2023 Draft Discussion Part 6

[ATLTimekeeper]

He does now, but the stats in college suggest mediocre feel.

Can you statistically measure feel? That seems more like an intangible trait.

Assist to turnover ratio and steal%

At Utah he started out as a PnR big and in his 2nd year they posted him a lot more. He wasn't a confident scorer and I think that led to a lot of TOs. But, having watched him both years he was clearly a smart basketball player. In the NBA we don't see that many classic back downs from him, so I guess they just decided that wasn't what he was comfortable doing.

[Clutch0z24]

It depends how much you like Ingram. I don't think the Pelicans should trade him. They were hyper competitive for two long stretches last year whenever either Zion or Ingram were available, and unstoppable when both were available and at their peak. Although the value is similar, I think the Pelicans should not do this trade, they'll regret it.

It all depends...Ingram has been injury prone which might be a factor....Zion being injury prone already you can't have another injury prone player on your team....It all depends how bad the Pelicans want Scoot and if they think a Scoot/Zion pairing could be a future dynasty.

Ingram is a good player and would fit the Hornets perfect it is really all on the Pelicans....And i think atm it has a 60 percent chance of going down on draft night.

[Mark_83]

He does now, but the stats in college suggest mediocre feel.

Can you statistically measure feel? That seems more like an intangible trait.

Assist to turnover ratio and steal%

I'm not sure how much construct validity that would have. Would have to line up a random sample of players considered to have good "feel for the game" against players not thought to have it, and see if there's a meaningful statistical difference in those stats.

[PhilBlackson]

Prime D Rose?

Seriously though...Prime DRose was primarily based on being such an explosive athlete, not exactly NS Jr's calling card.

"Smith is a high-potential player who possesses excellent scoring abilities. His offensive game is characterized by his explosive speed and smooth jump shot. Nevertheless, Smith's lack of consistent playing time during the season has limited his impact on the court."

Hmmmm great quote or I mean you could just use your eyes...looks like a NS Jr clone

Watch on YouTube

The actual player that will resemble him is Scoot.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Anthony Black shot 17.5% from downtown vs Top 50 teams.

Big smile.

[Ell Curry]

I think I've talked myself into Keyonte George based on him having damn near a 30% usage for the #2 offence in the country. Baylor fans liked him, said he worked hard on both ends and had an ankle injury that led to some struggles near the end of the year.

A bunch of shooting guards have gone in the late lottery and been great lately (Mitchell, Booker, Herro, Haliburton, SGA) as they seem to fall behind the bigger wing types everyone wants that go in the 7-11 range. George having a team like Baylor basically turned over to him is pretty impressive, and it largely worked out for them even though he personally missed a ton of shots.

It's tough to project a guy based on 35 games as a 19 year old and his recruiting ranking, but obviously Baylor thought he was the man there over some decent guards or a more egalitarian offense, and they did end up #2 in the country on that end so tough to argue with it. And they've had a lot of success with guards and seem to know what they're doing there (got another star transfer this week to replace George and Flagler).

Seems like a high upside guard and we are absolutely desperate for that type of guy to pair with Scottie and Poeltl and likely whoever else is still on the roster.

[Yallbecrazy]

I think I've talked myself into Keyonte George based on him having damn near a 30% usage for the #2 offence in the country. Baylor fans liked him, said he worked hard on both ends and had an ankle injury that led to some struggles near the end of the year.

A bunch of shooting guards have gone in the late lottery and been great lately (Mitchell, Booker, Herro, Haliburton, SGA) as they seem to fall behind the bigger wing types everyone wants that go in the 7-11 range. George having a team like Baylor basically turned over to him is pretty impressive, and it largely worked out for them even though he personally missed a ton of shots.

It's tough to project a guy based on 35 games as a 19 year old and his recruiting ranking, but obviously Baylor thought he was the man there over some decent guards or a more egalitarian offense, and they did end up #2 in the country on that end so tough to argue with it. And they've had a lot of success with guards and seem to know what they're doing there (got another star transfer this week to replace George and Flagler).

Seems like a high upside guard and we are absolutely desperate for that type of guy to pair with Scottie and Poeltl and likely whoever else is still on the roster.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/baylor/men/2023.html

I don't think he was mainly responsible for them being the #2 offense in the country. That team was pretty stacked and had a lot of great shooters.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I
A bunch of shooting guards have gone in the late lottery and been great lately (Mitchell, Booker, Herro, Haliburton, SGA) as they seem to fall behind the bigger wing types everyone wants that go in the 7-11 range. George having a team like Baylor basically turned over to him is pretty impressive, and it largely worked out for them even though he personally missed a ton of shots.

BPM:

Mitchell 11.1
Booker 9.4
Herro 8.9
Haliburton 11.7
SGA 9

George 5.6

He's not the next one.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Keyonte's passing, decision making and defense all scare the **** out of me.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Read on Twitter

Half the time you watch Jett play defense he looks like he's a 48 year old with a beer belly playing at the YMCA but with the on court awareness of an 8 year old. Like dude wake up, you're in an NCAA game.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Anthony Black shot 17.5% from downtown vs Top 50 teams.

Big smile.

If anyone saw him as a shooter this might actually be a bad thing.

[ArthurVandelay]

I
A bunch of shooting guards have gone in the late lottery and been great lately (Mitchell, Booker, Herro, Haliburton, SGA) as they seem to fall behind the bigger wing types everyone wants that go in the 7-11 range. George having a team like Baylor basically turned over to him is pretty impressive, and it largely worked out for them even though he personally missed a ton of shots.

BPM:

Mitchell 11.1
Booker 9.4
Herro 8.9
Haliburton 11.7
SGA 9

George 5.6

He's not the next one.

DBPM:

Mitchell 4.4/5.5
Booker 3.3
Herro 3.8
Haliburton 4.4/3.7
SGA 3.7

George 1.1

2pt fg%
Mitchell 55.9/46.3
Booker 52.7
Herro 53.8
Haliburton 68.5/59.2
SGA 50.0

George 42.4

Agreed. He’s not the next one.

[Ell Curry]

I
A bunch of shooting guards have gone in the late lottery and been great lately (Mitchell, Booker, Herro, Haliburton, SGA) as they seem to fall behind the bigger wing types everyone wants that go in the 7-11 range. George having a team like Baylor basically turned over to him is pretty impressive, and it largely worked out for them even though he personally missed a ton of shots.

BPM:

Mitchell 11.1
Booker 9.4
Herro 8.9
Haliburton 11.7
SGA 9

George 5.6

He's not the next one.

Mitchell was 7.1 and Haliburton was 8.7, you have to use their freshman seasons presumably, since that's what we're using for George.

5.6, yes, there is still a gap, but that BPM figure puts George 4th among freshman under 6'7 (so guards basically, but add Anthony Black) in BPM, after Sensabaugh and Cason Wallace. I do really like Wallace. Not sure about Sensabaugh, though maybe he's the next thick shooter in the Bane mold.

My guess is that Wallace will be gone by 13, unless the injury stuff is a serious concern. He's just such a solid all-around player. Even the above list suggests Kentucky guards under Calipari have been undervalued as it contains 3 Kentucky guys out of the 5, so I don't see why say Orlando at #11 would pass on a rock solid guard like Wallace to compliment Banchero and Franz.

So if the expected top 10 and then Wallace and Bufkin are gone before we pick, then Podz is the BPM pick, but presumably he'll be available a few spots lower and we could trade down.

[Ell Curry]

I don't think he was mainly responsible for them being the #2 offense in the country. That team was pretty stacked and had a lot of great shooters.

They have a great scheme and some lights out shooters, but I think you gotta assume the guy with 30% usage was heavily responsible, even if his numbers aren't great. And the fact that they gave him the ball so much seems like a good sign as to his potential, they must have thought he'd be more efficient based on what they saw in practice and in the summer, or teams keying on him allowed others to get better looks.

[Ell Curry]

Keyonte's passing, decision making and defense all scare the **** out of me.

I thought Baylor fans were positive on his defence, but I could be wrong.

Passing and decision making I'm with you, but someone like Donovan Mitchell wasn't trusted to run his team's offence as a freshman for similar reasons. I'd love if if there was a guard savant like Haliburton available, but unless it's Podz, that guy doesn't seem to exist, and I don't think we're taking Podz at #13.

[HumbleRen]

I think I've talked myself into Keyonte George based on him having damn near a 30% usage for the #2 offence in the country. Baylor fans liked him, said he worked hard on both ends and had an ankle injury that led to some struggles near the end of the year.

A bunch of shooting guards have gone in the late lottery and been great lately (Mitchell, Booker, Herro, Haliburton, SGA) as they seem to fall behind the bigger wing types everyone wants that go in the 7-11 range. George having a team like Baylor basically turned over to him is pretty impressive, and it largely worked out for them even though he personally missed a ton of shots.

It's tough to project a guy based on 35 games as a 19 year old and his recruiting ranking, but obviously Baylor thought he was the man there over some decent guards or a more egalitarian offense, and they did end up #2 in the country on that end so tough to argue with it. And they've had a lot of success with guards and seem to know what they're doing there (got another star transfer this week to replace George and Flagler).

Seems like a high upside guard and we are absolutely desperate for that type of guy to pair with Scottie and Poeltl and likely whoever else is still on the roster.

Masai and Bobby had first class seats for this game.

Watch on YouTube

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Keyonte's passing, decision making and defense all scare the **** out of me.

I thought Baylor fans were positive on his defence, but I could be wrong.

Passing and decision making I'm with you, but someone like Donovan Mitchell wasn't trusted to run his team's offence as a freshman for similar reasons. I'd love if if there was a guard savant like Haliburton available, but unless it's Podz, that guy doesn't seem to exist, and I don't think we're taking Podz at #13.

The real joke could be if OKC takes Podz at #12. They would know a thing or two about him given how they drafted out of Santa Clara last year and probably spoke to the staff there. I fully endorse taking Podz at #13.

[Yallbecrazy]

I
A bunch of shooting guards have gone in the late lottery and been great lately (Mitchell, Booker, Herro, Haliburton, SGA) as they seem to fall behind the bigger wing types everyone wants that go in the 7-11 range. George having a team like Baylor basically turned over to him is pretty impressive, and it largely worked out for them even though he personally missed a ton of shots.

BPM:

Mitchell 11.1
Booker 9.4
Herro 8.9
Haliburton 11.7
SGA 9

George 5.6

He's not the next one.

Mitchell was 7.1 and Haliburton was 8.7, you have to use their freshman seasons presumably, since that's what we're using for George.

5.6, yes, there is still a gap, but that BPM figure puts George 4th among freshman under 6'7 (so guards basically, but add Anthony Black) in BPM, after Sensabaugh and Cason Wallace. I do really like Wallace. Not sure about Sensabaugh, though maybe he's the next thick shooter in the Bane mold.

My guess is that Wallace will be gone by 13, unless the injury stuff is a serious concern. He's just such a solid all-around player. Even the above list suggests Kentucky guards under Calipari have been undervalued as it contains 3 Kentucky guys out of the 5, so I don't see why say Orlando at #11 would pass on a rock solid guard like Wallace to compliment Banchero and Franz.

So if the expected top 10 and then Wallace and Bufkin are gone before we pick, then Podz is the BPM pick, but presumably he'll be available a few spots lower and we could trade down.

I discussed this a while back and you absolutely do not use that number, you use their last season with a qualifier based on age.

If a player has a 3.0 BPM as a freshman and a 10.0 as a sophomore which is outlier growth you can't take a player with a 3.0 bpm as a freshman and consider him equal as he hasn't displayed outlier growth.

[Yallbecrazy]

Keyonte's passing, decision making and defense all scare the **** out of me.

I thought Baylor fans were positive on his defence, but I could be wrong.

Passing and decision making I'm with you, but someone like Donovan Mitchell wasn't trusted to run his team's offence as a freshman for similar reasons. I'd love if if there was a guard savant like Haliburton available, but unless it's Podz, that guy doesn't seem to exist, and I don't think we're taking Podz at #13.

The real joke could be if OKC takes Podz at #12. They would know a thing or two about him given how they drafted out of Santa Clara last year and probably spoke to the staff there. I fully endorse taking Podz at #13.

OKC fan reddit had a thread on him and they were in full support of taking him @#12 based on BPA, but many didn't like the fit. They need shooting, but they need wing shooting as they have Shai and Giddey already as the primary ball handlers. They're the team that should be going after OG big time and they have the assets for it.

[tecumseh18]

What are thoughts about Dariq Whitehead? I've heard he's "theoretically great".

The second foot surgery is off-putting, but it could be another OG-esque opportunity.