Draft Thread Part 2

[raptor jesus]

I'm somewhat skeptical of Bouknight. From an athletic and physical standpoint, he doesn't appear to be anything to write home about. Skill wise, it looks like he can do a number of things okay, but I'm not sure what he does well enough to translate to the next level (to justify taking him in the lottery). He's certainly doesn't project to be a high usage guy imo, so what does he hang his hat on?

[Jerry Lucas]

Do you guys think Ujiri and Webster would consider trading the pick for a star? Let’s say we end up with the 1-3 pick. Do we draft Cade/Mobley/Suggs and call it a day, or do we entertain offers for disgruntled stars in a larger package, like Karl Towns Jr, Brad Beal, etc?

Zero percent chance, partially due to it being pretty likely that all 4 of Cade/Green/Suggs/Mobley end up better than KAT and Beal.

[aminiaturebuddha]

I'm somewhat skeptical of Bouknight. From an athletic and physical standpoint, he doesn't appear to be anything to write home about. Skill wise, it looks like he can do a number of things okay, but I'm not sure what he does well enough to translate to the next level (to justify taking him in the lottery). He's certainly doesn't project to be a high usage guy imo, so what does he hang his hat on?

Agreed. I'm not a fan of his at all. He's an absolute black hole on offence. Even in his "highlight" clips you'll see him numerous times ignore a wide open teammate right under the hoop to instead opt for a tough contested shot. In the highlights, those shots go in, but if you watch more game film, more often it results in a bad miss or a turnover.

Also, I have my doubts that the one thing he excels at will translate well to the NBA. In college he's been a tremendous scorer off the dribble, able to get to his spots with ease. However, if you watch him closely, he has a really high dribble that he almost always brings up deep into the pocket, especially when he's trying to change directions. I don't think this will fly against long-armed and quick NBA defenders. I think he's going to have a lot of turnovers and balls deflected until he leans to adjust. And when he does adjust, will that hurt his quick change-of-direction dribble?

And that doesn't even get into his defence, where he has ability but tends to get lazy and have lapses far too often. Bouknight would be a hard pass from me if I'm Raptors management.

[Psubs]

I'm somewhat skeptical of Bouknight. From an athletic and physical standpoint, he doesn't appear to be anything to write home about. Skill wise, it looks like he can do a number of things okay, but I'm not sure what he does well enough to translate to the next level (to justify taking him in the lottery). He's certainly doesn't project to be a high usage guy imo, so what does he hang his hat on?

He's like the 6'5 version of Leandro Barbosa, which is exciting but may be 1 dimensional.

[Dalek]

I'm somewhat skeptical of Bouknight. From an athletic and physical standpoint, he doesn't appear to be anything to write home about. Skill wise, it looks like he can do a number of things okay, but I'm not sure what he does well enough to translate to the next level (to justify taking him in the lottery). He's certainly doesn't project to be a high usage guy imo, so what does he hang his hat on?

I think with Bouknight you buy his stock as a lead ballhandler. To me he is like the more athletic, no passing version of Trae Young. While he has blow-by ability, he is very shifty using his hesitation dribble to freeze guys and create attack angles. He is a three level scorer who faced double and triple teams in college which impacted his efficiency - not to mention he had elbow surgery mid season that set him back a bit. He has a good wingspan and feet so I think he will be a decent man-defender but it will be a long process for him to understand team defense. Although he didn't show passing in college I think he is too skilled not to be able to add it. I put him ahead of Keon Johnson who doesn't have the handle or shooting skill close to Bouk.

My own bias just doesn't like drafting college guards who are under 200 lbs. There is too much switching in the NBA and when you can't guard a SF/PF/C you are going to be a target on defense. Watching the Clips yesterday they loved to target Flynn or Harris close to the basket by design.

Ahead of both Bouk and Johnson I have Jaden Springer. He will hold his own in the NBA on both ends and I think he will be a lead guard. He checks the boxes: great at attacking and drawing contact, good passer in tight spaces, good shooting form and early results (80FT%; 40 3P%); good positional size at 6'4" with a plus wingspan, sneaky athleticism and comes into the draft at about 205 lbs at age 18.

[raptor jesus]

I'm somewhat skeptical of Bouknight. From an athletic and physical standpoint, he doesn't appear to be anything to write home about. Skill wise, it looks like he can do a number of things okay, but I'm not sure what he does well enough to translate to the next level (to justify taking him in the lottery). He's certainly doesn't project to be a high usage guy imo, so what does he hang his hat on?

He's like the 6'5 version of Leandro Barbosa, which is exciting but may be 1 dimensional.

Barbosa had a special burst - I don't really see that type of speed from Bouknight, but I'll watch more. I get more of a Marshon Brooks vibe; a guy who is an advanced scorer in college, but isn't good enough to shoulder a scoring load in the NBA and doesn't have much to fall back on.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

I'm looking more into WS/48 as an indicator of future potential.

In the past 20 seasons, the following NCAA players have made an all-NBA 1st team with WS/48 lower than .200 in their draft year:

Paul George (.178)
Russell Westbrook (.161)
Chris Paul (.171)
Steve Nash (.178)

Here's 2nd/3rd Team All-NBA

Jayson Tatum (.169)
John Wall (.196)
DeMar DeRozan (.140)
Isaiah Thomas (.199)
Carmelo Anthony (.183)
Deron Williams (.140)
Klay Thompson (.198)
Rondo (.150)
Redd (.158)
Joe Johnson (.186)

Again, for reference here are some of the top lotto picks:

Cunningham (.166)
Mobley (.248)
Suggs (.210)
Barnes (.195)
Moody (.193)
K. Johnson (.124)
Mitchell (.215)
Kispert (.251)
J.Johnson (.162)
Bouknight (.179)
Wagner (.210)

Seems like a really good filter to designate expectations. Obviously WS/48 benefits older players and bigs. The Gleaguers throw a bit of a monkey wrench. They did not grade well in this category, but they're playing in a different environment. I would expect Sengun's WS/48 to be super high. Giddey, probably middling.

ya i'm high on Mobley and Suggs. Barnes and Moody look good too. surprised Keon Johnson is that low.

what were Kuminga and Green's WS/48?

[Psubs]

I'm somewhat skeptical of Bouknight. From an athletic and physical standpoint, he doesn't appear to be anything to write home about. Skill wise, it looks like he can do a number of things okay, but I'm not sure what he does well enough to translate to the next level (to justify taking him in the lottery). He's certainly doesn't project to be a high usage guy imo, so what does he hang his hat on?

He's like the 6'5 version of Leandro Barbosa, which is exciting but may be 1 dimensional.

Barbosa had a special burst - I don't really see that type of speed from Bouknight, but I'll watch more. I get more of a Marshon Brooks vibe; a guy who is an advanced scorer in college, but isn't good enough to shoulder a scoring load in the NBA and doesn't have much to fall back on.

I guess by making Barbosa bigger, lose a little on the 1st step but gain dunking and power finishing at the rim.

[ATLTimekeeper]

ya i'm high on Mobley and Suggs. Barnes and Moody look good too. surprised Keon Johnson is that low.

what were Kuminga and Green's WS/48?

Green, .044
Kuminga, -0.030

[ATLTimekeeper]

p/40 seems like a good indicator, too. Players < 18 p/40 on 1st/2nd/3rd all-NBA teams in the last 20 years.

AD 17.7
Westbrook 15.1
DeRozan 16.6
DeAndre Jordan 15.8
Aldridge 17.8
Lowry 15
Rondo 14.4
DWill 14.9

So, again, super rare for non-scorers to "break out" into top 15 players. Lotto calibre players below that number:

Scottie Barnes 16.7
Keon Johnson 17.8
Davion Mitchell 17
Franz Wagner 15.7
Isaiah Jackson 16.3
Kai Jones 15.3

I'm not really making any judgements here on their quality, but I'm probably not buying "high" on any of these guys and banking on them being outliers.

[Dalek]

I'm looking more into WS/48 as an indicator of future potential.

In the past 20 seasons, the following NCAA players have made an all-NBA 1st team with WS/48 lower than .200 in their draft year:

Paul George (.178)
Russell Westbrook (.161)
Chris Paul (.171)
Steve Nash (.178)

Here's 2nd/3rd Team All-NBA

Jayson Tatum (.169)
John Wall (.196)
DeMar DeRozan (.140)
Isaiah Thomas (.199)
Carmelo Anthony (.183)
Deron Williams (.140)
Klay Thompson (.198)
Rondo (.150)
Redd (.158)
Joe Johnson (.186)

Again, for reference here are some of the top lotto picks:

Cunningham (.166)
Mobley (.248)
Suggs (.210)
Barnes (.195)
Moody (.193)
K. Johnson (.124)
Mitchell (.215)
Kispert (.251)
J.Johnson (.162)
Bouknight (.179)
Wagner (.210)

Seems like a really good filter to designate expectations. Obviously WS/48 benefits older players and bigs. The Gleaguers throw a bit of a monkey wrench. They did not grade well in this category, but they're playing in a different environment. I would expect Sengun's WS/48 to be super high. Giddey, probably middling.

I struggle a bit with this metric in that all teams play different styles. A fast-paced offense with tons of possessions is likely going to have more win-shares especially if you are stacked and play in a weak conference (see Gonzaga). A team like Florida State will likely have low win-shares because they grind possessions more and play in the very tough SEC. Plus, if you are a star on a bad team the high usage and defensive gameplanning you face will impact your win-shares negatively more (see Cade and James Bouknight).

/edit One other point about this metric is it seems to balance offensive and defensive contributions. So while a number at or close to .200 is typical to a star, but it could mean they are a star defensive player and a mediocre offensive one. Metrics like these are interesting to debate, but all-encompassing stats like this have flaws.

I am probably more curious about when two teammates are on the court like Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer, or Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell or Wagner and Isaiah Livers. From that end you can see relative on-court impact compared to the people they share the floor with the most.

[Jerry Lucas]

I'm looking more into WS/48 as an indicator of future potential.

In the past 20 seasons, the following NCAA players have made an all-NBA 1st team with WS/48 lower than .200 in their draft year:

Paul George (.178)
Russell Westbrook (.161)
Chris Paul (.171)
Steve Nash (.178)

Here's 2nd/3rd Team All-NBA

Jayson Tatum (.169)
John Wall (.196)
DeMar DeRozan (.140)
Isaiah Thomas (.199)
Carmelo Anthony (.183)
Deron Williams (.140)
Klay Thompson (.198)
Rondo (.150)
Redd (.158)
Joe Johnson (.186)

Again, for reference here are some of the top lotto picks:

Cunningham (.166)
Mobley (.248)
Suggs (.210)
Barnes (.195)
Moody (.193)
K. Johnson (.124)
Mitchell (.215)
Kispert (.251)
J.Johnson (.162)
Bouknight (.179)
Wagner (.210)

Seems like a really good filter to designate expectations. Obviously WS/48 benefits older players and bigs. The Gleaguers throw a bit of a monkey wrench. They did not grade well in this category, but they're playing in a different environment. I would expect Sengun's WS/48 to be super high. Giddey, probably middling.

I think you're forgetting Tre Mann and Dosunmu, their WS/48 were also pretty high IIRC.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I struggle a bit with this metric in that all teams play different styles. A fast-paced offense with tons of possessions is likely going to have more win-shares especially if you are stacked and play in a weak conference (see Gonzaga). A team like Florida State will likely have low win-shares because they grind possessions more and play in the very tough SEC. Plus, if you are a star on a bad team the high usage and defensive gameplanning you face will impact your win-shares negatively more (see Cade and James Bouknight).

I am probably more curious about when two teammates are on the court like Keon Johnson and Jaden Springer, or Jared Butler and Davion Mitchell or Wagner and Isaiah Livers. From that end you can see relative on-court impact compared to the people they share the floor with the most.

It's results driven. Basically, no matter what style teams play the results favour players who rack up that baseline value. You can make an argument for why you think a player might be an outlier, but they'll still be an outlier if they succeed to a top 15 player in any year. It's more a way to consider ceilings, which tend to get ridiculous every draft cycle.

[gojoorange]

I'm somewhat skeptical of Bouknight. From an athletic and physical standpoint, he doesn't appear to be anything to write home about. Skill wise, it looks like he can do a number of things okay, but I'm not sure what he does well enough to translate to the next level (to justify taking him in the lottery). He's certainly doesn't project to be a high usage guy imo, so what does he hang his hat on?

He's like the 6'5 version of Leandro Barbosa, which is exciting but may be 1 dimensional.

Except he can’t pass.

[Dalek]

I know there is interest in Giddey and what I found is that all of Giddey's full matches are on Twitch to watch. Here is a recent one which I think was watched by the Rap's Global Scouting Director: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/1010623627

What I notice about Giddey that is unique is that he tries to draw attention to himself on a lot of plays to help his teams get an advantage. He may get the ball at the top of three point line and go into a series of dribble moves that look like he is setting up a shot and then out of nowhere he whips a pass to the weakside. It is the part of his game that is interesting because it shows his spatial awareness. He really is a 6'8 guard.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I'm looking more into WS/48 as an indicator of future potential.

In the past 20 seasons, the following NCAA players have made an all-NBA 1st team with WS/48 lower than .200 in their draft year:

Paul George (.178)
Russell Westbrook (.161)
Chris Paul (.171)
Steve Nash (.178)

Here's 2nd/3rd Team All-NBA

Jayson Tatum (.169)
John Wall (.196)
DeMar DeRozan (.140)
Isaiah Thomas (.199)
Carmelo Anthony (.183)
Deron Williams (.140)
Klay Thompson (.198)
Rondo (.150)
Redd (.158)
Joe Johnson (.186)

Again, for reference here are some of the top lotto picks:

Cunningham (.166)
Mobley (.248)
Suggs (.210)
Barnes (.195)
Moody (.193)
K. Johnson (.124)
Mitchell (.215)
Kispert (.251)
J.Johnson (.162)
Bouknight (.179)
Wagner (.210)

Seems like a really good filter to designate expectations. Obviously WS/48 benefits older players and bigs. The Gleaguers throw a bit of a monkey wrench. They did not grade well in this category, but they're playing in a different environment. I would expect Sengun's WS/48 to be super high. Giddey, probably middling.

I think you're forgetting Tre Mann and Dosunmu, their WS/48 were also pretty high IIRC.

There's probably a number of guys who other people think of as lotto picks that I didn't include.

You're right about Ayo (.210). Here's Tre Mann (.172)

[Psubs]

I'm somewhat skeptical of Bouknight. From an athletic and physical standpoint, he doesn't appear to be anything to write home about. Skill wise, it looks like he can do a number of things okay, but I'm not sure what he does well enough to translate to the next level (to justify taking him in the lottery). He's certainly doesn't project to be a high usage guy imo, so what does he hang his hat on?

He's like the 6'5 version of Leandro Barbosa, which is exciting but may be 1 dimensional.

Except he can’t pass.

Barbosa was usually around 2 assists per game. If one has better teammates, they might be more inclined to give up the rock. I think Bouknight would be like a Jordan Clarkson.

[ATLTimekeeper]

/edit One other point about this metric is it seems to balance offensive and defensive contributions. So while a number at or close to .200 is typical to a star, but it could mean they are a star defensive player and a mediocre offensive one. Metrics like these are interesting to debate, but all-encompassing stats like this have flaws.

Check out my follow up post on p/40. Anyway, if you check the list of all-NBA players there's very few mediocre offensive players.

[gojoorange]

He's like the 6'5 version of Leandro Barbosa, which is exciting but may be 1 dimensional.

Except he can’t pass.

Barbosa was usually around 2 assists per game. If one has better teammates, they might be more inclined to give up the rock. I think Bouknight would be like a Jordan Clarkson.

Clarkson is an interesting comparison. The trouble with Bouknight is he seems to lack vision more than just willingness.

[Jerry Lucas]

I'm looking more into WS/48 as an indicator of future potential.

In the past 20 seasons, the following NCAA players have made an all-NBA 1st team with WS/48 lower than .200 in their draft year:

Paul George (.178)
Russell Westbrook (.161)
Chris Paul (.171)
Steve Nash (.178)

Here's 2nd/3rd Team All-NBA

Jayson Tatum (.169)
John Wall (.196)
DeMar DeRozan (.140)
Isaiah Thomas (.199)
Carmelo Anthony (.183)
Deron Williams (.140)
Klay Thompson (.198)
Rondo (.150)
Redd (.158)
Joe Johnson (.186)

Again, for reference here are some of the top lotto picks:

Cunningham (.166)
Mobley (.248)
Suggs (.210)
Barnes (.195)
Moody (.193)
K. Johnson (.124)
Mitchell (.215)
Kispert (.251)
J.Johnson (.162)
Bouknight (.179)
Wagner (.210)

Seems like a really good filter to designate expectations. Obviously WS/48 benefits older players and bigs. The Gleaguers throw a bit of a monkey wrench. They did not grade well in this category, but they're playing in a different environment. I would expect Sengun's WS/48 to be super high. Giddey, probably middling.

I think you're forgetting Tre Mann and Dosunmu, their WS/48 were also pretty high IIRC.

There's probably a number of guys who other people think of as lotto picks that I didn't include.

You're right about Ayo (.210). Here's Tre Mann (.172)

I think age is an important factor too as you said. Using Tre and Ayo as comparables:

Tre Mann at 20 - .172 WS/40, 19.8 P/40
Ayo Dosunmu at 20 - .154 WS/40, 19.8 P/40