Draft Thread Part 2

[mademan]

Y’all are wild. I’d easily trade any non-Cade pick for towns. It’s a no brainer

Lmao I think anyone who trades Green/Suggs/Mobley for Towns is wild.

It’s honestly insane to me how this continuously happens every year. Prospects are constantly overrated. There’s an outside chance 1 of them maybe becomes as good or better than towns is today. And it’s a crapshoot figuring out which one it’s gonna be at draft time

[Los_29]

If we stay in the 7-9 range my three top picks are 1. Mitchell, 2. Kispert, 3. Giddey, in that order.

Each of those guys brings something that makes us better, and they all look like winners which I always feel gets underrated.

You’d waste the pick on Kispert? Hes basically Joe Harris. Why use a high pick on that

Joe Harris is pretty dang good.

Yeah he's great but in the top half of the lottery you gotta aim a bit higher.

[Los_29]

Y’all are wild. I’d easily trade any non-Cade pick for towns. It’s a no brainer

Lmao I think anyone who trades Green/Suggs/Mobley for Towns is wild.

It’s honestly insane to me how this continuously happens every year. Prospects are constantly overrated. There’s an outside chance 1 of them maybe becomes as good or better than towns is today. And it’s a crapshoot figuring out which one it’s gonna be at draft time

Absolutely, they are overrated way too much on this board. But I wouldn't trade the potential upside of a Green and Suggs for a guy like KAT who has never won in this league and doesn't really have that IT factor. There is obviously a chance that Suggs or Green never become as good as KAT but their potential is far higher. I'll take that chance.

[Dalek]

If we stay at pick seven I think it's going to be either Keon, Davion, Moody, or Wagner. Those aren't necessarily the guys I want but they fit Masai's M.O. out of the group of players likely to be available.

Side bar, Quentin Crimes is an interesting player in the second. He's in the top 10 in both defensive and offensive win shares. Being compared to Josh Hart, who Masai tried to acquire.

I don't think the front office will take Moody or Keon. They don't really have the impact Masai has historically gone for. In fact, I think Keon might slide into the late lottery unless a team wants to gamble on his athleticism. Wagner is intriguing at 7 I think if he's still there.

Any examples? I'm not sure what you mean by impact other than upside.

Who of Jakob, Pascal, Delon, OG, Malachi, Norm fit that criteria?

All of those guys projected to be solid players, not superstars.

Masai's type in his time with the Raptors has been high IQ, high character players, who are excellent defensive players. The guys I listed all meet that criteria.

I strongly think Jaden Springer belongs in that group at seven. He fits all of the characteristics you have highlighted being a strong defender, having a strong IQ and is a high character person. From an analytics side he checks every box from freethrow generation, steal and block percentage, outside shooting numbers. It is almost weird to me that a guy like Jalen Suggs is ranked top five and Springer two tiers lower although they are both comparable.

Here is a couple videos of Springer cooking Suggs a couple years ago (who appears to be playing with Chet Holmgren)

Spoiler:

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[OakleyDokely]

Y’all are wild. I’d easily trade any non-Cade pick for towns. It’s a no brainer

Lmao I think anyone who trades Green/Suggs/Mobley for Towns is wild.

It’s honestly insane to me how this continuously happens every year. Prospects are constantly overrated. There’s an outside chance 1 of them maybe becomes as good or better than towns is today. And it’s a crapshoot figuring out which one it’s gonna be at draft time

Based on history, the top 4 usually falls like this:

1 perennial allstar
1 good player / borderline allstar
1 starter
1 bust

If you can trade any of these picks for Towns you have to seriously consider it. There's no Lebron or Timmy sure thing in this draft.

[Ell Curry]

Y’all are wild. I’d easily trade any non-Cade pick for towns. It’s a no brainer

The complication is that it's probably Towns for the pick, 17M in cap space and another 1st at least. So it's likely Green/Mobley + future 1st + Boucher + 17M/FA for Towns. I think it's still worth doing, but it's possible Masai has someone he wants to target for the 17M he think will break out a la Lowry AND that his team won't match and would take say a couple 2nds as a sweetener no to, like Horton-Tucker, Duncan Robinson or even a less obvious choice like Markannen or Malik Monk.

From Minnesota's perspective, if Golden State gets their pick I think it becomes plausible value-wise since they go from probably having the 7-10th pick next year with Edwards improving and Towns presumably healthy to trading Towns for say Mobley and ensuring a top 3 pick for them which is a significant upgrade in value when you think about that it would probably cost us Van Vleet to move from 7 to #2 or #3 this year is my guess.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Lmao I think anyone who trades Green/Suggs/Mobley for Towns is wild.

It’s honestly insane to me how this continuously happens every year. Prospects are constantly overrated. There’s an outside chance 1 of them maybe becomes as good or better than towns is today. And it’s a crapshoot figuring out which one it’s gonna be at draft time

Based on history, the top 4 usually falls like this:

1 perennial allstar
1 good player / borderline allstar
1 starter
1 bust

If you can trade any of these picks for Towns you have to seriously consider it. There's no Lebron or Timmy sure thing in this draft.

I was just going through stuff like this now, but in general a great draft has 4 all-NBA players (not necessarily first team). A good draft will have 2-3. Most drafts have 1.

[Ell Curry]

Lmao I think anyone who trades Green/Suggs/Mobley for Towns is wild.

It’s honestly insane to me how this continuously happens every year. Prospects are constantly overrated. There’s an outside chance 1 of them maybe becomes as good or better than towns is today. And it’s a crapshoot figuring out which one it’s gonna be at draft time

Based on history, the top 4 usually falls like this:

1 perennial allstar
1 good player / borderline allstar
1 starter
1 bust

If you can trade any of these picks for Towns you have to seriously consider it. There's no Lebron or Timmy sure thing in this draft.

I think I'd rather have Cade and the 15M in cap space to spend on a young big we like because VanVleet-Cade-OG-Siakam just seems like the future of the NBA the way it's going with a ton of size and speed and skill on the wings and Flynn and Trent playing lots of minutes with OG and Cade very comfortable sliding up a spot positionally.

We could use the 15M in space to take back Lowry contracts in a sign and trade or just sign someone Masai likes in his mid 20s.

[Jerry Lucas]

Y’all are wild. I’d easily trade any non-Cade pick for towns. It’s a no brainer

Lmao I think anyone who trades Green/Suggs/Mobley for Towns is wild.

It’s honestly insane to me how this continuously happens every year. Prospects are constantly overrated. There’s an outside chance 1 of them maybe becomes as good or better than towns is today. And it’s a crapshoot figuring out which one it’s gonna be at draft time

I don't say this every year. IMO this is the most top heavy draft since 2016 when my top 5 draft board was 1 Ingram, 2 Murray, 3 Brown, 4 Hield, 5 Simmons. Wasn't on RealGM at the time so I only have it written down on a piece of paper, but I haven't been this high on the top of a draft class since then. I wouldn't be surprised if 2021 ends up better than 2016.

[Bruin]

If we stay in the 7-9 range my three top picks are 1. Mitchell, 2. Kispert, 3. Giddey, in that order.

Each of those guys brings something that makes us better, and they all look like winners which I always feel gets underrated.

You’d waste the pick on Kispert? Hes basically Joe Harris. Why use a high pick on that

Joe Harris is pretty dang good.

If we were drafting mid 1st round sure. But at 7 we should be trying to get a game changer

[mademan]

Lmao I think anyone who trades Green/Suggs/Mobley for Towns is wild.

It’s honestly insane to me how this continuously happens every year. Prospects are constantly overrated. There’s an outside chance 1 of them maybe becomes as good or better than towns is today. And it’s a crapshoot figuring out which one it’s gonna be at draft time

I don't say this every year. IMO this is the most top heavy draft since 2016 when my top 5 draft board was 1 Ingram, 2 Murray, 3 Brown, 4 Hield, 5 Simmons. Wasn't on RealGM at the time so I only have it written down on a piece of paper, but I haven't been this high on the top of a draft class since then. I wouldn't be surprised if 2021 ends up better than 2016.

Even that draft doesn’t have a player as good as towns.

Family guy really found something with that mystery box skit.

[gojoorange]

If we stay at pick seven I think it's going to be either Keon, Davion, Moody, or Wagner. Those aren't necessarily the guys I want but they fit Masai's M.O. out of the group of players likely to be available.

Side bar, Quentin Crimes is an interesting player in the second. He's in the top 10 in both defensive and offensive win shares. Being compared to Josh Hart, who Masai tried to acquire.

I don't think the front office will take Moody or Keon. They don't really have the impact Masai has historically gone for. In fact, I think Keon might slide into the late lottery unless a team wants to gamble on his athleticism. Wagner is intriguing at 7 I think if he's still there.

Any examples? I'm not sure what you mean by impact other than upside.

Who of Jakob, Pascal, Delon, OG, Malachi, Norm fit that criteria?

All of those guys projected to be solid players, not superstars.

Masai's type in his time with the Raptors has been high IQ, high character players, who are excellent defensive players. The guys I listed all meet that criteria.

What are you seeing that suggests Keon Johnson or Moses Moody can be NBA superstars?

Other than the 2014 draft, these are the advanced stats for Masai's first round picks.


Malachi
PER - 27.7
WS/40 - .277
ORTG - 124.5
DRTG - 90.3
BPM - 11.7

OG
PER - 23.8
WS/40 - .169
ORTG - 118.5
DRTG - 99.4
BPM - 10.1

Jakob
PER - 31.1
WS/40 - .249
ORTG - 128.8
DRTG - 98.5
BPM - 11.2

Pascal
PER - 31.5
WS/40 - .265
ORTG - 119.6
DRTG - 86.7
BPM - 8.0

Delon
PER - 29.2
WS/40 - .288
ORTG - 129.8
DRTG - 87.7
BPM - 16.2


For comparison:

Keon Johnson
PER - 16.3
WS/40 - .122
ORTG - 97.7
DRTG - 94.5
BPM - 4.1

Moses Moody
PER - 20.4
WS/40 - .192
ORTG - 119.5
DRTG - 98.1
BPM - 7.4


Regardless of how you perceive these stats in a vacuum, there isn't much argument against the value of our previous picks being extremely high. There is an obvious trend in the way the Raps scouting values prospects. It would be highly unusual for the organization to select Keon Johnson with our highest draft pick in Masai's tenure, while he has the worst advanced stats of any player outside of Bruno. The goal should always be to draft BPA and figure out the fit later. Orgs that have gone draft hunting for superstars routinely fail.

Keon would be an absolute flier at our pick. Honestly Jaden Springer is probably a better value pick if you are set on a guy from Tennessee.

Perhaps an argument can be made for Moody as a freshman but his numbers and profile are eerily similar to Stanley Johnson. Stanley's biggest problems have been expectations and IQ. Maybe Moody separates himself in those aspects. Either way, I don't see superstar in any capacity.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Yall are crazy to pass on Keon because of his shot lol. You can't teach athleticism or wingspan or instill a willingness to score. There is a lot more evidence that a shot can be improved once you get to the NBA level and get with shooting coaches.

OG came into the draft a terrible shooter. Shot 56% from the FT in college and was a 31% 3PT shooter with a bad jumpshot. Now he shoots 79% from the FT line and is a 40% 3PT shooter on high volume 3 years later. Were you envisioning that year one?

Only person I'm taking ahead of him outside of the top 4 is Kuminga if somehow the Barnes hype gets to the Magic

[mademan]

Lmao I think anyone who trades Green/Suggs/Mobley for Towns is wild.

It’s honestly insane to me how this continuously happens every year. Prospects are constantly overrated. There’s an outside chance 1 of them maybe becomes as good or better than towns is today. And it’s a crapshoot figuring out which one it’s gonna be at draft time

Absolutely, they are overrated way too much on this board. But I wouldn't trade the potential upside of a Green and Suggs for a guy like KAT who has never won in this league and doesn't really have that IT factor. There is obviously a chance that Suggs or Green never become as good as KAT but their potential is far higher. I'll take that chance.

People aren’t winners till they win. Towns as our starting center last year would the best player on a contender.

[OakleyDokely]

Lmao I think anyone who trades Green/Suggs/Mobley for Towns is wild.

It’s honestly insane to me how this continuously happens every year. Prospects are constantly overrated. There’s an outside chance 1 of them maybe becomes as good or better than towns is today. And it’s a crapshoot figuring out which one it’s gonna be at draft time

I don't say this every year. IMO this is the most top heavy draft since 2016 when my top 5 draft board was 1 Ingram, 2 Murray, 3 Brown, 4 Hield, 5 Simmons. Wasn't on RealGM at the time so I only have it written down on a piece of paper, but I haven't been this high on the top of a draft class since then. I wouldn't be surprised if 2021 ends up better than 2016.

The top of the 2016 looks a little overrrated now though no?

Who in that draft ended up better than Towns?

[RapsFanInOhio]

My personal board as of right now:
Cunningham
Mobley - moved him back in front of Green. His defense is really good
Green - better fit for this roster than Suggs
Suggs - his ceiling seems limited to me moreso than the others above him
Kuminga - I think we miss out on him no matter what because of how the draft falls
Moses Moody - for us, I’m taking the chance on a big wing scorer.
Giddey - the athleticism and shooting are huge question marks but he’s big and the playmaking will translate
Barnes - If he could shoot, he would be ahead of Kuminga
Keon Johnson - could rise based on his measurables. Is the shot broken?
Kispert - He could rise on our boards. Can he play SG? Probably with OG and Siakam. Think we probably have him lower but if he can play passable defense I wouldn’t mind this at all.
Jalen Johnson - Can the 3 translate?

I’m not high on Bouknight or Mann but they could both rise depending on measurables.

I would take Mann and Bouknight over both Johnsons, Kispert, Barnes and Giddey. Their offensive upsides as go to scorers are way too high to pass on for size, whereas a lot of the bigger guys on your draft board do not possess this upside. And unlike guys like Cam Thomas whose major defensive problems are real concerns, Mann and Bouknight's minor defensive issues are more about consistency which can easily be fixed.

I think they’re comparable - Bouknight seems more athletic and Mann the better shooter (with ironically slightly worse form). To me it comes down to size. If you’re 6’3” / 6’4”, you better be super crafty with the ball and / or can shoot it lights out ala Curry / Dame. I think both of them are probably in that range, but I’m not sold on them ever shooting at a high enough clip from three to really be more than higher end rotation players. I think Moody is bigger than both of them, and it’s a little easier to get your shot off when you’re 6’6” because you’re shooting over some guys or have the length that makes a big difference. Don’t get me wrong, I like both of them. But in the top 10 I’m wanting to take a shot at a guy who has superstar potential and I don’t think either of them are that.

Again, that could change. If they’re 6’5” / 6’6” or are super lengthy that’s a different story.

[Jerry Lucas]

Lmao I think anyone who trades Green/Suggs/Mobley for Towns is wild.

It’s honestly insane to me how this continuously happens every year. Prospects are constantly overrated. There’s an outside chance 1 of them maybe becomes as good or better than towns is today. And it’s a crapshoot figuring out which one it’s gonna be at draft time

Based on history, the top 4 usually falls like this:

1 perennial allstar
1 good player / borderline allstar
1 starter
1 bust

If you can trade any of these picks for Towns you have to seriously consider it. There's no Lebron or Timmy sure thing in this draft.

Jamal Murray technically qualifies as a borderline all star as he hasn't made an all star game or team yet but I take a player like him over KAT 10/10 times.

[Jerry Lucas]

My personal board as of right now:
Cunningham
Mobley - moved him back in front of Green. His defense is really good
Green - better fit for this roster than Suggs
Suggs - his ceiling seems limited to me moreso than the others above him
Kuminga - I think we miss out on him no matter what because of how the draft falls
Moses Moody - for us, I’m taking the chance on a big wing scorer.
Giddey - the athleticism and shooting are huge question marks but he’s big and the playmaking will translate
Barnes - If he could shoot, he would be ahead of Kuminga
Keon Johnson - could rise based on his measurables. Is the shot broken?
Kispert - He could rise on our boards. Can he play SG? Probably with OG and Siakam. Think we probably have him lower but if he can play passable defense I wouldn’t mind this at all.
Jalen Johnson - Can the 3 translate?

I’m not high on Bouknight or Mann but they could both rise depending on measurables.

I would take Mann and Bouknight over both Johnsons, Kispert, Barnes and Giddey. Their offensive upsides as go to scorers are way too high to pass on for size, whereas a lot of the bigger guys on your draft board do not possess this upside. And unlike guys like Cam Thomas whose major defensive problems are real concerns, Mann and Bouknight's minor defensive issues are more about consistency which can easily be fixed.

I think they’re comparable - Bouknight seems more athletic and Mann the better shooter (with ironically slightly worse form). To me it comes down to size. If you’re 6’3” / 6’4”, you better be super crafty with the ball and / or can shoot it lights out ala Curry / Dame. I think both of them are probably in that range, but I’m not sold on them ever shooting at a high enough clip from three to really be more than higher end rotation players. I think Moody is bigger than both of them, and it’s a little easier to get your shot off when you’re 6’6” because you’re shooting over some guys or have the length that makes a big difference. Don’t get me wrong, I like both of them. But in the top 10 I’m wanting to take a shot at a guy who has superstar potential and I don’t think either of them are that.

Again, that could change. If they’re 6’5” / 6’6” or are super lengthy that’s a different story.

Bouknight and Mann are both currently listed as 6'5 and I believe they will both measure around there at the combine. It's hard to see anyone outside the top 5 have superstar potential it's rare that you hit big like that, but I firmly believe Tre Mann specifically has that potential. I like Bouknight as well but there are bigger advocates for him than me.

[Jadoogar]

You’d waste the pick on Kispert? Hes basically Joe Harris. Why use a high pick on that

Joe Harris is pretty dang good.

Yeah he's great but in the top half of the lottery you gotta aim a bit higher.

I'm not advocating for Kispert but most of the top 10 will bust. I know everyone likes high potential but sometimes it can be smart to take someone who has a high floor, worst case, Kispert is going to be a good shooter.

[RapsFanInOhio]

Yall are crazy to pass on Keon because of his shot lol. You can't teach athleticism or wingspan or instill a willingness to score. There is a lot more evidence that a shot can be improved once you get to the NBA level and get with shooting coaches.

OG came into the draft a terrible shooter. Shot 56% from the FT in college and was a 31% 3PT shooter with a bad jumpshot. Now he shoots 79% from the FT line and is a 40% 3PT shooter on high volume 3 years later. Were you envisioning that year one?

Only person I'm taking ahead of him outside of the top 4 is Kuminga if somehow the Barnes hype gets to the Magic

Keon is another example of the size thing. If he’s 6’6” / 6’7”, you can deal with working with that kind of shooting because he has the length to make up for it in other ways even if the shooting pans out. If he’s 6’4” or 6’3” and he can’t shoot, your upside is so limited.

The issue or risk with drafting any player than can’t shoot is that their upside is naturally limited unless they’re a next level type of worker.