Tank World Order (10.0) The Empire Strikes Back

[OakleyDokely]

Uhh, we traded 2 lottery picks to get that one fluke. Honestly, this isn't a great strategy for fan interest. Shouldn't everyone just tune out until this trade occurs?

If you need to do that most of us would support you.

I mean, there are a lot of really bad teams who consistently pick high in the draft to cheer for if you really like tanking.

Given Masai's history, I don't think losing on purpose will be his strategy going forward. So you either accept this or you don't watch. Either option is fine.

[ItsDanger]

Uhh, we traded 2 lottery picks to get that one fluke. Honestly, this isn't a great strategy for fan interest. Shouldn't everyone just tune out until this trade occurs?

If you need to do that most of us would support you.

I mean, there are a lot of really bad teams who consistently pick high in the draft to cheer for if you really like tanking.

Given Masai's history, I don't think losing on purpose will be his strategy going forward. So you either accept this or you don't watch. Either option is fine.

Wow, great business analysis here. LMAO

[OakleyDokely]

If you need to do that most of us would support you.

I mean, there are a lot of really bad teams who consistently pick high in the draft to cheer for if you really like tanking.

Given Masai's history, I don't think losing on purpose will be his strategy going forward. So you either accept this or you don't watch. Either option is fine.

Wow, great business analysis here. LMAO

Wasn't a business analysis.

[Duffman100]

Uhh, we traded 2 lottery picks to get that one fluke. Honestly, this isn't a great strategy for fan interest. Shouldn't everyone just tune out until this trade occurs?

And what's the % chance of drafting a Lebron James / Tim Duncan / Kevin Durant?

[God Squad]

Don't need to draft a superstar, we'll just get one in free agency. LOL

Trade for one (like we did).
Sign one.
Draft one in the early / mid / ate lottery.
Draft one in the first round.
Draft one, have them leave, have them sign back.
Have one force their way to your team to play with someone (maybe Scottie)

How many different ways have teams won titles in the past 30 years? It isn't just LOSE and DRAFT. Otherwise we'd see a lot of other teams winning the title.

Okay. So where's the separation between you and others? You all believe in the draft for the most part. You told me yourself that you weren't a fan of the Purtle trade because of the lack of protection. Clearly 720 and others believe we need to be drafting in the lottery (which I agree with), as opposed to competing in the play-in. We lack bluechip talent in the worst way IMO.

Are you arguing that we should push for the play-in and compete because there is no "blueprint" and stars are found throughout the draft? I'm just trying to understand.

[Duffman100]

Don't need to draft a superstar, we'll just get one in free agency. LOL

Trade for one (like we did).
Sign one.
Draft one in the early / mid / ate lottery.
Draft one in the first round.
Draft one, have them leave, have them sign back.
Have one force their way to your team to play with someone (maybe Scottie)

How many different ways have teams won titles in the past 30 years? It isn't just LOSE and DRAFT. Otherwise we'd see a lot of other teams winning the title.

Okay. So where's the separation between you and others? You all believe in the draft for the most part. You told me yourself that you weren't a fan of the Purtle trade because of the lack of protection. Clearly 720 and others believe we need to be drafting in the lottery (which I agree with), as opposed to competing in the play-in. We lack bluechip talent in the worst way IMO.

Are you arguing that we should push for the play-in and compete because there is no "blueprint" and stars are found throughout the draft? I'm just trying to understand.

I don't love the protections on the pick because of how our performance has been. And I don't love giving up draft capital.

I don't really know where I stand tbh. We built a championship contender while not tanking. Other teams have done the same.

Some teams got lucky and drafted top 20 GOAT calibre talent while they were mediorce to meh but still trying to win.

How often do teams draft GOAT players and win titles vs not? How many do that vs the other options I presented?

The sad truth is it's really hard to win a title. The %s are low on ANY of the paths. Very few teams win the title in general.

[WuTang_CMB]

Traditional tanks don't pay off in my mind. You need a lot of luck for them to work.

But stealth tanks make the most sense, especially when you are in early stages of your new era which we are

7/11 range has no upside to me , especially when we are in the 'accumulation of talent' mode

[ATLTimekeeper]

Traditional tanks don't pay off in my mind. You need a lot of luck for them to work.

But stealth tanks make the most sense, especially when you are in early stages of your new era which we are

7/11 range has no upside to me , especially when we are in the 'accumulation of talent' mode

They accumulated talent in the Poeltl trade. If they traded OG and Fred to stealth tank they've be losing talent. I think an optimistic scenario was still like a 10% chance at a 50% chance at an all-star this year. I think it would have been challenging to rest their better players under the premise of tanking. No one had to twist Lowry's arm to convince him to hit the links in Tampa in March. He probably pitched that idea himself.

[OakleyDokely]

People lose me when they say we should be competing for a "lottery pick". The lottery is half the first round and if the season ended today, the Raps would pick in the lottery.

People need to be a lot more specific. Do you want a legit chance at a top pick? If so, then you better be prepared to trade almost every core player to get there and you'd need to do this at the start of the season not midway through. The bottom teams are going to win only 20 games. Or are we talking about competing for a mid-high lotto pick (6-14 range)? If that's the case, the chances of finding a legit star in this range is low. You will most likely find a quality starter, but to get a superstar, you'd have to get extremely lucky.

There will be times when it makes sense to take a step back, whether for a season or multiple seasons. If you suffer major injuries, you won't have much of a choice. If you have an aging roster that's capped out, you won't have much of a choice. If your star demands out, you won't have much of a choice. These are typically the situations that motivate teams to bottom out and it's typically not by choice, it's because they have no other option.

[WuTang_CMB]

Traditional tanks don't pay off in my mind. You need a lot of luck for them to work.

But stealth tanks make the most sense, especially when you are in early stages of your new era which we are

7/11 range has no upside to me , especially when we are in the 'accumulation of talent' mode

They accumulated talent in the Poeltl trade. If they traded OG and Fred to stealth tank they've be losing talent. I think an optimistic scenario was still like a 10% chance at a 50% chance at an all-star this year. I think it would have been challenging to rest their better players under the premise of tanking. No one had to twist Lowry's arm to convince him to hit the links in Tampa in March. He probably pitched that idea himself.

Poeltl checks off only one box in the improvement of the club. They still need a lot more upgraded talent to play with the big boys of the East. Still far away. Either trade or draft you get there, not through F.A so you have to hit this draft considering 24' pick is gone. I expect some shake ups in the off-season to the core guys because we can't be .500 next year again.

[Duffman100]

Traditional tanks don't pay off in my mind. You need a lot of luck for them to work.

But stealth tanks make the most sense, especially when you are in early stages of your new era which we are

7/11 range has no upside to me , especially when we are in the 'accumulation of talent' mode

They accumulated talent in the Poeltl trade. If they traded OG and Fred to stealth tank they've be losing talent. I think an optimistic scenario was still like a 10% chance at a 50% chance at an all-star this year. I think it would have been challenging to rest their better players under the premise of tanking. No one had to twist Lowry's arm to convince him to hit the links in Tampa in March. He probably pitched that idea himself.

I'm also a bit confused around trading Fred vs keeping him for the rest of the year. There's a lot of conversation about how Fred is not a winning player, how he's selfish, a chucker, terrible passer etc. So that would be good to have if we're trying to lose games. But it's used as an argument against how we're not stealth tanking.

So was keeping Fred a stealth tank move and his play leads to losses? Or does Fred actually improve our chances to win games and so it's bad we held onto him?

[ATLTimekeeper]

Traditional tanks don't pay off in my mind. You need a lot of luck for them to work.

But stealth tanks make the most sense, especially when you are in early stages of your new era which we are

7/11 range has no upside to me , especially when we are in the 'accumulation of talent' mode

They accumulated talent in the Poeltl trade. If they traded OG and Fred to stealth tank they've be losing talent. I think an optimistic scenario was still like a 10% chance at a 50% chance at an all-star this year. I think it would have been challenging to rest their better players under the premise of tanking. No one had to twist Lowry's arm to convince him to hit the links in Tampa in March. He probably pitched that idea himself.

Poeltl checks off only one box in the improvement of the club. They still need a lot more upgraded talent to play with the big boys of the East. Still far away. Either trade or draft you get there, not through F.A so you have to hit this draft considering 24' pick is gone. I expect some shake ups in the off-season to the core guys because we can't be .500 next year again.

Yeah, obviously Poeltl is just one player. If they drafted in the mid-lottery this year (kept their pick while trading OG/Fred) they're still optimistically coming out with a player as good as Fred. Seems like the better play was to try and figure it out in the off-season. They have time with Scottie. He's already good for the team without being all that good at anything important on offense. That's someone you can be patient with.

[Los_29]

I don’t understand why we’re so desperate to get swept in the first round

No one is desperate to get swept in the first round. There is just not tangible proof that getting higher picks at the expense of selling off assets at a fraction of the value leads title. It just... hasn't happened.

So the attitude that people are dumb and ignorant because they want to go down that road is ... weird.

Is it possible that as we see more teams go that path, we'll see more tangible results? Sure... I'm open to that being the case. But so far, no evidence.

There are so many teams bunched up with us around the league including teams that we thought would tank like the the Jazz and Thunder. In addition to those teams you have the Heat, Hawks, Nets, Wizards, Mavs, Clippers, Lakers, Pelicans, Pacers, Blazers, Warriors and Timberwolves.

Why is it that NBA franchises don't see the urgency in tanking but some people on here do?

Losing in the first round isn't really a big deal. As long it's not continually happening.

[WuTang_CMB]

They accumulated talent in the Poeltl trade. If they traded OG and Fred to stealth tank they've be losing talent. I think an optimistic scenario was still like a 10% chance at a 50% chance at an all-star this year. I think it would have been challenging to rest their better players under the premise of tanking. No one had to twist Lowry's arm to convince him to hit the links in Tampa in March. He probably pitched that idea himself.

Poeltl checks off only one box in the improvement of the club. They still need a lot more upgraded talent to play with the big boys of the East. Still far away. Either trade or draft you get there, not through F.A so you have to hit this draft considering 24' pick is gone. I expect some shake ups in the off-season to the core guys because we can't be .500 next year again.

Yeah, obviously Poeltl is just one player. If they drafted in the mid-lottery this year (kept their pick while trading OG/Fred) they're still optimistically coming out with a player as good as Fred. Seems like the better play was to try and figure it out in the off-season. They have time with Scottie. He's already good for the team without being all that good at anything important on offense. That's someone you can be patient with.

Yeah obviously they need more talent than Poeltl. They better figure it out in the off-season because that's what they punted to so you expect major core changes to get back in the top 5 mix for next season. And if they don't, and you have a repeat of this season, you got problems.

[tripa]

I don’t understand why we’re so desperate to get swept in the first round

No one is desperate to get swept in the first round. There is just not tangible proof that getting higher picks at the expense of selling off assets at a fraction of the value leads title. It just... hasn't happened.

So the attitude that people are dumb and ignorant because they want to go down that road is ... weird.

Is it possible that as we see more teams go that path, we'll see more tangible results? Sure... I'm open to that being the case. But so far, no evidence.

There are so many teams bunched up with us around the league including teams that we thought would tank like the the Jazz and Thunder. In addition to those teams you have the Heat, Hawks, Nets, Wizards, Mavs, Clippers, Lakers, Pelicans, Pacers, Blazers, Warriors and Timberwolves.

Why is it that NBA franchises don't see the urgency in tanking but some people on here do?

Losing in the first round isn't really a big deal. As long it's not continually happening.

Its going to continually happen here if our best player is Siakam. We can all agree on that at least. Need a huge jump from Barnes in the next couple of years.

[Los_29]

Lottery,

Curry, Klay, Lebron, Dirk, Duncan, Wade, Kobe (traded into lottery), Pierce, Robinson, Jordan, Hakeem, and Isiah.

All lottery picks, all won chips with the team that drafted them. The only teams outside of this criteria are the Bucks, Bubble Lakers, 2019 Raptors, 04 Pistons. That’s 4 championships in the last 3 decades. Everyone else falls into the list above, lotto picks that became stars.

So let's go through them.

Kobe forced his way to the Lakers, because the Lakers. They also happened to sign a guy named Shaq. That helped a little.
Warriors didn't tank. And they grabbed Curry at 8. Let's look at the talent level of 8.
Mavs didn't tank, Dirk was taken 9th.
Spurs didn't tank, Robinson had a foot injury.
Heat signed Lebron that sort of helped Wade
Cavs had Lebron come back which you know, helped as they tanked in between.
Pierce had Allen and Garnett join him. And was taken 10th.

By your logic, we fell, drafted Scottie and should be good now right?

Wade won pre Lebron with an aging Shaq, so there's no debating his chip. But I think 720's point is all those players were taken in the lottery. So we should be focusing on the lottery and not picking 18th and looking for the playoffs/play-in. But I'm of the mindset there is no "blueprint" in order to build a contender. But one thing is certain, you need allstars/superstar player in order to achieve it.

You absolutely need all-stars and superstars to win. No doubt about that. But tanking for those players has traditionally never been a viable strategy. The past few years has proven, it's far easier trading for one than it is to draft one. Warriors are considered a great organization and yet they just failed massively on three lottery picks. Orlando has had three picks in the top 8 and have ended up with Banchero, Suggs and Franz. Rockets have had two top 3 picks and ended up with Green and Jabari. OKC has ended up with Chet, Giddey, Dieng and J. Williams. Pistons have ended up with Cade and Ivey. That's not good enough.

[Duffman100]

No one is desperate to get swept in the first round. There is just not tangible proof that getting higher picks at the expense of selling off assets at a fraction of the value leads title. It just... hasn't happened.

So the attitude that people are dumb and ignorant because they want to go down that road is ... weird.

Is it possible that as we see more teams go that path, we'll see more tangible results? Sure... I'm open to that being the case. But so far, no evidence.

There are so many teams bunched up with us around the league including teams that we thought would tank like the the Jazz and Thunder. In addition to those teams you have the Heat, Hawks, Nets, Wizards, Mavs, Clippers, Lakers, Pelicans, Pacers, Blazers, Warriors and Timberwolves.

Why is it that NBA franchises don't see the urgency in tanking but some people on here do?

Losing in the first round isn't really a big deal. As long it's not continually happening.

Its going to continually happen here if our best player is Siakam. We can all agree on that at least. Need a huge jump from Barnes in the next couple of years.

Sort of agree. We either need an actual #1 option or better depth / more reliable shooting.

I think we could get to 2nd round even conference finals with Siakam if the supporting cast was better.

[OakleyDokely]

I don’t understand why we’re so desperate to get swept in the first round

No one is desperate to get swept in the first round. There is just not tangible proof that getting higher picks at the expense of selling off assets at a fraction of the value leads title. It just... hasn't happened.

So the attitude that people are dumb and ignorant because they want to go down that road is ... weird.

Is it possible that as we see more teams go that path, we'll see more tangible results? Sure... I'm open to that being the case. But so far, no evidence.

There are so many teams bunched up with us around the league including teams that we thought would tank like the the Jazz and Thunder. In addition to those teams you have the Heat, Hawks, Nets, Wizards, Mavs, Clippers, Lakers, Pelicans, Pacers, Blazers, Warriors and Timberwolves.

Why is it that NBA franchises don't see the urgency in tanking but some people on here do?

Losing in the first round isn't really a big deal. As long it's not continually happening.

There are currently 15 teams between 29-34 wins (half the nba on pace for between 37-43 wins)

Only 4 teams are on pace for 50+ wins.

Other than HOU, DET, SA, CHA, everyone else is trying to win.

The combination of the play-in plus the flattening of the lotto odds have kinda killed tanking. The bottom teams are just terrible.

[2019nbachamps]

Duffman, we're making the following argument:

The Raptors have two options: 1) Tank to improve lottery odds; 2) Try to win and make a run at the playoffs.

The benefit of tanking is that you increase your odds of a higher draft pick which in theory is more likely to result in getting a better player. Of course the lottery can be a crap shoot and drafting higher doesn't necessarily mean you'll find a better player.

The benefit of making a playoff run is gaining playoff experience which in theory will help the development of the team moving forward. Of course, playoff experience doesn't necessarily mean a team will improve in a linear fashion (or improve at all).

TwO is arguing option 1 would be the better path forward. The reason is realistically, the Raptors might not even secure a 7 or 8 seed, and even if we do, we are severely overmatched by the Celtics and Bucks. We feel that increasing our lotto balls is a better path to long-term development than making the playoffs, getting smoked, and getting a middle-1st round draft pick.

[Los_29]

There are so many teams bunched up with us around the league including teams that we thought would tank like the the Jazz and Thunder. In addition to those teams you have the Heat, Hawks, Nets, Wizards, Mavs, Clippers, Lakers, Pelicans, Pacers, Blazers, Warriors and Timberwolves.

Why is it that NBA franchises don't see the urgency in tanking but some people on here do?

Losing in the first round isn't really a big deal. As long it's not continually happening.

Its going to continually happen here if our best player is Siakam. We can all agree on that at least. Need a huge jump from Barnes in the next couple of years.

Sort of agree. We either need an actual #1 option or better depth / more reliable shooting.

I think we could get to 2nd round even conference finals with Siakam if the supporting cast was better.

Yeah I agree, I think Pascal with a better supporting cast probably tops out as a competitive 2nd round team. Obviously not good enough but I think he's been unfairly criticized given what he's had to work with. I'm a huge fan of Scottie's potential but a lot of teams dare him to shoot and pack the paint. That's going to make things hard for everyone else. I don't think this roster has the potential to compete for a championship even if Scottie develops into an all-star caliber player. But that doesn't mean they have to gut the team and start tanking. This team can still make moves to improve the roster. It's a lot easier to turn a 2nd round team into a championship contender than it is to turn a team with nothing into one.