethic/coachable
High IQ/feel for the game
Positional size
+ Length
Good defensively
Year-over-year improvement
Positive analytical markers
Offensive upside

I'd argue that Lowry was one of the most "Raptors-y" players ever (aside from length), so to me, Cason Wallace would be a very "Raptors-y" pick.

[Mark_83]

We don't have a pick to take him with, nor the positional need, but I've been circling back on TJD and aside from age, I don't really see much that separates him from a guy like Bam Adebayo. They're nearly identical in size, length, and weight, and both play a kind of hybrid 4/5 game as rim runners who can also make great short roll passes. A playoff team is going to snag a really good player late in the first.

[WuTang_CMB]

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[Yallbecrazy]

After drafting Flynn, what's a Raptors-y pick? Analytics with IBM Watson?

Was thinking 6'7-6'9 with 7+ wingspan. Like Coulibaly or L. Miller.

But actually looking back, we did draft guys like Jalen Harris and David Johnson. SO maybe there is hope for 1 of those 3.

A "Raptory" pick isn't just about wingspan or any one quality. It's a constellation of attributes that the Raptors look for. They don't need to possess every single one.

High character/work ethic/coachable
High IQ/feel for the game
Positional size
+ Length
Good defensively
Year-over-year improvement
Positive analytical markers
Offensive upside

I agree mostly except 'feel for the game' doesn't seem like something they have valued enough in past drafts. Scottie Barnes and maybe Delon Wright are the only ones I think that grade highly in that regard.

[Yallbecrazy]

Here is Jesse Fischer's model from 2022 FWIW:

Really inconsistent so far. Maybe if he has an older model it would give us better insight. But there’s no model that hits 100% or even close to it.

His model seems to be based on past rankings which is very odd. Also I would want to know what factors make up his last year only number.

I wouldn't expect this model to predict anything accurately, but it looks cool with all the numbers and colours.

[BoyzNTheHood]

We don't have a pick to take him with, nor the positional need, but I've been circling back on TJD and aside from age, I don't really see much that separates him from a guy like Bam Adebayo. They're nearly identical in size, length, and weight, and both play a kind of hybrid 4/5 game as rim runners who can also make great short roll passes. A playoff team is going to snag a really good player late in the first.

Same. If Bufkin or Cason aren’t available I’d strongly consider trading back for some NBA ready rookies like TJD and Sasser.

[TronoWrappers]

Here is Jesse Fischer's model from 2022 FWIW:

Really inconsistent so far. Maybe if he has an older model it would give us better insight. But there’s no model that hits 100% or even close to it.

His model seems to be based on past rankings which is very odd. Also I would want to know what factors make up his last year only number.

I wouldn't expect this model to predict anything accurately, but it looks cool with all the numbers and colours.

Yeah, no analytic model is perfect obviously. Although his upside model (Q99 column) seemed to perform pretty well based on this past season.

[Jadoogar]

Here is Jesse Fischer's model from 2022 FWIW:

Top 5 isn't bad honestly. Obviously Jabari underperformed but Houston was barely a basketball team.
Good calls on Jwill and Duren.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Here is Jesse Fischer's model from 2022 FWIW:

Top 5 isn't bad honestly. Obviously Jabari underperformed but Houston was barely a basketball team.
Good calls on Jwill and Duren.

Duren was fairly obvious. He had a lot of haters on here but it made no sense.

Ivey at 49 is a huge miss. Kennedy Chandler at 14 as well.

Paolo at 5 isn’t great either.

[Mark_83]

Was thinking 6'7-6'9 with 7+ wingspan. Like Coulibaly or L. Miller.

But actually looking back, we did draft guys like Jalen Harris and David Johnson. SO maybe there is hope for 1 of those 3.

A "Raptory" pick isn't just about wingspan or any one quality. It's a constellation of attributes that the Raptors look for. They don't need to possess every single one.

High character/work ethic/coachable
High IQ/feel for the game
Positional size
+ Length
Good defensively
Year-over-year improvement
Positive analytical markers
Offensive upside

I agree mostly except 'feel for the game' doesn't seem like something they have valued enough in past drafts. Scottie Barnes and maybe Delon Wright are the only ones I think that grade highly in that regard.

I'd add Poeltl to that. Really good instincts on both ends of the floor.