Tank World Order V (Rise of the Phoenix)

[OakleyDokely]

Extend injuries? What does that even mean? Does it look like we have been rushing guys back?

We have 4 rookies that were all expected to spend significant time in the G League that are instead averaging between 14-17 mpg. How much more can we play them?

Instead of 10-14 days, extend recovery to 3+ weeks. Instead of 3 weeks, extend to 4-5 weeks. And so on.

Why stop there? Make it season ending for all of them.

But who said they haven't stretched out injuries already?

I'm sure a bunch of guys would've been back sooner if there were meaningful games to be played.

[ItsDanger]

Why stop there? Make it season ending for all of them.

Some people adhere to a professional code of ethics. Others do not.

There's nothing really ethical about sitting out fully healthy players for the purpose of losing games whether it's for 1 week or the entire year.

I don't even know how it can even be argued otherwise that this team isn't already being extra cautious on when players return considering Brown and Olynyk haven't played a single minute and IQ playing 60 mins total. Maybe you're upset about Scottie coming back wearing goggles causing us to win games?

Nothing wrong with being extra cautious with a UCL tear like IQ has, as an example. Downside is really bad. I'm not saying sitting healthy players, just be extra cautious on returning guys. Load manage where appropriate maybe.

[raptorforlife88]

Instead of 10-14 days, extend recovery to 3+ weeks. Instead of 3 weeks, extend to 4-5 weeks. And so on.

IQ has played in three games. Brown and Olynyk in 0 games. Taking a look at some orbital bone injuries, it seems like players usually can make their way back with a mask after 6 or 7 games. Scottie missed another week on top of that. We're hardly rushing guys back here. So not sure what you're talking about.

Also as far as I know (and I may be wrong about this) this year is basically Scottie's shot at making an all-nba team and getting the larger salary out of it. I don't think your franchise player is going to appreciate being unnecessarily held out of games.

[Scase]

“Oh no, the guy we are pining our hopes on is, um, leading us to wins, paired with a 24-year old sidekick. All the young newcomers are contributing. This sucks!”

I’m all in on the tank (if it happens) but if these guys make it to play-in territory due to some extended, unexpected run that is led by Scottie, how can anyone be mad at that?

The issue I have, is that there is nothing impressive, or even promising about making the play in with the current state of the east. A .409 record gets you in the playoffs right now, that is not something promising for the future, that is fools gold.

I don't think they are actively trying to make the play-in as an organizational goal. And I certainly don't want them to start making moves to achieve that. All I'm saying is that we are playing pretty good lately and all if it is fueled by the guys we want to see improvement from. If this organically, and unexpectedly, leads to a lot more wins...that is not a bad thing.

Barnes was pretty pissed at coming out of a close game yesterday, even though it was only going to be for 2 minutes. You start shutting him down later in the season, or asking him to, and he'll be knocking on Riley's door once Jimmy is off the books, IMO. He wants to win.

I think you can achieve both while still keeping him playing, Jak is the lynch pin here.

What is impressive is how competitive we've been against good teams considering how injured we've been. It's not all seen through a single lens of wins in the east.

I'm pretty sure we all stated prior to the start of the season that we expected to pull off wins against better teams early on as that isn't anything new early in the season. Moral victories don't give me hope that the roster will be good, cause we also lost to the hornets and twice to the pistons.

If Scottie and RJ are dragging this team to an above .500 winning record while putting up all NBA level numbers, I will share the optimism, but as of now we lose to bad teams still and all our wins have been against bad or mediocre teams.

And realistically, making the play in a bad east is significantly worse than a high pick for the long term success of the team. If the team is good enough to be play in material, there is still no instance where eating dirt for one year and getting a high pick then being a play in team next year, is a worse outcome than making the play in this year with a mid pick.

I'm here for the long term, not instant gratification wins.

Except, again, we're competitive and pushing the good teams in games that we should be losing by a wide margin.

So we aren't just beating bad teams, we are also challenging good teams and putting up an admirable fight.

Again, we are pushing "good" teams in the early parts of the season which usually doesn't mean much. We all expected to steal a couple wins against good teams early because they haven't hit on all cylinders yet. Lets see how they are competing in Feb/Mar. And our wins are exclusively against bad or middling teams, the only team we beat that wouldn't fit that category are the Wolves, and they are clearly struggling with the roster change.

Being competitive is a moral victory, and it's great for the tank so I'm not complaining. I just don't see it as some indication that this is a good team with a great future. The pistons have a better point diff than us, I'm not singing their praises either. I'm happy to see competitive games, that's enough for me.

[PushDaRock]

Instead of 10-14 days, extend recovery to 3+ weeks. Instead of 3 weeks, extend to 4-5 weeks. And so on.

Why stop there? Make it season ending for all of them.

But who said they haven't stretched out injuries already?

I'm sure a bunch of guys would've been back sooner if there were meaningful games to be played.

This has been exactly the case in my opinion. I have no doubt Brown and Olynyk would have been back already if these games were important like a playoff game. They are already being extra cautious and giving more opportunities to the young players to play.

[raptorforlife88]

Except, again, we're competitive and pushing the good teams in games that we should be losing by a wide margin.

So we aren't just beating bad teams, we are also challenging good teams and putting up an admirable fight.

Again, we are pushing "good" teams in the early parts of the season which usually doesn't mean much. We all expected to steal a couple wins against good teams early because they haven't hit on all cylinders yet. Lets see how they are competing in Feb/Mar. And our wins are exclusively against bad or middling teams, the only team we beat that wouldn't fit that category are the Wolves, and they are clearly struggling with the roster change.

Being competitive is a moral victory, and it's great for the tank so I'm not complaining. I just don't see it as some indication that this is a good team with a great future. The pistons have a better point diff than us, I'm not singing their praises either. I'm happy to see competitive games, that's enough for me.[/quote]

Not arguing the main point, but obviously the comparison with the Pistons doesn't work that well since they've had all of their key players basically for the entire year except for four games Cade has missed. And the Raptors have been one of the most injured teams in the league with injuries to several key starters and rotations pieces. The Pistons would like to be better and have been healthy enough to see what they probably are for now.

[Ell Curry]

Just keep drafting well and doing a good job of asset accumulation. If you don't hit in the draft for a 2nd star, and someone like Gradey doesn't develop into that either. As long as you are hitting on your picks and doing a good job of asset management you position yourself to trade for a star if you need one. Just keep hitting on good young players like we have been.

Good front offices don't leave becoming a contending team up to chance, they position themselves as well as possible to make that happen eventually, the chance only through in the method that it occurs.

That seems likeliest to be the plan, but I would guess the median outcome is being where Indiana or the Kings (tougher conference, but would be in that Pacers-Heat 6-8 seed category) are:

2 very good borderline all star types (Haliburton + Siakam or Fox + Sabonis) and some decent surrounding talent (Turner + Nesmith + Nembhard + Mathurin, or Murray + Monk + DeMar).

Unlikely either team becomes an actual contender. And the Pacers have genuinely good depth, like I would expect the Raptors to develop based on Agbaji, Mogbo and Walter all looking like very promising bench pieces/5th starter types based on their play this year.

It definitely is possible that we can still get a star to pair with Barnes, but I do think the likeliest route is this year's draft, and the best way to get a good pick to raise the odds of that is to tank.

[S.W.A.N]

So we've gone 5-14 to start the year, and you expect us to play at minimum 26-36, which is a .426 win rate. We barely managed that win rate over a full season with a very healthy lineup of FVV/OG/Scottie/Siakam, but you think this lineup can manage it?

I applaud the optimism, but you might want to take a gander at the schedule for rest of the year.

Still questioning my math?

Yup, beating a couple bad teams is not like it wasn't already expected.

Then why are you questioning there ability to beat worse teams later in the year? The last 20 games of our season is a cakewalk.

[Scase]

Attendance at home games has started to finally crack, only 17,741. Still good for most teams but that's lowest in last 2 seasons if I'm not mistaken. Loss of potential business always promotes change.

Anti-tankers lack the patience required to secure a top pick. They want instant gratification which means they want wins right now.

Masai needs to rebuild properly. The headwinds he faces is that some of these other teams aren't very good. The team's W/L is relative to the current competition.

What do you expect Masai to do for them to tank? Trade Scottie? Because he's not injured, and they aren't going to be bottom 5 while he's healthy and playing. They're an above .500 team with him in the lineup.

Saying "Make up an injury" and force him not to play is not an appropriate answer, btw.

Sitting Jak to allow someone like say Chomche to get minutes is an easy way to edge us towards losing without trading or making up injuries. Is Chomche super raw? Yeah, but that's kind of the point.

As much as I'm on board for trading Jak, I don't think it is entirely necessary, limiting minutes is a much easier option. Trading Jak would be a much more long term move.

Not arguing the main point, but obviously the comparison with the Pistons doesn't work that well since they've had all of their key players basically for the entire year except for four games Cade has missed. And the Raptors have been one of the most injured teams in the league with injuries to several key starters and rotations pieces. The Pistons would like to be better and have been healthy enough to see what they probably are for now.

I was a little bit disjointed in my response and could've been clearer

There have been more than a few people arguing that because our diff means we are "better than our record" so I was just using the Pistons as an example. They are rocking a better diff than us, and we lost to them twice, both with and without Cade. Everyone kept saying how they would be much worse than us this year, and we lose to them regardless. They've also beaten better teams than we have in the Lakers and Hawks, healthy or unhealthy we should be beating teams like the Hornets and Pistons if we are better than advertised.

I don't put stock into us being "competitive losers" against good teams. We are competitive yet lose in the last quarter or few minutes all the time, so yeah, until the good teams decide to take the game more seriously we're in it, but it isn't some indication that we are much better than what has been shown.

The garbage dumpster raptors team beat the 72 win bulls, but that wasn't some precursor to the team being good lol. I'm not comparing that team to the current year one, but just being close, or winning games doesn't dictate future success. We had the C's this year within 3 points, by no means does that tell me that we can hang with the C's on a regular basis.

Competitive losses to me are good for the tank, it shows guys are playing hard, and that they care. Also a lot more entertaining to watch, I just won't put stock in them meaning anything, we have been competitive overall this season, with both good teams and bad ones. Doesn't mean much.

[YogurtProducer]

The issue I have, is that there is nothing impressive, or even promising about making the play in with the current state of the east. A .409 record gets you in the playoffs right now, that is not something promising for the future, that is fools gold.

What is impressive is how competitive we've been against good teams considering how injured we've been. It's not all seen through a single lens of wins in the east.

I'm pretty sure we all stated prior to the start of the season that we expected to pull off wins against better teams early on as that isn't anything new early in the season. Moral victories don't give me hope that the roster will be good, cause we also lost to the hornets and twice to the pistons..

Losing to the Hornets and Pistons without Barnes or IQ (or KO or BB), or Pistons x2 in Barnes first game back, really is not indicative of a **** thing. If Barnes plays those games (and is not minute restricted in the other) we probably win all 3. Just a bad faith argument.

[YogurtProducer]

Still questioning my math?

Yup, beating a couple bad teams is not like it wasn't already expected.

Then why are you questioning there ability to beat worse teams later in the year? The last 20 games of our season is a cakewalk.

Scase is all over the place.

Beating teams early in the year doesnt count because it is early.

But in 2023 winning games late in the year doesnt count because it was late.

So what... only games won between Jan and Feb mean anything?

[PushDaRock]

Attendance at home games has started to finally crack, only 17,741. Still good for most teams but that's lowest in last 2 seasons if I'm not mistaken. Loss of potential business always promotes change.

Anti-tankers lack the patience required to secure a top pick. They want instant gratification which means they want wins right now.

Masai needs to rebuild properly. The headwinds he faces is that some of these other teams aren't very good. The team's W/L is relative to the current competition.

What do you expect Masai to do for them to tank? Trade Scottie? Because he's not injured, and they aren't going to be bottom 5 while he's healthy and playing. They're an above .500 team with him in the lineup.

Saying "Make up an injury" and force him not to play is not an appropriate answer, btw.

Sitting Jak to allow someone like say Chomche to get minutes is an easy way to edge us towards losing without trading or making up injuries. Is Chomche super raw? Yeah, but that's kind of the point.

As much as I'm on board for trading Jak, I don't think it is entirely necessary, limiting minutes is a much easier option. Trading Jak would be a much more long term move.

Not arguing the main point, but obviously the comparison with the Pistons doesn't work that well since they've had all of their key players basically for the entire year except for four games Cade has missed. And the Raptors have been one of the most injured teams in the league with injuries to several key starters and rotations pieces. The Pistons would like to be better and have been healthy enough to see what they probably are for now.

I was a little bit disjointed in my response and could've been clearer

There have been more than a few people arguing that because our diff means we are "better than our record" so I was just using the Pistons as an example. They are rocking a better diff than us, and we lost to them twice, both with and without Cade. Everyone kept saying how they would be much worse than us this year, and we lose to them regardless. They've also beaten better teams than we have in the Lakers and Hawks, healthy or unhealthy we should be beating teams like the Hornets and Pistons if we are better than advertised.

I don't put stock into us being "competitive losers" against good teams. We are competitive yet lose in the last quarter or few minutes all the time, so yeah, until the good teams decide to take the game more seriously we're in it, but it isn't some indication that we are much better than what has been shown.

The garbage dumpster raptors team beat the 72 win bulls, but that wasn't some precursor to the team being good lol. I'm not comparing that team to the current year one, but just being close, or winning games doesn't dictate future success. We had the C's this year within 3 points, by no means does that tell me that we can hang with the C's on a regular basis.

Competitive losses to me are good for the tank, it shows guys are playing hard, and that they care. Also a lot more entertaining to watch, I just won't put stock in them meaning anything, we have been competitive overall this season, with both good teams and bad ones. Doesn't mean much.

You can't just gift players minutes in the NBA that aren't ready for them.

I just find it odd that you discredit all our wins as teams not taking us seriously and how they're all mid and NRTG is somehow only relevant for good teams but then also ignore the injuries which obviously have played a significant factor in how the season has gone. Saying stuff like "healthy or not, we should still beat them" makes no sense at all. The Pelicans were a 49 win team last year and now are 4-18 because of their injuries, you think it doesn't matter for them? The Sixers injuries have them at 5-14. Why are our injuries being downplayed when you see the impact they have had on other teams?

[ForeverTFC]

Yup, beating a couple bad teams is not like it wasn't already expected.

Then why are you questioning there ability to beat worse teams later in the year? The last 20 games of our season is a cakewalk.

Scase is all over the place.

Beating teams early in the year doesnt count because it is early.

But in 2023 winning games late in the year doesnt count because it was late.

So what... only games won between Jan and Feb mean anything?

I think he's been very clear tbh. Wins don't count until Scase says so. And it's consistent with his position that only he gets to decide what the required sample size is to judge a players' shooting performance. On brand if you ask me.

[PushDaRock]

Yup, beating a couple bad teams is not like it wasn't already expected.

Then why are you questioning there ability to beat worse teams later in the year? The last 20 games of our season is a cakewalk.

Scase is all over the place.

Beating teams early in the year doesnt count because it is early.

But in 2023 winning games late in the year doesnt count because it was late.

So what... only games won between Jan and Feb mean anything?

Well, that's because stuff only matters when it helps fit his narrative.

[720]

[Duffman100]

Yup, beating a couple bad teams is not like it wasn't already expected.

Then why are you questioning there ability to beat worse teams later in the year? The last 20 games of our season is a cakewalk.

Scase is all over the place.

Beating teams early in the year doesnt count because it is early.

But in 2023 winning games late in the year doesnt count because it was late.

So what... only games won between Jan and Feb mean anything?

Yeah I was busy working and was going to basically post this.

Why do competitive games early on not matter against good team? And they definitely don't count when those teams 'take their foot off the gas' which has been an argument used earlier.

So there is a weird window in the middle of the season when if your team plays well, it matters.

[PhilBlackson]

This sh*t is dead and that's from someone who wants the tank as bad as anyone, but ya'll just in denial.

It's painfully obvious we're closer to being around IND or MIA's level (if not better), than we are WAS or Utah and in a couple of months our record will reflect that and some of you will be claiming it was "fake" when you're just in real denial.

[Duffman100]

This sh*t is dead and that's from someone who wants the tank as bad as anyone, but ya'll just in denial.

It's painfully obvious we're closer to being around IND or MIA's level (if not better), than we are WAS or Utah and in a couple of months our record will reflect that and some of you will be claiming it was "fake" when you're just in real denial.

I think it's more likely we end up in the 7-12 range tbh unless we get some devestating injuries or lucky lottery balls.

[PhilBlackson]

This sh*t is dead and that's from someone who wants the tank as bad as anyone, but ya'll just in denial.

It's painfully obvious we're closer to being around IND or MIA's level (if not better), than we are WAS or Utah and in a couple of months our record will reflect that and some of you will be claiming it was "fake" when you're just in real denial.

I think it's more likely we end up in the 7-12 range tbh unless we get some devestating injuries or lucky lottery balls.

I think 7 is flat out too high...we're already sitting at 6th and we're barely starting to get healthy and still missing our starting guards and a HUGE chunk of our shooting ie/ IQ, Dick & Olynk. That's gonna take us up yet another (substantial) level and of course the schedule slowly will transition to a cake walk ESPECIALLY when all those teams will be trying to out tank each other.

I keep saying it but I don't think we're gonna be in the top 10 personally.

We're easily blowing by POR, so 7 is the absolute high side....then you have CHI & BKN wanting to trade away all their best players, the Pels are already too far out to close the distance to make a Playoff run PLUS Zion has no clear time table to return PLUS Ingram just signed with Klutch *ahem he's ready for his move (most likely back to LAL). Then you have the Glass family *ahem, Ball family -- LaMelo is ALREADY dealing with injuries (AGAIN), good luck with him making through the rest of the season healthy.

That's ELEVENTH right there and we're not even factoring the health of either of Cunningham or Haliburton who are on teams that I'm not convinced (at all) are better than our team when fully healthy. OR of course Embiid (especially) & PG's crappy track record and/or Morey's lack of fear to make bold decisions ie/ tank. Ohhh and a lil ol team in San Antonio that has a long track record of showing no fear resting their players and/or tanking in recent memory to add another high level prospect (or two) with Vic.

I'm sorry to be a broken record but unless the FO trades Yak or blatantly tanks with extremely questionable play calling and/or "resting" players, I have little to no confidence that we'll be in the top 10 personally.

[Scase]

What do you expect Masai to do for them to tank? Trade Scottie? Because he's not injured, and they aren't going to be bottom 5 while he's healthy and playing. They're an above .500 team with him in the lineup.

Saying "Make up an injury" and force him not to play is not an appropriate answer, btw.

Sitting Jak to allow someone like say Chomche to get minutes is an easy way to edge us towards losing without trading or making up injuries. Is Chomche super raw? Yeah, but that's kind of the point.

As much as I'm on board for trading Jak, I don't think it is entirely necessary, limiting minutes is a much easier option. Trading Jak would be a much more long term move.

Not arguing the main point, but obviously the comparison with the Pistons doesn't work that well since they've had all of their key players basically for the entire year except for four games Cade has missed. And the Raptors have been one of the most injured teams in the league with injuries to several key starters and rotations pieces. The Pistons would like to be better and have been healthy enough to see what they probably are for now.

I was a little bit disjointed in my response and could've been clearer

There have been more than a few people arguing that because our diff means we are "better than our record" so I was just using the Pistons as an example. They are rocking a better diff than us, and we lost to them twice, both with and without Cade. Everyone kept saying how they would be much worse than us this year, and we lose to them regardless. They've also beaten better teams than we have in the Lakers and Hawks, healthy or unhealthy we should be beating teams like the Hornets and Pistons if we are better than advertised.

I don't put stock into us being "competitive losers" against good teams. We are competitive yet lose in the last quarter or few minutes all the time, so yeah, until the good teams decide to take the game more seriously we're in it, but it isn't some indication that we are much better than what has been shown.

The garbage dumpster raptors team beat the 72 win bulls, but that wasn't some precursor to the team being good lol. I'm not comparing that team to the current year one, but just being close, or winning games doesn't dictate future success. We had the C's this year within 3 points, by no means does that tell me that we can hang with the C's on a regular basis.

Competitive losses to me are good for the tank, it shows guys are playing hard, and that they care. Also a lot more entertaining to watch, I just won't put stock in them meaning anything, we have been competitive overall this season, with both good teams and bad ones. Doesn't mean much.

You can't just gift players minutes in the NBA that aren't ready for them.

I just find it odd that you discredit all our wins as teams not taking us seriously and how they're all mid and NRTG is somehow only relevant for good teams but then also ignore the injuries which obviously have played a significant factor in how the season has gone. Saying stuff like "healthy or not, we should still beat them" makes no sense at all. The Pelicans were a 49 win team last year and now are 4-18 because of their injuries, you think it doesn't matter for them? The Sixers injuries have them at 5-14. Why are our injuries being downplayed when you see the impact they have had on other teams?

You absolutely can, if the point is to artificially inflate the loss column. Chomche isn't out there because he is NBA ready, but rather because you know the falloff from Jak to him will be big enough that you still get to have RJ/Scottie showing how good or bad they are, while also kneecapping the team at a key position so it doesn't result in too many wins that put you into play in/mediocrity territory. The east is pathetic this year, we need to adjust for that.

Net rating is meaningless (mostly) for this team because it shows a number with no context, sure if we keep the game close for 3 quarters then drop the ball in the 4th then it shows when the game is on the line we will still lose. And that's fine, we're a young team, but it also doesn't mean that because the numbers are close together, that we are "competitive" with those teams.

First game against DEN, it was competitive and went to OT, but we also got outscored in the 3rd, the 4th, and in OT. They had a clear adjustment made after the half where their offence started to pick up, and they had a massive defensive shift in the latter half of the 4th. I will quote this endlessly because it is always relevant

"I think the good teams win even when they play bad, and bad teams always find a way to lose games, even when they’re up." - Nikola Jokic

Being close matters in horseshoes and hand grenades. If you want to ascribe some future success to current competitive losses, be my guest, but I don't see the translation. And as for injuries, every team deals with them, we are not an outlier. Not all injuries are created equal as well, Embiid being out is more impactful than us losing RJ/Scottie/IQ combined. He has missed 15/19 games and PG has missed 9/19 games, both players would immediately and irrefutably be the best players on our teams had they been on the roster. And yet they are only half a game behind us.

NOLA was missing damn near their entire rotation, they were putting out lineups that would have made our end of season rosters from last year, look like true playoff contenders. And so on. RJ has missed 3 games, and Scottie 11, IQ is the biggest impact to our roster from a games missed perspective. I do not believe and will never be convinced that missing players like KO/BB would have any impact on the results of these games. You do not add without taking away from someone else.

But if I replace Embiid with Drummond, yeah that kinda has a pretty big impact. What if IQ was healthy all year, do we get to see Ochai blossom like he has? Does Gradey? You can't pretend that just because our players were injured that immediately means that we would win these close games. Both Gradey and Ochai are playing better basketball this year than IQ did last year, so at best it's probably a wash, maybe we win a couple close losses, but there is no reason to think that the inverse isn't true. Maybe we lose that 3 point win against the heat/kings.

You can't play the what if game, it's pointless, we lost games and we've won games. But acting like picking up wins in the beginning of the season is some predictor of future success is a fools errand. The Spurs won 3 of their first 5 games last year beating a Suns team back to back that went 49-33, they went on to win 19 more games the rest of the season. The rockets won 6 straight in the first 9 games last year, and then 11 straight in the last 20 games, they were 41-41 picking up those 11 wins almost exclusively in the back half against tanking teams. And so on and so on.

I didn't discredit our wins as teams not taking us seriously, I "discredited" them as being almost exclusively against bad teams. I simply don't think that teams like the celtics winning by 3 is any indication that we are anywhere close to their level because we got close in one game, we still lost.