Summer League Thread Part 4: Aug 14th Charlotte @7pm TSN2

[MixxSRC]

Jimmy Butler was an allstar in his 4th season at the age of 25. Ben Wallace is the perfect example of a change of scenery/ system player. Gordon Hayward was 20,5,4 by his 5th season in the league at 24 years old. Paul Milsap was 17 and 8 in his 5th season at 25. And he put up the same numbers in Atlanta and didn’t become an allstar until a change of scenery.

You guys are just throwing out names without even doing the research first. And the fact that you think you’ve found a handful of exceptions out of the 100’s of players that have cycled through the NBA doesn’t really disprove the original point.

you said you know who the player is by 3rd-4th year. Now you moving the goal post with "change of scenery" excuse. The fact is players improve and develop past 4th year in the league.

Go look at my original post. I said if a player has been getting consistent minutes you know by the 4th year or sometimes 3rd year in the NBA. I also factored a change of scenario in into my original post. Let’s see OG is already 24, getting 33 minutes a game and has a 20% usage. He already shoots 40% from 3, 78% from the FT line averages 6 boards, 2 assists and 1 steal while giving us 16 points. He’s not going to play 40 minutes, his usage might go up slightly but he’s not going to be a lead ball handler, I expect his playmaking to get better but what I don’t think all of a sudden he’s going to turn into a consistent over 20+ scorer, 5+ assists. Remember there will be slight improvements but there will also be future seasons when those numbers go down as well. There’s always regression to the mean, but players usually stay consistent once they’ve hit a certain plateau.

Last year was first time he averaged above 30 min per game. 33 min per game is pretty small he can bump that up to 37. Lowry leaving has left 13 attempts per game for the taking. FVV and Pascal already reached their usage ceiling imo and I see OG's attempts rise from 12 to easily 14-15. He increased his 3pt attempts from 3 to 6 from his 3 year to 4th year without dip in 3P%. It's not out of the question that with increased attempts his % will stay the same. I can see him average 20pts.

[raptor jesus]

My only nitpick with Barnes is with his lacklustre finishing around the rim. But I'm more disappointed with the coaching staff. Barnes is standing in the corner way too much when he could be getting reps as a ball handler. Despite the low usage, I'm encouraged he's getting to the line and looking comfortable, and willing to shoot jumpers. Defensively, he's been fantastic. I was skeptical about his ability to be an All-NBA type anchor, but he's looked the part so far.

[Pointgod]

Jimmy Butler, Doug Christie, Ben Wallace,

Jimmy Butler was an allstar in his 4th season at the age of 25. Ben Wallace is the perfect example of a change of scenery/ system player. Gordon Hayward was 20,5,4 by his 5th season in the league at 24 years old. Paul Milsap was 17 and 8 in his 5th season at 25. And he put up the same numbers in Atlanta and didn’t become an allstar until a change of scenery.

You guys are just throwing out names without even doing the research first. And the fact that you think you’ve found a handful of exceptions out of the 100’s of players that have cycled through the NBA doesn’t really disprove the original point.

Jimmy Butler was also 25 years old. OG just turned 24.

The fact that you guys are arbitrarily decided a player's growth will be stunted based on X number years in the league without providing any sort of actually statistical analysis is what's wrong here. You are making the statement. You might be right, but back it up with something?

You can look it up but it’s generally accepted that a player’s prime is 27 years old. But it’s never a straight trajectory where a player gets better every single year until 27 and then levels off. There are usually ups and downs before they hit their peak. Let’s look at Jimmy Butler for example:

At 25 and his 4th year in the league: 20, 5, 3
26: 21,5,5
27: 24,7,6
28: 22,5,5
29: 18,5,4

His best seasons coincide with his prime, but you can see the average of those numbers hover around what we saw from him at 25 in his 4th season.
So while Butler may have a 25, 7 and 6 season, we know that he’s not that type of player, generally he’ll get your 21, 5, 5. Keep in mind Butler was a guy who was a number 1 option, got a ton of minutes and had all the opportunities.

[StopitLeo]

Kawhi - made his first all-star game in 2016 when he was 25 years old.

He was always great defensively, but only unlocked his offensive potential around 2016, and became the offensive machine he is in 2017.

Nash - became an all-star for the first time at 28 years old in his 6th season in the league.

Scottie Barnes just turned 20.

Kawhi was also a sophomore when he was drafted. He played 70 NCAA games whereas Scottie only played 24 games; that’s a huge difference in time for skill development without even adding the covid layer.

As you said, Kawhi wasn’t close to the offensive threat he has become until around 2016. His ball-handling wasn’t very good coming out of college. Before 2016, ~50% of his 2PA were assisted and ~95% of his 3PA; since then those numbers are closer to 30% and 65%.

Kawhi also wasn’t a great shooter either. People point to Barnes’ 56/28/62 splits; Kawhi averaged 50/25/74 in college on around 2x the attempts each season.

Frankly, I’m very surprised by OGs offensive improvement outside of his 3pt shooting, which really goes to show how much a player can achieve with high work ethic and good coaches. I doubt he’ll ever get good enough to be a primary ball-handler on offence (he lacks fluidity) but he can beat someone off the catch now and will only get better at that.

[Duffman100]

Jimmy Butler was an allstar in his 4th season at the age of 25. Ben Wallace is the perfect example of a change of scenery/ system player. Gordon Hayward was 20,5,4 by his 5th season in the league at 24 years old. Paul Milsap was 17 and 8 in his 5th season at 25. And he put up the same numbers in Atlanta and didn’t become an allstar until a change of scenery.

You guys are just throwing out names without even doing the research first. And the fact that you think you’ve found a handful of exceptions out of the 100’s of players that have cycled through the NBA doesn’t really disprove the original point.

Jimmy Butler was also 25 years old. OG just turned 24.

The fact that you guys are arbitrarily decided a player's growth will be stunted based on X number years in the league without providing any sort of actually statistical analysis is what's wrong here. You are making the statement. You might be right, but back it up with something?

You can look it up but it’s generally accepted that a player’s prime is 27 years old. But it’s never a straight trajectory where a player gets better every single year until 27 and then levels off. There are usually ups and downs before they hit their peak. Let’s look at Jimmy Butler for example:

At 25 and his 4th year in the league: 20, 5, 3
26: 21,5,5
27: 24,7,6
28: 22,5,5
29: 18,5,4

His best seasons coincide with his prime, but you can see the average of those numbers hover around what we saw from him at 25 in his 4th season.
So while Butler may have a 25, 7 and 6 season, we know that he’s not that type of player, generally he’ll get your 21, 5, 5. Keep in mind Butler was a guy who was a number 1 option, got a ton of minutes and had all the opportunities.

So OG, who JUST turned 24, has two more years (21, 5 and 5, 26 year old Jimmy Butler) before we have a more accruate sense of who he is during his prime.

[Duffman100]

My only nitpick with Barnes is with his lacklustre finishing around the rim. But I'm more disappointed with the coaching staff. Barnes is standing in the corner way too much when he could be getting reps as a ball handler. Despite the low usage, I'm encouraged he's getting to the line and looking comfortable, and willing to shoot jumpers. Defensively, he's been fantastic. I was skeptical about his ability to be an All-NBA type anchor, but he's looked the part so far.

My guess is that coaching staff is trying to get him use to playing off ball (since Siakam, FVV, Trent, OG etc) are all going to be above him in the pecking order.

So get him use to backdoor cuts, corner 3s, etc...Have him start to get into that mold now, rather than giving him the ball a ton in the summer league and then he doesn't have it come opening night.

[MixxSRC]

If OG was same player in his 4 years I would agree with take that he is what he is but he's been improving.

[RapsFanInOhio]

My only nitpick with Barnes is with his lacklustre finishing around the rim. But I'm more disappointed with the coaching staff. Barnes is standing in the corner way too much when he could be getting reps as a ball handler. Despite the low usage, I'm encouraged he's getting to the line and looking comfortable, and willing to shoot jumpers. Defensively, he's been fantastic. I was skeptical about his ability to be an All-NBA type anchor, but he's looked the part so far.

My guess is that coaching staff is trying to get him use to playing off ball (since Siakam, FVV, Trent, OG etc) are all going to be above him in the pecking order.

So get him use to backdoor cuts, corner 3s, etc...Have him start to get into that mold now, rather than giving him the ball a ton in the summer league and then he doesn't have it come opening night.

Exactly.

Now, I think it’s fair to debate whether or not they should be doing things this way vs. sending him to the G League. But I agree that I think this is what’s happening.

[720]

I’m more disappointed in the coaching staff. They didn’t even give Barnes the ball to at least bring it up court. I don’t get the logic.

This kid does well in pnr’s, he’s a good facilitator, he can drive whenever he wants when he has the ball.

Instead for most of the game they sat him in the corner to ball watch. Two games in a row now this has happened.

[DreamTeam09]

Wainright had a 20burger ?? He looked good in highlights but glad to see his pt total so high tonite. He's gonna be good one, a solid bench keeper. I like him better than RHJ/Bembry/SJ and that's the role we are going to have him in. If he is our version of PJ tucker but better with ball that's a huge plus for us.

Our C rotation will be better than last year
Barnes Wainright Yuta are better than Bembry/SJ/Yuta of last year
We are bigger/lengthier than last year

[Pointgod]

you said you know who the player is by 3rd-4th year. Now you moving the goal post with "change of scenery" excuse. The fact is players improve and develop past 4th year in the league.

Go look at my original post. I said if a player has been getting consistent minutes you know by the 4th year or sometimes 3rd year in the NBA. I also factored a change of scenario in into my original post. Let’s see OG is already 24, getting 33 minutes a game and has a 20% usage. He already shoots 40% from 3, 78% from the FT line averages 6 boards, 2 assists and 1 steal while giving us 16 points. He’s not going to play 40 minutes, his usage might go up slightly but he’s not going to be a lead ball handler, I expect his playmaking to get better but what I don’t think all of a sudden he’s going to turn into a consistent over 20+ scorer, 5+ assists. Remember there will be slight improvements but there will also be future seasons when those numbers go down as well. There’s always regression to the mean, but players usually stay consistent once they’ve hit a certain plateau.

Last year was first time he averaged above 30 min per game. 33 min per game is pretty small he can bump that up to 37. Lowry leaving has left 13 attempts per game for the taking. FVV and Pascal already reached their usage ceiling imo and I see OG's attempts rise from 12 to easily 14-15. He increased his 3pt attempts from 3 to 6 from his 3 year to 4th year without dip in 3P%. It's not out of the question that with increased attempts his % will stay the same. I can see him average 20pts.

The league average in minutes is 35. Last year Fred lead our team in minutes at 36.5. Lowry opens up more attempts but then you have Dragic, Barnes and other players to take into consideration. Your posts has a lot of ifs in it. How realistic is it that he increases attempts without reducing efficiency especially when Kyle was drawing defensive attention and getting open shots? Like I said it’s not always a straight trajectory when it comes to development. I think realistically he’ll probably top out a shade under 20 points and improve his assists, but I don’t see a huge leap in development unless the offense literally force feeds him the ball.

[ItsDanger]

Sengun, what a steal!, Josh Christopher too!

vs Raptors: Sengun 3/10, 5 TOs. Christopher 4/18.

Now? Crickets. That is what they're building towards.

[DreamTeam09]

Watch on YouTube

This guy might be my new fav player. PJ Tucker 2.0

[Harcore Fenton Mun]

They're just trying to figure out who's going to be on the 905 right now.

Guys are working on specific stuff, you can tell. Like, Flynn's clearly been told to focus on shooting. Since we already know he can pass, he's a monster in the PnR.

[TheYellowMamba]

The toxicity this year is biblical. Geeze, 3 summer league games and the kid is banged up and all of sudden he's terrible?

Get a grip.

He is terrible as a 4th pick. He's pretty good as a rookie. He's a high lottery pick hence have higher expectation, nothing is toxic here.

[Duffman100]

Sengun, what a steal!, Josh Christopher too!

vs Raptors: Sengun 3/10, 5 TOs. Christopher 4/18.

Now? Crickets. That is what they're building towards.

Now imagine Rocket fans calling them busts based on Summer League results.

Sounds ridiculous right? They can be better, they can develop?

[Giyas]

Something minor but I really like this moment where Barnes flashed some ball handling ability when being pressured by the defender.

[LBJKB24MJ23]

My only nitpick with Barnes is with his lacklustre finishing around the rim. But I'm more disappointed with the coaching staff. Barnes is standing in the corner way too much when he could be getting reps as a ball handler. Despite the low usage, I'm encouraged he's getting to the line and looking comfortable, and willing to shoot jumpers. Defensively, he's been fantastic. I was skeptical about his ability to be an All-NBA type anchor, but he's looked the part so far.

My guess is that coaching staff is trying to get him use to playing off ball (since Siakam, FVV, Trent, OG etc) are all going to be above him in the pecking order.

So get him use to backdoor cuts, corner 3s, etc...Have him start to get into that mold now, rather than giving him the ball a ton in the summer league and then he doesn't have it come opening night.

if Barnes is going to get tons of minutes, hes going to have to be elite at all the off-ball stuff because like you said, there are way too many pieces that will be getting the ball first in the NBA, Siakam, OG, FVV, GTJ are 4 that will get exclusive usage.

people just need to patient with Barnes for the next 2-3 years because thats when he's going to be good.

thats just the thing with players like Barnes. I'm sure most or all of the top 10 picks in the draft rather have picked Giannis or Kawhi than their own picks. thats the same thing here with Barnes but we got him with the #4 pick because they really think he's going to be really good down the line. (he was going to the Magic or Thunder anyways so he's not a reach) if you guys watched him, he's got a really good all- around game to him. if you can tell me hes going to bust after 3 summer league games, you're shortsighted and pretty much don't know what you're talking about as Raptors brass or any team that drafts this guy have done their research, watched him in closed workouts, talked to him, know what his mental make-up is like etc.

[ItsDanger]

My only nitpick with Barnes is with his lacklustre finishing around the rim. But I'm more disappointed with the coaching staff. Barnes is standing in the corner way too much when he could be getting reps as a ball handler. Despite the low usage, I'm encouraged he's getting to the line and looking comfortable, and willing to shoot jumpers. Defensively, he's been fantastic. I was skeptical about his ability to be an All-NBA type anchor, but he's looked the part so far.

Summer league is about establishing what they need to work on rest of summer. Forcing him off ball and standing in corners or at the elbow and NOT getting the ball forces him to appreciate the importance of his open 3 pt %. I'm sure he knows but they're driving the point home to him. That will be a big role for him in his rookie season. You shouldn't expect Barnes to get more than 8-10 PPG next season with low USG.

[brownbobcat]

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/32010903/nba-summer-league-2021-biggest-surprises-disappointments-far-las-vegas

ESPN article, 5 insiders asked 5 questions about SL so far. 2 of the 5 picked Suggs as the SL MVP so far. Which doesn't matter so much but their comments are telling.

I'm not hating on Suggs, but there's a lot about his game that also screams Marcus Smart to me. And that's fine player to have, but not a difference-maker.